(11-24-2015 05:15 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Seeing how the Big Ten operates, I believe that their end game is a split between ESPN and Fox (similar to the Pac-12 deal) for football and the bulk of basketball while still keeping a weekly OTA game on CBS for basketball (where the CBS money isn't as critical as the widespread national exposure and top time slots).

The intriguing question here is how the Big Ten gets to their end game at the highest value, when what they want is the same as what ESPN and Fox would likely want, but they would like it at more money and ESPN and Fox would like it at less money.

One strategy if there is a bilateral monopoly for the normal first and second tier FB rights is to offer an undersized package of FB rights, reserving a larger share for BTN, to try to force ESPN to bid the price up in order to get the content off of Fox's part-owned BTN onto ESPN.

The problem with any strategy of squeezing the market to increase the offer is how credible the Big Ten's threat to stick to that threat is, when the Big Ten would prefer to have broad exposure, with just enough overflow onto BTN to allow it to hold onto market access and maintain exposure for BBall and Olympic sports.

(11-24-2015 12:27 PM)Jet915 Wrote:  My guess is ESPN and Fox will split and the B1G will get a slight raise but probably not what they hoped to get.

I think ESPN and Fox split and the B1G gets a very big raise, but well below what they are expecting. Their Tier I deal was only $100 million average per year with 11 teams + another $12 million for basketball and $24 million for the ccg in a relatively new contract. So to get up to the others they will get a big increase. But they won't be getting $50 million per team like someone on College Sports Radio was predicting yesterday. The BTN deal is set through 2032 and will only change through increasing subscription fees and advertising.

To get to $21 million per team before Tier III (what the Pac is getting), they will have to increase that $136 million to $294 million.

(11-25-2015 06:00 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 05:15 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Seeing how the Big Ten operates, I believe that their end game is a split between ESPN and Fox (similar to the Pac-12 deal) for football and the bulk of basketball while still keeping a weekly OTA game on CBS for basketball (where the CBS money isn't as critical as the widespread national exposure and top time slots).

The intriguing question here is how the Big Ten gets to their end game at the highest value, when what they want is the same as what ESPN and Fox would likely want, but they would like it at more money and ESPN and Fox would like it at less money.

One strategy if there is a bilateral monopoly for the normal first and second tier FB rights is to offer an undersized package of FB rights, reserving a larger share for BTN, to try to force ESPN to bid the price up in order to get the content off of Fox's part-owned BTN onto ESPN.

The problem with any strategy of squeezing the market to increase the offer is how credible the Big Ten's threat to stick to that threat is, when the Big Ten would prefer to have broad exposure, with just enough overflow onto BTN to allow it to hold onto market access and maintain exposure for BBall and Olympic sports.

They already have over 40 games reserved to BTN. There is really no more room on the BTN without using overflow channels. So there is no credible threat to withhold more inventory. The threat is alternative bidders.

They may try to structure it like a cross between the SEC and Pac 12/Big 12. One game of the week on ABC/Fox/CBS or NBC, trying to get big $ for that, with the 2nd tier split between ESPN and Fox. They would still retain the 40-45 games for BTN.

(11-24-2015 12:27 PM)Jet915 Wrote:  My guess is ESPN and Fox will split and the B1G will get a slight raise but probably not what they hoped to get.

They have no incentive to bid it up too much...as it will put pressure on the other conferences and cause possible unfavorable outcomes for ESPN.

BL: ESPN doesn't want to create too much incentive for teams to bolt.

how much does either of these get?



Big 10 + ND and UConn All sports

West: Neb, Iowa, MN, Wis
North: NW, ILL, UM, OSU
South: ND, MSU, IU, Pur
East: PSU, Maryland, Rut, Uconn

or

Big 10 + Uconn and ND no football but 6 games in an ACC type deal

East: Uconn, Rut, Maryland, PSU, OSU
Central: UM, MSU, IU, Pur, NW
West: ILL, Wis, MN, Io, NEb

format: 4-2-2 with ND playing 2-2-2 for 6 games

(11-25-2015 11:39 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 12:27 PM)Jet915 Wrote:  My guess is ESPN and Fox will split and the B1G will get a slight raise but probably not what they hoped to get.

They have no incentive to bid it up too much...as it will put pressure on the other conferences and cause possible unfavorable outcomes for ESPN.

BL: ESPN doesn't want to create too much incentive for teams to bolt.

I don't think that is a huge worry because ESPN, through their full control of the ACC and Texas, will be able to orchestrate the consolidation to a P4 so that it ends up the way they want (my prediction is no more B12, Texas in an ND type deal with the ACC).

(11-25-2015 11:39 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 12:27 PM)Jet915 Wrote:  My guess is ESPN and Fox will split and the B1G will get a slight raise but probably not what they hoped to get.

