We're less than 24 hours away from seeing if UKIP breaks into Westminster ... and what hideous minority coalition it will require to govern the UK.

Ok, as long as prime minister questions stays entertaining.

Prediction..UKIP will get maybe 3 or 4 percent of the seats. Somewhere around 9-12 seats.

The SNP will probably make the next government. Lets just say Scotland is very supportive of the EU. That would bode very poorly for UKIP having any influence in the next Parliament. The SNP + Plaid C. might get around 55 seats.

Scotland will probably rule England for the forseeable future as a result of its outsized importance in UK elections. 4% of the votes will probably equal 10% of the seats.

BBC projects Tories with 316 seats. This would be an interesting development as it would perhaps make a government possible without the SNP. UKIP gets 2 seats out of 650.

If these results hold..

Milliband would have real trouble forming a government. He might have a shot if Sein Fein would take the seats they win (Which isn't happening). Labor + SDLP + SNP + Plaid C + 1 Independent + the Alliance + the Greens ~ 315

But it looks like Cameron might have trouble too. But I think they'd end up with floor walkers from their own caucus if they touched the UKIP.

But with the SNP + Plaid + SDLP with a whopping 70 seats (all huge supporters of the EU), UKIP and the Euroskeptic agenda a non-starter. Euroskeptism lost big time.

---

Oddly enough, UKIP turned out to be a paper tiger and a very minor player in all of this. Basically, the Lib Dems lost seats to the SNP (which is actually more to the left than the Lib Dems). And Labor lost seats to the Tories and the SNP.

---

Looks like another shaky coalition government. It might even be a minority government (as the difference will likely be the 5 Sein Fein MP's that won't take their seats).

(05-07-2015 04:23 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  BBC projects Tories with 316 seats. This would be an interesting development as it would perhaps make a government possible without the SNP. UKIP gets 2 seats out of 650.

If these results hold..

Milliband would have real trouble forming a government. He might have a shot if Sein Fein would take the seats they win (Which isn't happening).

But it looks like Cameron might have trouble too.

But with the SNP + Plaid + SDLP with a whopping 70 seats (all huge supporters of the EU), UKIP and the Euroskeptic agenda a non-starter. Euroskeptism lost big time.

---

Oddly enough, UKIP turned out to be a paper tiger and a very minor player in all of this. Basically, the Lib Dems lost seats to the SNP (which is actually more to the left than the Lib Dems). And Labor lost seats to the Tories and the SNP.

I voted Conservative last time but didn't this time because I don't like their education policies and lack of Lords reform (I actually didn't vote for anyone), but the best thing for the UK is to have a workable majority or minority government. The potential clusterfucks of 3+ parties could be ridiculous and an unworkable minority would make a constitutional crisis. If the Tories can make it as the polls predict then it's a very good thing.

(05-07-2015 04:38 PM)ODUgradstudent Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:23 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  BBC projects Tories with 316 seats. This would be an interesting development as it would perhaps make a government possible without the SNP. UKIP gets 2 seats out of 650.

If these results hold..

Milliband would have real trouble forming a government. He might have a shot if Sein Fein would take the seats they win (Which isn't happening).

But it looks like Cameron might have trouble too.

But with the SNP + Plaid + SDLP with a whopping 70 seats (all huge supporters of the EU), UKIP and the Euroskeptic agenda a non-starter. Euroskeptism lost big time.

---

Oddly enough, UKIP turned out to be a paper tiger and a very minor player in all of this. Basically, the Lib Dems lost seats to the SNP (which is actually more to the left than the Lib Dems). And Labor lost seats to the Tories and the SNP.

I voted Conservative last time but didn't this time because I don't like their education policies and lack of Lords reform (I actually didn't vote for anyone), but the best thing for the UK is to have a workable majority or minority government. The potential clusterfucks of 3+ parties could be ridiculous and an unworkable minority would make a constitutional crisis. If the Tories can make it as the polls predict then it's a very good thing.

Here's how this works.

