(07-26-2015 03:28 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Folks may not be bustin' the dial to watch Duke football, but rest assured they're watching Duke basketball and that's still content for a network to sell.

As for an ACC Network: Swofford typically plays things very close to the chest. Few people knew of the Syracuse/Pitt or the Notre Dame deal until they were signed, sealed, and delivered. As such, you're not likely to hear much about it until it's DONE. That being said, what very little HAS been leaked, has indicated that it's going to happen. Why people choose to blatantly ignore this continues to elude me.

What's most likely to happen is the BigXII imploding with at least the bulk of it's membership finding new P4 homes amongst the remaining conferences.

That is the problem with the ACC right now. The money is in football, and not basketball. Duke, Wake Forest and Miami will be holding the ACC down for a contract for a Network. ACC is not stable really. I could see Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson leaving if they do not get the right tv Network, or that they get less than the SEC and Big 10. Virginia, Virginia Tech, NC State and Louisville could follow them out the door.

I don't have any insight into this kind of stuff at all, but I don't really get the concept of there not being enough money to go around for as many power conferences as the executives want. Isn't this the most popular college football has ever been? I get that there is a bubble looming and all that, but there's plenty of money to go around.

The disparity between the conferences isn't a good look when you're on one of the short ends of the stick, but, for the big time programs, it always seemed like it'd be a matter of diminishing returns to me. Concerning the universities down on their luck and riding the gravy train, that's just the nature of the beast.

To me, the only positive to draw from a power conference or two being cannibalized would be a better slate of games, and that's not even a given. Narrowing down the conferences eliminates a lot of what makes college football so good, but that's a tangent for another thread I suppose.

(07-27-2015 01:07 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-26-2015 03:28 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Folks may not be bustin' the dial to watch Duke football, but rest assured they're watching Duke basketball and that's still content for a network to sell.

As for an ACC Network: Swofford typically plays things very close to the chest. Few people knew of the Syracuse/Pitt or the Notre Dame deal until they were signed, sealed, and delivered. As such, you're not likely to hear much about it until it's DONE. That being said, what very little HAS been leaked, has indicated that it's going to happen. Why people choose to blatantly ignore this continues to elude me.

What's most likely to happen is the BigXII imploding with at least the bulk of it's membership finding new P4 homes amongst the remaining conferences.

That is the problem with the ACC right now. The money is in football, and not basketball. Duke, Wake Forest and Miami will be holding the ACC down for a contract for a Network. ACC is not stable really. I could see Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson leaving if they do not get the right tv Network, or that they get less than the SEC and Big 10. Virginia, Virginia Tech, NC State and Louisville could follow them out the door.

TO BE FAIR: You've also said ESPN is trying to get North Dakota State into a Power Conference...so you'll forgive me if I utterly ignore anything you have to say about realignment after that.

(07-26-2015 04:41 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  .

For example, why isn't there enough money for the P5? I've seen no evidence of that whatsoever.

Also, why would Florida let Florida State in the SEC? Why would South Carolina let Clemson in that league? Why would the Virginia legislature allow Virginia Tech to leave Virginia high and dry after fighting so hard to protect the Hokies during the ACCs 2003 expansion?

Yet another great schism may indeed happen but this is unformed dreck.

The first statement was truly dumb. right now there are 64 teams in P5 dividing money. there would be 64 teams in P4 with 16 each. exact same money needed. If P5 Added 6 schools and every conf went to 14 schools, you only need another 250 to 350 mil to cover it. The isn't a whole lot of $$ in the scheme of things.

(07-27-2015 03:52 AM)Hopeful Wrote:  I don't have any insight into this kind of stuff at all, but I don't really get the concept of there not being enough money to go around for as many power conferences as the executives want. Isn't this the most popular college football has ever been? I get that there is a bubble looming and all that, but there's plenty of money to go around.

The disparity between the conferences isn't a good look when you're on one of the short ends of the stick, but, for the big time programs, it always seemed like it'd be a matter of diminishing returns to me. Concerning the universities down on their luck and riding the gravy train, that's just the nature of the beast.

To me, the only positive to draw from a power conference or two being cannibalized would be a better slate of games, and that's not even a given. Narrowing down the conferences eliminates a lot of what makes college football so good, but that's a tangent for another thread I suppose.

