So assuming scores as they now stand play out, and Baylor, FSU, OSU, and BSU all win --

who's your picks for the 4 playoff spots?

13-0 ACC champ FSU
12-1 SEC champ Alabama
11-1 B12 co-champs Baylor/TCU
12-1 B10 champ OSU
12-1 P12 champ Oregon
11-2 MWC champ Boise
12-1 CUSA champ Marshall
11-2 MAC champ NIU
.. other?


Viva la chaos!

Alabama, OSU, FSU and Ohio State. Yes, I think the Buckeyes deserve it over TCU and Baylor.

(12-06-2014 11:02 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Alabama, OSU, FSU and Ohio State. Yes, I think the Buckeyes deserve it over TCU and Baylor.

After today, I agree, assuming FSU hangs on against Ga Tech. Wonder if this will cause the XII to rethink going to 12 and adding a championship game? Actually, just as soon not this year, since we need some more improvement before we could be on their short list.

Reasons for TCU...their 1 loss is better than Baylor's or Ohio States. In the Big 12 you play everyone so no need for a championship game. If TCU's win over Iowa State was against a nobody I don't see how Ohio State's win over a very questionable #13 is that much better.

(12-07-2014 12:20 AM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  Reasons for TCU...there 1 loss is better than Baylor's or Ohio States. In the Big 12 you play everyone so no need for a championship game. If TCU's win over Iowa State was against a nobody I don't see how Ohio State's win over a very questionable #13 is that much better.

Understand the argument. I just think OSU was so dominant tonight, and with a backup QB, no less, that they will get a huge boost.

All the stuff about comparing good/bad losses is for when teams don't play each other head to head. Baylor played TCU head to head and won, so I think they deserve the spot over TCU, but I don't see that happening

(12-07-2014 12:22 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(12-07-2014 12:20 AM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  Reasons for TCU...there 1 loss is better than Baylor's or Ohio States. In the Big 12 you play everyone so no need for a championship game. If TCU's win over Iowa State was against a nobody I don't see how Ohio State's win over a very questionable #13 is that much better.

Understand the argument. I just think OSU was so dominant tonight, and with a backup QB, no less, that they will get a huge boost.

Might Ohio State's dominating performance knock Florida State out of the 4th spot, since the 'Noles, although undefeated, came so close to losing to the Yellow Jackets?

I'll have my rankings done about 10:30. I am opting for sleep. I am guessing it'll be Oregon, Ohio State, TCU and Alabama (on my list - not a guess as to the committee's choices).

I'm expecting 1) Oregon v. 4) Ohio State in the Rose, and 2) Alabama v. 3) Fla. State in the Sugar. Rose gets its traditional match-up to be pleased with, conference champions get in.

If it's based on TV sets it's Ohio State, if it's football it's TCU / Baylor. I'm old school and still like to see a round robin schedule. I hated to see the PAC 10 go the championship game route.

Remember all the years in the SEC the top two / three teams avoided playing each other?

Question: Should the CFP move to 8 teams should the SEC be limited to 3 / 4 teams?

For me that's the problem with conference championships? If the underdog wins the 'championship game' does the favourite team still get an invite? I would say "no".

I think it should really come down to who is the better conference - Big 12 or Big 10? I'd be curious to see a list of best NC wins for the two conferences and make the decision that way. But I'm not on the committee so my vote doesn't count.

(12-07-2014 12:20 AM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  Reasons for TCU...their 1 loss is better than Baylor's or Ohio States. In the Big 12 you play everyone so no need for a championship game. If TCU's win over Iowa State was against a nobody I don't see how Ohio State's win over a very questionable #13 is that much better.

A "very questionable" #13? You're kidding, right? Also, Ohio State's lone loss occurred the second week of the season with a then inexperienced QB, and they've run the table over the last 11 games. They also have one more victory than either TCU or Baylor.

