RE: If the SEC did expand again and did so from the ACC who should we take and why?
Given the recent news that an ACCN is not forthcoming on any kind of timely manner and the economic disparity between the ACC and their two next door neighbors, and given that Notre Dame has given no indication that a full membership is in the offing and that both Texas and North Carolina are cooling way down on the idea of Texas being extended any kind of partial membership or full membership in the ACC this question must be revisited.
I think that the likelihood that either or both of the Big 10 and SEC could expand out of the ACC is rising again. Clearly both conferences could profit from Eastern expansion into Virginia and North Carolina. I think both could go to 16 from the ACC roster. But given proximity, markets and brands they both will be tempted to be a bit greedier while they can. I don't think 20 gives either of them 6 profitable additions. But I do believe that both could find combinations of 4 that would be profitable.
Strategically taking 4 apiece keeps both the SEC and Big 10 in a position where their strength and advantage over the Big 12 could keep some Big 12 schools in the mix for the future, or could put enough pressure on the Big 12 and PAC that a merger of those two could reduce the number of P5 conferences to 3, each covered by a network, enriched by the loss of two sets of conference overhead, by the extra bowl tie ins, and by the elimination of a few of the weaker P5 schools.
But first things first let's have a refreshing of past thoughts on expansion out of the ACC.
I don't think the Big 10 would take 4 unless they could land Notre Dame. And while the Irish say never and mean it, the walls on their independence are slowly closing in on them. Realistically what do they do if the ACC disappears? I don't think they will be given a track to the playoffs without the ACC unless they join another conference in full. Face it folks if we move to a P4 or a P3 without the ACC Notre Dame is out of options in all likelihood. Should the Big 10 make some adjustments and take Syracuse, Boston College, and Virginia Tech then Notre Dame will be pressed into making 1 of 5 choices.
1. Hold their noses and swallow their pride and join the Big 10 where, face it, they would have a much better chance to make the playoffs than they would in the SEC. If they have Syracuse and B.C. they can add Maryland and Penn State if they wanted and have plenty of East Coast / Beltway exposure.
2. Thumb their noses at the Big 10 and totally screw up their program by joining the SEC out of spite.
3. Spend oodles of money ferrying their minor sports to their new PAC home.
4. Remain independent and concede that they will never be in the playoffs.
5. Form a new conference and hope for enough football umpf that they could beg a slot under the right conditions. The problem with this approach is that virtually all of the football first talent will have migrated to one of the remaining P conferences.
Therefore I posit that option 1 makes the most sense. While they hate the Big 10 they make the most revenue from this decision for TV, they save the most in travel, they maintain the East Coast / Beltway exposure that they want and a scheduling agreement with the SEC that places the Irish in the Southeast annually against a big name school is all they would need as long as they keep a California school as well.
Big 10 adds Syracuse and Boston College and gets Virginia Tech for markets and Notre Dame for content.
SEC adds Duke to get North Carolina, picks up Virginia who stays with Duke and North Carolina and finally adds Florida State for content and to keep pressure on the Big 12.
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Louisville, and Pitt are left for the Big 12. If the Big 12 wants to get to 18 and maximize markets for a converted LHN to a Big 12N then they add Cincinnati and B.Y.U..
Their moves help them to stabilize but keep them clearly in 3rd place behind the Big 10 and SEC.
Big 10 East:
Boston College, Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia Tech
Big 10 Central:
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Syracuse
Big 10 West:
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
SEC East:
Duke, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia
SEC Central:
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
SEC West:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Texas A&M
Big 12 East:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Big 12 North:
Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, Louisville, Oklahoma, T.C.U.
Big 12 South:
Baylor, Brigham Young, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
All three conferences play 10 conference games. 5 division games and 2 each against the other two divisions and 1 permanent rival.
Now if the Big 10 and SEC want to force the Big 12 out then they take 6 each from the ACC.
In that case the Big 10 picks up N.C. State for a market addition and Pitt because they are AAU and a friend of N.D..
The SEC picks up Clemson and Georgia Tech.
Those moves frustrate Big 12 attempts to expand markets and force 8 of the Big 12 schools to merge with the PAC and we wind up with something like this:
Big 10 Northeast:
Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse
Big 10 Southeast:
Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, N.C. State, Virginia Tech
Big 10 Central:
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State
Big 10 West:
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
SEC Northeast:
Duke, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia
SEC Northwest:
Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Vanderbilt
SEC Southeast:
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech,
SEC Southwest:
Alabama, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
PAC Northwest:
Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
PAC Southwest:
Arizona, Arizona State, California, U.C.L.A., U.S.C.
PAC Northeast:
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
PAC Southeast:
Colorado, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech, Utah
(This post was last modified: 10-31-2015 12:24 PM by JRsec.)
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