So how improbable would it be for a team like Rice to improve by 5+ wins and go 10-2 regular season next year?
Or 12-2 and finish the season ranked top 25?
Similar to Northwestern's comparable turnaround this year?
I don't know.
But I do know that in the past decade Rice has already had two comparable bounce back campaigns:
In 2008 we improved by 7 wins from 3-9 to 10-3.
And in 2013(plus the second half of 2012) we improved from 5-13 (in 2011 plus the first half of '12) to 15-5. +10 games (or a +7 win per season pace).

As improbable as it may sound... If you've been watching you've seen this thing come together before.

(11-29-2015 10:32 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  So how improbable would it be for a team like Rice to improve by 5+ wins and go 10-2 regular season next year?
Or 12-2 and finish the season ranked top 25?
Similar to Northwestern's comparable turnaround this year?
I don't know.
But I do know that in the past decade Rice has already had two comparable bounce back campaigns:
In 2008 we improved by 7 wins from 3-9 to 10-3.
And in 2013(plus the second half of 2012) we improved from 5-13 (in 2011 plus the first half of '12) to 15-5. +10 games (or a +7 win per season pace).

As improbable as it may sound... If you've been watching you've seen this thing come together before.

A turnaround, yes. Top 20, you're jokimg. Baylor and Stanford are on the schedule, to make top 20, will require a win in one of those. No way That's happening under Bailiff. Both will be blow outs.

(11-29-2015 10:32 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  So how improbable would it be for a team like Rice to improve by 5+ wins and go 10-2 regular season next year?
Or 12-2 and finish the season ranked top 25?
Similar to Northwestern's comparable turnaround this year?
I don't know.
But I do know that in the past decade Rice has already had two comparable bounce back campaigns:
In 2008 we improved by 7 wins from 3-9 to 10-3.
And in 2013(plus the second half of 2012) we improved from 5-13 (in 2011 plus the first half of '12) to 15-5. +10 games (or a +7 win per season pace).

As improbable as it may sound... If you've been watching you've seen this thing come together before.

Not with a totally inexperience QB, the loss of arguably our best WR (who was injured much of this year), our 2 best offensive linemen and our two best defensive linemen. We also lose our 2nd most experience LB and our most experienced DB. Oh, and our punter.

(11-29-2015 10:34 PM)WIowl Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 10:32 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  So how improbable would it be for a team like Rice to improve by 5+ wins and go 10-2 regular season next year?
Or 12-2 and finish the season ranked top 25?
Similar to Northwestern's comparable turnaround this year?
I don't know.
But I do know that in the past decade Rice has already had two comparable bounce back campaigns:
In 2008 we improved by 7 wins from 3-9 to 10-3.
And in 2013(plus the second half of 2012) we improved from 5-13 (in 2011 plus the first half of '12) to 15-5. +10 games (or a +7 win per season pace).

As improbable as it may sound... If you've been watching you've seen this thing come together before.

A turnaround, yes. Top 20, you're jokimg. Baylor and Stanford are on the schedule, to make top 20, will require a win in one of those. No way That's happening under Bailiff. Both will be blow outs.

Top 20 would be a stretch goal but I'd be pleased with top 25.
So are Baylor and Stanford both returning their full squads next year from this season's top 10 lineups?

Plus, we proved this year that we can play our best game against a name P5 opponent.

So I'll take the split on those two, get to 5-1 and we might be ranked before we even get to November.

I love your optimism!!!!

(11-29-2015 11:02 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 10:34 PM)WIowl Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 10:32 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  So how improbable would it be for a team like Rice to improve by 5+ wins and go 10-2 regular season next year?
Or 12-2 and finish the season ranked top 25?
Similar to Northwestern's comparable turnaround this year?
I don't know.
But I do know that in the past decade Rice has already had two comparable bounce back campaigns:
In 2008 we improved by 7 wins from 3-9 to 10-3.
And in 2013(plus the second half of 2012) we improved from 5-13 (in 2011 plus the first half of '12) to 15-5. +10 games (or a +7 win per season pace).

As improbable as it may sound... If you've been watching you've seen this thing come together before.

A turnaround, yes. Top 20, you're jokimg. Baylor and Stanford are on the schedule, to make top 20, will require a win in one of those. No way That's happening under Bailiff. Both will be blow outs.

Top 20 would be a stretch goal but I'd be pleased with top 25.
So are Baylor and Stanford both returning their full squads next year from this season's top 10 lineups?

Plus, we proved this year that we can play our best game against a name P5 opponent.

So I'll take the split on those two, get to 5-1 and we might be ranked before we even get to November.