You can argue that cable/satellite providers need to look at costs in a new way with people cutting the cord and the risk of a new unbundled pricing model that may reduce revenues. You can argue that too much money has been spent on sports TV rights in general.

What I can't see the argument for is the idea that too much money has been spent on TV rights for college sports (even with the recent increases). Those contracts provide thousands of hours of live content for the cable/sat providers, and I am pretty sure that if you added all of the P5 and G5 contracts together it is around the same amount of money that ESPN is paying the NFL to show 17 Monday Night Football games, and a playoff game or two, each year.

Uninformed? Clueless? Dreck?

There are five "top" P5 conferences. In the recent past, four Big 12 schools have left for the SEC, PAC 12 and Big Ten... none have left for the ACC. One ACC left for the Big Ten ... none have left for the Big 12.

No SEC, Big Ten, or PAC 12 school has left for the ACC or Big 12.

The SEC, PAC 12, and Big Ten have emerged as the Big Three. The bulk of the money will reside there. The ACC is primarily a basketball league, and the Big 12 has markets issues.

Oklahoma knows this. It will now decide where to go, and will discuss this with old friends Nebraska, Mizzou, A&M, and Colorado, and then decide where to go. Kansas will likely follow. My money is on the Big Ten.

The SEC will react.

The good folks at NC State and VPI know this as well. Would they rather play in the SEC, or with BC, Pitt, Syracuse, and L'ville?

The good folks at UVa know that this is a possible scenario. Do they pre-empt the Oklahoma-Kansas move to the Big Ten, and get there first...opening the way for the Wolfpack and Hokies?

The Big 12 should see this as well, and do they pre-empt and grab FSU and Clemson? Is this enough to keep Oklahoma in the fold?

The SEC sees this as well, and do they pre-empt with a whole host of options?

The Big 12 and ACC will survive in the P5, and they will make money, but not the money that the Big Three will make, and that has been my sole point.

(07-26-2015 03:03 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-26-2015 09:28 AM)Hoosier Hysteria 1 Wrote:  The real question is where are the networks going to invest their money. They want good content, large fan bases, and stability in the conferences they are going to invest in.
As far as the Big 12 goes the damage has already been done. The LHN has pretty much taken a great conference and caused members to leave and forced others to plan their escape when GOR expire. Kansas and Oklahoma will have everything in place to make conference switch smooth and quick. So this makes it very difficult for the Big 12 Conference to get a lucrative network contract. This make BIg 12 very unstable.
The ACC seems to be in good shape at this time. The only thing that could make ACC susceptible is the increasing money gap between the SEC and BIG due to network contracts.

The problem with the P5 is that there are some schools that the networks do not want anymore. Duke, Wake Forest, Baylor and some others are not cracking up to be. Duke's winning have not brought out the fans. They are the Northern Illinois of the ACC. They want schools that have fans to fill stadiums right now which includes tv viewerships.

How exactly is Baylor on your list of schools the networks don't want? They have one of the hottest teams in football currently and consistently have a men's basketball team in the NCAA tournament. Their women's basketball program gets the UConn treatment by ESPN, being one of 2-3 featured during Big Monday games and during the 24 Hour basketball marathon. Also, Baylor is the third largest private school in the P5 behind USC and Syracuse. You say they want schools that fill stadiums and Baylor has been doing that and they have been bringing in the viewers on TV.

(07-26-2015 08:41 AM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Where do people get this crap that the ACC's going to implode? It isn't. Meanwhile, the BigXII is very publicly infighting right now and on the brink of collapse. There are plenty of quality schools in the BigXII to divy up and suit everyone's expansion needs.

In my opinion, it's derived from the day dream fantasies of people who actually want to see schools like Oklahoma in the B1G.


So I guess while we're on the subject of fantasies, here's a different fantasy:

B1G takes: Pitt, Virginia, UNC, Duke, GA Tech, IA St

SEC takes: NC St, VT, OU, OK St, FSU, Clem

PAC takes: KS, KSU, TX Tech, Baylor, TCU, Houston, BYU, and someone else

ACC takes: WV and however many of the top AAC makes sense, and includes Notre Dame and Texas non-football

Notre Dame and Texas go complete independent in football.