They have no incentive to bid it up too much...as it will put pressure on the other conferences and cause possible unfavorable outcomes for ESPN.

BL: ESPN doesn't want to create too much incentive for teams to bolt.

This is it exactly, which is why I stated above that they have to sell their content as one package, as it is the only way to create two bidders for one property. The ideal set up, some to ESPN and some to Fox, creates no incentive for them to increase the bid, unless there is another bidder. That is why I have been saying for two years, the Big Ten almost has to sell their content as one big package - again unless there is a third, currently unknown bidder). And even then, they still probably make out better with one package.

(11-25-2015 11:57 AM)krup Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 11:39 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 12:27 PM)Jet915 Wrote:  My guess is ESPN and Fox will split and the B1G will get a slight raise but probably not what they hoped to get.

They have no incentive to bid it up too much...as it will put pressure on the other conferences and cause possible unfavorable outcomes for ESPN.

BL: ESPN doesn't want to create too much incentive for teams to bolt.

I don't think that is a huge worry because ESPN, through their full control of the ACC and Texas, will be able to orchestrate the consolidation to a P4 so that it ends up the way they want (my prediction is no more B12, Texas in an ND type deal with the ACC).

Why would ESPN want that? Right now there's 5 big conferences with desirable programming. If that shrinks to 4 (or 3, or 2) then the conferences have a lot more leverage in negotiations with ESPN. That's the exact opposite of what ESPN wants.

Also, ESPN wants to be mandatory viewing in every household in the country, not just households of Longhorns fans. It's in their interests to keep the P5 as inclusive as possible as long as it doesn't cost them too much extra.

(11-24-2015 07:02 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  UCONN to the Big Ten.

The media rights can be as large as $80 million per team but if the B1G doesn't expand in advance of negotiation then its not a story.

B1G: Connecticut/Oklahoma
B12: Houston
AAC: Buffalo/Massachusetts
CUSA: Ohio

-B1G gains a national power in football and basketball.

-Texas gets what it wants with a 5th in-state school for the B12.

-AAC rebuilds in the Northeast.

-Ohio escapes the Midweek TV dumpster fire.

-MAC sticks at 10 with less mouths to feed.

(11-24-2015 05:59 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 12:56 PM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  The B1G will get double their annual payouts with the new deal. That has been the projection for well over a year now. FOX and ESPN will get rights. It's all about who gets the Michigan vs Ohio State game.

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 6h6 hours ago
The time has come the walrus said to talk of many things - of shoes and ships and Oklahoma changing conferences and becoming Big Ten kings!

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 5h5 hours ago
Many would want Castiglione's statue in OU's Heisman Park if OU AD pulls off B1G move and brings back OU-NU yearly.

https://twitter.com/DaveSittler?ref_src=...r%5Eauthor

Who is Dave Sittler?

Recently retired lead sports writer for the Tulsa World newspaper.

(11-25-2015 03:52 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 05:59 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 12:56 PM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  The B1G will get double their annual payouts with the new deal. That has been the projection for well over a year now. FOX and ESPN will get rights. It's all about who gets the Michigan vs Ohio State game.

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 6h6 hours ago
The time has come the walrus said to talk of many things - of shoes and ships and Oklahoma changing conferences and becoming Big Ten kings!

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 5h5 hours ago
Many would want Castiglione's statue in OU's Heisman Park if OU AD pulls off B1G move and brings back OU-NU yearly.

https://twitter.com/DaveSittler?ref_src=...r%5Eauthor

Who is Dave Sittler?

Recently retired lead sports writer for the Tulsa World newspaper.

Is he right?

(11-25-2015 06:21 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 03:52 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 05:59 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 12:56 PM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  The B1G will get double their annual payouts with the new deal. That has been the projection for well over a year now. FOX and ESPN will get rights. It's all about who gets the Michigan vs Ohio State game.

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 6h6 hours ago
The time has come the walrus said to talk of many things - of shoes and ships and Oklahoma changing conferences and becoming Big Ten kings!

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 5h5 hours ago
Many would want Castiglione's statue in OU's Heisman Park if OU AD pulls off B1G move and brings back OU-NU yearly.

https://twitter.com/DaveSittler?ref_src=...r%5Eauthor

Who is Dave Sittler?

Recently retired lead sports writer for the Tulsa World newspaper.

Is he right?

I do not know, but he certainly has connections after a long career there.

(11-25-2015 08:58 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 06:21 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 03:52 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 05:59 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 12:56 PM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  The B1G will get double their annual payouts with the new deal. That has been the projection for well over a year now. FOX and ESPN will get rights. It's all about who gets the Michigan vs Ohio State game.

