Same issue as Friday night. 13 hits and only 3 runs.

(02-15-2015 05:29 PM)Antarius Wrote:  Well, good news is that Rice beats Texas twice.
Bad news is that Rice also beat Rice twice.

Fielding needs work. Badly.

Yep.

Feels like we won 2 of the 3 phases (hitting and pitching) but the third one (fielding) cost us two games.

Also ... it's always nice to get my annual Week 1 reminder how bad college baseball umpiring sucks (balls and strikes were bad on both sides).

(02-15-2015 05:33 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Same issue as Friday night. 13 hits and only 3 runs.

It's awesome when we continue to give away multiple outs every game.

I'm not one of these binary "don't ever bunt in any circumstance" guys ... but, well, we continue to give away multiple outs in every game.

On the flip side ... Augie gave us a run by issuing an IBB to Chandler in the freaking 5th inning.

All in all though ... feels like we've got a chance to be a really good team this year - particularly once all of our arms come back.

(02-15-2015 05:36 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 05:33 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Same issue as Friday night. 13 hits and only 3 runs.

It's awesome when we continue to give away multiple outs every game.

I'm not one of these binary "don't ever bunt in any circumstance" guys ... but, well, we continue to give away multiple outs in every game.

On the flip side ... Augie gave us a run by issuing an IBB to Chandler in the freaking 5th inning.

All in all though ... feels like we've got a chance to be a really good team this year - particularly once all of our arms come back.

We've got production from a lot of different guys, eight with at least an RBI this weekend, so that bodes very well for not having any weak links in the lineup. Great speed overall as well. Bunting is definitely improved in my opinion, although Texas' players continue to outclass us in that regard.

Did not care for the bunt in B10. That was going for the tie, which is the same as playing not to lose.

Looking forward to HBU on Tuesday, you have to wonder who we will throw... Gotta think it will be all staff.

Any play-by-play for both halves of the tenth would be appreciated...

(02-15-2015 05:41 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 05:36 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 05:33 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Same issue as Friday night. 13 hits and only 3 runs.

It's awesome when we continue to give away multiple outs every game.

I'm not one of these binary "don't ever bunt in any circumstance" guys ... but, well, we continue to give away multiple outs in every game.

On the flip side ... Augie gave us a run by issuing an IBB to Chandler in the freaking 5th inning.

All in all though ... feels like we've got a chance to be a really good team this year - particularly once all of our arms come back.

We've got production from a lot of different guys, eight with at least an RBI this weekend, so that bodes very well for not having any weak links in the lineup. Great speed overall as well. Bunting is definitely improved in my opinion, although Texas' players continue to outclass us in that regard.

UT is clearly more fundamentally sound-- both in the small ball game, on the bases and, especially, defensively. The difference today is that for the first time this series, they pitched a very good ball game; not as good as our guys, but still very good; particularly LHP Bellows, who came in in middle relief and shut us down for 3.1 innings.

On offense, even more than the lack of clutch hitting, the problem was that both JC and Hunter had very poor days at the plate (meaning poor quality ABs). It's one of the reasons why Coach elected to PH Hunter with Fox at the end of the game.

Pitching-wise, would could not have hoped for a better first series from our guys....and a lot of guys saw action. Great effort today by Orewiler (5 hits, 10 Ks in 6.2 IP). Unfortunately, IMO, The OG kept him in one batter too long (as he appeared to lose his mechanics with the 4-pitch walk to the #9 batter that proceeded the line shot to RF that was misplayed by Warren, who was obviously gearing himself for what would have been throw home before coming up with the ball). Otto was again magnificent (he struck out the first 7 batters he faced at the collegiate level), and it was great to see Jordan Stephens appear to be his old self to get us out of a jam in the 9th inning. As for JWillie, who took the loss, he got two quick outs and then was pinched big time by the home plate umpire (who was as inconsistent with this strike zone the final 3 innings as he was consistent the first seven innings). He did not pitch badly at all. In all, we struck out 17 Longhorns today in 10 innings of work. Heck, even Willie Amador came in an unbelievable pressure situation for his collegiate debut, and recorded the 3rd out strikeout, stranding two runners in scoring position.

As has been said by others, though individual players have had a bad game here and a bad game there, we had 12 or 13 different guys-- many of them newcomers-- who all contributed offensively this weekend. Teykl had a bad day in the 2nd game last night, but came back strong today. Stainback had a poor opening game, but has been on fire ever since. Kirby Taylor is officially en fuego, and against both right-handed and left-handed pitching. Chandler had another 2 hits, Byrd had another 3 hits. Gray, Lewis, Williamson and Myers have all contributed at one point or another.

And let's not forget who we were playing against this weekend; a team that was a consensus Top 10 preseason pick, with a very strong returning starting lineup.

Lots to be encouraged about going forward. This team has the potential to be very, very good.