The far left are the Greens, the Respect Party, the SDLP, the SNP, and Plaid C. All of them are strong supporters of the EU, support devolution of powers, and more liberal economic policies. They'll have ~ 67 votes.

The center-left are the Lib Dems's and Labour and Alliance. They support the EU and somewhat more liberal economic policies. They'll have ~ 250 votes.

The DUP (8 votes) wont enter a government with the SNP. Unless that happens, No majority government for Milliband. Its possible I suppose.

---

Its looking like another Tory Lib Dem government though.

(05-07-2015 04:38 PM)ODUgradstudent Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:23 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  BBC projects Tories with 316 seats. This would be an interesting development as it would perhaps make a government possible without the SNP. UKIP gets 2 seats out of 650.

If these results hold..

Milliband would have real trouble forming a government. He might have a shot if Sein Fein would take the seats they win (Which isn't happening).

But it looks like Cameron might have trouble too.

But with the SNP + Plaid + SDLP with a whopping 70 seats (all huge supporters of the EU), UKIP and the Euroskeptic agenda a non-starter. Euroskeptism lost big time.

---

Oddly enough, UKIP turned out to be a paper tiger and a very minor player in all of this. Basically, the Lib Dems lost seats to the SNP (which is actually more to the left than the Lib Dems). And Labor lost seats to the Tories and the SNP.

I voted Conservative last time but didn't this time because I don't like their education policies and lack of Lords reform (I actually didn't vote for anyone), but the best thing for the UK is to have a workable majority or minority government. The potential clusterfucks of 3+ parties could be ridiculous and an unworkable minority would make a constitutional crisis. If the Tories can make it as the polls predict then it's a very good thing.

Another solid W for the Conservative party, and another sizable loss for Labour. This is a good thing, of course.

After Hours | EarningsWatch
Pound soars after U.K. poll puts Tories in the lead

The pound GBPUSD, +1.2459% jumped to as high as $1.5429 Thursday evening after an exit poll from the U.K. general election put the Conservatives in the lead by a surprisingly large margin.


http://www.marketwatch.com/

(05-07-2015 04:51 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:38 PM)ODUgradstudent Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:23 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  BBC projects Tories with 316 seats. This would be an interesting development as it would perhaps make a government possible without the SNP. UKIP gets 2 seats out of 650.

If these results hold..

Milliband would have real trouble forming a government. He might have a shot if Sein Fein would take the seats they win (Which isn't happening).

But it looks like Cameron might have trouble too.

But with the SNP + Plaid + SDLP with a whopping 70 seats (all huge supporters of the EU), UKIP and the Euroskeptic agenda a non-starter. Euroskeptism lost big time.

---

Oddly enough, UKIP turned out to be a paper tiger and a very minor player in all of this. Basically, the Lib Dems lost seats to the SNP (which is actually more to the left than the Lib Dems). And Labor lost seats to the Tories and the SNP.

I voted Conservative last time but didn't this time because I don't like their education policies and lack of Lords reform (I actually didn't vote for anyone), but the best thing for the UK is to have a workable majority or minority government. The potential clusterfucks of 3+ parties could be ridiculous and an unworkable minority would make a constitutional crisis. If the Tories can make it as the polls predict then it's a very good thing.

Another solid W for the Conservative party, and another sizable loss for Labour. This is a good thing, of course.

After Hours | EarningsWatch
Pound soars after U.K. poll puts Tories in the lead

The pound GBPUSD, +1.2459% jumped to as high as $1.5429 Thursday evening after an exit poll from the U.K. general election put the Conservatives in the lead by a surprisingly large margin.


http://www.marketwatch.com/

It will be a very shaky government if these election results hold up. Somewhat more stable than the government in Israel, but shaky nonetheless.

What man observers don't realize is that the real driver of left leaning policy advocacy isn't Labour, but the SNP. I wouldn't take this as a huge loss for Labour, but rather a British electorate moving leftwards, albeit by probably not enough to switch the government. If you take a look at Centrist and Centre-Right parties...They're going to end up losing seats, not gaining them.

