CSNbbs

Let's have a poll and discuss:

Personally I'm torn about it. Ideally taking the most valuable to properties left in the Big 12 makes a lot of sense. But, so does leaving the Horns out of it. What then? Oklahoma and West Virginia give us two new markets and two new corners to the footprint. Oklahoma and Kansas give us props in both hoops and football and establish a defined Western boundary. But if the PAC and ACC don't help out we might well need to take 4 and hope the Big 10 steps in for some. It is still a Gordian knot, but the time is right while the angst is high to get the ball rolling. I'm leaning toward option 2 because it leaves Kansas for the Big 10 and puts the SEC into 2 new states while locking down Texas. Plus on average that's 4 good football schools.

West: Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas
Central: Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
East: Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, West Virginia

The question I have is can WVU be made to heal and their fanbase act in a civilized manner? If so then I'd go for option 4. Otherwise, just wait around and see how much money ESPN would offer to SEC to aid in dissolving the B12.

(12-08-2014 11:19 AM)vandiver49 Wrote: [ -> ]The question I have is can WVU be made to heal and their fanbase act in a civilized manner? If so then I'd go for option 4. Otherwise, just wait around and see how much money ESPN would offer to SEC to aid in dissolving the B12.

I think the Mountaineers could be heeled. Stop beer sales at the stadium (an SEC requirement anyway) and lace all sodas with salt peter and valium and voila you have a kinder gentler Eer!

The charitable thing to do would be to cede Arkansas and Missouri to the Big 12 so that they could be a viable conference (the SEC really needs neither).

(12-08-2014 12:02 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]The charitable thing to do would be to cede Arkansas and Missouri to the Big 12 so that they could be a viable conference (the SEC really needs neither).

I think you do... this is a ridiculous statement X... a dysfunctional Big XII is why four schools left in the first place. I always respect your posts but you fell off the cliff with this one...

(12-08-2014 12:02 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]The charitable thing to do would be to cede Arkansas and Missouri to the Big 12 so that they could be a viable conference (the SEC really needs neither).

Only if the ACC parts with NCSU and VT as recompense.

Otherwise the SEC is quite content with Arkansas and Mizzou. They wouldn't want to go back to the B12 and no one in Birmingham would force them out. It would be uncouth.

(12-08-2014 12:57 PM)vandiver49 Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-08-2014 12:02 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]The charitable thing to do would be to cede Arkansas and Missouri to the Big 12 so that they could be a viable conference (the SEC really needs neither).

Only if the ACC parts with NCSU and VT as recompense.

Otherwise the SEC is quite content with Arkansas and Mizzou. They wouldn't want to go back to the B12 and no one in Birmingham would force them out. It would be uncouth.

Many analogies have been made pertaining to realignment, but try this one on for size, dominoes. No not set up to fall as in the domino effect, but as they are played. You use a spinner when you need to branch out the board. In 1992 we took South Carolina to spin out our reach to future possibilities in North Carolina and Virginia and we placed another spinner with Arkansas as a bridge to the old SWC. Our last additions framed and expanded that play. We added A&M (an original target in 1992) and an unexpected prize in Missouri which opened possibilities that extend all the way into Iowa Big 10 country and into Kansas and potentially Oklahoma. The Aggies give us almost all of Texas. An Oklahoma school would nail down DFW and then the SEC is set. Prior to taking A&M and Mizzou we were looking at Clemson and Florida State again only to have ESPN encourage Missouri and shut the door on the ACC with the exception of dangled duplicated properties in North Carolina and Virginia that were dangled pre Notre Dame.

Look folks the lay of the land has been established. Florida State was humbled but they are in. The Big 12 had the door slammed on two sets of outreached hands. You tell me which 4 of the P5 are favored by the networks? It's obvious they want to protect some properties in the Big 12 but those are limited. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and possibly West Virginia are properties that might be sought by ESPN. Oklahoma State on the wallet of Boone Pickens might also find their way East. Outside of that there is nothing that is left that is compelling. Next season the GOR for the Big 12 will have about 6 years to go. Most conference moves take two years to complete. A year to work things out followed by a year of notification is the usual procedure. When the GOR has less than half of its life remaining following a declaration of intent to move then anything becomes possible for conferences with deep pockets and networks with deeper pockets who are willing to help them.