Baylor returns Seth Russell, their QB who eviscerated our defense in September before getting injured in October. Stanford returns Christian McCaffrey - their Swiss Army knife player. He just broke Reggie Bush's single season all purpose yards record in the Pac 12 and is within striking distance of Barry Sanders' FBS record for all purpose yards in a single season. I'm sure we will split those two games.

(11-29-2015 10:37 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 10:32 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  So how improbable would it be for a team like Rice to improve by 5+ wins and go 10-2 regular season next year?
Or 12-2 and finish the season ranked top 25?
Similar to Northwestern's comparable turnaround this year?
I don't know.
But I do know that in the past decade Rice has already had two comparable bounce back campaigns:
In 2008 we improved by 7 wins from 3-9 to 10-3.
And in 2013(plus the second half of 2012) we improved from 5-13 (in 2011 plus the first half of '12) to 15-5. +10 games (or a +7 win per season pace).

As improbable as it may sound... If you've been watching you've seen this thing come together before.

Not with a totally inexperience QB, the loss of arguably our best WR (who was injured much of this year), our 2 best offensive linemen and our two best defensive linemen. We also lose our 2nd most experience LB and our most experienced DB. Oh, and our punter.

I don't foresee a huge W-L improvement but I'm not sure if the losses are as extreme as you suggest. Obviously someone will have to replace Driphus - Stehling and German aren't totally inexperienced but certainly they didn't get much PT this year.

Parks will be replaceable. The other receivers were better than him this year, by a ton. The OL can be replaced - replacing Reue will be a little harder than Williams. Winship and Mouch are a much less significant loss than last year's Covington and Nordstrom loss. Mouch was injured so much this year that he wasn't one of our best DL - he had 6 tackles on the season (1 for a loss).

Espinosa had our only two interceptions on the year (! - that has to be one of the saddest stats in Rice football history) but he was a safety, not a linebacker. And I guess Pollard was our best DB, but again that's not saying much - it's not like we're losing Gaines or Callahan in that case.

I'd say the only way we can show a huge improvement is if we can get some immediate transfer help, either with JUCOs or a case like the La Tech QB graduate transfer. Or a hardship transfer of some type - which the NCAA is trying to cut down although UH got one this year at WR which helped them a ton.

(11-29-2015 11:15 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 10:37 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 10:32 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  So how improbable would it be for a team like Rice to improve by 5+ wins and go 10-2 regular season next year?
Or 12-2 and finish the season ranked top 25?
Similar to Northwestern's comparable turnaround this year?
I don't know.
But I do know that in the past decade Rice has already had two comparable bounce back campaigns:
In 2008 we improved by 7 wins from 3-9 to 10-3.
And in 2013(plus the second half of 2012) we improved from 5-13 (in 2011 plus the first half of '12) to 15-5. +10 games (or a +7 win per season pace).

As improbable as it may sound... If you've been watching you've seen this thing come together before.

Not with a totally inexperience QB, the loss of arguably our best WR (who was injured much of this year), our 2 best offensive linemen and our two best defensive linemen. We also lose our 2nd most experience LB and our most experienced DB. Oh, and our punter.

I don't foresee a huge W-L improvement but I'm not sure if the losses are as extreme as you suggest. Obviously someone will have to replace Driphus - Stehling and German aren't totally inexperienced but certainly they didn't get much PT this year.

Parks will be replaceable. The other receivers were better than him this year, by a ton. The OL can be replaced - replacing Reue will be a little harder than Williams. Winship and Mouch are a much less significant loss than last year's Covington and Nordstrom loss. Mouch was injured so much this year that he wasn't one of our best DL - he had 6 tackles on the season (1 for a loss).

Espinosa had our only two interceptions on the year (! - that has to be one of the saddest stats in Rice football history) but he was a safety, not a linebacker. And I guess Pollard was our best DB, but again that's not saying much - it's not like we're losing Gaines or Callahan in that case.

I'd say the only way we can show a huge improvement is if we can get some immediate transfer help, either with JUCOs or a case like the La Tech QB graduate transfer. Or a hardship transfer of some type - which the NCAA is trying to cut down although UH got one this year at WR which helped them a ton.

FBO, you're correct that this year's losses are less significant than last year, especially on defense, BUT...they are losses just the same (and Reue, DJ, Elder, Pollard and Farrimond are all key losses) from a base team that went 5-7 this year, with a very favorable home schedule (which we don't get next year) and with all our wins coming against teams ranked amongst the bottom 25 in all of the FBS. You gotta assume those teams improve, no?

The difference between 5-7 and 10-2 in the big 10 isn't necessarily huge. NW beat Wisconsin, ND and Penn State.