Old Coalition - Tories + Lib Dems 358 seats for a majority of 23. New Coalition Tories + Lib Dems 326 Seats for a majority of ONE. I don't think that they can ask UKIP to join them (They'd probably face floor walkers from their own party). The DUP might help shore up their government (8 seats) but they might cause floorwalking too.

By the way, the big Euroskeptic party in the UK isn't the UKIP, but the DUP.

(05-07-2015 04:54 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:51 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:38 PM)ODUgradstudent Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:23 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  BBC projects Tories with 316 seats. This would be an interesting development as it would perhaps make a government possible without the SNP. UKIP gets 2 seats out of 650.

If these results hold..

Milliband would have real trouble forming a government. He might have a shot if Sein Fein would take the seats they win (Which isn't happening).

But it looks like Cameron might have trouble too.

But with the SNP + Plaid + SDLP with a whopping 70 seats (all huge supporters of the EU), UKIP and the Euroskeptic agenda a non-starter. Euroskeptism lost big time.

---

Oddly enough, UKIP turned out to be a paper tiger and a very minor player in all of this. Basically, the Lib Dems lost seats to the SNP (which is actually more to the left than the Lib Dems). And Labor lost seats to the Tories and the SNP.

I voted Conservative last time but didn't this time because I don't like their education policies and lack of Lords reform (I actually didn't vote for anyone), but the best thing for the UK is to have a workable majority or minority government. The potential clusterfucks of 3+ parties could be ridiculous and an unworkable minority would make a constitutional crisis. If the Tories can make it as the polls predict then it's a very good thing.

Another solid W for the Conservative party, and another sizable loss for Labour. This is a good thing, of course.

After Hours | EarningsWatch
Pound soars after U.K. poll puts Tories in the lead

The pound GBPUSD, +1.2459% jumped to as high as $1.5429 Thursday evening after an exit poll from the U.K. general election put the Conservatives in the lead by a surprisingly large margin.


http://www.marketwatch.com/

It will be a very shaky government if these election results hold up. Somewhat more stable than the government in Israel, but shaky nonetheless.

What man observers don't realize is that the real driver of left leaning policy advocacy isn't Labour, but the SNP. I wouldn't take this as a huge loss for Labour, but rather a British electorate moving leftwards, albeit by probably not enough to switch the government. If you take a look at Centrist and Centre-Right parties...They're going to end up losing seats, not gaining them.

Old Coalition - Tories + Lib Dems 358 seats for a majority of 23. New Coalition Tories + Lib Dems 326 Seats for a majority of ONE.

Could be I guess, I'm not as closely tuned on to all this as you apparently are.

Tories gained 10 seats, Labour lost twice that many. I guess you can somehow spin that as an "electorate moving leftwards"...

(05-07-2015 05:06 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:54 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:51 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:38 PM)ODUgradstudent Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:23 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  BBC projects Tories with 316 seats. This would be an interesting development as it would perhaps make a government possible without the SNP. UKIP gets 2 seats out of 650.

If these results hold..

Milliband would have real trouble forming a government. He might have a shot if Sein Fein would take the seats they win (Which isn't happening).

But it looks like Cameron might have trouble too.

But with the SNP + Plaid + SDLP with a whopping 70 seats (all huge supporters of the EU), UKIP and the Euroskeptic agenda a non-starter. Euroskeptism lost big time.

---

Oddly enough, UKIP turned out to be a paper tiger and a very minor player in all of this. Basically, the Lib Dems lost seats to the SNP (which is actually more to the left than the Lib Dems). And Labor lost seats to the Tories and the SNP.

I voted Conservative last time but didn't this time because I don't like their education policies and lack of Lords reform (I actually didn't vote for anyone), but the best thing for the UK is to have a workable majority or minority government. The potential clusterfucks of 3+ parties could be ridiculous and an unworkable minority would make a constitutional crisis. If the Tories can make it as the polls predict then it's a very good thing.

Another solid W for the Conservative party, and another sizable loss for Labour. This is a good thing, of course.