Heinous has purported that Texas will go to the ACC with a N.D. style deal and will take two privates with them. Should such a thing occur it is not inconceivable that the SEC would take an Oklahoma school for DFW, Kansas, West Virginia and perhaps Texas Tech who is oil subsidized and improving academically. The problem with H1's approach is he has Oklahoma and Kansas going to the Big 10 and counts on the PAC to take the little brothers. Without OU and Texas I just don't think the PAC takes any of these schools. Therefore either the ACC has to take 5 or more and the SEC gets N.C. State and Virginia Tech at ESPN's urging so that the Network is even more profitable for both the SEC and ESPN, or the SEC expands further into the Big 12 for national brands to increase its content value through the roof. If that happens there will be no cooperation between the SEC and Big 10 because they both want the same schools. So I don't see the viability of this approach any longer.

There are 19 million viewers to be had for two slots in North Carolina and Virginia. It would take Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma and West Virginia being taken to get to 11 million new market homes in the West. Massive expansion in the West is not as viable unless the two national brands are on board. Texas and OU together add enough national viewers (plus the rest of Texas we don't already have and 3.3 million in Oklahoma) and they make the move worth it.

In two, three years at the most, it will be very possible for either the SEC or Big 10 to move on the 4 target schools without the heavy payout of the GOR impeding their moves. If FOX backs the Big 10 they could bankroll it. If ESPN backs the SEC they could bankroll it. Then a foursome of Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas all become possible without little brother unless somebody's (like Oklahoma's) legislature mandates it.

So here's my prediction. If the Big 12 decides to dissolve and it happens within the next two years then look for 1 national brand to go to each of the major conferences and 1 or more brokered tag-a-longs with each. If we wait longer than two years it becomes a winner take all game. And in that scenario the SEC is set up better than anyone to cash in those chips.

If brokered it goes down 1 of 2 ways:
Texas as an independent to the ACC with T.C.U., Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Kansas State. They are going to want a division to be associated with. The ACC will be 16 full members and two partials.

The SEC picks up Virginia Tech and N.C. State, West Virginia and Baylor to go to 18 and the Big 10 gets Oklahoma and Kansas, Iowa State and Connecticut to go to 18.

The brokering is done and all 10 schools placed. The Big 10 gets coverage for Iowa State (Kansas & UConn basketball, Oklahoma football). The SEC gets coverage for Baylor (19 million viewers in N.C. & VA and West Virginia as a corner).

The ACC gets coverage because they get their network have two major national draws associated with it (Texas and N.D.) and they add 33 million viewers in their new Western division.

Or,

Texas leaves for the PAC with Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Kansas State.
Kansas and Connecticut go to the Big 10.
Oklahoma and Baylor/T.C.U. goes to the SEC.
West Virginia goes to the ACC.

If we wait and everyone else does it's a bidding war with the Big 10 in 2017 for Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Rice for the Big 10, or Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and West Virginia for the SEC.

We are still waiting to see if:

Oklahoma can separate from Oklahoma State.

Texas will go west with three, 5 or at all.

Notre Dame will join the ACC as a full member.


Once those questions are answered, things will progress.

I wouldn't mind seeing the SEC add Oklahoma and Kansas. Texas just needs to go independent and try to get a deal done with the ACC.

(12-08-2014 03:54 PM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]We are still waiting to see if:

Oklahoma can separate from Oklahoma State.

Texas will go west with three, 5 or at all.

Notre Dame will join the ACC as a full member.


Once those questions are answered, things will progress.

Oklahoma can separate from Oklahoma State if the Cowboys are also headed to a P5 conference.

Texas may or may not go West but that is dependent upon whether the PAC sells part interest in their network to ESPN.

If Notre Dame doesn't join the ACC as a full member they risk never having a home in the future. They may have to change their moniker from the "Fighting Irish" to the "Flying Dutchman" because every new deck they land on they try to sink.

They've pissed off the Big 10, are too far from the PAC, withheld the kind of support of the Big East that might have kept it alive, and just plain don't fit the SEC. So if they try to schlep off of the ACC they could wear out their welcome with the last and best fitted conference for them.

(12-08-2014 05:08 PM)hawghiggs Wrote: [ -> ]I wouldn't mind seeing the SEC add Oklahoma and Kansas. Texas just needs to go independent and try to get a deal done with the ACC.

Pretty much how I see it too.

I voted do nothing and wait primarily because of the GoR. I think the only way the B12 is cracked is working with other conferences to find at least 8, and preferably all ten, a power conference home so they can dissolve the conference and nullify the GoR. The SEC offering 2-4 schools now will do nothing, unless the unsubstantiated rumors of Texas leaving a back door out of the GoR are true. It will take more than the SEC to break it up or poach schools at this time, almost certainly.

