JRsec
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RE: Time, Monetary Disparity, Pressure, and No Brokering Equals Unexpected Consequences
(08-18-2015 02:34 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote: (08-17-2015 07:20 AM)JRsec Wrote: Allow the coming economic disparity between the SEC / Big 10 and the Big 12 and ACC continue for just 5 or 6 years and the whole prospect for realignment will dramatically change and for the better for the SEC and Big 10 and the unintended consequences of not brokering out moves, and for sticking with current GOR's will have dramatic consequences for the best of the G5 schools, some of the private schools in P5 conferences now, and for some of the last FBS schools that got into the P5 and some that were already in it. Why?
5 or 6 years will make the breaking of most of the GOR's economically viable. Which means that networks won't have to pay for duplicate schools that need to attach themselves to larger more brand recognizable schools, and they won't have to pay for small alumni based privates either, and they won't have to worry about G5 Schools being added to the P ranks. In fact the whole P4 structure will quit talking about 64 schools and will be talking instead about 54.
The failure to broker out moves from the Big 12 now means that the ACC is actually going to be much more vulnerable in 5 or 6 years, as well. It means that Baylor, T.C.U., West Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Wake Forest and Miami are all also vulnerable to varying degrees of getting left behind in a move to 54 schools, instead of 64.
Think in terms of Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Kansas State to the PAC; Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Florida State and Clemson to the SEC; North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Notre Dame to the Big 10.
No B.Y.U., no Cincinnati, no Duke, no Wake Forest, etc. etc. etc.
How? Won't there be lawsuits? Will it be the end of college football as we know it?
As to the last 2 questions, no and no. The separation will be over expenditures. With Big 10 and SEC schools paying out full cost scholarships (and the Big 10 will) and with privates having a tough time doing so (except Stanford, Notre Dame, and the other larger privates), and with the growing gap in money earned to spend on such, there will be a natural drop off of those wanting the upper tier. Time therefore becomes the ally of separation, less overhead, and better content. A P3 could well emerge with 18 schools each. It will be more profitable for those who stay the course, will provide some room for those who want to be there, and the necessary monetary facts for those who don't wish to be a part of it to exit with some political cover.
So the time has passed for this year's movement to happen. We wait. And each year we do wait the better it will be for the networks, those who want the upper tier, and the more difficult it will grow for others to remain.
Notre Dame, Maryland, Penn State, Virginia, UNC, Georgia Tech
Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue
Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois
Virginia Tech, NC State, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Florida State, Auburn, Bama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Texas A&M, LSU, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State
Utah, Colorado, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, USC
Stanford, Berkeley, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
My best guess so far. Playoffs would have to expand to at least six to accommodate the additional programs.
I'm not so sure about expanded playoffs. I believe the networks would be quite happy with conference semi finals and 1 at large bid. That gives them some marketing flexibility which they seem to crave.
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