After Hours | EarningsWatch
Pound soars after U.K. poll puts Tories in the lead

The pound GBPUSD, +1.2459% jumped to as high as $1.5429 Thursday evening after an exit poll from the U.K. general election put the Conservatives in the lead by a surprisingly large margin.


http://www.marketwatch.com/

It will be a very shaky government if these election results hold up. Somewhat more stable than the government in Israel, but shaky nonetheless.

What man observers don't realize is that the real driver of left leaning policy advocacy isn't Labour, but the SNP. I wouldn't take this as a huge loss for Labour, but rather a British electorate moving leftwards, albeit by probably not enough to switch the government. If you take a look at Centrist and Centre-Right parties...They're going to end up losing seats, not gaining them.

Old Coalition - Tories + Lib Dems 358 seats for a majority of 23. New Coalition Tories + Lib Dems 326 Seats for a majority of ONE.

Could be I guess, I'm not as closely tuned on to all this as you apparently are.

Tories gained 10 seats, Labour lost twice that many. I guess you can somehow spin that as an "electorate moving leftwards"...

Its not that they lost seats, but who they lost them to. You can't shoehorn an American political dynamic onto this....it just doesn't work. The Tories might have more control of their majority, but their majority will be very much weakened. You can pick your poison I suppose..

I'm not sure that you're going to get a more Euroskeptic or Conservative government out of this election....

(05-07-2015 04:51 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:38 PM)ODUgradstudent Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:23 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  BBC projects Tories with 316 seats. This would be an interesting development as it would perhaps make a government possible without the SNP. UKIP gets 2 seats out of 650.

If these results hold..

Milliband would have real trouble forming a government. He might have a shot if Sein Fein would take the seats they win (Which isn't happening).

But it looks like Cameron might have trouble too.

But with the SNP + Plaid + SDLP with a whopping 70 seats (all huge supporters of the EU), UKIP and the Euroskeptic agenda a non-starter. Euroskeptism lost big time.

---

Oddly enough, UKIP turned out to be a paper tiger and a very minor player in all of this. Basically, the Lib Dems lost seats to the SNP (which is actually more to the left than the Lib Dems). And Labor lost seats to the Tories and the SNP.

I voted Conservative last time but didn't this time because I don't like their education policies and lack of Lords reform (I actually didn't vote for anyone), but the best thing for the UK is to have a workable majority or minority government. The potential clusterfucks of 3+ parties could be ridiculous and an unworkable minority would make a constitutional crisis. If the Tories can make it as the polls predict then it's a very good thing.

Another solid W for the Conservative party, and another sizable loss for Labour. This is a good thing, of course.

After Hours | EarningsWatch
Pound soars after U.K. poll puts Tories in the lead

The pound GBPUSD, +1.2459% jumped to as high as $1.5429 Thursday evening after an exit poll from the U.K. general election put the Conservatives in the lead by a surprisingly large margin.


http://www.marketwatch.com/

Sounds like Obama campaigned for the libtards at the last moment.....

(05-07-2015 05:44 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:51 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:38 PM)ODUgradstudent Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:23 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  BBC projects Tories with 316 seats. This would be an interesting development as it would perhaps make a government possible without the SNP. UKIP gets 2 seats out of 650.

If these results hold..

Milliband would have real trouble forming a government. He might have a shot if Sein Fein would take the seats they win (Which isn't happening).

But it looks like Cameron might have trouble too.

But with the SNP + Plaid + SDLP with a whopping 70 seats (all huge supporters of the EU), UKIP and the Euroskeptic agenda a non-starter. Euroskeptism lost big time.

---

Oddly enough, UKIP turned out to be a paper tiger and a very minor player in all of this. Basically, the Lib Dems lost seats to the SNP (which is actually more to the left than the Lib Dems). And Labor lost seats to the Tories and the SNP.

I voted Conservative last time but didn't this time because I don't like their education policies and lack of Lords reform (I actually didn't vote for anyone), but the best thing for the UK is to have a workable majority or minority government. The potential clusterfucks of 3+ parties could be ridiculous and an unworkable minority would make a constitutional crisis. If the Tories can make it as the polls predict then it's a very good thing.

