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Unless a divine miracle comes to pass, UAB basketball will most likely be looking at new competition in conference play for the 2015-16 season. With that, I wanted to see how various landing spots looked. All projections from rpiforecast.com So, here ya go:

A-10 (#7): Definitely a longshot, as we are a complete geographic outlier, yet our best hope. Top 3 teams: Davidson (26), VCU (48), GW (55)

AAC: (#8): Another longshot, but would reunite us with former conference mates. Of the first three conferences listed here, it's the best geographic fit. Top 3 teams: SMU (34), Cincinnati (60), UConn (72)

MVC: (#10): Not a great geographic fit either. But decent teams: Wichita State (16), Northern Iowa (32), Evansville (53)

CAA: (#14): Fairly decent geographically, but the last round of realignment left this league without brand names VCU, George Mason and Old Dominion. Top 3 teams: Hofstra (61), William & Mary (107), James Madison (117)

C*USA (#16): If we stay, we will be in a bottom-heavy league. 8 of the 14 teams in the league this year are projected to finish sub-200 (and we're one of them ) Top 3 teams: UTEP (63), Charlotte (67), Old Dominion (69)

Sun Belt (#19): A very realistic option, sadly. Should we return to the league, we will be in a geographically-friendly conference with one good team (Georgia State - 52) and several craptastic ones.

Big South (#23): Really starting to puke now. This Carolina-centric league has no one projected to finish in the Top 100. Top team: Cliff Ellis' Coastal Carolina (142)

A-Sun (#25): A very real fear for Blazer fans, the A-Sun features 8 teams scattered across Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky. Top team: Florida Gulf Coast (62) Also features the JU Dolphins, an old-time rival. Bonus: A-Sun sponsors sand volleyball!

SoCon (#26): The most dreadful option, the Southern Conference would pit the Blazers against crosstown rival Samford. Of the 10 teams in the league, 8 are projected to be sub-200. Wofford runs the show around this league.

So there you have it--should we swing for the fence and miss with the A-10 or AAC, I believe the Sun Belt will be the most likely option.

Depression is setting in big time.

(12-13-2014 06:50 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  Depression is setting in big time.

No lie.

Seeing it set out like that is definitely pretty sad.

OVC ?

(12-13-2014 06:50 PM)KevMo4UAB Wrote:  Depression is setting in big time.

Depression just setting in now? We've won 3 NCAA tournament games in the last 28 years.

Conference affiliation can make a big difference, but it does not have to define you. Gonzaga and Butler were household names in leagues that were no better than many of those mentioned above.

I hope for the A10, but I think CAA is realistic and honestly probably better than CUSA more often than not.

The OVC is currently projected at 27th. I stopped after the SoCon to clean up all of the puke and shame.

(12-13-2014 05:51 PM)FNblazer Wrote:  Unless a divine miracle comes to pass, UAB basketball will most likely be looking at new competition in conference play for the 2015-16 season. With that, I wanted to see how various landing spots looked. All projections from rpiforecast.com So, here ya go:

A-10 (#7): Definitely a longshot, as we are a complete geographic outlier, yet our best hope. Top 3 teams: Davidson (26), VCU (48), GW (55)

AAC: (#8): Another longshot, but would reunite us with former conference mates. Of the first three conferences listed here, it's the best geographic fit. Top 3 teams: SMU (34), Cincinnati (60), UConn (72)

MVC: (#10): Not a great geographic fit either. But decent teams: Wichita State (16), Northern Iowa (32), Evansville (53)

CAA: (#14): Fairly decent geographically, but the last round of realignment left this league without brand names VCU, George Mason and Old Dominion. Top 3 teams: Hofstra (61), William & Mary (107), James Madison (117)

C*USA (#16): If we stay, we will be in a bottom-heavy league. 8 of the 14 teams in the league this year are projected to finish sub-200 (and we're one of them ) Top 3 teams: UTEP (63), Charlotte (67), Old Dominion (69)

Sun Belt (#19): A very realistic option, sadly. Should we return to the league, we will be in a geographically-friendly conference with one good team (Georgia State - 52) and several craptastic ones.

