JRsec
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RE: Time, Monetary Disparity, Pressure, and No Brokering Equals Unexpected Consequences
(12-19-2015 12:28 PM)CintiFan Wrote: (12-19-2015 10:18 AM)JRsec Wrote: (12-19-2015 09:45 AM)MplsBison Wrote: (12-19-2015 06:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (12-19-2015 01:33 AM)CintiFan Wrote: I think the SEC adds two and stays at 16, with the SEC's top targets being Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State and Duke. They all check the added geography and academic boxes and provide additional cannon fodder for the SEC football schools. And if the ACC breaks apart, they will get two of them.
I think Oklahoma is a tier 2 possibility because it helps bolster the SEC's presence in Texas, but if two of the others are available, I think the SEC passes.
Notre Dame may also be a possibility but an unlikely one. The lack of say status, and more importantly Notre Dame's lack of graduate level, nationally recognized STEM research programs, means the only reasons the B1G would add Notre Dame would be to restore historic rivalries or gain Notre Dame's nationwide fanbase. Those reasons might be enough to get Notre Dame a spot, but I don't think they want one.
The SEC would take Oklahoma over NC State or VT in a nano-second. No comparison among those schools, Oklahoma is a flagship and blue-chip football brand.
The B1G would take Notre Dame in one as well. Everyone would. Even academically, Notre Dame enhances any conference's profile, it doesn't harm it.
Of course -- as always is the case -- that depends on what you mean by "academics", the ever-loaded word of our message board times.
If meant by reputation rankings of "general undergraduate education" and APR, then yes absolutely Notre Dame would enhance any P5.
But if meant by research, then not necessarily.
And agree 100% that SEC would take Oklahoma. That gives them a very neat, very competitive, very lucrative group of four out in the Tex-La-Ark-A.
Yeah, so many of the discussions are conquest scenarios. The question that should frame Big 10 and SEC realignment scenarios is "Which schools complete our existing footprints?"
It could be argued that certain combinations of two would do that for either conference.
For the SEC: Oklahoma & Texas, Oklahoma & Florida State, a North Carolina and a Virginia state school.
OU and Texas would finish off two divisions with ample contenders and break down as a very solid East vs West in the SEC as Alabama and Auburn would likely shift East.
Oklahoma and Florida State would give the SEC even greater control over the Florida and Texas regions, two brands, and tremendous content value. F.S.U. and an Auburn moving East would help to re-balance the divisions. North Carolina and Virginia as states complete the gap in the footprint.
For the Big 10: A Virginia and a North Carolina state school, Kansas & Oklahoma, Kansas & Missouri, Kansas & Notre Dame, or Notre Dame & Syracuse
If East Coast markets are still the desire then adding UNC & UVa to go with Maryland is their home run. Notre Dame and Syracuse would be a nice fallback if the former wasn't obtainable. If re-balancing their conference geographically is a goal then any combination of Kansas (OU, Missouri, N.D.) gets it done.
Also, while N.D. isn't likely, if there is further consolidation they will run out of options and have to pick a home. Access to the playoffs, academics and money are going to matter in that decision.
If the SEC and Big 10 don't get greedy and stick to two adds each they should be able to cooperate to some extent on their objectives. They may even be able to cooperate to some degree if they both want four.
I can't imagine the Big 10 being unhappy with Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and N.D. That's 4 national brands and superlative academics when the 4 are looked at as a whole. It solidly gives them the Northeast and the Mid Atlantic markets.
I can't imagine the SEC being unhappy with Oklahoma, Florida State, Clemson and Texas. That's three national brands and the two most SEC like schools from the ACC. It clearly gives the SEC dominance within it's total footprint and adds tremendous content value. And remember that Clemson and Florida State in an expanded SEC would both be well north of the 100m club's bottom line.
What happens after the Big 10 and SEC get what they want doesn't really matter. Brand solidification will have taken place, realignment as it pertains to the most valuable properties would be over, and should the two conferences then agree to more bowl pairings and cross conference play in all sports it will only set up natural rivalries that profit both.
BTW: In 1991 the big plan (which didn't come to fruition) was to expand to 16 by adding Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Clemson & Florida State. If the SEC moved to 18 with Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Florida State it would merely be a fulfillment of aspirations that were set almost 25 years ago. Missouri and South Carolina would merely be beneficiaries of the delay.
The big unknown is how big the SEC and B1G want to get. At some point the conference gets too large and loses its identity and cohesiveness. The B1G has already given signals that it would go past 16, but I don't think the SEC has yet.
The other big unknown is how the SEC, B1G, PAC, ESPN and Fox see the future - 3 super conferences or 4. Preserving 4 means more limited expansion by the B1G and in that scenario, take your pick about which of the ACC or Big 12 gets carved up.
Identity is kind of the point I was trying to make with either just two, or possibly 4. In each case the 4 listed actually solidifies the new conference boundaries and blends well enough culturally not to alter either the Big 10 or SEC.
Big 10 East:
Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Penn State, Virginia
Big 10 Central:
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Big 10 West:
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
SEC East:
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
SEC Central:
Alabama, Florida State, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
SEC West:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2015 12:46 PM by JRsec.)
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