This would be really fun to see for a conference that has taken the nickname "One True Champion."

Baylor beats OSU, TCU, but loses to Texas (2 losses)
Oklahoma beats OSU, loses to TCU (2 losses)
Okie St loses to TCU, Oklahoma (2 losses)
TCU beats Oklahoma, loses to Baylor (2 losses)

That would end up in a 4-way tie with each team having 2 losses. I know an easy way to break that (highest ranking), but I am not sure how the conference would break it. Also, this is the only way I see the 4-way working out since Okie St has to have 2 losses and they currently have none.

Here is another scenario, with a higher chance of happening:
TCU loses to both Baylor and Oklahoma (three losses)
Okie St beats Baylor, loses to Oklahoma (one loss)
Baylor loses to Okie St, beats TCU and Texas (one loss)
Oklahoma beats TCU and Okie St (one loss)

There you have a three-way tie, and I believe that Oklahoma would get the tiebreaker since they beat the other two. But, is a loss to a lower pack team really better than a loss to a top tier team? Doesn't make sense to me, but I think Oklahoma is the best overall team right now. Ironic that a bad loss to a lower-tier Texas is technically not as bad as a loss to a better team. Still, it would be a three-way tie for the title in any sane conference, even if only one team can be the representative.

I think the Big 12 also needs to really worry about another scenario: Baylor winning out, and Okie St losing to Baylor but beating OU. The head-to-head gives Baylor the edge, but Baylor doesn't have a championship game and they played an awful OOC with FCS, SMU (#110) and Rice (#107), though not quite as bad as in-conference Kansas (#116). Notre Dame doesn't have a conference game and has a few poor teams in UMass (#112), Wake Forest (#95), and Boston College (#87). But, ND didn't play an FCS, and I think the committee and college football in general are really looking down on those games now. It could very well be like last year all over again for the Big 12 unless Oklahoma wins out.

In this hypothetical scenario, Oklahoma's head-to-head wins over TCU, OK State, and Baylor should make them the champions. Winning a round robin conference isn't necessarily the same thing as being the best team. This is where the Big 12 is disadvantaged by their lack of CCG.

I would rather see them be required to expand, but if the NCAA lets them stay at 10 and have a CCG anyways, and this hypothetical happened in a future season, then the second team in would be Oklahoma State for beating TCU and Baylor.

Maybe still not the best two teams, but with one more game under their belts, they may end up being seen as such.

The worst-case scenario for the XII is any scenario in which their champion does not make the playoff. Plain and simple.

The true nightmare scenario is if their champion is OU at 11-1, and they still miss the playoff.

Because their president would announce that OU is leaving the conference the next Monday. That would be the beginning of the end of the XII as a P conference.

Its probably pretty likely OU goes 11-1. If ND and Clemson win out, i think those 2 are in for sure even with OU at 11-1. The texas loss is gonna kill them with the longhorns probably under .500 Thus, OU would be out since i can't see them jumping the big 10 or SEC champ if they have 1 loss or less.

Yeah the Oklahoma loss to Texas could easily kill them vs Notre Dame.

(11-17-2015 10:55 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Its probably pretty likely OU goes 11-1. If ND and Clemson win out, i think those 2 are in for sure even with OU at 11-1. The texas loss is gonna kill them with the longhorns probably under .500 Thus, OU would be out since i can't see them jumping the big 10 or SEC champ if they have 1 loss or less.

And then kiss the modern XII goodbye.

It's only right, with all the damage and hard feelings that (certain) old SWC caused in the marriage, that the death blow is delivered by an old Big 8 school.

Weird things happen when everybody plays everybody else. Look at the Big East in '04 and 2010.

Who knows what an 11-1 OU being left out would mean for the big 12. It could KO the league with OU leaving or at the very least they expand to 12. I wouldn't be shocked if expansion happens but it might change the emphasis to football power school's. At this point, i still think the best 2 football brands outside of the p5 are byu and boise, so maybe they get a new look. Yet, i could see a compromise with Houston and BYU to get to 12 and go to 8 league games.

Big 12
E: OU, OK state, KU, KSU, ISU, WVU
W: Tex, Tex Tech, Houston, TCU, Baylor, BYU

(11-17-2015 11:21 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Who knows what an 11-1 OU being left out would mean for the big 12. It could KO the league with OU leaving or at the very least they expand to 12. I wouldn't be shocked if expansion happens but it might change the emphasis to football power school's. At this point, i still think the best 2 football brands outside of the p5 are byu and boise, so maybe they get a new look. Yet, i could see a compromise with Houston and BYU to get to 12 and go to 8 league games.