Big South (#23): Really starting to puke now. This Carolina-centric league has no one projected to finish in the Top 100. Top team: Cliff Ellis' Coastal Carolina (142)

A-Sun (#25): A very real fear for Blazer fans, the A-Sun features 8 teams scattered across Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky. Top team: Florida Gulf Coast (62) Also features the JU Dolphins, an old-time rival. Bonus: A-Sun sponsors sand volleyball!

SoCon (#26): The most dreadful option, the Southern Conference would pit the Blazers against crosstown rival Samford. Of the 10 teams in the league, 8 are projected to be sub-200. Wofford runs the show around this league.

So there you have it--should we swing for the fence and miss with the A-10 or AAC, I believe the Sun Belt will be the most likely option.

There's been some discussion over on some of the A-10 boards. It wasn't all bad (you have some supporters), but its a long shot. Here are the issues.

1) Numbers - The Atlantic 10 has 14 members. There really isn't a need for another team unless the Big East raids 2 of our teams to go to 12 (see that below)

2) Geography - With the exception of St Louis and to a certain extent - Dayton and Davidson, the A-10 is really compact. Its a bus league, not a plane league. Most of the alumni are concentrated in the NE Corridor. Bham isn't really close enough to Charlotte or St Louis or Dayton to really close any gaps. And if the A-10 gets raided, the most likely teams to be poached would be St Louis and Dayton (Catholic schools in cities). If that were the case, the A-10 would probably do nothing and sit at 12 or pick teams on the East Coast. How many fans would you guys send to Brooklyn or DC for the Conference Tournament?

3) Fit - The A-10 does have public schools (GMU, VCU, URI, UMass). All four of them are in the footprint. 3 of them have been to a Final Four in the last 16 years (all of them to a final 8 in that time span). 2 of them are flagship state institutions.

4) Institutional Control - Its not y'all's fault, but I would think that the current problems with your BOT is not confidence inspiring. The A-10 is very concerned with schools not investing in their programs. I doubt Dr. Watts' "leadership" is going to inspire much confidence.

5) History - We've had a couple of whiffs in our expansion plans. One of them was a CUSA refugee (UNCC - St Louis did much better). Another was a public school (GMU - which has been a dumpster fire). And then there's Fordham (which has been awful).

That being said, pretty much everyone recognizes that UAB has a good basketball program that would provide value in most years to the A-10. And you aren't too far out of the footprint. You're in a city. You have decent fan support.

I think the biggest issue is that the A-10 doesn't need to expand right now. The 16 game format (13 once 3 home and away) works pretty well.

I'd have no problem seeing Geo Washington play UAB in conference. But I'm afraid to say that I'd be a bit surprised in the A-10 extended a bid.

By the way, I've heard folks argue on ncaabbs that the A-10 might take Belmont with UAB. I'd be very surprised if that happened.

Best of luck to you guys.

A possible addition to add insult to injury of our demotion is that our present coaches in our remaining sports may not stay around very long for that level of competition. We may have to hire new coaches while restocking the team as our present players transfer. It's not like transferring is a dirty word any more. Hundreds are doing it and we may need some of them.

Hopefully our new interim President will quickly reinstate football.

(12-14-2014 12:12 AM)Southside Blazer 82 Wrote:  Hopefully our new interim President will quickly reinstate football.

If there is a new president, he will make us remember Watts as the pro-UAB president. If the BOT is still in charge, they will put a person in charge that will make Watts look like a maverick.

If it is true that the BOT is behind this whole thing, why do you think they will put someone in charge that will bring football back?

AAC and A-10 would be better than our current conference, in my opinion. I'll hope for either one.

(12-14-2014 12:36 AM)Memphis Blazer Wrote:  

(12-14-2014 12:12 AM)Southside Blazer 82 Wrote:  Hopefully our new interim President will quickly reinstate football.

