(12-10-2014 10:54 AM)10thMountain Wrote: None of the Big 12 schools are worth what the right combo of NC/VA ACC schools are (adding another Florida's worth of people to the foot print)
I say wait it out and don't waste valuable slots on marginally valuable Big 12 teams.
10th the only way I see us landing N.C. State and Virginia Tech now is if ESPN can convince the ACC of the viability of making room for Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Notre Dame joining in full would be a plus. If they don't then a second Texas school or W.V.U. could make the 4th.
If, and a big if here, rationality and business sense prevailed here is what the SEC and ACC would look like:
SEC:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M
Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt
Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech
ACC:
Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia,
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
Kansas, Miami, Oklahoma, Texas
The SEC gets its 19 million more viewers without having to upset the balance of anything and putting V.T. and S.C. in a position to compete annually keeping that division energized.
The ACC adds three football national brands to get the help they need the most. They add 33 million conservatively to their national audience, but more importantly gain the gravitas with which to compel viewing.
But, instead what we are getting is blowback from U.N.C., UVa, and Duke because they fear losing control. If that world view is not changed then my friend we are looking at adding OU and Kansas, or OU and West Virginia IMO.
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Occam's Razor says this:
ACC:
Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Louisville, N.C. State, Wake Forest
Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Texas
SEC:
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma
Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
Why is Chapel Hill so resistant to the swap approach? They know the SEC has Texas with A&M. They also know their greatest advantage is in exclusivity in North Carolina and Virginia. In their reasoning if the SEC obtained Virginia Tech and N.C. State the SEC adds nearly 19 million viewers. They know the SEC already has the Texas footprint so if they added it they would be in essence catching up, but by giving up exclusivity to North Carolina and Virginia they would be losing the viewer battle with the SEC by 19 million. Kansas and Oklahoma add little over 6 million between them. They also know that the SEC commands the attention of viewers. So in their minds yielding on North Carolina and Virginia places them in the inferior position with regard to the SEC in perpetuity. Therefore they are intransigent.
What I feel they are shortsighted about is the leverage they would have to get N.D. all in with the addition of Texas.
That is why I feel that to round out to 16 the most likely candidates for the SEC are still, like it or not, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas with West Virginia as a possibility. Without question the best markets are in North Carolina and Virginia. But without question the best content is in Texas and Oklahoma. Second to that duo would be Florida State and Clemson, but ESPN can not afford to take them out of the ACC or they have no football to push there at all. So if the ACC remains intact with the hope of luring N.D. all in, then SEC expansion will come to the West and our dollar value will be boosted in both ESPN, the SECN, and CBS with the additions of Texas or Oklahoma for football, or Oklahoma and Kansas for football and hoops, or the possibility of a market add with a content add in Oklahoma and West Virginia, but I think the latter is on down the line in preference. Quite frankly from a SECN perspective adding all four would be the grand slam.
Remember Texas and OU either add to or match the SEC's revenue generation and attendance. Their fans travel well. They love football. Their fans tune in in proportions approximating those of SEC fans. All of this would be absent from the Tar Heels and Cavaliers or from the Wolfpack and the Hokies. All we get there is cable TV money. We won't get large football travel crowds. They will show up in Rupp and at the O'Connell Center but that is about it. I just think that the only reason the SEC has looked at those states is the current cable market or maybe out of some latent desire to rebuild the map of Dixie. The best and most profitable additions the SEC could make would be Texas and Oklahoma. If that is offensive to the Aggies I understand it, but it wouldn't stop a good business decision. Kansas and West Virginia wouldn't help attendance, but they are both profitable and one thing people don't give W.V.U. enough credit for is a decent basketball program.
So to 16 Texas and Oklahoma are ideal. To 18 add Kansas and West Virginia. Strategically adding all four to the SEC locks in the SEC's advantages in the TV world based on the only model that will not change, content. It is the smartest and safest move and it removes all competitive advantages left to either the PAC, Big 10 or ACC with regards to the SEC's market dominance. And some decent basketball venues to travel to within Kentucky's range would really help the Wildcats feel more secure with regards to the upside of hoops in the SEC.