Big 12
E: OU, OK state, KU, KSU, ISU, WVU
W: Tex, Tex Tech, Houston, TCU, Baylor, BYU

oh yeah, go to 8 league games so Baylor can get another ******* cupcake. Brilliant.

(11-17-2015 10:18 AM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  This would be really fun to see for a conference that has taken the nickname "One True Champion."

Baylor beats OSU, TCU, but loses to Texas (2 losses)
Oklahoma beats OSU, loses to TCU (2 losses)
Okie St loses to TCU, Oklahoma (2 losses)
TCU beats Oklahoma, loses to Baylor (2 losses)

That would end up in a 4-way tie with each team having 2 losses. I know an easy way to break that (highest ranking), but I am not sure how the conference would break it. Also, this is the only way I see the 4-way working out since Okie St has to have 2 losses and they currently have none.

Here is another scenario, with a higher chance of happening:
TCU loses to both Baylor and Oklahoma (three losses)
Okie St beats Baylor, loses to Oklahoma (one loss)
Baylor loses to Okie St, beats TCU and Texas (one loss)
Oklahoma beats TCU and Okie St (one loss)

There you have a three-way tie, and I believe that Oklahoma would get the tiebreaker since they beat the other two. But, is a loss to a lower pack team really better than a loss to a top tier team? Doesn't make sense to me, but I think Oklahoma is the best overall team right now. Ironic that a bad loss to a lower-tier Texas is technically not as bad as a loss to a better team. Still, it would be a three-way tie for the title in any sane conference, even if only one team can be the representative.

I think the Big 12 also needs to really worry about another scenario: Baylor winning out, and Okie St losing to Baylor but beating OU. The head-to-head gives Baylor the edge, but Baylor doesn't have a championship game and they played an awful OOC with FCS, SMU (#110) and Rice (#107), though not quite as bad as in-conference Kansas (#116). Notre Dame doesn't have a conference game and has a few poor teams in UMass (#112), Wake Forest (#95), and Boston College (#87). But, ND didn't play an FCS, and I think the committee and college football in general are really looking down on those games now. It could very well be like last year all over again for the Big 12 unless Oklahoma wins out.

In your second scenario, if Baylor loses to OSU and beats TCU and Texas they would have two losses, not one. They lost Saturday to OU. So OU would be the champ in a two way tie because they would have beaten OSU head to head.

This is the kind of chaos I would support. Baylor and Oklahoma would drop out because they lost to Texas (the worst loss). Then it would go to head to head between TCU and OK St. Ok St. wins.

(11-17-2015 11:51 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  This is the kind of chaos I would support. Baylor and Oklahoma would drop out because they lost to Texas (the worst loss). Then it would go to head to head between TCU and OK St. Ok St. wins.

Nobody uses that kind of tiebreak. They use games vs. each other. Without looking up the Big 12 tiebreaker, Baylor and OU would both be 2-1 and OU beat Baylor. So OU would win.

(11-17-2015 11:26 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-17-2015 11:21 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Who knows what an 11-1 OU being left out would mean for the big 12. It could KO the league with OU leaving or at the very least they expand to 12. I wouldn't be shocked if expansion happens but it might change the emphasis to football power school's. At this point, i still think the best 2 football brands outside of the p5 are byu and boise, so maybe they get a new look. Yet, i could see a compromise with Houston and BYU to get to 12 and go to 8 league games.

Big 12
E: OU, OK state, KU, KSU, ISU, WVU
W: Tex, Tex Tech, Houston, TCU, Baylor, BYU

oh yeah, go to 8 league games so Baylor can get another ******* cupcake. Brilliant.

Big XII absolutely needs to adopt the ACC/B1G/SEC rule requiring at least one P5 non-conference opponent (and don't water it down the way the Big Ten has done!)

This might end up being a nightmare for ESPN as well with nobody west of Alabama in the playoffs.

(11-17-2015 11:51 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  This is the kind of chaos I would support. Baylor and Oklahoma would drop out because they lost to Texas (the worst loss). Then it would go to head to head between TCU and OK St. Ok St. wins.

nope...

the 4 teams would be placed in a mini conference. The games between each other would matter...
Baylor 2-1
Oklahoma 2-1
TCU 1-2
Oklahoma St 1-2

Oklahoma beat Baylor, so they are champions.

(11-17-2015 11:57 AM)bullet Wrote:  This might end up being a nightmare for ESPN as well with nobody west of Alabama in the playoffs.

As a general principle, yeah, but I think ESPN would gladly accept the risk of possible apathy in the west if they get a playoff that includes Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State.

