From an Overall Perspective...

The picture is getting clearer. We now have 6 of the 10 conference AQs decided. One undecided conference (NEC) has a straight-forward championship game next week. The other three conferences have a number of teams competing for the AQ, but many of those runner-ups will still make it in by getting an At Large.

You will notice that I have now included a list of teams who can reach 6 wins. The list of 7 win teams is shrinking and will shrink even more next week, so it is possible that a team from that list will be chosen for an At Large. If necessary, it would likely only be 1-2 teams from that list – and again, there's no guarantee any of them would be looked at.

From a JMU Perspective...

The Dukes eked out another win. I will point out that I was correct in the number of points we would give up (21), but I was definitely wrong about the points we would score. (I said 48.) Hopefully, the offense snaps back and takes Villanova to the woodshed, because a win would be very important. If we win, we will likely get a Seed. (This was made even more certain when Richmond lost this weekend.) If we lose, we will probably be playing a Big South or OVC team – which would be very tough for us.

I will say that it looks like Delaware will be strong next year. I didn't realize how young they were until they mentioned on the TV broadcast that they only have 7 seniors on the team this year. They are playing good teams tough this year, so next year they will probably be very dangerous. (At least we will get them at home.)

By the Numbers (107 total teams)...

Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/18 – 98
10/25 – N/A
11/1 – 66
11/8 – 48
11/15 – 36; 48 including 6-win teams

Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/18 – 71
10/25 – N/A
11/1 – 48
11/8 – 40
11/15 – 29; 41 including 6-win teams

Teams that have reached 7 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/18 – 1
10/25 – N/A
11/1 – 8
11/8 – 11
11/15 – 13


Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 7 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 7 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 7 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.

Clinched Conference Titles
Big Sky –
Big South – Charleston Southern
CAA –
MVC –
NEC –
OVC – Jacksonville State
Patriot – Colgate
Pioneer – Dayton
SoCon – Chattanooga
Southland – McNeese State

CAA (6 Teams Alive)
JMU – 8 wins – cannot win AQ
W&M – 8 wins
Richmond – 7 wins
Towson (0) – cannot win AQ
Villanova (0)
UNH (0) – cannot win AQ

Big Sky (6 Teams Alive)
Portland State – 7 wins
EWU (0)
Southern Utah (0)
Northern Arizona (0)
Montana (0)
North Dakota (0) – cannot win AQ

Big South (2 Teams Alive)
Charleston Southern – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Coastal Carolina – 9 wins

MEAC (4 Teams Alive – No AQ)
NC A&T – 8 wins
Bethune-Cookman – 7 wins
SC State (0)
NC Central (0)

MVC (4 Teams Alive)
Illinois State – 8 wins
SDSU – 8 wins
NDSU – 8 wins
No. Iowa (0) – cannot win AQ

NEC (2 Teams Alive)
StFU (0)
Duquesne

OVC (3 Teams Alive)
Jacksonville State – 9 wins – clinched AQ
EKU (0)
E. Illinois (0)

Patriot League (2 Teams Alive)
Colgate – 6 wins – clinched AQ
Fordham – 9 wins

Pioneer League (2 Teams Alive)
Dayton – 10 wins – clinched AQ
San Diego (0)

SoCon (2 Teams Alive)
Chatty – 7 wins – clinched AQ
Citadel – 7 wins

Southland (3 Teams Alive)
McNeese State – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Central Ark. – 7 wins
Sam Houston State (0)


Can reach 7 wins with a win in final game:
UNH
Villanova
Towson
EWU
Southern Utah
Montana
Northern Arizona
North Dakota
NC Central
SC State
No. Iowa
StFU
EKU
E. Illinois
San Diego
Sam Houston State

Can reach 6 wins with a win in final game:
Weber State
Liberty
South Dakota
Youngstown State
W. Illinois
Tenn.-Martin
Holy Cross
Lehigh
Morehead State
Marist
W. Carolina
Mercer

Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Florida A&M (too dumb for postseason)
Gardner-Webb (too dumb for postseason)
Abilene Christian (transition to D1)
Incarnate Word (transition to D1)
Jacksonville (caught cheating by the Pioneer)
Stony Brook
Albany
URI
Maine
Delaware
Elon
Northern Colorado
Cal Poly
Idaho State
UC Davis
Sac State
Montana State
Monmouth
Presbyterian
Kennesaw State
ETSU
Delaware State
Howard
Morgan State
Norfolk State
Hampton
Missouri State
Indiana State
So. Illinois
Robert Morris
Sacred Heart
Wagner
Cent. Conn. State
Bryant
Tenn. State
Tenn. Tech
Murray State
Austin Peay
SE Missouri State
Lafayette
Bucknell
Georgetown
Valparaiso
Davidson
Stetson
Butler
Campbell
Drake
Samford
Wofford
VMI
Furman
Houston Baptist
NW State
Nichols State
SE Louisiana
Lamar
Stephen F. Austin


Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
Dayton
McNeese State

Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Delaware State
Austin Peay


Conference Analysis

CAA – Three teams are still going for the AQ with it all being based on two games: Richmond/W&M and JMU/Villanova. (JMU cannot get the AQ.) Here are the scenarios...If W&M wins, they get the AQ. If Richmond wins and JMU wins, Richmond gets the AQ. If, however, Richmond wins and Villanova wins, things get interesting. In this case, Richmond, W&M, and Villanova would all be tied atop the CAA so we would go to tie-breakers. First is head-to-head...they would all be 1-1 against each other. Next is common opponent...surprisingly, the only team they all played was JMU – which would all be wins. That also takes care of highest-ranked common opponent. Which means it comes down to the final tie-breaker – which is not the Sagarin. A few years ago, the CAA was in this situation and realized that these computer rankings come in too late to submit their AQ to the Playoff Committee. (My guess is the Committee has told conferences that if their Autobids are not selected by a certain time, that conference will not receive any Seeds.) So in 2013, the CAA changed the last tie-breaker to be a vote by CAA ADs whose teams are not involved. (I don't think they changed it since then.) Who knows how they would vote? As for At-Large spots, JMU should get one. W&M would get one if they don't get the AQ. Richmond (if they lose to W&M), Villanova (with a win over JMU), Towson (with a win over URI), and UNH (with a win over Maine) could all potentially be sitting with 7 wins. I would guess that 3 of those 4 teams would get in (so the CAA would have 5 total teams), so we need to eliminate one. UNH would likely get in – they would have won 4 straight and the Committee knows that they were without their QB for some of the losses. Villanova would be in since this means they would have also won 4 straight and beat Richmond and JMU in back-to-back weeks. So, it would come down to Richmond and Towson. Towson would have won their last 5 of 6 with a good win over Villanova. Richmond, meanwhile, would have lost 3 in a row...but they do have the win over JMU. It could be a coin flip, but I would give the spot to the Ticks based on Towson's loss to Elon. (Richmond would have no bad losses.)

Big Sky – No one wants to win the AQ here. The top 2 teams – EWU and SUU – both lost this week to contenders, so we now have 5 teams within one game of the title. While only Portland State has reached 7 wins as of now, each of these 5 teams (EWU, SUU, Montana, Portland State, and NAU) should make it into the playoffs with a win - especially since 4 of those teams play each other next week. The games to watch: SUU/NAU, EWU/Portland, and Montana/Montana State. The simple scenario for the AQ: SUU wins their game, they win the AQ. If SUU loses, who gets the AQ will depend on who else is still in contention. (There could be as many as 4 teams.) But again, I would put any of those 5 teams in with a win. Portland will likely be in even with a loss. (They have two I-A and a win over SUU.) Sitting outside the AQ situation is North Dakota. They can reach 7 wins with a win, they have a I-A win (over Wyoming), but they also have a terrible loss (to Idaho State). They could be sweating out the selection show along with any other 6- and 7-win teams.

Big South – Both Coastal and Charleston Southern won this week to improve their Seed chances. Both will be in the playoffs (with Charleston Southern as the AQ). Now we need to see if the Big South can get two Seeds. Charleston will play Alabama next week, so they will lose. That will give them 2 losses, but both are to I-A teams. They will be 8-0 against I-AA teams. Coastal plays Liberty in the final week. If Coastal wins, they will get a Seed with a 10-1 record (all against I-AA). I think the Big South could get 2 Seeds, but it will depend on the other teams involved.