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 6h6 hours ago
The time has come the walrus said to talk of many things - of shoes and ships and Oklahoma changing conferences and becoming Big Ten kings!

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 5h5 hours ago
Many would want Castiglione's statue in OU's Heisman Park if OU AD pulls off B1G move and brings back OU-NU yearly.

https://twitter.com/DaveSittler?ref_src=...r%5Eauthor

Who is Dave Sittler?

Recently retired lead sports writer for the Tulsa World newspaper.

Is he right?

I do not know, but he certainly has connections after a long career there.

What's with his twitter picture then?

(11-25-2015 01:30 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 11:57 AM)krup Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 11:39 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 12:27 PM)Jet915 Wrote:  My guess is ESPN and Fox will split and the B1G will get a slight raise but probably not what they hoped to get.

They have no incentive to bid it up too much...as it will put pressure on the other conferences and cause possible unfavorable outcomes for ESPN.

BL: ESPN doesn't want to create too much incentive for teams to bolt.

I don't think that is a huge worry because ESPN, through their full control of the ACC and Texas, will be able to orchestrate the consolidation to a P4 so that it ends up the way they want (my prediction is no more B12, Texas in an ND type deal with the ACC).

Why would ESPN want that? Right now there's 5 big conferences with desirable programming. If that shrinks to 4 (or 3, or 2) then the conferences have a lot more leverage in negotiations with ESPN. That's the exact opposite of what ESPN wants.

Also, ESPN wants to be mandatory viewing in every household in the country, not just households of Longhorns fans. It's in their interests to keep the P5 as inclusive as possible as long as it doesn't cost them too much extra.

ESPN already has the ACC and SEC contracts for the next 10 years plus and the new B1G deal would be for at least 10 as well. ESPN isn't going to tie their hands now because of negotiations a decade in the future.

I said where I expect the Longhorns to end up, not that they are the only B12 team to end well. A P4 with the B12 dissolved would be plenty inclusive, even if a few B12 teams don't have a chair when the music stops.

(11-25-2015 08:58 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 06:21 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 03:52 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 05:59 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 12:56 PM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  The B1G will get double their annual payouts with the new deal. That has been the projection for well over a year now. FOX and ESPN will get rights. It's all about who gets the Michigan vs Ohio State game.

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 6h6 hours ago
The time has come the walrus said to talk of many things - of shoes and ships and Oklahoma changing conferences and becoming Big Ten kings!

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 5h5 hours ago
Many would want Castiglione's statue in OU's Heisman Park if OU AD pulls off B1G move and brings back OU-NU yearly.

https://twitter.com/DaveSittler?ref_src=...r%5Eauthor

Who is Dave Sittler?

Recently retired lead sports writer for the Tulsa World newspaper.

Is he right?

I do not know, but he certainly has connections after a long career there.

Then he misses the good ole' Big Eight Days, more power to him.

(11-25-2015 09:47 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 08:58 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 06:21 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 03:52 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 05:59 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Who is Dave Sittler?

Recently retired lead sports writer for the Tulsa World newspaper.

Is he right?

I do not know, but he certainly has connections after a long career there.

What's with his twitter picture then?

Have not seen it. I don't use twitter

(11-25-2015 08:58 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 06:21 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 03:52 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 05:59 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 12:56 PM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  The B1G will get double their annual payouts with the new deal. That has been the projection for well over a year now. FOX and ESPN will get rights. It's all about who gets the Michigan vs Ohio State game.

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 6h6 hours ago
The time has come the walrus said to talk of many things - of shoes and ships and Oklahoma changing conferences and becoming Big Ten kings!

Dave Sittler ‏@DaveSittler 5h5 hours ago
Many would want Castiglione's statue in OU's Heisman Park if OU AD pulls off B1G move and brings back OU-NU yearly.

https://twitter.com/DaveSittler?ref_src=...r%5Eauthor

Who is Dave Sittler?

Recently retired lead sports writer for the Tulsa World newspaper.

Is he right?

I do not know, but he certainly has connections after a long career there.

But does he have connections with the buyers? That is most relevant point.

(11-26-2015 12:56 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 08:58 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 06:21 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 03:52 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-24-2015 05:59 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Who is Dave Sittler?

Recently retired lead sports writer for the Tulsa World newspaper.

Is he right?

I do not know, but he certainly has connections after a long career there.

But does he have connections with the buyers? That is most relevant point.

Who are the buyers?

(11-26-2015 11:01 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 09:47 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 08:58 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 06:21 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-25-2015 03:52 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  Recently retired lead sports writer for the Tulsa World newspaper.

Is he right?

I do not know, but he certainly has connections after a long career there.

What's with his twitter picture then?

Have not seen it. I don't use twitter

I don't either but the link connects to his twitter account so....I saw the pic. It was some old picture of a Nebraska coach.