If there is a new president, he will make us remember Watts as the pro-UAB president. If the BOT is still in charge, they will put a person in charge that will make Watts look like a maverick.

If it is true that the BOT is behind this whole thing, why do you think they will put someone in charge that will bring football back?

Wouldn't we the university as a whole have a hand in the interim/new President given the circumstances? Especially if there's clear wrongdoing questions from the BOT.

(12-14-2014 06:41 AM)Southside Blazer 82 Wrote:  

(12-14-2014 12:36 AM)Memphis Blazer Wrote:  

(12-14-2014 12:12 AM)Southside Blazer 82 Wrote:  Hopefully our new interim President will quickly reinstate football.

If there is a new president, he will make us remember Watts as the pro-UAB president. If the BOT is still in charge, they will put a person in charge that will make Watts look like a maverick.

If it is true that the BOT is behind this whole thing, why do you think they will put someone in charge that will bring football back?

Wouldn't we the university as a whole have a hand in the interim/new President given the circumstances? Especially if there's clear wrongdoing questions from the BOT.

IF the System BOT is willing to give "the university as a whole" any input at all. They don't HAVE to do that, and they probably wouldn't if they had a particular objective in mind.

Just look at the progression: Anne Reynolds - screw the BOT, I'm doing what's best for UAB; Garrison - let the BOT have what they want, but they can do their own dirty work; Ray Watts - give the BOT everything they want. What's next? Can't get much lower than Watts. I believe the BOT leave Watts in place as long as they can, but being the lightning bolt he is he'll have to go sooner or later. The BOT will name an acting president, probably a BOT member(Finis, the *****?), and drag their feet on naming a permanent president so no reversal can be done and eventually name a president that will stand by the Watts decision after things have died down.

(12-14-2014 01:02 PM)WesternBlazer Wrote:  Just look at the progression: Anne Reynolds - screw the BOT, I'm doing what's best for UAB; Garrison - let the BOT have what they want, but they can do their own dirty work; Ray Watts - give the BOT everything they want. What's next? Can't get much lower than Watts. I believe the BOT leave Watts in place as long as they can, but being the lightning bolt he is he'll have to go sooner or later. The BOT will name an acting president, probably a BOT member(Finis, the *****?), and drag their feet on naming a permanent president so no reversal can be done and eventually name a president that will stand by the Watts decision after things have died down.

But where does Condaleeza Rice fit in your scenario?

(12-14-2014 01:34 PM)Memphis Blazer Wrote:  

(12-14-2014 01:02 PM)WesternBlazer Wrote:  Just look at the progression: Anne Reynolds - screw the BOT, I'm doing what's best for UAB; Garrison - let the BOT have what they want, but they can do their own dirty work; Ray Watts - give the BOT everything they want. What's next? Can't get much lower than Watts. I believe the BOT leave Watts in place as long as they can, but being the lightning bolt he is he'll have to go sooner or later. The BOT will name an acting president, probably a BOT member(Finis, the *****?), and drag their feet on naming a permanent president so no reversal can be done and eventually name a president that will stand by the Watts decision after things have died down.

But where does Condaleeza Rice fit in your scenario?

Spelling

The new conference kills UAB Athletics. Exactly what Watts and BOT wanted. You know the casual fan will quit going to games when hard core Blazer fans only attend one or two a year. We're soon to become a Samford in athletics I believe. And I hate it.

It won't kill it if you fight for it. Its a miserable decade of bitching but it can be done.

Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

(12-14-2014 05:08 PM)blazinrunner Wrote:  The new conference kills UAB Athletics. Exactly what Watts and BOT wanted. You know the casual fan will quit going to games when hard core Blazer fans only attend one or two a year. We're soon to become a Samford in athletics I believe. And I hate it.

If this was true, then UAB athletics would have died when Memphis, Louisville and Cincinnati left. Playing teams like Rice, Tulane and FIU would have killed UAB athletics.

It's just a new reality. True fans go to see UAB play, not the opponent.