(07-26-2015 02:05 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-26-2015 09:50 AM)nj alum Wrote:  

(07-26-2015 09:38 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  there is plenty of money in this....that isn't an issue

Let me clarify...

Purdue got $32 million last year from the Big Ten. Nebraska will soon be getting the same amount. Oklahoma sees that and knows that it's not going to see that kind of money in the Big 12.

Additionally, Purdue and Nebraska are getting CIC money as part of the Big Ten which dwarfs the TV money. Oklahoma is not seeing that at all.

Oklahoma has a better brand name than Purdue, and Nebraska is a long time rival, and both schools are smoking Oklahoma in the bank accounts.

Oklahoma can not afford to let this continue.

Money, as it always is, is the issue.

Purdue gets a nice amount of CIC money. Show me where Nebraska gets as much, or even close to as much, and then show me how much more Nebraska gets now as opposed to when they were in the Big 12.

Sports revenue isn't about the Big 10. The top schools make the most no matter what the TV networks pay. The SEC has 6 of the top 13 and overall a tad more than the Big 10. The Big 10 wanting and needing to move South wreaks of desperation as they watch the demographic shift continue. No thanks. Your Northern neighbors in South Bend know this and they made the most economic decision to deal with it. Kudos to the Irish.

Yep, population growth is all that matters.

Stashing people in cardboard boxes in the woods is fine too, so long as you keep your population growing at an unsustainable rate. Just gotta make things look good on that census report!


Because that's what advertisers really care about in targeting markets. Growth. That's it. Nothing else.

(07-27-2015 09:42 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(07-26-2015 02:05 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-26-2015 09:50 AM)nj alum Wrote:  

(07-26-2015 09:38 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  there is plenty of money in this....that isn't an issue

Let me clarify...

Purdue got $32 million last year from the Big Ten. Nebraska will soon be getting the same amount. Oklahoma sees that and knows that it's not going to see that kind of money in the Big 12.

Additionally, Purdue and Nebraska are getting CIC money as part of the Big Ten which dwarfs the TV money. Oklahoma is not seeing that at all.

Oklahoma has a better brand name than Purdue, and Nebraska is a long time rival, and both schools are smoking Oklahoma in the bank accounts.

Oklahoma can not afford to let this continue.

Money, as it always is, is the issue.

Purdue gets a nice amount of CIC money. Show me where Nebraska gets as much, or even close to as much, and then show me how much more Nebraska gets now as opposed to when they were in the Big 12.

Sports revenue isn't about the Big 10. The top schools make the most no matter what the TV networks pay. The SEC has 6 of the top 13 and overall a tad more than the Big 10. The Big 10 wanting and needing to move South wreaks of desperation as they watch the demographic shift continue. No thanks. Your Northern neighbors in South Bend know this and they made the most economic decision to deal with it. Kudos to the Irish.

Yep, population growth is all that matters.

Stashing people in cardboard boxes in the woods is fine too, so long as you keep your population growing at an unsustainable rate. Just gotta make things look good on that census report!


Because that's what advertisers really care about in targeting markets. Growth. That's it. Nothing else.

I think you have us confused with New Mexico, Arizona, extreme Southern California and parts of Texas where they stash those extra people in tunnels instead of cardboard boxes in the woods, but your sarcasm is appreciated.

(07-27-2015 08:39 AM)nj alum Wrote:  Uninformed? Clueless? Dreck?

Yes to all of the above. In fact, unequivocally yes to all of the above.

(07-27-2015 08:39 AM)nj alum Wrote:  There are five "top" P5 conferences. In the recent past, four Big 12 schools have left for the SEC, PAC 12 and Big Ten... none have left for the ACC. One ACC left for the Big Ten ... none have left for the Big 12.

No SEC, Big Ten, or PAC 12 school has left for the ACC or Big 12.

Correct.

(07-27-2015 08:39 AM)nj alum Wrote:  The SEC, PAC 12, and Big Ten have emerged as the Big Three. The bulk of the money will reside there. The ACC is primarily a basketball league, and the Big 12 has markets issues.

Sort of. The reason why the P12 is safe from its schools defecting has as much to do with geography as anything else.

The SEC and the B1G are the "Big 2" as it were. However, that is not a new development. If we would have had this conversation in 1982, my feeling would be the same. Very little has changed in the power structure of college athletics.