The B12 currently exists because ESPN and FOX bribed OU (SS) in 2011 and UT (LHN) in 2010 to stay to slow down realignment. Additionally, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas all had anchors that made it difficult for them to move on, unless those anchor schools (OSU, TTU, KSU, and to a lesser extent Baylor) were taken care of. The schools without anchors (MU, NU, CU, and A&M with an A&M grad as governor) all left, except ISU, which as a secondary brand in a smaller state, is not in demand (see also KSU and OSU). It is not a long term arrangement, unless the B12 can add P5 schools, and that is not happening until ESPN doesn't pay the ACC enough to keep the SEC and B1G from raiding it. So far ESPN keeps paying just enough to keep the ACC schools on the ACC farm and will probably continue doing so. If the other conferences work together to place all the B12 schools there would not be a lot (or maybe any) resistance to the B12 dying from B12 schools. Picking a four team playoff, instead of a 8 team one, with 5 power conferences was a way to put pressure on the B12 or ACC in hopes they come apart. The committee is stacked with B1G, PAC, and SEC leaning members. Right now the pressure is on the B12.

One point. If the B12 dies we will go to a four team conference champs model with the CCG and CSFGs as mini playoffs. There will no longer be room for independents, if that occurs, and ND and Texas (who has indicated before they prefer NOT to go independent) will have to find permanent homes, unless the ACC works out another method of choosing a conference champ that includes independent Texas and ND. Chances are that would not be popular with the full members and would not work.

(12-09-2014 01:27 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote: [ -> ]I voted do nothing and wait primarily because of the GoR. I think the only way the B12 is cracked is working with other conferences to find at least 8, and preferably all ten, a power conference home so they can dissolve the conference and nullify the GoR. The SEC offering 2-4 schools now will do nothing, unless the unsubstantiated rumors of Texas leaving a back door out of the GoR are true. It will take more than the SEC to break it up or poach schools at this time, almost certainly.

The B12 currently exists because ESPN and FOX bribed OU (SS) in 2011 and UT (LHN) in 2010 to stay to slow down realignment. Additionally, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas all had anchors that made it difficult for them to move on, unless those anchor schools (OSU, TTU, KSU, and to a lesser extent Baylor) were taken care of. The schools without anchors (MU, NU, CU, and A&M with an A&M grad as governor) all left, except ISU, which as a secondary brand in a smaller state, is not in demand (see also KSU and OSU). It is not a long term arrangement, unless the B12 can add P5 schools, and that is not happening until ESPN doesn't pay the ACC enough to keep the SEC and B1G from raiding it. So far ESPN keeps paying just enough to keep the ACC schools on the ACC farm and will probably continue doing so. If the other conferences work together to place all the B12 schools there would not be a lot (or maybe any) resistance to the B12 dying from B12 schools. Picking a four team playoff, instead of a 8 team one, with 5 power conferences was a way to put pressure on the B12 or ACC in hopes they come apart. The committee is stacked with B1G, PAC, and SEC leaning members. Right now the pressure is on the B12.

One point. If the B12 dies we will go to a four team conference champs model with the CCG and CSFGs as mini playoffs. There will no longer be room for independents, if that occurs, and ND and Texas (who has indicated before they prefer NOT to go independent) will have to find permanent homes, unless the ACC works out another method of choosing a conference champ that includes independent Texas and ND. Chances are that would not be popular with the full members and would not work.

These options are much more likely in 2 years. Right now the present GOR has 6 years remaining on it going forward. If agreements are reached behind the scenes now and if a 1 year notification (or even a 2 year notice) is given by August 15th, 2016 to the conference office (not that they wouldn't already know) then the GOR would have only 3 (or 2) years remaining in efficacy. The TV rights then become very purchasable for the new conferences as well as the interested networks.

BTW that is just in time for the Big 10's renewal, and anytime is good now for the SEC provided it gets them a renegotiation which if timed with the Big 10's contract is also good for the networks because then the two biggest conferences are no longer pumping the system at intervals to stay ahead.

But remember this, ESPN may well want the move to come much earlier while they control much more leverage in existing contracts with Kansas and Texas. It is ESPN that must find homes for little brother if they are going to get the jump on a hungry FOX and the Big 10 renewal. By waiting two years to start movement none of the little brothers are guaranteed a thing. It is cheaper and easier to handle things this way, but the leverage shifts to the schools and ESPN's competitors. It also means that two years after that the ACC schools would be hitting the open market too and a precedent would have been set. The reward however would be that the top schools of the Big 12 wouldn't have to be split. Whether FOX or ESPN it becomes much more likely that 1 conference could move to 18 with Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and a 4th school of their choice. If the Big 10 that could well be Rice. If the SEC that could well be West Virginia.

