This matchup of teams lucky enough to spend Christmas in Hawaii looks to be a good one on paper. Massey has SDSU at #48, Cincy at #53, and both have good football traditions.

The oddsmakers like Cincy by around 3 points. It's a testament to how weak the MWC was this year and how strong the AAC was that the sixth-place AAC team is favored to beat the MWC Champion. But the qualitative talk seems to favor SDSU: After some early stumbles, SDSU has been on a tear, they haven't lost a game in three months, ripping off nine in a row. In contrast, Cincy has stumbled down the stretch, losing two of their last four, with their fan base down on their coach and season. They seem to be going through the motions.

Still, in this case, I side with the bookies. A closer look shows that Cincy has some very respectable losses. Yes, they ran into USF's late-season buzzsaw, but also dropped extremely close decisions to Houston and Memphis, games they could/should have won. In contrast, SDSU has feasted on a really bad MWC schedule, and didn't face Boise. I know nine straight wins is nine straight wins, but the competition was really soft.

As for motivation, I see SDSU as being happy with their MWC trophy, while Cincy has something to prove and the scalp of another G5 champ is a way to prove it.

I know Cincy doesn't have any real quality wins either, so with a three-loss disparity in favor of SDSU, I rest my case on SOS and specifically, conference strength. I'm not generally an AAC homer, but in this case ....

Cincinnati 40
San Diego State 20

I said this on the AAC board: you're an idiot if you pick Cincinnati to win this game.

SDSU has been improving all season long, UC is limping into this game. Add to that the fact that UC has under-performed in bowl games the past two years and HC Tommy Tuberville openly says that the bowl games are a "reward" for the past season and treats them like a vacation he won on "Pig-in-a-Poke" and you have a recipe for a total blow-out.

If history is any indication, it won't be even close.

(12-24-2015 07:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  This matchup of teams lucky enough to spend Christmas in Hawaii looks to be a good one on paper. Massey has SDSU at #48, Cincy at #53, and both have good football traditions.

The oddsmakers like Cincy by around 3 points. It's a testament to how weak the MWC was this year and how strong the AAC was that the sixth-place AAC team is favored to beat the MWC Champion. But the qualitative talk seems to favor SDSU: After some early stumbles, SDSU has been on a tear, they haven't lost a game in three months, ripping off nine in a row. In contrast, Cincy has stumbled down the stretch, losing two of their last four, with their fan base down on their coach and season. They seem to be going through the motions.

Still, in this case, I side with the bookies. A closer look shows that Cincy has some very respectable losses. Yes, they ran into USF's late-season buzzsaw, but also dropped extremely close decisions to Houston and Memphis, games they could/should have won. In contrast, SDSU has feasted on a really bad MWC schedule, and didn't face Boise. I know nine straight wins is nine straight wins, but the competition was really soft.

As for motivation, I see SDSU as being happy with their MWC trophy, while Cincy has something to prove and the scalp of another G5 champ is a way to prove it.

I know Cincy doesn't have any real quality wins either, so with a three-loss disparity in favor of SDSU, I rest my case on SOS and specifically, conference strength. I'm not generally an AAC homer, but in this case ....

Cincinnati 40
San Diego State 20

Turnovers, same for the Temple game. We had 5 and Temple opened the second half with an on side kick that worked, so in essence 6 turnovers. If UC turnover margin was same as Houston or SDSU then UC would be 12-1 playing FSU in Atlanta.

SDSU is #1 in the country in Turnover margin and UC has the 4th worst at -19?

Just to point out, Starting QB Gunner Kiel is out and the defense is starting 5 true freshmen.

(12-24-2015 09:44 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Just to point out, Starting QB Gunner Kiel is out and the defense is starting 5 true freshmen.

Your backup QB is no slouch. Quo is right that Cincy came within a close call of beating Memphis.

(12-24-2015 10:33 AM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  

(12-24-2015 09:44 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Just to point out, Starting QB Gunner Kiel is out and the defense is starting 5 true freshmen.

