The race for the Access Bowl is heading into the final stretch and ultimately only the five conference champions will be considered so I thought it would be fun to take a look at the contenders:

American Conference East-

#23 Temple 7-1
Remaining games -
@ SMU
@ USF
#15 Memphis
UConn

In the American East Temple is practically a lock for the Division crown and will probably finish 11-1 or 10-2. Should Temple win the American Championship game at 12-1 they would be the Access Rep but if it is at 11-2 things would get iffy.

American Conference West-

#18 Houston 8-0
Remaining games -
Cincinnati
#15 Memphis
@ UConn
Navy

To win the American West Houston will have to get past Memphis at home. I think they will do that and provided they don't slip up vs one of the other tough teams still to be played they probably will win the west at 12-0 and I also believe a 13-0 or even 12-1 Houston as American Champs would get the access bowl slot.

#15 Memphis 8-0
Remaining games-
Navy
@ #18 Houston
@ #23 Temple
SMU

For Memphis to win the West they would have to beat three of the top 4 teams in the American in consecutive weeks. I don't think they will do that but if they did they would probably be the most deserving team in the G5. I think at best Memphis goes 2-2 over the last 4 games but like Temple or Houston if they were to win the American at 13-0 or 12-1 They would be the Access Bowl Rep.

Also with a shot is Navy but they would have to win out and that is not likely

CUSA-

Marshall 8-1
Remaining games-
@ MTSU
Florida Int
@ WKU

Marshall has to win out to have a shot at the Access Bowl but I don't think they will do that. It is most likely they drop one or even two more games and are not even division champs.

WKU 7-2
Remaining games-
Florida Atl
@Florida Int
Marshall

To me WKU has the best shot of winning out in CUSA but even if they do and go 11-2 they will still need the American Champ to be an 11-2 or worse Temple to have a shot.

LA Tech is most probably going to win the West and while with three loses they do not have shot at the Access Bowl they could serve as spoiler for Marshall or WKU.

MAC East-

Bowling Green 6-2
Remaining games-
Ohio
@ W. Mich
#20 Toledo
@ Ball St

Bowling Green would have to win out to be in Access Bowl consideration and to do that they would have to most likely beat #20 Toledo twice. Should they pull off this almost insurmountable task they would deserve consideration but would also need an American Champ with 2 losses.

MAC West-

#20 Toledo 7-0
Remaining games-
N. Illinois
@ Cent. Mich
@ Bowling Green
W. Mich

Toledo is about to run the MAC gauntlet and should they survive it at 13-0 or 12-1 they should be in the hunt. A 13-0 Toledo is the only real contender to an undefeated or one loss American school.

Like LA Tech in CUSA the MAC's chances could be derailed by W. Michigan who could still be a 3-loss MAC champ should they win out.

Mountain West-

Boise St 7-2
Remaining games-
New Mexico
AF
@ San Jose St

Like several others Boise will need to win out and have a weak American Champ to be considered. But should it come to that they have the history to probably put them at the top of the non-American teams to be considered.

In the MWC 3-loss Air Force or San Diego St could spoil the Broncos party.

As far as the Sun Belt goes we are probably on the outside looking in anyway especially without a Championship Game but IMHO only App St would probably get any kind of look by the committee should they win out.

(11-02-2015 01:26 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  As far as the Sun Belt goes we are probably on the outside looking in

Probably? Did you really say, probably?

It's almost surely going to be the winner of Houston/Memphis in the AACCG. Toledo only gets in if they go undefeated and both Houston and Memphis have at least 1 loss.

CUSA, MWC, and SBC are out barring any absolutely crazy and unlikely scenarios.

(11-02-2015 02:07 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  It's almost surely going to be the winner of Houston/Memphis in the AACCG. Toledo only gets in if they go undefeated and both Houston and Memphis have at least 1 loss.

CUSA, MWC, and SBC are out barring any absolutely crazy and unlikely scenarios.

It's a shame too with the season Toledo has had. But Houston has been dominant and beat Louisville and Vandy for P5 wins. I still think Toledos P5 wins are better but it won't matter.

Though undefeated, Houston has yet to play a team with a winning record.

It actually can help us that the other conferences have a championship game and we don't. I am following this pretty closely just for fun. There are still scenarios where an 11-1 App State is the best candidate. Remember only conference champions are considered, which for the other leagues means they have to win the conference championship game.

Who is your Access Bowl selection from these choices?:

9-4, unranked South Florida
10-3, unranked Louisiana Tech
10-3, unranked Western Michigan
10-3, unranked San Diego State
11-1, #23 Appalachian State

That scenario is still in play. Yes, South Florida must go on an unlikely tear to eliminate all the AAC contenders (Cincinnati is still in it as well despite already losing to Temple), but it's still fun to look at the scenarios.

If Memphis goes undefeated and Ole Miss wins the SEC, it will be very interesting to see how the committee views the Memphis season. They are 8-0 and to get to 13-0 they will have to beat Navy (6-1), win at Houston, win at Temple and then beat Temple again in the American Conference CCG.
That is not an easy path to 13-0 and with a win over Ole Miss they would have a pretty strong case for being one of the four playoff teams.