MEAC – The MEAC gave up their AQ to participate in a bowl versus the SWAC on ESPN, so the 1st place team will not make the playoffs. Could a 2nd place team be offered an At Large? I don't know...but it likely won't happen this year. A team would to have a really good resume to make that happen and none of this year's squads cut it.

MVC – The three top teams in the conference were able to overcome deficits to avoid being upset and keep their playoff resumes strong. Illinois State, NDSU, and SDSU will all be in the playoffs, so the AQ is not very important. If NDSU wins, they will get the AQ. (They would win the tie-breaker over Ill. State since Ill. State lost to a higher ranked team.) If NDSU loses and Ill. State wins, Ill. State gets the AQ. If somehow NDSU and Ill. State lose and SDSU wins, then the AQ goes to SDSU. But again, it doesn't really matter in terms of making the playoffs. Who will get Seeds, though? All three of them are likely to get Seeds if they win. If any of them lose, there's a decent chance they won't. In addition to those three teams, Northern Iowa will likely get an At Large with a win. They will be at 7 wins, will have a 5-game winning streak, no real bad losses, and some good wins.

NEC – Well, Bryant choked by losing to Sacred Heart so they are now out of the AQ race and the playoff race. The AQ will now come down to the Duquesne/StFU game – winner gets the AQ, loser stays home. The only team that could reach 7 wins here is StFU – and that win would get them the AQ – so do not expect any At Larges coming from here.

OVC – Jacksonville State continues to roll. Their win this past weekend has given them the AQ and now with a win next weekend, they should have the #1 Seed. In their last 6 games, they have beaten the other team by at least 20 points. (This includes games against the other top teams in the conference.) Behind Jacksonville State, we have EKU and Eastern Illinois. Both teams sit at 6 wins and they play each other next week, so only one of them will make it to 7. The winner will get an At Large. The loser will cross their fingers. Of the two, EKU is the one most in need of a win. If they were to lose, it would mean that they would have lost 3 of 4 games and would have no good wins. Eastern Illinois could make an argument with 6 wins since they did beat Tennessee-Martin, but they would need some luck. It's amazing to think that just a few years ago, the OVC was clearly a 2nd-tier conference. Now they have some strong teams at the top who will contend for the championship.

Patriot – Colgate did their job and won the AQ. They will not receive a Seed and will likely be paired up with a CAA or NEC team in the first round. In 2nd place is Fordham, who finished the year at 9-2 (with a win over Army). They will get an At Large and could possibly get one of the last Seeds. Since their regular season is over, that will all depend on what happens with other teams in the last week. That being said, it might be better for Fordham to get a team like Dayton or Duquesne in the first week of the playoffs – rather than the Bye. While it is good to have the rest, having 2 weeks off in a row and then facing a 2nd round team might be too much.

Pioneer – Dayton won and has taken the AQ. Now they have one more game to win in order to complete a perfect regular season. We'll see if an 11-0 season is enough to get them a Seed. The next question becomes: does it make sense for Dayton to stay in the Pioneer? I know they don't want to offer the scholarships, but I wonder what the difference would be when compared to something like the NEC. I would think the NEC would be a lot cheaper in terms of travel costs when compared to the Pioneer (Florida, California, Iowa, etc). While the NEC does offer some scholarships, I don't think it means Dayton would have to offer them. (And they have even proven this year that they can beat NEC teams without scholarship players.)

SoCon – It looks like the SoCon is set. Chattanooga beat the Citadel for the AQ this past weekend. Both teams now have 7 wins and will face I-A teams in the final week. I would guess that the Citadel will get an At Large. I wouldn't give a Seed to either team (unless they pull off a major upset next week). The Citadel has no strong wins while the Chatty has a bad loss.

Southland – McNeese had the chance to rest up this past weekend before they attempt to complete their “perfect” regular season. (I put “perfect” in quotes since their money game – and likely loss – against LSU was cancelled due to lightning.) Central Arkansas just picked up their 7th win, so they stand a good chance at getting an At Large, although none of their wins so far are that impressive. Next week, they will play Sam Houston – who also needs to get a signature win. If Central Arkansas wins, I think Sam Houston will be out. If Sam Houston wins, they will be in and Central Arkansas will be right on the bubble.