(07-27-2015 08:39 AM)nj alum Wrote:  Oklahoma knows this. It will now decide where to go, and will discuss this with old friends Nebraska, Mizzou, A&M, and Colorado, and then decide where to go. Kansas will likely follow. My money is on the Big Ten.

Again though, this is not new. In fact, it's sort of like claiming that "sooner or later, people are going to realize that the Yankees play in a larger market than everyone else." Yeah, we get it and have for decades now.

Oklahoma knew full well how powerful and lucrative the B1G was when it helped for the B12 and again when it helped to save it.

My money is on OU getting what it wants and the B12 expanding by two or four teams.

(07-27-2015 08:39 AM)nj alum Wrote:  The SEC will react.

React to what? Oklahoma's hypothetical departure? I guess.

(07-27-2015 08:39 AM)nj alum Wrote:  The good folks at NC State and VPI know this as well. Would they rather play in the SEC, or with BC, Pitt, Syracuse, and L'ville?

But what about the governing bodies in North Carolina and Virginia? Do you think they are going to allow UNC and UVA to potentially be hung out to dry? We know the answer to this question because the entire reason why VT is in the ACC is because the Virginia legislature was worried about it being hung out to dry in the dying Big East.

Sorry dude, but that's a dumb theory.

(07-27-2015 08:39 AM)nj alum Wrote:  The good folks at UVa know that this is a possible scenario. Do they pre-empt the Oklahoma-Kansas move to the Big Ten, and get there first...opening the way for the Wolfpack and Hokies?

Uh, maybe. That is if they don't join the NFC East first.

(07-27-2015 08:39 AM)nj alum Wrote:  The Big 12 should see this as well, and do they pre-empt and grab FSU and Clemson? Is this enough to keep Oklahoma in the fold?

I don't know? This is terrifying! (bites nails)

(07-27-2015 08:39 AM)nj alum Wrote:  The SEC sees this as well, and do they pre-empt with a whole host of options?

Who? It won't be Louisville, Clemson or Florida State because the SEC has rules in place to protect existing SEC teams from having to share their markets.

(07-27-2015 08:39 AM)nj alum Wrote:  The Big 12 and ACC will survive in the P5, and they will make money, but not the money that the Big Three will make, and that has been my sole point.

Neither the B12 or the ACC is going to make as much money as the B1G or the SEC regardless of what happens. The ACC has a bunch of small publics and large privates among its membership. The "Big 2" are basically state land grant diploma mills. There is no competition to be had there (at least off the field); never has been, never will be.

Does anyone honestly think FSU and Clemson or ANYONE from ANY other P5 conference is going to go to the BigXII now, with all of it's dysfunction on full display? Seriously?

Let me spell this out for you since it seems that people can't grasp this concept: NO CONFERENCE CAN JUST "GRAB" A SCHOOL THAT DOES NOT WISH TO LEAVE WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS. PERIOD. END OF THE DISCUSSION.

This is why Oklahoma and Kansas are being talked about as possibly going to the B1G and not any ACC schools. THEY are the ones that have signaled a DESIRE TO LEAVE WHERE THEY ARE.

(07-27-2015 03:44 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Does anyone honestly think FSU and Clemson or ANYONE from ANY other P5 conference is going to go to the BigXII now, with all of it's dysfunction on full display? Seriously?

Let me spell this out for you since it seems that people can't grasp this concept: NO CONFERENCE CAN JUST "GRAB" A SCHOOL THAT DOES NOT WISH TO LEAVE WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS. PERIOD. END OF THE DISCUSSION.

This is why Oklahoma and Kansas are being talked about as possibly going to the B1G and not any ACC schools. THEY are the ones that have signaled a DESIRE TO LEAVE WHERE THEY ARE.

You don't need to spell anything out. Keep parsing. If you couldn't discern that I believe that the Big 12 is in trouble, don't know how to help you.

Schools can be made offers that they can't refuse ... especially if it's a golden ticket to the SEC or BIG.

If Louisville, very happy in the ACC, were offered a spot in the SEC, they'd say "no"? I don't think so.