(11-02-2015 10:26 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  If Memphis goes undefeated and Ole Miss wins the SEC, it will be very interesting to see how the committee views the Memphis season. They are 8-0 and to get to 13-0 they will have to beat Navy (6-1), win at Houston, win at Temple and then beat Temple again in the American Conference CCG.
That is not an easy path to 13-0 and with a win over Ole Miss they would have a pretty strong case for being one of the four playoff teams.

When I was in Memphis last week, the local radio was talking about Memphis possibilities for the CFP. I think they jumping way far ahead since they arent even a lock for the access bowl yet.

Memphis isn't going to the CFP because their name is Memphis. And as soon as their coach takes one of the fifty+ openings this off-season they will go back to being the normal old loser Memphis.

If they win out though, they deserve the chance to get smoked by Alabama or Michigan State in the AccessBowl.

App State has pretty much zero chances unless Memphis, Houston, Toledo, Temple and Boise State all tank the rest of their season. Also didn't Memphis beat Ole Miss, which Alabama was unable to do? Why exactly would you assume they'd get smoked by Alabama?

(11-03-2015 12:25 PM)AlwaysSunny Wrote:  App State has pretty much zero chances unless Memphis, Houston, Toledo, Temple and Boise State all tank the rest of their season. Also didn't Memphis beat Ole Miss, which Alabama was unable to do? Why exactly would you assume they'd get smoked by Alabama?

Again, only conference champions are considered. So they don't have to tank the rest of the season, they just have to lose their conference championship games. As mentioned, this is problematic in the AAC because there are so many great candidates. South Florida and an outside chance of Cincinnati are our only hopes.

(11-03-2015 12:33 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 12:25 PM)AlwaysSunny Wrote:  App State has pretty much zero chances unless Memphis, Houston, Toledo, Temple and Boise State all tank the rest of their season. Also didn't Memphis beat Ole Miss, which Alabama was unable to do? Why exactly would you assume they'd get smoked by Alabama?

Again, only conference champions are considered. So they don't have to tank the rest of the season, they just have to lose their conference championship games. As mentioned, this is problematic in the AAC because there are so many great candidates. South Florida and an outside chance of Cincinnati are our only hopes.

The AAC Championship game will very likely be Temple vs either Memphis or Houston. The winner gets the Access bowl unless Toledo is 13-0 at the end of the season. South Florida and Cincinnati are both two games behind Temple in the East division.

Either USF or Cincinnati will lose at least one more game since they both play each other. Cincinnati already lost to Temple, so a division tie goes to Temple. USF will have to win at East Carolina, then beat Temple at home and then beat Cincinnati at home. Temple also has to lose a 2nd conference game for USF to catch them. Highly unlikely for all of these things to happen.

Because of the strength of their conference this year, the AAC will be helped by a Conference Championship Game.

(11-03-2015 12:33 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 12:25 PM)AlwaysSunny Wrote:  App State has pretty much zero chances unless Memphis, Houston, Toledo, Temple and Boise State all tank the rest of their season. Also didn't Memphis beat Ole Miss, which Alabama was unable to do? Why exactly would you assume they'd get smoked by Alabama?

Again, only conference champions are considered. So they don't have to tank the rest of the season, they just have to lose their conference championship games. As mentioned, this is problematic in the AAC because there are so many great candidates. South Florida and an outside chance of Cincinnati are our only hopes.

Nice catch. Are we 100% sure on the conf champion. I always heard highest ranked. That would be epic if all the other higher ranked teams got upset in the CCG.

(11-03-2015 01:09 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 12:33 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 12:25 PM)AlwaysSunny Wrote:  App State has pretty much zero chances unless Memphis, Houston, Toledo, Temple and Boise State all tank the rest of their season. Also didn't Memphis beat Ole Miss, which Alabama was unable to do? Why exactly would you assume they'd get smoked by Alabama?

Again, only conference champions are considered. So they don't have to tank the rest of the season, they just have to lose their conference championship games. As mentioned, this is problematic in the AAC because there are so many great candidates. South Florida and an outside chance of Cincinnati are our only hopes.

The AAC Championship game will very likely be Temple vs either Memphis or Houston. The winner gets the Access bowl unless Toledo is 13-0 at the end of the season. South Florida and Cincinnati are both two games behind Temple in the East division.

Either USF or Cincinnati will lose at least one more game since they both play each other. Cincinnati already lost to Temple, so a division tie goes to Temple. USF will have to win at East Carolina, then beat Temple at home and then beat Cincinnati at home. Temple also has to lose a 2nd conference game for USF to catch them. Highly unlikely for all of these things to happen.

Because of the strength of their conference this year, the AAC will be helped by a Conference Championship Game.

I'm fully aware how long of a shot it is. I've been following this the whole year. It is just simply inaccurate to say that all of those teams have to tank their season for App to sneak in. "All" that has to happen is for the favorites to lose their conference championship games. Let's go USF.