Great stuff as always Saxkow!

A lot of the bracket projections seem to think JMU will not get a seed, but that's we'd host the NEC winner before heading to W&M. Obviously I'd much rather have the bye, but I'd certainly rather host StFU instead of a SoCon/BS team. Guess we'll see.

Excellent info and recap. Appreciate all the work you do for making this readable. I don't hate FCS per se- I do like the playoff aspect. I do cringe when I see us competing in the playoffs w/ teams called Bryant or Sacred Heart though. At least people have heard of Colgate and Dayton. It'll be interesting to see how the CAA shakes out. Not a lot of teams overall in FCS to choose from this year.

(11-15-2015 10:38 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  CAA - Three teams are still going for the AQ with it all being based on two games: Richmond/W&M and JMU/Villanova. (JMU cannot get the AQ.) Here are the scenarios...If W&M wins, they get the AQ. If Richmond wins and JMU wins, Richmond gets the AQ. If, however, Richmond wins and Villanova wins, things get interesting. In this case, Richmond, W&M, and Villanova would all be tied atop the CAA so we would go to tie-breakers. First is head-to-head...they would all be 1-1 against each other. Next is common opponent...surprisingly, the only team they all played was JMU - which would all be wins. That also takes care of highest-ranked common opponent. Which means it comes down to the final tie-breaker - which is not the Sagarin. A few years ago, the CAA was in this situation and realized that these computer rankings come in too late to submit their AQ to the Playoff Committee. (My guess is the Committee has told conferences that if their Autobids are not selected by a certain time, that conference will not receive any Seeds.) So in 2013, the CAA changed the last tie-breaker to be a vote by CAA ADs whose teams are not involved. (I don't think they changed it since then.) Who knows how they would vote? As for At-Large spots, JMU should get one. W&M would get one if they don't get the AQ. Richmond (if they lose to W&M), Villanova (with a win over JMU), Towson (with a win over URI), and UNH (with a win over Maine) could all potentially be sitting with 7 wins. I would guess that 3 of those 4 teams would get in (so the CAA would have 5 total teams), so we need to eliminate one. UNH would likely get in - they would have won 4 straight and the Committee knows that they were without their QB for some of the losses. Villanova would be in since this means they would have also won 4 straight and beat Richmond and JMU in back-to-back weeks. So, it would come down to Richmond and Towson. Towson would have won their last 5 of 6 with a good win over Villanova. Richmond, meanwhile, would have lost 3 in a row...but they do have the win over JMU. It could be a coin flip, but I would give the spot to the Ticks based on Towson's loss to Elon. (Richmond would have no bad losses.)

Now that you mention it, I remember hearing about the tiebreaker change. However, when I was looking this up last week I found the 2015-16 CAA Football Handbook which lists the Sagarin rankings as the final tiebreaker. An earlier edition of the handbook did have the update, though.

(11-15-2015 11:05 PM)DooX Wrote:  Now that you mention it, I remember hearing about the tiebreaker change. However, when I was looking this up last week I found the 2015-16 CAA Football Handbook which lists the Sagarin rankings as the final tiebreaker. An earlier edition of the handbook did have the update, though.

You're right - I guess they re-re-did it and convinced Sagarin to update his standing early enough to allow them to use it. It is interesting to note that Sagarin no longer lists the ELO_CHESS in USA Today. Did he rename it? Or is the CAA going to use a different one?

(11-15-2015 10:38 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  Big South – Both Coastal and Charleston Southern won this week to improve their Seed chances. Both will be in the playoffs (with Charleston Southern as the AQ). Now we need to see if the Big South can get two Seeds. Charleston will play Alabama next week, so they will lose. That will give them 2 losses, but both are to I-A teams. They will be 8-0 against I-AA teams. Coastal plays Liberty in the final week. If Coastal wins, they will get a Seed with a 10-1 record (all against I-AA). I think the Big South could get 2 Seeds, but it will depend on the other teams involved.

.

If only one BS gets a seed if the comittee uses logic then it would be CSU. 8-0/6-0 vs I-AA vs CCU at 10-1/5-1 vs I-AA, with CSU beating CCU convincingly head to head...But maybe the commuttee won't use logic...Wouldn't be the 1st time.