* Collective Bargaining
* Small Conferences, Many Independents
* Large and Small Conferences, Many Independents
* Division Split (I-A/I-AA)
* I-A Moderate Conferences, Some Independents
* I-A Championship Conferences, Few Independents <---- YOU ARE HERE
(Expansion of playoff and hugely increased revenue from playoff puts pressure on generating guaranteed births like March Madness power conferences)
(Breakdown of traditional cable distribution models, increased emphasis on gate revenue, rise of direct-to-consumer TV networks)
* I-A TV Network Mega Conferences, No Independents (#TeamMegaconference)
---> TV properties sold direct to consumer and broadcast over fading cable model
---> Auto-bids into CFP for champions, dominate the number of total bids in the CFP and March Madness and thus the revenue generated from it
---> Largely self-governing ... NCAA only becomes relevant for non-revenue sports and may even lose control of March Madness itself
---> Re-emphasis on regional and historic rivalry games revitalizes sales at the gate, which is where power programs like Alabama really differentiate their income from other programs like say Kansas.
---> Pre-season game against FCS cupcake sold as 7th home game and supports in state smaller programs
---> Eliminates the giant and expensive PITA known as present out of conference scheduling
------> Nobody wants to see Baylor play Buffalo or Duke play FIU anyway.

(07-27-2015 05:20 AM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  

(07-27-2015 01:07 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-26-2015 03:28 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Folks may not be bustin' the dial to watch Duke football, but rest assured they're watching Duke basketball and that's still content for a network to sell.

As for an ACC Network: Swofford typically plays things very close to the chest. Few people knew of the Syracuse/Pitt or the Notre Dame deal until they were signed, sealed, and delivered. As such, you're not likely to hear much about it until it's DONE. That being said, what very little HAS been leaked, has indicated that it's going to happen. Why people choose to blatantly ignore this continues to elude me.

What's most likely to happen is the BigXII imploding with at least the bulk of it's membership finding new P4 homes amongst the remaining conferences.

That is the problem with the ACC right now. The money is in football, and not basketball. Duke, Wake Forest and Miami will be holding the ACC down for a contract for a Network. ACC is not stable really. I could see Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson leaving if they do not get the right tv Network, or that they get less than the SEC and Big 10. Virginia, Virginia Tech, NC State and Louisville could follow them out the door.

TO BE FAIR: You've also said ESPN is trying to get North Dakota State into a Power Conference...so you'll forgive me if I utterly ignore anything you have to say about realignment after that.

(07-27-2015 03:44 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Does anyone honestly think FSU and Clemson or ANYONE from ANY other P5 conference is going to go to the BigXII now, with all of it's dysfunction on full display? Seriously?

Let me spell this out for you since it seems that people can't grasp this concept: NO CONFERENCE CAN JUST "GRAB" A SCHOOL THAT DOES NOT WISH TO LEAVE WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS. PERIOD. END OF THE DISCUSSION.

This is why Oklahoma and Kansas are being talked about as possibly going to the B1G and not any ACC schools. THEY are the ones that have signaled a DESIRE TO LEAVE WHERE THEY ARE.

They won't go to the Big 12, but they could jump and go to the Big 10. That is where I am thinking they will likely go.

If they are moving towards 4 Super-Conferences and those will each have 20 teams, then 4 x 20 = 80. There are currently 66 P5 Schools not including Army. That means there would be 14 Schools on deck. Just saying.

(07-27-2015 07:28 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  If they are moving towards 4 Super-Conferences and those will each have 20 teams, then 4 x 20 = 80. There are currently 66 P5 Schools not including Army. That means there would be 14 Schools on deck. Just saying.

I shared just such a model several months ago now that spelled out my vision for this, but in short...yes. There'd be some current G5 schools "promoted" to the P4 ranks if things panned out as I envision, but it'll be YEARS away.

(07-27-2015 07:36 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  

(07-27-2015 07:28 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  If they are moving towards 4 Super-Conferences and those will each have 20 teams, then 4 x 20 = 80. There are currently 66 P5 Schools not including Army. That means there would be 14 Schools on deck. Just saying.

I shared just such a model several months ago now that spelled out my vision for this, but in short...yes. There'd be some current G5 schools "promoted" to the P4 ranks if things panned out as I envision, but it'll be YEARS away.

That and a ton of lateral movement for balance. Financial Balance that is.

I'm not convinced that the lateral movement would be necessary.