I have said for years that the ideal situation for the SEC if they were to expand to 16 would be to add Oklahoma and Baylor. That's why it's so important to know if Oklahoma can separate from Oklahoma State.
What would happen IF the SEC had to take OSU to get Oklahoma is the subject of another thread.

(12-09-2014 08:41 AM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]I have said for years that the ideal situation for the SEC if they were to expand to 16 would be to add Oklahoma and Baylor. That's why it's so important to know if Oklahoma can separate from Oklahoma State.
What would happen IF the SEC had to take OSU to get Oklahoma is the subject of another thread.

The answer is they wouldn't and the only time they would consider it is if OU was the last viable target remaining or it was part of a bigger move.

All B.S., sensationalism, mild trolling, and jibes aside, let's eliminate the SEC and ACC perspective and simply ask these questions:

1. What properties in the Big 12 would ESPN really like to have?

Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and possibly but to a much lesser extent West Virginia

2. If ESPN could finish out the ACC and SEC at 16 and the Big 12 was the only viable pool of candidates what does Occams' razor tell us?
Texas and fully Notre Dame to the ACC / Kansas and Oklahoma to the SEC

ACC:
Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Louisville, N.C. State, Wake Forest
Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Texas

The connections for Texas are simple: I 10 to Tallahassee, Direct Flight to Miami, Direct Flight to Atlanta

SEC:
Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina

I honestly think the Big Ten could put a wrench in the whole plan. So, if Kansas and Oklahoma make sense for the SEC, ESPN and the SEC will need to be proactive.

Also, I think you could sell the ACC and the PAC 12 to take the other Big 12 members. Or at least enough to dissolve the Big 12. This would be especially true if the Big Ten raids the ACC (Virginia, UNC, or Georgia Tech).

ACC:
Boston College, *Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse,
Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, *West Virginia
N.C. State, Clemson, Florida State, Miami
*Texas, *Baylor, *Oklahoma St., Louisville

PAC 12:
Oregon, OSU, Washington, WSU
California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
Utah, Colorado, Arizona, ASU
*Texas Tech, *TCU, *Kansas St., *Iowa St.
[or just Tech and TCU to the South division and move Utah to the North division]

9-game schedule - play 3 in your division and 2 from each other division. Play everyone in the conference at least once every other year. To help with recruiting, the ACC could schedule it such that everyone plays in Texas or Florida at least once every year (and the other state the following year). The PAC 12 could also schedule so that everyone plays in California every year and in Texas at least once every other year.

What I find interesting is how the B12 not taking Louisville and Cincinnati off the board when they expanded with WVU may have ultimately doomed the conference. Lock up the Ohio Valley and where does the ACC turn when Maryland and Rutgers bolt for the B1G? Swofford goes with the only option available, UCONN and all hell breaks loose at FSU, Clemson and GT. No one signs the grant of rights and we are probably looking at a full scale departure of the football first schools in the ACC.

(12-09-2014 06:36 PM)vandiver49 Wrote: [ -> ]What I find interesting is how the B12 not taking Louisville and Cincinnati off the board when they expanded with WVU may have ultimately doomed the conference. Lock up the Ohio Valley and where does the ACC turn when Maryland and Rutgers bolt for the B1G? Swofford goes with the only option available, UCONN and all hell breaks loose at FSU, Clemson and GT. No one signs the grant of rights and we are probably looking at a full scale departure of the football first schools in the ACC.

It's true that could have happened. I think the more important observation, the one that is still applicable, is that Texas and Oklahoma chose not to go back to 12. That decision is why I knew from the beginning that they didn't really want to keep the conference alive, but rather just buy time to leverage the best possible landing spot with the most possible concessions. It was truly a me first decision, which it still remains today. They are not going to go to 12 with this list of candidates.

Now where they miscalculated is that I do believe they entertained the notion that the ACC would be raided by both the Big 10 and then the SEC would be encouraged to take the properties that ESPN wanted to shelter, and that out of that carnage they would land 4 to 6 top prospects. But if Notre Dame goes all in ESPN will defend the ACC to the death. It will be easier for the Network to finagle rights to Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas (possibly W.V.U.) and to supplement their two conferences with them than it would be to try to rebuild the Big 12.

(12-09-2014 06:43 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-09-2014 06:36 PM)vandiver49 Wrote: [ -> ]What I find interesting is how the B12 not taking Louisville and Cincinnati off the board when they expanded with WVU may have ultimately doomed the conference. Lock up the Ohio Valley and where does the ACC turn when Maryland and Rutgers bolt for the B1G? Swofford goes with the only option available, UCONN and all hell breaks loose at FSU, Clemson and GT. No one signs the grant of rights and we are probably looking at a full scale departure of the football first schools in the ACC.