Your backup QB is no slouch. Quo is right that Cincy came within a close call of beating Memphis.

I appreciate your point and I will not take anything away from either Memphis or Temple. The only modifier I will add to that is that both Temple and Memphis were relatively early in the season. UC played better early in the season.

There are many factors to this...many of them are nobody's fault in particular:
-UC really was hit with injuries as the season wore on.
-UC seemed to play with a sense of urgency (such as it was...) early in the season, but conference losses to Temple and Memphis ended title hopes quickly.
-Some teams develop discipline and precision as the season wears on, UC seems to degenerate and get sloppier as the season progresses.

The point being, the team that "lost a close game to Memphis" (in week 4?) is not necessarily the team that is in the bowl game.

(12-24-2015 09:11 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  I said this on the AAC board: you're an idiot if you pick Cincinnati to win this game.

SDSU has been improving all season long, UC is limping into this game. Add to that the fact that UC has under-performed in bowl games the past two years and HC Tommy Tuberville openly says that the bowl games are a "reward" for the past season and treats them like a vacation he won on "Pig-in-a-Poke" and you have a recipe for a total blow-out.

If history is any indication, it won't be even close.

Well, I guess we shall see.

(12-24-2015 11:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-24-2015 09:11 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  I said this on the AAC board: you're an idiot if you pick Cincinnati to win this game.

SDSU has been improving all season long, UC is limping into this game. Add to that the fact that UC has under-performed in bowl games the past two years and HC Tommy Tuberville openly says that the bowl games are a "reward" for the past season and treats them like a vacation he won on "Pig-in-a-Poke" and you have a recipe for a total blow-out.

If history is any indication, it won't be even close.

Well, I guess we shall see.

Yup. We sure will.

For the life of me, I cannot figure out why some of you won't listen to the people who have WATCHED this program over the decades... But a fool and his money are easily parted.

So far, San Diego State seems to be blowing Cincinnati out of the water. 21-0 in favor of the Aztecs.

This is my fault. Every team I'm a fan of craps the bed. Watch the Buckeyes lose to TTISB... god I'll just die

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(12-24-2015 09:44 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Just to point out, Starting QB Gunner Kiel is out and the defense is starting 5 true freshmen.

SDSU also playing with their backup QB.

(12-24-2015 09:38 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  This is my fault. Every team I'm a fan of craps the bed. Watch the Buckeyes lose to TTISB... god I'll just die

Is your name "Tommy Tuberville"?
Then this is not your fault.

Seriously, someone needs to go over to Tubb's house and pop a deuce in his pool. That seemed to work for Louisville with Kragthorpe.

One of my favorite Christmas traditions is watching the Hawaii Bowl after Christmas Eve services.

(12-24-2015 09:53 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  One of my favorite Christmas traditions is watching the Hawaii Bowl after Christmas Eve services.

It's become a nice Christmas Eve tradition for me too. Started doing it 7-8 years ago, when Notre Dame played Hawaii. Since then, it's been on my radar screen every December 24th

Well, Cincy is going to win the second half 40-0 for my prediction to come true.

Do not underestimate the MWC. They were never weak to begin with which I have been telling you guys in the regular season.

San Diego State 42
Cincinnati 0

It have become a big blow out.

(12-24-2015 10:02 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Do not underestimate the MWC. They were never weak to begin with which I have been telling you guys in the regular season.

Your Mountain West support has been correct so far. Props.

(12-24-2015 10:54 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  San Diego State 42
Cincinnati 0

It have become a big blow out.

Well, Quo... How'd you like them apples?

(12-24-2015 09:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-24-2015 09:53 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  One of my favorite Christmas traditions is watching the Hawaii Bowl after Christmas Eve services.

It's become a nice Christmas Eve tradition for me too. Started doing it 7-8 years ago, when Notre Dame played Hawaii. Since then, it's been on my radar screen every December 24th

My son was working with the southern miss training staff in 11 when we went. He had the time of his life out there. They had a private boat tour of pearl harbor and lunch at the arizona memorial. It was special for him to spend some time where his grandfather was stationed.