The difference between 5-7 and 10-2 in CUSA is huge. Especially if we need to beat a team like Stanford or Baylor.

But hey - bonus points for creativity and sense of humor

At the beginning of this year I called for 6-6/7-5. I was off by one game.

I'll call for 5-7 next year.

(11-29-2015 11:27 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  I'll call for 5-7 next year.

Number of fans in the stadium?

(11-29-2015 11:30 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 11:27 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  I'll call for 5-7 next year.

Number of fans in the stadium?

Yep ... notice that I did at least provide a range.

(11-29-2015 10:37 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 10:32 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  So how improbable would it be for a team like Rice to improve by 5+ wins and go 10-2 regular season next year?
Or 12-2 and finish the season ranked top 25?
Similar to Northwestern's comparable turnaround this year?
I don't know.
But I do know that in the past decade Rice has already had two comparable bounce back campaigns:
In 2008 we improved by 7 wins from 3-9 to 10-3.
And in 2013(plus the second half of 2012) we improved from 5-13 (in 2011 plus the first half of '12) to 15-5. +10 games (or a +7 win per season pace).

As improbable as it may sound... If you've been watching you've seen this thing come together before.

Not with a totally inexperience QB, the loss of arguably our best WR (who was injured much of this year), our 2 best offensive linemen and our two best defensive linemen. We also lose our 2nd most experience LB and our most experienced DB. Oh, and our punter.

QB is the biggest question mark, and losing the punter could be a bid deal. But Anderson is the only NFL prospect that I'm aware of on the O-line and he's only a freshman. Winship was arguably one of our top 2 D-linemen but I would put Brown and Womac right there, and the most talent is probably in the interior with Thompson and Abercrumbia, who will have their first off-season in the program, to get stronger.

(11-29-2015 11:22 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  FBO, you're correct that this year's losses are less significant than last year, especially on defense, BUT...they are losses just the same (and Reue, DJ, Elder, Pollard and Farrimond are all key losses) from a base team that went 5-7 this year, with a very favorable home schedule (which we don't get next year) and with all our wins coming against teams ranked amongst the bottom 25 in all of the FBS. You gotta assume those teams improve, no?

Reue, DJ and Farrimond are all key losses IMO. Elder had two starts on the season. Pollard started 10 games but had 1 pass break-up this season. They can be replaced.

Some teams will get better and some will get worse. My guess is UTEP and UTSA will be better a bit next year - not sure about UNT. I think Louisiana Tech might be due for a drop, but honestly I don't know their roster situation at all.

(11-29-2015 11:15 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 10:37 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 10:32 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  So how improbable would it be for a team like Rice to improve by 5+ wins and go 10-2 regular season next year?
Or 12-2 and finish the season ranked top 25?
Similar to Northwestern's comparable turnaround this year?
I don't know.
But I do know that in the past decade Rice has already had two comparable bounce back campaigns:
In 2008 we improved by 7 wins from 3-9 to 10-3.
And in 2013(plus the second half of 2012) we improved from 5-13 (in 2011 plus the first half of '12) to 15-5. +10 games (or a +7 win per season pace).

As improbable as it may sound... If you've been watching you've seen this thing come together before.

Not with a totally inexperience QB, the loss of arguably our best WR (who was injured much of this year), our 2 best offensive linemen and our two best defensive linemen. We also lose our 2nd most experience LB and our most experienced DB. Oh, and our punter.

I don't foresee a huge W-L improvement but I'm not sure if the losses are as extreme as you suggest. Obviously someone will have to replace Driphus - Stehling and German aren't totally inexperienced but certainly they didn't get much PT this year.

Parks will be replaceable. The other receivers were better than him this year, by a ton. The OL can be replaced - replacing Reue will be a little harder than Williams. Winship and Mouch are a much less significant loss than last year's Covington and Nordstrom loss. Mouch was injured so much this year that he wasn't one of our best DL - he had 6 tackles on the season (1 for a loss).

Espinosa had our only two interceptions on the year (! - that has to be one of the saddest stats in Rice football history) but he was a safety, not a linebacker. And I guess Pollard was our best DB, but again that's not saying much - it's not like we're losing Gaines or Callahan in that case.

I'd say the only way we can show a huge improvement is if we can get some immediate transfer help, either with JUCOs or a case like the La Tech QB graduate transfer. Or a hardship transfer of some type - which the NCAA is trying to cut down although UH got one this year at WR which helped them a ton.

You have to be kidding if you consider this experience.
Tyler Stehling 24 48 320 50.0 6.67 1 2 104.5
Nate German 1 2 11 50.0 5.50 0 0 96.2

Stehling has been here four years and has ZERO starts. German will probably stay at WR. Biggest factor Edmondson QB coach.