(11-16-2015 02:43 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-15-2015 10:38 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  Big South – Both Coastal and Charleston Southern won this week to improve their Seed chances. Both will be in the playoffs (with Charleston Southern as the AQ). Now we need to see if the Big South can get two Seeds. Charleston will play Alabama next week, so they will lose. That will give them 2 losses, but both are to I-A teams. They will be 8-0 against I-AA teams. Coastal plays Liberty in the final week. If Coastal wins, they will get a Seed with a 10-1 record (all against I-AA). I think the Big South could get 2 Seeds, but it will depend on the other teams involved.

.

If only one BS gets a seed if the comittee uses logic then it would be CSU. 8-0/6-0 vs I-AA vs CCU at 10-1/5-1 vs I-AA, with CSU beating CCU convincingly head to head...But maybe the commuttee won't use logic...Wouldn't be the 1st time.

Exactly - the committee has ignored head-to-head results before. And if they were to go by GPI, the rankings from before this weekend's games put Coastal at #9 and CSU at #10. Obviously, those rankings will be updated tomorrow, so they could switch places...and then you will have CSU picking up a loss in the final week (but their SOS will go up).

Saxkow - thanks for breaking down the whole division. great work, and a great read as always.

Thanks for all the hard work. Didn't these also get emailed out via the Duke Club last year? How come they're not doing that again? Seems like a good way to start getting the more borderline fans excited about the playoffs.

(11-16-2015 10:08 AM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  Thanks for all the hard work. Didn't these also get emailed out via the Duke Club last year? How come they're not doing that again? Seems like a good way to start getting the more borderline fans excited about the playoffs.

They did, as I recall. Of course JMU was on the bubble heading into the final game last season, so maybe they wanted everyone to know how important that last game was or something.

JMU did send out an email yesterday that basically said "we're in" and spelled out nuts and bolts of FCS playoff selection, seeding, etc.

I've copied this from ProfessorChaos over on the AGS boards. It highlights the upcoming games this weekend of interest and I cut it to only include those potentially seeded playoff teams.

Autobids as they currently stand (locks)
1) Jacksonville St (9-1) vs Murray St (3-7) - DOES NOT MATTER, JSU GETS A SEED
2) McNeese St (9-0) at Lamar (5-5) - ANOTHER LOCK FOR A SEED
3) North Dakota St (8-2) vs Missouri St (1-9) NDSU PROBABLY A LOCK, BUT A LOSS HERE WOULD MEAN HELL FROZE OVER
4) Portland St (8-2) at Eastern Washington (6-4) ROOT FOR EWU
5) William & Mary (8-2) at Richmond (7-3) ROOT FOR RICHMOND????? THAT CAN'T BE RIGHT...
6) Charleston Southern (9-1) at Alabama (9-1) ROLL TIDE!!!
7) Chattanooga (8-2) at Florida St (8-2) GO CRIMINOLES!!
8) Dayton (10-0) at Drake (4-6) DAYTON LOSS WOULD BE FUNNY - NO SEED HERE
9) Duquesne (7-3) vs St Francis (6-3) NO SEED HERE
10) Colgate (6-4) vs Bucknell (4-6) NO SEED HERE

At large locks
1) South Dakota St (8-2) at Western Illinois (5-5) ROOT FOR WIU, BUT A LIKELY SDSU SEED
2) Illinois St (8-2) vs South Dakota (5-5) ROOT FOR USD, BUT A LIKELY ISU SEED
3) Coastal Carolina (9-1) at Liberty (5-5) ROOT FOR LIBERTY???? THAT CAN'T BE RIGHT...
4) James Madison (8-2) vs Villanova (6-4) GO DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKES!!!!!!!!!

