(02-24-2016 10:42 AM)JSA Wrote:  

(02-24-2016 09:36 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  Trump got more than Rubio and Cruz *combined*...

I was sure he would be out of the race by now, so I make no claims to know how this is all going to end up...

I've quit predicting.

Trump appears to have won in Nevada across most demographic groups.

Someone on NPR pointed out that Ventura and Schwarzenegger were supposed to be flashes in the pan, too.

What Trump has on his website is Confident, Efficient and to the point.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/


U.S.-China Trade Reform
Veterans Administration Reforms
Tax Reform
Second Amendment Rights
Immigration Reform


When you go to the issues soundbite videos and blurbs on Trump's site, I agree with what little he said there as well, on all of it.


I'm voting for Rubio on Tuesday, to knock Cruz the scumbag out of the race. But I can live with Trump. At least he'll address and get somethings done about problems both sides have been kicking into the future for over 40 years, kind of like a univerisity did to get down to where it is.

Saw these on another poster's sig. So, so true.



Think I'll join AAAAAH! to stop all that needless Hammer killing.

I'll vote in democrat primary to vote for Hillary against Bernie. Until Bernie is out of it, I think stopping him is the most important thing we can accomplish. After that, I'll vote libertarian in the general.

Except for Bernie, I really don't think there's a dime's worth of difference among the rest. If Hillary could be the second coming of Bill (which I doubt, but don't rule out), she would be better than several of the republicans. In any event, I think Hillary is closer to any republican than she is to Berne--and that difference is not favorable for Bernie IMO.

I don't think Bernie has a chance unless Hillary is in jail basically. He just won't be able to make any inroads with the minority vote. The only thing I agree with him is something should be done about college tuition costs. I'm not saying they should be free, but I'd like to see pressure to force public (and private if possible) universities to use some of their endowment to lower tuition costs (two middle schoolers here in my family so this subject is important to me). I also agree with him that college today is comparable in many ways to high school 80-100 years ago.

I'm voting Friday for Kasich. Now I just have to figure out which one of the 2000 judges I have to vote for....

R debate tonight (25th) at UH.

(02-25-2016 09:12 AM)grol Wrote:  R debate tonight (25th) at UH.

Bill James on the Trump, interesting take on the current situation: Sabermetrics v. the Donald

That is an interesting read. Thanks for posting it. Way more on point than what most political writers have said about Trump

To get a little more academic about all of these upcoming votes (through 3/15), but Sabato's shop lays out the landscape in every state and territory voting, how many delegates are available, how they're allocated, and demographics that might play a role.

Republican: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystal...-of-march/
Democrat: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystal...-part-two/

Gotta figure out how I'm voting come Tuesday.

The Democratic race has become fairly simple. Barring a major disaster (like being caught in bed with a dead woman), Hillary Clinton will be the nominee. While Bernie Sanders will eventually pile up a significant number of delegates, thanks to Clinton's likely huge edge in superdelegates (established by the Democratic Party precisely to keep someone like Sanders from the nomination) and Sanders's relative weakness outside the Northeast and Midwest, it's unlikely he'll overcome Clinton's current delegate lead.

The Republican race is clarifying. Right now, Donald Trump is in the best position, having the delegate and being competitive, if not leading, in many of the remaining states. He still isn't getting a majority of the vote, but he's been getting enough of a plurality to continue putting distance between himself and the only two candidates who can catch him, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. Jeb Bush's suspension of his campaign probably helps Rubio the most, but the question at this point is whether that can be enough to overhaul Trump's lead. John Kasich and Ben Carson are dead men walking and are in this race now only to be spoilers or kingmakers. I suspect some of their support will drain away as some of their supporters decide they'll vote for candidates who actually have a chance to win. The erosion of support for Kasich will probably help Rubio the most, and Carson's support likely will drift to Cruz. Therefore, expect to see Cruz and Rubio close in on Trump. However, Trump's lead may be such at this point that, unless Cruz and/or Rubio can make significant inroads in the delegate count of the March 1 primaries, by mid-March the race may be effectively over.

Interesting article on game theory and the presidential field

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/upshot...&te=1&_r=0

Christie just endorsed Trump. (?!??!)

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/26/politics/c...index.html

I'll vote for Kasich in primary and then Hillary in the general election (assuming that my Kasich vote is meaningless and continues to enable Trump to capture the Republican nomination). Trump is beyond moronic.

(02-26-2016 02:06 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  Christie just endorsed Trump. (?!??!)

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/26/politics/c...index.html

Also, too:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/de...ent-120592

I voted for Hillary today. Meant punting the local elections, since democrats are an endangered species in Montgomery County, but I felt that the most important thing I could do with my vote is to vote against Bernie.

I will vote libertarian in the general. There's probably no combination of republican and democrat that could put Texas into doubt, and this is one election that IMO is badly in need of protest votes.

I am going to steal a line I saw and liked. I'm not a republican, I'm an anti-democrat.

Vote Pinestraw 2016.



Don't know if others can view this. Let me know if not, and I'll delete it.

(02-26-2016 02:06 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  Christie just endorsed Trump. (?!??!)

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/26/politics/c...index.html

Christie's hatred for Rubio must run deep.

(02-26-2016 11:40 PM)ausowl Wrote:  

(02-26-2016 02:06 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  Christie just endorsed Trump. (?!??!)

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/26/politics/c...index.html

Christie's hatred for Rubio must run deep.

That was my first thought...

You know, I would have thought that even in a Republican primary, quoting fascist dictators was an obvious no-no and disavowing the KKK was a no-brainer.

Wonder if Trump has finally crossed the line. Guess we'll find out Tuesday.

It won't matter to his core supporters. They've ignored every other disreputable manifestation to date.

It's interesting to me who I've gotten calls from leading up to the primary tomorrow. I've had messages advocating Rubio, Trump, and Carson. But no Cruz. And neither Bernie nor Hillary, even though I've voted in their primary before (Virginia is an open primary state) and have received calls to support Democrats in other elections.

The one that surprises me is Cruz - he's the one that's supposed to have the advanced data analytics. I live in a highly Republican county (70%+ in most elections), I always vote, and would seemingly be someone that they might want to target. Maybe their analytics say I'm not their type of supporter (because I've voted in a Democratic primary?), but doesn't make sense. I'm guessing cash flow and fundraising could start to be a problem if they're not trying to get the vote out around here.

It will definitely be interesting to see how the various vote totals play out tomorrow.

(02-29-2016 08:36 PM)gsloth Wrote:  It won't matter to his core supporters. They've ignored every other disreputable manifestation to date.

It's interesting to me who I've gotten calls from leading up to the primary tomorrow. I've had messages advocating Rubio, Trump, and Carson. But no Cruz. And neither Bernie nor Hillary, even though I've voted in their primary before (Virginia is an open primary state) and have received calls to support Democrats in other elections.

The one that surprises me is Cruz - he's the one that's supposed to have the advanced data analytics. I live in a highly Republican county (70%+ in most elections), I always vote, and would seemingly be someone that they might want to target. Maybe their analytics say I'm not their type of supporter (because I've voted in a Democratic primary?), but doesn't make sense. I'm guessing cash flow and fundraising could start to be a problem if they're not trying to get the vote out around here.

It will definitely be interesting to see how the various vote totals play out tomorrow.

Five thirty-eight has Cruz with a 1% chance to win VA - maybe he just wrote it off.