(02-15-2015 05:47 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  Did not care for the bunt in B10. That was going for the tie, which is the same as playing not to lose.

The book says go for the win on the road and the tie at home. There is hardly a manager or head coach who would not have bunted in that situation. It was absolutely the right thing to do.

(02-15-2015 06:53 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 05:41 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 05:36 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 05:33 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Same issue as Friday night. 13 hits and only 3 runs.

It's awesome when we continue to give away multiple outs every game.

I'm not one of these binary "don't ever bunt in any circumstance" guys ... but, well, we continue to give away multiple outs in every game.

On the flip side ... Augie gave us a run by issuing an IBB to Chandler in the freaking 5th inning.

All in all though ... feels like we've got a chance to be a really good team this year - particularly once all of our arms come back.

We've got production from a lot of different guys, eight with at least an RBI this weekend, so that bodes very well for not having any weak links in the lineup. Great speed overall as well. Bunting is definitely improved in my opinion, although Texas' players continue to outclass us in that regard.

UT is clearly more fundamentally sound-- both in the small ball game, on the bases and, especially, defensively. The difference today is that for the first time this series, they pitched a very good ball game; not as good as our guys, but still very good; particularly LHP Bellows, who came in in middle relief and shut us down for 3.1 innings.

On offense, even more than the lack of clutch hitting, the problem was that both JC and Hunter had very poor days at the plate (meaning poor quality ABs). It's one of the reasons why Coach elected to PH Hunter with Fox at the end of the game.

Pitching-wise, would could not have hoped for a better first series from our guys....and a lot of guys saw action. Great effort today by Orewiler (5 hits, 10 Ks in 6.2 IP). Unfortunately, IMO, The OG kept him in one batter too long (as he appeared to lose his mechanics with the 4-pitch walk to the #9 batter that proceeded the line shot to RF that was misplayed by Warren, who was obviously gearing himself for what would have been throw home before coming up with the ball). Otto was again magnificent (he struck out the first 7 batters he faced at the collegiate level), and it was great to see Jordan Stephens appear to be his old self to get us out of a jam in the 9th inning. As for JWillie, who took the loss, he got two quick outs and then was pinched big time by the home plate umpire (who was as inconsistent with this strike zone the final 3 innings as he was consistent the first seven innings). He did not pitch badly at all. In all, we struck out 17 Longhorns today in 10 innings of work. Heck, even Willie Amador came in an unbelievable pressure situation for his collegiate debut, and recorded the 3rd out strikeout, stranding two runners in scoring position.

As has been said by others, though individual players have had a bad game here and a bad game there, we had 12 or 13 different guys-- many of them newcomers-- who all contributed offensively this weekend. Teykl had a bad day in the 2nd game last night, but came back strong today. Stainback had a poor opening game, but has been on fire ever since. Kirby Taylor is officially en fuego, and against both right-handed and left-handed pitching. Chandler had another 2 hits, Byrd had another 3 hits. Gray, Lewis, Williamson and Myers have all contributed at one point or another.

And let's not forget who we were playing against this weekend; a team that was a consensus Top 10 preseason pick, with a very strong returning starting lineup.

Lots to be encouraged about going forward. This team has the potential to be very, very good.

+1

Those were two very, very good baseball teams playing to a dead heat over the weekend. Way, way more reasons to be encouraged than discouraged.

(02-15-2015 07:31 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Those were two very, very good baseball teams playing to a dead heat over the weekend. Way, way more reasons to be encouraged than discouraged.

One can be disappointed, as we beat ourselves in those two losses, but anyone who came away discouraged about this year's team is in need of a brain rewiring. Everyone knows how upbeat I have been regarding our pitching staff, and their performance this weekend even exceeded my high expectations. McCanna, Orewiler, Salinas, Otto, Ditman and Williamson were outstanding...and Jordan Stephens, remarkably, had his same filthy stuff after only throwing one bullpen session. Sure, it's going to take 4+ weeks before he regains his arm strength, but his heater topped out at 95, he had his "plus" curveball, AND he was throwing strikes! From all reports, Josh Pettitte will be ready to make his debut next weekend in Tucson, though he too will required 4+ weeks before he's capable of extended work. And then there's Duplantier and Teykl, both working their way through arm soreness. I'm confident Fox will return to form, and both McCarthy and Solecitto (who himself is still coming back from 6+ months of arm soreness) will no doubt contribute. Can't wait 'til Tuesday to see who The OG throws out there to start against DBU-- Amador? Rodgers? Myers? or McCarthy?

(02-15-2015 07:37 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 07:31 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Those were two very, very good baseball teams playing to a dead heat over the weekend. Way, way more reasons to be encouraged than discouraged.

One can be disappointed, as we beat ourselves in those two losses, but anyone who came away discouraged about this year's team is in need of a brain rewiring.