Recap for JMU's best shot at a seed:
CAA - If Richmond (8-3) and JMU (9-2) win, could UR get the title but JMU the seed? It's happened before for other conferences.
Big South - Root for Liberty; Chuck South gets rolled by 'Bama.
Big Sky - Root for Eastern Washington; log jam for conference champ after PSU - I'd add root for Southern Utah (7-3) over Northern Arizona (7-3). In a weird scheduling year, SUU has not played 3 of the 5 best Big Sky teams.
MVFC - likely to get three seeds: ISU, NDSU, and SDSU. Would a 9-2 JMU get a seed over any of these teams at 8-3??? Probably not, but it is possible in the unlikely event any of these teams lose this weekend.
OVC - JSU is a lock. No other possible seeds.
Southland - McNeese St. is a lock. No other possible seeds.

Really, it looks like:
CAA - 1 (2 possible)
BigSouth - 1 (0-2 possible)
BigSky - 1
MVFC - 3
OVC - 1
Southland - 1

We need a really big win, and a really bad week for Big South. I doubt PSU loses its seed, and the other five are basically locks.

Key question: Is (9-2) JMU's resume > Chuck South (9-2 autobid) or Coastal Carolina (9-2 with a loss)? With no FCS losses, I think Chuck South has a better resume and makes it nearly impossible for JMU to secure a seed, even at 9-2.

(11-17-2015 06:33 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  I've copied this from ProfessorChaos over on the AGS boards. It highlights the upcoming games this weekend of interest and I cut it to only include those potentially seeded playoff teams.

Autobids as they currently stand (locks)
1) Jacksonville St (9-1) vs Murray St (3-7) - DOES NOT MATTER, JSU GETS A SEED
2) McNeese St (9-0) at Lamar (5-5) - ANOTHER LOCK FOR A SEED
3) North Dakota St (8-2) vs Missouri St (1-9) NDSU PROBABLY A LOCK, BUT A LOSS HERE WOULD MEAN HELL FROZE OVER
4) Portland St (8-2) at Eastern Washington (6-4) ROOT FOR EWU
5) William & Mary (8-2) at Richmond (7-3) ROOT FOR RICHMOND????? THAT CAN'T BE RIGHT...
6) Charleston Southern (9-1) at Alabama (9-1) ROLL TIDE!!!
7) Chattanooga (8-2) at Florida St (8-2) GO CRIMINOLES!!
8) Dayton (10-0) at Drake (4-6) DAYTON LOSS WOULD BE FUNNY - NO SEED HERE
9) Duquesne (7-3) vs St Francis (6-3) NO SEED HERE
10) Colgate (6-4) vs Bucknell (4-6) NO SEED HERE

At large locks
1) South Dakota St (8-2) at Western Illinois (5-5) ROOT FOR WIU, BUT A LIKELY SDSU SEED
2) Illinois St (8-2) vs South Dakota (5-5) ROOT FOR USD, BUT A LIKELY ISU SEED
3) Coastal Carolina (9-1) at Liberty (5-5) ROOT FOR LIBERTY???? THAT CAN'T BE RIGHT...
4) James Madison (8-2) vs Villanova (6-4) GO DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKES!!!!!!!!!

Recap for JMU's best shot at a seed:
CAA - If Richmond (8-3) and JMU (9-2) win, could UR get the title but JMU the seed? It's happened before for other conferences.
Big South - Root for Liberty; Chuck South gets rolled by 'Bama.
Big Sky - Root for Eastern Washington; log jam for conference champ after PSU - I'd add root for Southern Utah (7-3) over Northern Arizona (7-3). In a weird scheduling year, SUU has not played 3 of the 5 best Big Sky teams.
MVFC - likely to get three seeds: ISU, NDSU, and SDSU. Would a 9-2 JMU get a seed over any of these teams at 8-3??? Probably not, but it is possible in the unlikely event any of these teams lose this weekend.
OVC - JSU is a lock. No other possible seeds.
Southland - McNeese St. is a lock. No other possible seeds.

Really, it looks like:
CAA - 1 (2 possible)
BigSouth - 1 (0-2 possible)
BigSky - 1
MVFC - 3
OVC - 1
Southland - 1

We need a really big win, and a really bad week for Big South. I doubt PSU loses its seed, and the other five are basically locks.

Key question: Is (9-2) JMU's resume > Chuck South (9-2 autobid) or Coastal Carolina (9-2 with a loss)? With no FCS losses, I think Chuck South has a better resume and makes it nearly impossible for JMU to secure a seed, even at 9-2.