Another solid W for the Conservative party, and another sizable loss for Labour. This is a good thing, of course.

After Hours | EarningsWatch
Pound soars after U.K. poll puts Tories in the lead

The pound GBPUSD, +1.2459% jumped to as high as $1.5429 Thursday evening after an exit poll from the U.K. general election put the Conservatives in the lead by a surprisingly large margin.


http://www.marketwatch.com/

Sounds like Obama campaigned for the libtards at the last moment.....

Obama doesn't care who wins the UK election...so long as the Euroskeptics don't win. Its looking like they didn't, so its a win for the USA.

By the way, the Conservatives hired Jim Messina from the Obama campaign to help them out. Axelrod is working with Labour.

(05-07-2015 04:50 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:38 PM)ODUgradstudent Wrote:  

(05-07-2015 04:23 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  BBC projects Tories with 316 seats. This would be an interesting development as it would perhaps make a government possible without the SNP. UKIP gets 2 seats out of 650.

If these results hold..

Milliband would have real trouble forming a government. He might have a shot if Sein Fein would take the seats they win (Which isn't happening).

But it looks like Cameron might have trouble too.

But with the SNP + Plaid + SDLP with a whopping 70 seats (all huge supporters of the EU), UKIP and the Euroskeptic agenda a non-starter. Euroskeptism lost big time.

---

Oddly enough, UKIP turned out to be a paper tiger and a very minor player in all of this. Basically, the Lib Dems lost seats to the SNP (which is actually more to the left than the Lib Dems). And Labor lost seats to the Tories and the SNP.

I voted Conservative last time but didn't this time because I don't like their education policies and lack of Lords reform (I actually didn't vote for anyone), but the best thing for the UK is to have a workable majority or minority government. The potential clusterfucks of 3+ parties could be ridiculous and an unworkable minority would make a constitutional crisis. If the Tories can make it as the polls predict then it's a very good thing.

Here's how this works.

The far left are the Greens, the Respect Party, the SDLP, the SNP, and Plaid C. All of them are strong supporters of the EU, support devolution of powers, and more liberal economic policies. They'll have ~ 67 votes.

The center-left are the Lib Dems's and Labour and Alliance. They support the EU and somewhat more liberal economic policies. They'll have ~ 250 votes.

The DUP (8 votes) wont enter a government with the SNP. Unless that happens, No majority government for Milliband. Its possible I suppose.

---

Its looking like another Tory Lib Dem government though.

You don't need to try and school me on this subject, I know far more than you do.

Tom can give his irrelevant all he wants, UKIP is going to have seats in Westminster, and so far they are WAY WAY up in the percentage of votes they're taking.

If Libs don't like the election results they call the new government unstable. Of course if the leftists win the government is rock steady.

UK vote share change since 2010 on counted votes thus far:

UKIP +17.2%
Labour +3.9%
Green +3.3%
TUSC +0.3%
Conservatives -0.4%
Liberal Democrats -13.6%

What's amazing is that the Greens might win two seats with these policies:

Cut borrowing by 75%
Raise public spending by 20%
Raise the minimum wage to £10 (currently $15.40)
Tax salaries over £150k at 60%, not to raise money but "to deter high salaries"
The Robin Hood Tax
Increase NHS spending by 11% immediately
Renationalize the railways and cut transport fares by 10%
Increase the public pension by 55%

With these kinds of policies I'm surprised they didn't add helping Aslan stop the White Witch from taking Narnia to the manifesto.

(05-07-2015 06:50 PM)ODUgradstudent Wrote:  With these kinds of policies I'm surprised they didn't add helping Aslan stop the White Witch from taking Narnia to the manifesto.

The conclusions so far:

- UKIP no longer an "other" 6/7/8 party for domestic affairs in the UK ... it is #3.
- The Liberal Democrats are not longer a nationally relevant party in the UK.
- Scotland is continuing to lurch away from the UK. Them leaving the UK seems more a question of when rather than if.

Tories are outperforming exit polling a bit, and standard polling before the election quite substantially. They may get an outright majority ... it will be close.