I'm hearing people on this board talk about us possibly stealing big market programs without consistent football success from the supposed 'power' conferences.

Is there something to this delusion?

No because between playoff and tv money we are 40 million behind even the worst p5 program

Unless the AAC has somehow managed to get P5 money to offer other schools I don't think it will ever happen.

A lot of weird stuff has happened in the realignment wars over the past 12-13 years. But if programs voluntarily leave the ACC, B1G, or the SEC to join the AAC, that would be weirder than anything that's happened so far.

NO

of course, who wouldn't want to lose access to the playoffs and at least 15 million in guaranteed money per year?

(12-17-2015 11:16 AM)TampaKnight Wrote:  Is there something to this delusion?

Extra delusion.

Probably stems from the belief that the P5 will cut off some stragglers. Wake, Purdue, Iowa State, etc. aren't doing much for the bottom-line. I find this a low probability event though.

Or the Big 12 castaways, once OU leads another exodus... Having been left behind when the SWC imploded, I've seen the death of a brand. Supernova

(12-17-2015 11:41 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  Or the Big 12 castaways, once OU leads another exodus... Having been left behind when the SWC imploded, I've seen the death of a brand. Supernova

That probably leads to the remaining B12 schools inviting the top of the AAC and maybe the top of the MWC and BYU.

(12-17-2015 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 11:41 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  Or the Big 12 castaways, once OU leads another exodus... Having been left behind when the SWC imploded, I've seen the death of a brand. Supernova

That probably leads to the remaining B12 schools inviting the top of the AAC and maybe the top of the MWC and BYU.

The Big <XII is pretty stable right now. OU getting into the play-off helps to ensure that it will remain stable for several years to come, IMHO. Keep in mind that the league presidents don't actually Want to expand... they are simply willing to swallow their pride and do it *IF* they are backed into a corner and have no other choice. That hasn't happened yet and may not ever happen.

But, okay, I'll play along. Let's suppose that there is some sort of "exodus" involving the league's biggest brands.


That would depend on who, precisely, the "remaining" members are.

Just offhand, if you take away Oklahoma, Texas, and two others (let's say, just for discussion, that the other two are Kansas and OK State), then you're looking at a "Big VI" consisting of:

Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
West Virginia

I don't envision that group being able to dictate terms to anyone else.

"There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call the Twilight Zone."

(12-17-2015 12:27 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 11:41 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  Or the Big 12 castaways, once OU leads another exodus... Having been left behind when the SWC imploded, I've seen the death of a brand. Supernova

That probably leads to the remaining B12 schools inviting the top of the AAC and maybe the top of the MWC and BYU.

The Big <XII is pretty stable right now. OU getting into the play-off helps to ensure that it will remain stable for several years to come, IMHO. Keep in mind that the league presidents don't actually Want to expand... they are simply willing to swallow their pride and do it *IF* they are backed into a corner and have no other choice. That hasn't happened yet and may not ever happen.

But, okay, I'll play along. Let's suppose that there is some sort of "exodus" involving the league's biggest brands.


That would depend on who, precisely, the "remaining" members are.

Just offhand, if you take away Oklahoma, Texas, and two others (let's say, just for discussion, that the other two are Kansas and OK State), then you're looking at a "Big VI" consisting of:

Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
West Virginia

I don't envision that group being able to dictate terms to anyone else.

Any team in the AAC would jump at the chance to join the that group and yes they could dictate the terms. SMU would go in a heart beat.

(12-17-2015 12:49 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 12:27 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 11:41 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  Or the Big 12 castaways, once OU leads another exodus... Having been left behind when the SWC imploded, I've seen the death of a brand. Supernova

That probably leads to the remaining B12 schools inviting the top of the AAC and maybe the top of the MWC and BYU.

The Big <XII is pretty stable right now. OU getting into the play-off helps to ensure that it will remain stable for several years to come, IMHO. Keep in mind that the league presidents don't actually Want to expand... they are simply willing to swallow their pride and do it *IF* they are backed into a corner and have no other choice. That hasn't happened yet and may not ever happen.

But, okay, I'll play along. Let's suppose that there is some sort of "exodus" involving the league's biggest brands.


That would depend on who, precisely, the "remaining" members are.

Just offhand, if you take away Oklahoma, Texas, and two others (let's say, just for discussion, that the other two are Kansas and OK State), then you're looking at a "Big VI" consisting of:

Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
West Virginia

I don't envision that group being able to dictate terms to anyone else.

Any team in the AAC would jump at the chance to join the that group and yes they could dictate the terms. SMU would go in a heart beat.

Yup. Imagine that 6-team remaining Big-12 core inviting 6 AAC teams (say from a group of ECU, Memphis, Cinci, SMU, UConn, Temple, UCF, USF, and Houston). That would be a pretty attractive league for those AAC schools. Eveyone of those AAC teams would be gone in a second (and the rebuilt 12 team confernece would be a pretty decent league that would get a decent paycheck I imagine). That grouping might even be able to hang onto its "power" conference designation---kind of the new Big East level conference.

The other option, the existing 12 team AAC merges with the 6 remaining B-12 teams to create an 18 team conference that likely becomes a significant player.

East

W Virginia
ECU
Temple
UConn
USF
UCF
Cinci
Navy
Memphis
Tulane

West

Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
Houston
SMU
Tulsa
Tulane


Its ESPN's call as to how it goes.

(12-17-2015 12:49 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 12:27 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 11:52 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 11:41 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  Or the Big 12 castaways, once OU leads another exodus... Having been left behind when the SWC imploded, I've seen the death of a brand. Supernova

That probably leads to the remaining B12 schools inviting the top of the AAC and maybe the top of the MWC and BYU.