Walt ... I absolutely agree with you re: this team's potential.

I am little more concerned with early season results than I otherwise would be given a) the glut of Top 25 caliber teams in the region (regional/national seed competition), b) the possibility of an enhanced RPI drain from this year's CUSA.

That being said ... a lot to build on from this weekend.

(02-15-2015 07:50 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 07:37 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 07:31 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Those were two very, very good baseball teams playing to a dead heat over the weekend. Way, way more reasons to be encouraged than discouraged.

One can be disappointed, as we beat ourselves in those two losses, but anyone who came away discouraged about this year's team is in need of a brain rewiring.

Walt ... I absolutely agree with you re: this team's potential.

I am little more concerned with early season results than I otherwise would be given a) the glut of Top 25 caliber teams in the region (regional/national seed competition), b) the possibility of an enhanced RPI drain from this year's CUSA.

That being said ... a lot to build on from this weekend.

Yes, it is quite possible we'll fail to host and to no fault of our own, but with our pitching staff we certainly have the firepower to win a road regional and super-regional.

If you had told me Friday at 5:59 pm that we would split 2-2, I would have taken it.

If, instead, you had told me we would outhit them 48-31 and would score more earned runs than them in every game*, I'd have been disappointed with a split.

Oh, well, as has been noted, there is much to be excited about.






* Technically, today was a tie in the earned runs department, but only because an unearned run allowed it to go to extras.

(02-15-2015 06:54 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 05:47 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  Did not care for the bunt in B10. That was going for the tie, which is the same as playing not to lose.

The book says go for the win on the road and the tie at home. There is hardly a manager or head coach who would not have bunted in that situation. It was absolutely the right thing to do.

On average the chance of winning the game is higher if you try to hit in that situation. Even in college ball. If the book says otherwise then it is wrong.

(02-16-2015 09:02 PM)DFW Owl Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 06:54 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 05:47 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  Did not care for the bunt in B10. That was going for the tie, which is the same as playing not to lose.

The book says go for the win on the road and the tie at home. There is hardly a manager or head coach who would not have bunted in that situation. It was absolutely the right thing to do.

On average the chance of winning the game is higher if you try to hit in that situation. Even in college ball. If the book says otherwise then it is wrong.

On average you will score MORE runs not bunting than bunting in that situation. But, the chances of scoring ONE run are higher with the bunt. Not bunting, you will have more innings where you score more runs, but you will also have more innings where you don't score. Bill James would bunt there.

(02-16-2015 09:19 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(02-16-2015 09:02 PM)DFW Owl Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 06:54 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(02-15-2015 05:47 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  Did not care for the bunt in B10. That was going for the tie, which is the same as playing not to lose.

The book says go for the win on the road and the tie at home. There is hardly a manager or head coach who would not have bunted in that situation. It was absolutely the right thing to do.

On average the chance of winning the game is higher if you try to hit in that situation. Even in college ball. If the book says otherwise then it is wrong.

On average you will score MORE runs not bunting than bunting in that situation. But, the chances of scoring ONE run are higher with the bunt. Not bunting, you will have more innings where you score more runs, but you will also have more innings where you don't score. Bill James would bunt there.

The goal is to win the game...not to take the game to extras. By bunting you hurt your chance to score 2+ runs in the 9th and end the game right there. If you are tied then on average it becomes slightly in favor of bunting.

Edit: In MLB actually the only time where it makes sense to bunt is with a man on 2nd where you need you need only one run to win (not tie) the game. Even with a man on 1st and no outs you slightly hurt your chances to score at least one run if you bunt. (Yes, on average college ball is a little different due to worse bunting and especially worse fielding.)

First, the bunt in the 9th was with the score tied. One run wins it there.

As for the 10th down 1 run, there are three possible outcomes--you score 0 and lose, you score 1 and play on, or you score more than 1 and win outright. Not bunting increases the probability of scoring more than 1 and winning outright, but it also increases the probability of scoring 0 and losing. Bunting increases the probability of scoring exactly 1 and going to the 11th.

(02-16-2015 10:21 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  First, the bunt in the 9th was with the score tied. One run wins it there.

As for the 10th down 1 run, there are three possible outcomes--you score 0 and lose, you score 1 and play on, or you score more than 1 and win outright. Not bunting increases the probability of scoring more than 1 and winning outright, but it also increases the probability of scoring 0 and losing. Bunting increases the probability of scoring exactly 1 and going to the 11th.

Yes, thanks...I meant 10th. Analysis has definitely shown though that at the MLB level you should absolutely not bunt in that situation. Obviously this is true since even your chance of scoring one run is slightly reduced! In college maybe (depending on the hitter, defense, pitcher) it may often make sense to bunt if you need just one run to win....but it is not so different that you should normally do it if you are behind a run.