waltgreenberg
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I Root For: Rice Owls
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RE: How does it help Rice to schedule these games?
(09-28-2015 10:20 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: (09-28-2015 09:48 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote: (09-28-2015 09:38 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: (09-28-2015 09:15 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote: (09-28-2015 09:04 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: On any given Saturday...
We have talked a lot about how the transitive property doesn't work in athletics. LaTech was defined more by their season than one game, and Rice should be too. I guess you think Northwestern State would beat us by 48 or so. But it just doesn't work that way.
I think the other thing that doesn't make sense is the presumption that the ONLY thing that would explain everything is the coaching staff, that all things are equal save coaching. Football is not a controlled experiment where all variables but one are held constant. I expressed my belief that had we exchanged coaching staffs for the game yesterday, we would still have lost.
If I believed all we needed was NotBailiff at the helm, I would be leading the parade. But whether we hire Stoops, Briles, Patterson, or Rockne, I don't expect immediate improvement or even eventual Top10 or NCs. It's not like you can change just the spark plugs and suddenly have a Lamborghini.
Just out of curiosity, who is the miraclemaker you have in mind, or will we just get a generic miracle man?
I am willing to gamble on a lot of things, but I don't see much upside to an AnybodyButBailiff policy. I think when you go all in you need to have the odds on your side. Show me a better bet than DB, and I will move my chips to that side. It seems to me that all the possible replacements are either unknowns or very unlikely.
Nine years ago, I was very disappointed in the choice of Bailiff. I wanted Coker. A proven name. Today, would we exchange staffs with UTSA? I would not.
maybe a different coach would improve our record. Maybe not, Maybe a new guy would make all the fans happy and bring in giant crowds to ooh and aah when he calls plays. maybe not. I understand the guys who want to put all our chips on double zero, and I understand those who want to put that money into a CD. I really fall somewhere in the middle on this, but I understand also, if I'm not with ya, I'm agin ya.
In any case, we might as well be two butterflies arguing over whether we want rain today. If JK wants to keep him, I'll support JK in that decision. If JK wants to fire him, I'll support JK in that decision. The king is dead, long live the king.
And if we fire or lose JK...same thing.
JMHO
Buddy, we've had this debate/discussion numerous times in the past. I'll give you the short version of my position-- IMO, Bailiff has proven beyond a shadow of doubt that he cannot take us to the next level. He's brought us to a certain level of respectability such that we can now usually beat teams in the bottom quartile of the FBS division, but we consistently fail to even compete against teams even slightly better than us. Consequently, if as an Athletic Department and University we feel it is important that our football program takes things a step further-- at least being a Top 50 - 65 level program, which is imminently realistic, IMO-- then there is very little risk is replacing Bailiff. Good we conceivably perform worse than we have the past 3 years? Sure, (1) but I'm not sure how likely that would be, and (2) even if we did I don't think it would adversely change the national perception of Rice football (which has not changed much for the better under Bailiff). I see a far greater chance for upside, than downside with such a move...and don't see much negative even if the downside occurs. This may be our one last chance-- over the next 2 - 5 years-- to get back into a P5 conference. Given how important that is to us and ALL of sports programs (not to mention our national reputation and ranking as a university), I say roll the dice!
I understand your position clearly. Your are saying the building is burning, so might as well jump off the roof and hope for the best. I can understand that. I just don't see a "far better chance of upside" by changing coaches every three years or so. I agree this may be our last chance. I also think a return to 1-11 seasons will kill those chances. so will we be like southern Miss, and make the change and go into the dumpster? You see little chance of that, I see a lot. If our window is 2-5 years, we have to hit a home run. No time for singles, which is what Bailiff is doing anyway.
Heck, Butch and Sundance survived their big leap, maybe we will too. But before I join the jumpers, I want a name other than
Somebody Else. Once we fire Bailiff, we need to get the miracle worker. The one who will have us in the top 25 next year or the year after, and climbing. I use Kendall Briles as an example, as he is a top assistant on a top team. Do you think he can come in at Rice, recruit a bunch of 4 and 5 star freshmen, and tweak our offense to give us an extra 21 points/game? why or why not? Because he does it at Baylor?
I guess our viewpoints at just different. You see a change as no risk, I see it as trading the bird in the hand for two in the bush.
There is always risk performance and record-wise in a change, but I see very little risk in a change with regards to positioning ourselves in the best light for conference realignment (since we pretty much know that DB will not get us to where we want and need to be). Call it "urgency", call it "fire in the belly", call it in-game coachng...Bailiff does not have it. We don't need a miracle worker; rather, we need a coach who get more out of his players (through motivation, scouting, in-game adjustments, game planning for each opponent, etc.).
If you see a top25 ranking as a prerequisite for your goals, I guess there is no difference between a top60 ranking and 120+ ranking. I see the top60 as a step on the way to better rankings. And although I agree that if we are to have any shot at a P5, it had better be soon, I am not convinced there IS any shot. It may just be an El Dorado that we can never never reach.
If we take your gamble and fail, then(IMO) rice football is done. Finis. Kaput. In any way, shape, or form. Big stakes, and your assurances that there is no downside, nothing to lose, do not reassure me at all. Here we are arguing over whether rice will win 7, 8, 9, or 10 games this year and we want to risk losing it all on an unknown? I gamble, but I analyze the risk and the reward before I push my chips out there.
Or invest my money. I see a change as high risk, maybe high reward, maybe not. But as I said, if JK wants to do that, I will back him.
As for Rice and Lamar, the only people who care about that are Rice and Lamar alums. Nobody else is making that connection.
Geez, you're making it sound like Bailiff is some great coach. He is anything but. He's a very high character guy and strong recruiter...but he's a lousy football coach. Yes, below average. I have a little more faith in JK that he'll hire a capable and promising replacement should he decide to do so. Given our weak conference, I have a very hard time seeing us returning to 1-11, 2-10 type seasons at any point in the future.
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