The Big <XII is pretty stable right now. OU getting into the play-off helps to ensure that it will remain stable for several years to come, IMHO. Keep in mind that the league presidents don't actually Want to expand... they are simply willing to swallow their pride and do it *IF* they are backed into a corner and have no other choice. That hasn't happened yet and may not ever happen.

But, okay, I'll play along. Let's suppose that there is some sort of "exodus" involving the league's biggest brands.


That would depend on who, precisely, the "remaining" members are.

Just offhand, if you take away Oklahoma, Texas, and two others (let's say, just for discussion, that the other two are Kansas and OK State), then you're looking at a "Big VI" consisting of:

Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
West Virginia

I don't envision that group being able to dictate terms to anyone else.

Any team in the AAC would jump at the chance to join the that group and yes they could dictate the terms. SMU would go in a heart beat.

It wouldn't even be a lateral move that that point. It would be slamming the engine in reverse.

The "Big 12" TV contract wouldn't exist. It would be blown to pieces. There wouldn't be a contract bowl tie-in. Basically, any semblance of structure to actually lure teams would be non-existent.
If SMU left to align with a conference consisting of - Waco, Ames, Manhattan, Lubbock, Ft. Worth, etc - they'd be idiots. What would they be paid for that footprint?
IMO, nothing more than the AAC will be getting by that time.

(12-17-2015 01:01 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  That grouping might even be able to hang onto its "power" conference designation---kind of the new Big East level conference.

Not even close.

It's too regional.

Without the draw of OU and UT (and Kansas basketball), that TV contract will sink like a stone.

Baylor without UT/OU is no more valuable than UCONN was once the Big East was hit with mass defections. In fact, they are less valuable because don't have UCONNs athletic profile.

(12-17-2015 01:10 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 01:01 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  That grouping might even be able to hang onto its "power" conference designation---kind of the new Big East level conference.

Not even close.

It's too regional.

Without the draw of OU and UT (and Kansas basketball), that TV contract will sink like a stone.

Regional? Depends on how its built. For instance---

West

Iowa St
TCU
Baylor
Kansas St
Texas Tech
Houston
Memphis

East

W Virginia
ECU
UConn
Cinci
USF
UCF
Navy

The final result is anything but regional.

(12-17-2015 01:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 01:10 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 01:01 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  That grouping might even be able to hang onto its "power" conference designation---kind of the new Big East level conference.

Not even close.

It's too regional.

Without the draw of OU and UT (and Kansas basketball), that TV contract will sink like a stone.

Regional? Depends on how its built. For instance---

West

Iowa St
TCU
Baylor
Kansas St
Texas Tech
Houston
Memphis

East

W Virginia
ECU
UConn
Cinci
USF
UCF
Navy

The final result is anything but regional.

That's where the tug of war comes into play. The AAC actually has the high ground with a viable conference structure. Everything that is known as the Big 12 would have to be renegotiated. Basically, their base will be in flux like ours was in 2013.

They wont be in a position to lure teams.. anymore than we were to retain teams in 2013. They will have to join conferences just like the SWC teams had to.

(12-17-2015 01:23 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 01:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 01:10 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(12-17-2015 01:01 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  That grouping might even be able to hang onto its "power" conference designation---kind of the new Big East level conference.

Not even close.

It's too regional.

Without the draw of OU and UT (and Kansas basketball), that TV contract will sink like a stone.

Regional? Depends on how its built. For instance---

West

Iowa St
TCU
Baylor
Kansas St
Texas Tech
Houston
Memphis

East

W Virginia
ECU
UConn
Cinci
USF
UCF
Navy

The final result is anything but regional.

That's where the tug of war comes into play. The AAC actually has the high ground with a viable conference structure. Everything that is known as the Big 12 would have to be renegotiated. Basically, their base will be in flux like ours was in 2013.

They wont be in a position to lure teams.. anymore than we were to retain teams in 2013. They will have to join conferences just like the SWC teams had to.

The remaining SWC teams "could" have rebuilt the conference had they chosen to. They certainly had as much certainty as the completely unknown CUSA. The remaining SWC members simply couldn't get on the same page as to who to add (the privates wanted more small privates) and the Houston administration was not enthralled with staying with the small privates--which was all that was left of the SWC beyond Houston. Houston preferred adding larger public institutions. My guess is it could have all worked out---the issue was a lack of trust after a decade of back and forth NCAA tattle telling (resulting in widespread SWC probations) and a major backstab by the exiting teams while everyone thought "merger" negotiations were ongoing. There just wasnt much love in the room at that point.

Frankly, Ive always believed that was the biggest mistake ever made by UH. Just the name recognition of the SWC and building off a core of remaining members (who still had "major conference" name recognition) would have allowed the league to be at least as successful as CUSA--likely more so.

Something like this--

Houston
Rice
TCU
SMU
Tulane
Louisville
S Miss
Cinci
Tulsa/New Mexico

For the 4 teams of the SWC, and for the additions, a rebuilt SWC likely would have been a much more solid platform for thi mid-1990's than those silly red white blue divisions from CUSA. My guess is the left behind Big-12 teams would not make the same mistake we made.

You do realize that this would usher in the era of the Super conference (16 being the preferred number). We're basically talking about 2 schools at this point. Likely TCU and Baylor.

Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
Texas Tech
TCU
West Virginia

The AAC would go to 16 and take 4 from this group. Two Texas schools would get cut because the new conference would not have 5 Texas schools. IMO, Texas Tech would make it.

The alternative (a Big 12 poach) isn't any more advantageous to the new conference. It's actually less so. TCU and Baylor are just bodies. They'd likely go to the MWC.