I think you're right and it's just not gonna happen. Only two points I'd make are 1) it's better for W&M to beat UR and just hope the CAA gets a second seed cause even at 9-2 JMU probably misses a seed to Conference Champ and head-to-head victor 8-3 UR and 2) PSU and ISUr are really the only realistic potential losses that could open spots.

At this point, I really just hope we host the NEC or Pioneer champ first round and avoid the BS/SoCon morass.

(11-17-2015 12:24 PM)PurpleStreamers Wrote:  

(11-17-2015 06:33 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  I've copied this from ProfessorChaos over on the AGS boards. It highlights the upcoming games this weekend of interest and I cut it to only include those potentially seeded playoff teams.

Autobids as they currently stand (locks)
1) Jacksonville St (9-1) vs Murray St (3-7) - DOES NOT MATTER, JSU GETS A SEED
2) McNeese St (9-0) at Lamar (5-5) - ANOTHER LOCK FOR A SEED
3) North Dakota St (8-2) vs Missouri St (1-9) NDSU PROBABLY A LOCK, BUT A LOSS HERE WOULD MEAN HELL FROZE OVER
4) Portland St (8-2) at Eastern Washington (6-4) ROOT FOR EWU
5) William & Mary (8-2) at Richmond (7-3) ROOT FOR RICHMOND????? THAT CAN'T BE RIGHT...
6) Charleston Southern (9-1) at Alabama (9-1) ROLL TIDE!!!
7) Chattanooga (8-2) at Florida St (8-2) GO CRIMINOLES!!
8) Dayton (10-0) at Drake (4-6) DAYTON LOSS WOULD BE FUNNY - NO SEED HERE
9) Duquesne (7-3) vs St Francis (6-3) NO SEED HERE
10) Colgate (6-4) vs Bucknell (4-6) NO SEED HERE

At large locks
1) South Dakota St (8-2) at Western Illinois (5-5) ROOT FOR WIU, BUT A LIKELY SDSU SEED
2) Illinois St (8-2) vs South Dakota (5-5) ROOT FOR USD, BUT A LIKELY ISU SEED
3) Coastal Carolina (9-1) at Liberty (5-5) ROOT FOR LIBERTY???? THAT CAN'T BE RIGHT...
4) James Madison (8-2) vs Villanova (6-4) GO DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKES!!!!!!!!!

Recap for JMU's best shot at a seed:
CAA - If Richmond (8-3) and JMU (9-2) win, could UR get the title but JMU the seed? It's happened before for other conferences.
Big South - Root for Liberty; Chuck South gets rolled by 'Bama.
Big Sky - Root for Eastern Washington; log jam for conference champ after PSU - I'd add root for Southern Utah (7-3) over Northern Arizona (7-3). In a weird scheduling year, SUU has not played 3 of the 5 best Big Sky teams.
MVFC - likely to get three seeds: ISU, NDSU, and SDSU. Would a 9-2 JMU get a seed over any of these teams at 8-3??? Probably not, but it is possible in the unlikely event any of these teams lose this weekend.
OVC - JSU is a lock. No other possible seeds.
Southland - McNeese St. is a lock. No other possible seeds.

Really, it looks like:
CAA - 1 (2 possible)
BigSouth - 1 (0-2 possible)
BigSky - 1
MVFC - 3
OVC - 1
Southland - 1

We need a really big win, and a really bad week for Big South. I doubt PSU loses its seed, and the other five are basically locks.

Key question: Is (9-2) JMU's resume > Chuck South (9-2 autobid) or Coastal Carolina (9-2 with a loss)? With no FCS losses, I think Chuck South has a better resume and makes it nearly impossible for JMU to secure a seed, even at 9-2.

I think you're right and it's just not gonna happen. Only two points I'd make are 1) it's better for W&M to beat UR and just hope the CAA gets a second seed cause even at 9-2 JMU probably misses a seed to Conference Champ and head-to-head victor 8-3 UR and 2) PSU and ISUr are really the only realistic potential losses that could open spots.

At this point, I really just hope we host the NEC or Pioneer champ first round and avoid the BS/SoCon morass.

