JRsec
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RE: 9/25/15 Flugempire/BTM's sushi and ice cream meeting
(09-27-2015 03:48 PM)XLance Wrote: (09-26-2015 04:26 PM)XLance Wrote: (09-26-2015 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote: (09-26-2015 05:38 AM)XLance Wrote: According to an old Notre Dame report, before the B1G invited Nebraska, the top six candidates for the B1G were: Nebraska, Missouri, Kentucky, Va. Tech, Maryland and West Virginia.
If you look at all of those schools on a map it looks like a big smile. What it is , is a push out from the then B1G territory out an all fronts.
The SEC/ESPN/ACC dodged a bullet when Delany decided to start expansion on the extreme western edge of the smile instead of in the middle with Kentucky. The SEC/ESPN countered with Missouri and then strengthened Kentucky by adding Louisville to the ACC. Everybody SEC/ESPN/ACC gambled that the B1G would never touch West Virginia, but they did have success on the other end of the smile with a cash strapped infiltrated Maryland administration. That leaves Virginia Tech and the B1G is working them over hard (already scheduled home/home with Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan, Wisconsin, Rutgers and interestingly West Virginia). Virginia Tech is covering their rears if they were to make a move too. Long term contracts with Old Dominion keeps a presence in the Tidewater and a long term deal with East Carolina gives them long term exposure to North Carolina even without the ACC. This is why it is important to keep the State of Virginia sealed off. The fear is not from the SEC as some posters have suggested but from the B1G. ESPN has shown a willingness to do what's necessary to keep the B1G out of their perceived territory. At some point either the ACC or the SEC will have to take West Virginia and ESPN will have to pony up enough money to prop up the Big 12 or it's successors if they can successfully move Oklahoma and Texas out.
If ESPN/SEC/ACC can secure Va. Tech with a combination of the GOR and an ACCN then the B1G can only move to Kansas, Iowa State or UConn (which the ESPN left available as a face saving market share play for the B1G).
Expansion/realignment all started with a smile.
Outside of the fact that Fluguar is a "hit whore" who will post anything to get views the scenario is nothing that hasn't been discussed from the inception of realignment in 2010 and forward. Penn State got that ball rolling in way back when. Nebraska was actually the other "end of the smile" as a second pick, not Maryland.
The SEC would want Oklahoma? Wow! What a revelation!!! Gee, I never have heard that before!!!
ESPN wants to hold onto its property??? I've only been saying since my first post on this board that realignment was simply a corporate takeover of undervalued and disorganized sports property. I'm glad you are finally couching your responses in terms that reflect this reality.
Let's drop the Delany b.S. and the Slive (now Sankey) b.S. and call it what it is. It is a property war between FOX and ESPN which is complicated by the fact that for some time they have actually had to share some properties but as FOX grows that time for sharing is ending, and while it may or may not take a decade, that cooperation is ending abruptly and all of the future realignment will be about acquiring brands.
So spare me the garbage about who the SEC and Big 10 will and won't take. They will take whoever the corporate networks will pay them the most to acquire.
Now you can bet the farm on one thing. FOX will look to stall realignment until the Big 12 GOR expires and ESPN will push for a quicker resolution. Why? The biggest prize is Texas and if FOX gets things to stall until the end of the Big 12 GOR then Texas essentially becomes a free agent. Until that time ESPN has the leverage on the Horns. Oklahoma may as well be a free agent now because their T3 contract with FOX and Kansas's T3 contract with ESPN will both have very little buyout in 4 years.
So 10th if ESPN says to the SEC "we'll get you Oklahoma and pay you enough to take OSU" then that's what happens. I don't think they'll say that but they might if it looks like OU will head North. And XLance if ESPN says to the ACC "you'll take Texas and Texas Tech" then that's what will happen. I just think it will be more likely Texas, T.C.U. and another.
ESPN will push for the SEC and ACC to move to 18. Why? It's the best way they can bust up the Big 12 and end this without major FOX interference. FOX will push to keep a P5. Why? It gives the best chance to land the top 3 prizes from the Big 12 and to add some schools already in the Southeast who could not otherwise find a home in the SEC and ACC and because it puts them into a region that they want.
These are the realities.
I do have a question for XLance however. Do you think that if Virginia Tech ever got serious about leaving the ACC for the Big 10 that ESPN would offer them a SEC slot with improved revenue to keep FOX out of the Tidewater region? If so then I could see OU, VaTech, and two other Big 12 schools to the SEC. And I could see Texas, T.C.U., and two other Big 12 schools to the ACC. If Wake became an ACC member like N.D. (everything but football where they would retain 5 or 6 ACC games) then a 5th Big 12 school could enter the ACC and it would be enough to accomplish dissolution. Even if Va Tech stayed in the ACC the SEC could simply take 4, Wake could seek the new status, and the ACC could add 4 and we're done.
It doesn't really matter if we take a couple of little brothers if that is the cost to ESPN for landing the product they want, and to lock FOX out of the region with the largest markets and highest saturation.
I think that ESPN will do anything necessary to keep the B1G out of Virginia and North Carolina.
I also believe that the ACC had already explained to ESPN that they don't want the SEC in Virginia or North Carolina either.
We just need to get this done. You could form a 6 team Western Division with Louisville, Miami, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. The SEC could take Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and West Virginia.
We'll leave Iowa State and Kansas for the Big 10.
ACC North: Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
ACC South: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia
ACC West: Florida State, Miami, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech
***Wake Forest is independent in football playing 6 ACC games and a full member in everything else.
SEC East: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia
SEC South: Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
SEC West: Arkansas, Baylor, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
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