DJ has to be upset after playing so much better when he was much younger. Not sure but Taylor and DJ both regressed, common denominator - OC, HC, QB Coach.

(11-29-2015 11:32 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 11:30 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 11:27 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  I'll call for 5-7 next year.

Number of fans in the stadium?

Yep ... notice that I did at least provide a range.

So you're saying the stadium won't be completely empty?

(11-29-2015 10:32 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  So how improbable would it be for a team like Rice to improve by 5+ wins and go 10-2 regular season next year?
Or 12-2 and finish the season ranked top 25?
Similar to Northwestern's comparable turnaround this year?
I don't know.
But I do know that in the past decade Rice has already had two comparable bounce back campaigns:
In 2008 we improved by 7 wins from 3-9 to 10-3.
And in 2013(plus the second half of 2012) we improved from 5-13 (in 2011 plus the first half of '12) to 15-5. +10 games (or a +7 win per season pace).
As improbable as it may sound... If you've been watching you've seen this thing come together before.

Three. Improved by 6 wins (1 to 7) in 2005-06.

Not happening this time. 3-9 or 4-8. I hope I'm wrong but I don't see it.

Only sure win is PV, barring a repeat of Nicholls.

(11-30-2015 12:23 AM)KTOWL Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 11:15 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 10:37 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 10:32 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  So how improbable would it be for a team like Rice to improve by 5+ wins and go 10-2 regular season next year?
Or 12-2 and finish the season ranked top 25?
Similar to Northwestern's comparable turnaround this year?
I don't know.
But I do know that in the past decade Rice has already had two comparable bounce back campaigns:
In 2008 we improved by 7 wins from 3-9 to 10-3.
And in 2013(plus the second half of 2012) we improved from 5-13 (in 2011 plus the first half of '12) to 15-5. +10 games (or a +7 win per season pace).

As improbable as it may sound... If you've been watching you've seen this thing come together before.

Not with a totally inexperience QB, the loss of arguably our best WR (who was injured much of this year), our 2 best offensive linemen and our two best defensive linemen. We also lose our 2nd most experience LB and our most experienced DB. Oh, and our punter.

I don't foresee a huge W-L improvement but I'm not sure if the losses are as extreme as you suggest. Obviously someone will have to replace Driphus - Stehling and German aren't totally inexperienced but certainly they didn't get much PT this year.

Parks will be replaceable. The other receivers were better than him this year, by a ton. The OL can be replaced - replacing Reue will be a little harder than Williams. Winship and Mouch are a much less significant loss than last year's Covington and Nordstrom loss. Mouch was injured so much this year that he wasn't one of our best DL - he had 6 tackles on the season (1 for a loss).

Espinosa had our only two interceptions on the year (! - that has to be one of the saddest stats in Rice football history) but he was a safety, not a linebacker. And I guess Pollard was our best DB, but again that's not saying much - it's not like we're losing Gaines or Callahan in that case.

I'd say the only way we can show a huge improvement is if we can get some immediate transfer help, either with JUCOs or a case like the La Tech QB graduate transfer. Or a hardship transfer of some type - which the NCAA is trying to cut down although UH got one this year at WR which helped them a ton.

You have to be kidding if you consider this experience.
Tyler Stehling 24 48 320 50.0 6.67 1 2 104.5
Nate German 1 2 11 50.0 5.50 0 0 96.2

Stehling has been here four years and has ZERO starts. German will probably stay at WR. Biggest factor Edmondson QB coach.

DJ has to be upset after playing so much better when he was much younger. Not sure but Taylor and DJ both regressed, common denominator - OC, HC, QB Coach.

Any reason you think McHargue regressed? By his senior year in 2013 he led the team to the conference championship, one very broad and basic metric, sure, but one that at least shows development of leadership skills.

No question that DJ regressed this year, as compared to 2014.

(11-30-2015 01:11 AM)Baconator Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 11:32 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 11:30 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 11:27 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  I'll call for 5-7 next year.

Number of fans in the stadium?

Yep ... notice that I did at least provide a range.

So you're saying the stadium won't be completely empty?

Maybe OCO actually meant 5 MINUS 7 = -2?

(11-30-2015 09:07 AM)Antarius Wrote:  

(11-30-2015 01:11 AM)Baconator Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 11:32 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 11:30 PM)Antarius Wrote:  

(11-29-2015 11:27 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  I'll call for 5-7 next year.

Number of fans in the stadium?

Yep ... notice that I did at least provide a range.

So you're saying the stadium won't be completely empty?

Maybe OCO actually meant 5 MINUS 7 = -2?

Dark matter fans?