(11-17-2015 10:18 AM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  This would be really fun to see for a conference that has taken the nickname "One True Champion."

Baylor beats OSU, TCU, but loses to Texas (2 losses)
Oklahoma beats OSU, loses to TCU (2 losses)
Okie St loses to TCU, Oklahoma (2 losses)
TCU beats Oklahoma, loses to Baylor (2 losses)

That would end up in a 4-way tie with each team having 2 losses. I know an easy way to break that (highest ranking), but I am not sure how the conference would break it. Also, this is the only way I see the 4-way working out since Okie St has to have 2 losses and they currently have none.

Here is another scenario, with a higher chance of happening:
TCU loses to both Baylor and Oklahoma (three losses)
Okie St beats Baylor, loses to Oklahoma (one loss)
Baylor loses to Okie St, beats TCU and Texas (one loss)
Oklahoma beats TCU and Okie St (one loss)

There you have a three-way tie, and I believe that Oklahoma would get the tiebreaker since they beat the other two. But, is a loss to a lower pack team really better than a loss to a top tier team? Doesn't make sense to me, but I think Oklahoma is the best overall team right now. Ironic that a bad loss to a lower-tier Texas is technically not as bad as a loss to a better team. Still, it would be a three-way tie for the title in any sane conference, even if only one team can be the representative.

I think the Big 12 also needs to really worry about another scenario: Baylor winning out, and Okie St losing to Baylor but beating OU. The head-to-head gives Baylor the edge, but Baylor doesn't have a championship game and they played an awful OOC with FCS, SMU (#110) and Rice (#107), though not quite as bad as in-conference Kansas (#116). Notre Dame doesn't have a conference game and has a few poor teams in UMass (#112), Wake Forest (#95), and Boston College (#87). But, ND didn't play an FCS, and I think the committee and college football in general are really looking down on those games now. It could very well be like last year all over again for the Big 12 unless Oklahoma wins out.

This is far from a nightmare scenario, as not even the biggest Big 12 homers could complain about being left out. There is being left out when you are good enough to be in the playoff and there is being left out when you really don't have an argument. The latter is no big deal.

I do think 11-1 OU getting left out is a bad scenario for the league, as OU is actually probably a playoff worthy team. Strong, balanced offense and a solid defense. Early season hiccup against an inferior team in a rival game but very strong since then. Reminds me of Ohio State last year.

I think if OU wins out (which I expect), things will take care of themselves and they will likely make it. There will be more attrition ahead of them. And even if there isn't more attrition, there will be at a minimum intense debate about their chances, especially if they end up looking impressive these last few weeks.

(11-17-2015 12:05 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-17-2015 11:57 AM)bullet Wrote:  This might end up being a nightmare for ESPN as well with nobody west of Alabama in the playoffs.

As a general principle, yeah, but I think ESPN would gladly accept the risk of possible apathy in the west if they get a playoff that includes Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State.

Agreed.

Notre Dame fills in for the PAC, this year. They're national and have rivalries in the West. The West will root for ND.

(11-17-2015 11:44 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  In your second scenario, if Baylor loses to OSU and beats TCU and Texas they would have two losses, not one. They lost Saturday to OU. So OU would be the champ in a two way tie because they would have beaten OSU head to head.

Thanks for the correction. I was trying to come up with a three-way tie for first with one loss, but that would be impossible with a head-to-head competition.

In a few minutes of trying I was not able to come up with any options where 2 losses could result in a 3-way tie. I really think we will have some tie at the top of the Big 12 again this year. The conference commissioner may be explicit in rewarding only one, but I think the playoff committee will look at it as a shared title.

(11-17-2015 12:37 PM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  

(11-17-2015 11:44 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  In your second scenario, if Baylor loses to OSU and beats TCU and Texas they would have two losses, not one. They lost Saturday to OU. So OU would be the champ in a two way tie because they would have beaten OSU head to head.

Thanks for the correction. I was trying to come up with a three-way tie for first with one loss, but that would be impossible with a head-to-head competition.

In a few minutes of trying I was not able to come up with any options where 2 losses could result in a 3-way tie. I really think we will have some tie at the top of the Big 12 again this year. The conference commissioner may be explicit in rewarding only one, but I think the playoff committee will look at it as a shared title.

If OU defeats OSU in Bedlam and they tie at 11-1, I don't think it will be the same as last year. For one thing, that will be billed as a de facto champ game heading in. For another, the winning team will get the championship trophy immediately following on the field. Last year Baylor beat TCU in October. There was a lot of time in between that game and the end.

I don't think the committee will look at it as a shared title.