(11-03-2015 01:14 PM)JCGSU Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 12:33 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  

(11-03-2015 12:25 PM)AlwaysSunny Wrote:  App State has pretty much zero chances unless Memphis, Houston, Toledo, Temple and Boise State all tank the rest of their season. Also didn't Memphis beat Ole Miss, which Alabama was unable to do? Why exactly would you assume they'd get smoked by Alabama?

Again, only conference champions are considered. So they don't have to tank the rest of the season, they just have to lose their conference championship games. As mentioned, this is problematic in the AAC because there are so many great candidates. South Florida and an outside chance of Cincinnati are our only hopes.

Nice catch. Are we 100% sure on the conf champion. I always heard highest ranked. That would be epic if all the other higher ranked teams got upset in the CCG.

Positive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...inal-games

(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  It actually can help us that the other conferences have a championship game and we don't. I am following this pretty closely just for fun. There are still scenarios where an 11-1 App State is the best candidate. Remember only conference champions are considered, which for the other leagues means they have to win the conference championship game.

Who is your Access Bowl selection from these choices?:

9-4, unranked South Florida
10-3, unranked Louisiana Tech
10-3, unranked Western Michigan
10-3, unranked San Diego State
11-1, #23 Appalachian State

That scenario is still in play. Yes, South Florida must go on an unlikely tear to eliminate all the AAC contenders (Cincinnati is still in it as well despite already losing to Temple), but it's still fun to look at the scenarios.

The choice here is pretty obvious. The only question is how much Tech would be favored by in the Access Bowl.

(11-03-2015 01:18 PM)BRtransplant Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  It actually can help us that the other conferences have a championship game and we don't. I am following this pretty closely just for fun. There are still scenarios where an 11-1 App State is the best candidate. Remember only conference champions are considered, which for the other leagues means they have to win the conference championship game.

Who is your Access Bowl selection from these choices?:

9-4, unranked South Florida
10-3, unranked Louisiana Tech
10-3, unranked Western Michigan
10-3, unranked San Diego State
11-1, #23 Appalachian State

That scenario is still in play. Yes, South Florida must go on an unlikely tear to eliminate all the AAC contenders (Cincinnati is still in it as well despite already losing to Temple), but it's still fun to look at the scenarios.

The choice here is pretty obvious. The only question is how much Tech would be favored by in the Access Bowl.

I'm rooting for you guys!






(Well, kind of. Would rather see Southern Miss)

(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  It actually can help us that the other conferences have a championship game and we don't. I am following this pretty closely just for fun. There are still scenarios where an 11-1 App State is the best candidate. Remember only conference champions are considered, which for the other leagues means they have to win the conference championship game.

Who is your Access Bowl selection from these choices?:

9-4, unranked South Florida
10-3, unranked Louisiana Tech
10-3, unranked Western Michigan
10-3, unranked San Diego State
11-1, #23 Appalachian State

That scenario is still in play. Yes, South Florida must go on an unlikely tear to eliminate all the AAC contenders (Cincinnati is still in it as well despite already losing to Temple), but it's still fun to look at the scenarios.

There is no scenario where you beat out the AAC champ.

(11-03-2015 02:23 PM)panama Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  It actually can help us that the other conferences have a championship game and we don't. I am following this pretty closely just for fun. There are still scenarios where an 11-1 App State is the best candidate. Remember only conference champions are considered, which for the other leagues means they have to win the conference championship game.

Who is your Access Bowl selection from these choices?:

9-4, unranked South Florida
10-3, unranked Louisiana Tech
10-3, unranked Western Michigan
10-3, unranked San Diego State
11-1, #23 Appalachian State

That scenario is still in play. Yes, South Florida must go on an unlikely tear to eliminate all the AAC contenders (Cincinnati is still in it as well despite already losing to Temple), but it's still fun to look at the scenarios.

There is no scenario where you beat out the AAC champ.

Did you choose to ignore the rest of that post? In your opinion, is a 9-4, unranked South Florida a better candidate than an 11-1, #23 App State? If not, then yes, there is a scenario where we beat out the AAC champ.

(11-03-2015 02:23 PM)panama Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 10:01 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  It actually can help us that the other conferences have a championship game and we don't. I am following this pretty closely just for fun. There are still scenarios where an 11-1 App State is the best candidate. Remember only conference champions are considered, which for the other leagues means they have to win the conference championship game.

Who is your Access Bowl selection from these choices?:

9-4, unranked South Florida
10-3, unranked Louisiana Tech
10-3, unranked Western Michigan
10-3, unranked San Diego State
11-1, #23 Appalachian State

That scenario is still in play. Yes, South Florida must go on an unlikely tear to eliminate all the AAC contenders (Cincinnati is still in it as well despite already losing to Temple), but it's still fun to look at the scenarios.

There is no scenario where you beat out the AAC champ.

USF could win it. Are you saying a four loss USF gets in over a 11-1 App?