I'm not so sure an 8-3 RU would get a seed over 9-2 JMU. Richmond's losses are worse than JMU's and JMU has a win over an FBS (no matter how bad they are). It wouldn't be unprecedented to have the conference champ not get a seed but someone within their conference does as it just happened last year with Liberty and Coastal.

If JMU beats Villanova and finishes 9-2, I like our seed chances if any one of the following occurs:

-Illinois St loses to USD
-SDSU loses to WIU
-NDSU loses to Missouri St (lol)
-Portland State AND SUU lose

Coastal losing to Liberty can't hurt either, but I just don't see the committee giving the Big South two seeds.

What's better - W&M to beat Richmond and keep a seed, or Richmond to beat W&M? Assuming a JMU win and a Richmond win, would any of these 3 stand to get a seed moreso than another?

(11-17-2015 01:31 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  What's better - W&M to beat Richmond and keep a seed, or Richmond to beat W&M? Assuming a JMU win and a Richmond win, would any of these 3 stand to get a seed moreso than another?

We want UR to beat WM and give them 3 losses.

a 9-2 JMU > 8-3 WM and 8-3 UR particularly when JMU has an FBS win ( Nerds / ticks don't) and we have NO bad losses ( UR/ WM do- at least relative to our losses).

Head to Head will not matter as much to committee when you compare overall resume and W/L record

In this case there is a real chance we could get a seed ahead of WM and UR ...

(11-17-2015 01:31 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  What's better - W&M to beat Richmond and keep a seed, or Richmond to beat W&M? Assuming a JMU win and a Richmond win, would any of these 3 stand to get a seed moreso than another?

I think it's better if Richmond wins. We would then be CAA co-champs with a better overall record.

(11-17-2015 01:52 PM)jmufbs Wrote:  

(11-17-2015 01:31 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  What's better - W&M to beat Richmond and keep a seed, or Richmond to beat W&M? Assuming a JMU win and a Richmond win, would any of these 3 stand to get a seed moreso than another?

We want UR to beat WM and give them 3 losses.

a 9-2 JMU > 8-3 WM and 8-3 UR particularly when JMU has an FBS win ( Nerds / ticks don't) and we have NO bad losses ( UR/ WM do- at least relative to our losses).

Head to Head will not matter as much to committee when you compare overall resume and W/L record

In this case there is a real chance we could get a seed ahead of WM and UR ...

You might be right about this after all when you think about overall resumes. Just no way I can root for Ticks.

(11-17-2015 01:56 PM)PurpleStreamers Wrote:  You might be right about this after all when you think about overall resumes. Just no way I can root for Ticks.

Haha, agreed. Especially when you consider Richmond will be squarely on the playoff bubble if they lose.

(11-17-2015 01:30 PM)Pitz Wrote:  If JMU beats Villanova and finishes 9-2, I like our seed chances if any one of the following occurs:

-Illinois St loses to USD
-SDSU loses to WIU
-NDSU loses to Missouri St (lol)
-Portland State AND SUU lose

Coastal losing to Liberty can't hurt either, but I just don't see the committee giving the Big South two seeds.

Pretty much agree but would add a little, stating a little differently what has already been said by others. Going to take 9 wins I think for a seed (10 for CCU). As already pointed out, JSU and McNeese locks for 2 seeds. After CSU gets rolled by Bama they could get a 3rd seed at around 8. Still 6 more teams that could get that 9th win (10 for CCU) ahead of JMU in the pecking order, and if they all win along with JMU, I see that putting JMU about 10th in the pecking order for a top 8 seed. So need 2 of them to lose. If JMU beats VU and 2 of the below lose, then I think JMU will snag a seed..
-Illinois St loses to USD
-SDSU loses to WIU
-NDSU loses to Missouri St
-Portland State loses to EWU
-W&M loses to UR
-CCU loses to Liberty

Yeah, the BS getting 2 seeds would be BS, and CCU getting a seed over JMU would be BS (0-1 vs playoff and have beaten 1 team with winning record- 6-4 SC State), but you never know with the committee)..

All of those, while being an upset, have a realistic chance of happening except NDSU/Missouri State- not a snowball's chance in hell.

-SUU I don't think can get a seed- already have 3 losses..
-Goes without saying UTC will be rolled by FSU for a 3rd loss...