It's true that could have happened. I think the more important observation, the one that is still applicable, is that Texas and Oklahoma chose not to go back to 12. That decision is why I knew from the beginning that they didn't really want to keep the conference alive, but rather just buy time to leverage the best possible landing spot with the most possible concessions. It was truly a me first decision, which it still remains today. They are not going to go to 12 with this list of candidates.

Now where they miscalculated is that I do believe they entertained the notion that the ACC would be raided by both the Big 10 and then the SEC would be encouraged to take the properties that ESPN wanted to shelter, and that out of that carnage they would land 4 to 6 top prospects. But if Notre Dame goes all in ESPN will defend the ACC to the death. It will be easier for the Network to finagle rights to Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas (possibly W.V.U.) and to supplement their two conferences with them than it would be to try to rebuild the Big 12.

I agree with you that the B12 is a temporary parking lot at this point. But if that is the case, what is ESPN waiting on? It only takes 3 conferences to dissolve the B12, and the WWL has leverage over two. The B1G would be more than happy to assist in dissolving the B12 if they are able to secure a couple of top programs for themselves. The only thing I can thing of is that the Mouse is trying to wait out the PAC, hoping that the limited reach of the P12 network. With the PAC in the FOX/ESPN bosom they both can realign conferences as they see fit and finally control some of these ballooning costs.

(12-10-2014 06:29 AM)vandiver49 Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-09-2014 06:43 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]

(12-09-2014 06:36 PM)vandiver49 Wrote: [ -> ]What I find interesting is how the B12 not taking Louisville and Cincinnati off the board when they expanded with WVU may have ultimately doomed the conference. Lock up the Ohio Valley and where does the ACC turn when Maryland and Rutgers bolt for the B1G? Swofford goes with the only option available, UCONN and all hell breaks loose at FSU, Clemson and GT. No one signs the grant of rights and we are probably looking at a full scale departure of the football first schools in the ACC.

It's true that could have happened. I think the more important observation, the one that is still applicable, is that Texas and Oklahoma chose not to go back to 12. That decision is why I knew from the beginning that they didn't really want to keep the conference alive, but rather just buy time to leverage the best possible landing spot with the most possible concessions. It was truly a me first decision, which it still remains today. They are not going to go to 12 with this list of candidates.

Now where they miscalculated is that I do believe they entertained the notion that the ACC would be raided by both the Big 10 and then the SEC would be encouraged to take the properties that ESPN wanted to shelter, and that out of that carnage they would land 4 to 6 top prospects. But if Notre Dame goes all in ESPN will defend the ACC to the death. It will be easier for the Network to finagle rights to Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas (possibly W.V.U.) and to supplement their two conferences with them than it would be to try to rebuild the Big 12.

I agree with you that the B12 is a temporary parking lot at this point. But if that is the case, what is ESPN waiting on? It only takes 3 conferences to dissolve the B12, and the WWL has leverage over two. The B1G would be more than happy to assist in dissolving the B12 if they are able to secure a couple of top programs for themselves. The only thing I can thing of is that the Mouse is trying to wait out the PAC, hoping that the limited reach of the P12 network. With the PAC in the FOX/ESPN bosom they both can realign conferences as they see fit and finally control some of these ballooning costs.

That's a plausible thought pertaining to the PAC. But where the Big 10 is concerned the issue is the Big 10 wants ACC property and ESPN wants Notre Dame, fully. ESPN wants Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas fully, and the Big 10 wants them so ESPN would only have a minority share after FOX. If ESPN is waiting it is so that they, through either the SEC or ACC, or both, can land those three properties without having to pay to locate Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State. Perhaps with Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma off the boards and into the SEC and ACC, ESPN thinks it can then market those 4 to the PAC anyway. That leaves the ACC with an easy job of then marketing 1 or more of Baylor, West Virginia, and T.C.U. to either the SEC, ACC, PAC or any, or all of the three.

T.C.U. would be a valuable addition market wise to the PAC with the Four other schools mentioned. Just add B.Y.U. to those and now you have a PAC 18. Add Baylor and West Virginia to the SEC and you have 18. If the SEC is happy at 16 then Baylor and West Virginia make the ACC a very nice 18. I'm not sure where the Big 10 fits in with ESPN yet. There could still be bad blood, or they might make up. At some point however, if the ACC hasn't taken Connecticut then the Big 10 will. We'll see.