BTW, IMO, the Committee loses all credibility if its final rankings have TCU over Baylor. Though I do think TCU is the better all-around team, they have finished with identical Big 12 records, have virtually identical SoSs and record vs. Top 25, with Baylor winning the head to head. Head to head HAS to be the tie-breaker, all else being virtually equal, which they are in this case.

And for all those poo-pooing FSU for all their narrow escapes, they had by far the best OOC schedule of any team ranked in the Top 10 (Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Florida).

Not sure this could have turned out much messier for the first year for the committee.

There are round-robin/circular arguments that can be made for each of TCU/Baylor/Ohio St ... and the two teams left out are going to have legitimately angry teams and fan bases.

Without wading into which I team I think is the most deserving, I'll predict that TCU hangs on to a spot.

I think the committee telegraphed last week that they are focusing more on which team they feel has the best chance to win this thing rather than more traditional metrics of rankings - by not only the direct impact of elevating TCU to #3 but also the secondary impact of dropping FSU to #4. There was no traditional polling/committee reason to drop FSU last week and reversing course on this precedent after one week would feel awkward.

Plus - we keep hearing about concepts like "game control" that don't typically factor in the rankings or even with the basketball committee.

So I'll go out on a limb and say that the final four remain unchanged from last week - that the Baylor/OSU fan bases have legitimate complaints - and that this is the first step towards a 6-team playoff (not 8 as a first step) within 5 years.

(12-07-2014 09:34 AM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  Not sure this could have turned out much messier for the first year for the committee.

There are round-robin/circular arguments that can be made for each of TCU/Baylor/Ohio St ... and the two teams left out are going to have legitimately angry teams and fan bases.

Without wading into which I team I think is the most deserving, I'll predict that TCU hangs on to a spot.

I think the committee telegraphed last week that they are focusing more on which team they feel has the best chance to win this thing rather than more traditional metrics of rankings - by not only the direct impact of elevating TCU to #3 but also the secondary impact of dropping FSU to #4. There was no traditional polling/committee reason to drop FSU last week and reversing course on this precedent after one week would feel awkward.

Plus - we keep hearing about concepts like "game control" that typically factor in the rankings or even with the basketball committee.

So I'll go out on a limb and say that the final four remain unchanged from last week - that the Baylor/OSU fan bases have legitimate complaints - and that this is the first step towards a 6-team playoff (not 8 as a first step) within 5 years.

I'd love the hear the "circular argument" (outside of where the Committee currently has them ranked) for TCU being ranked ahead of Baylor. Identical overall and Big 12 records, virtually identical SoS and wins vs. Top 25, with Baylor owning the head-to-head win. Do tell why TCU should be ranked ahead of them?

I think leaving FSU out would be a grave error, notwithstanding their propensity to win narrowly.

The ABC guys last night rightfully applauded FSU OOC schedule--Notre Dame, Okie State and Florida. Now those teams weren't particularly good, and FSU struggled with each of them. But it is by far the best OOC schedule of anyone who is in the conversation.

Moreover, under the "old" BCS system, it would clearly by FSU vs. Alabama in the title game.

I think the purpose of the playoff is to ADD deserving teams, not to drop out the only team that has taken care of business every week.

Okay...I'll bite...

Both teams destroyed SMU. No advantage..(1 point each team)

Both teams played an FCS team and won big. No advantage (1 point each team)

TCU played and beat Minnesota (whose other losses were to Illinois, Ohio State by 7 and Wisconsin by 10) as their 4th non-conference game. Baylor beat State University at Buffalo (not the Bills) whose other losses were to Army, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan and Ohio Universty (not Ohio State)...Advantage TCU. (3 points TCU)

Baylor and TCU played at Waco (at least a three point advantage and maybe a six point advantage to the home team). Baylor won by three based on a pass interference call at the end of the game. TCU's previous drive was stopped by clear pass interference that was not called. Baylor won, advantage Baylor but points to TCU (Baylor 3, TCU 1).

Final score...TCU 6, Baylor 5.

TCU lost a close game on a disputed call at Baylor. TCU played a much better non-conference schedule. In an atmosphere where many power teams play poor non-conference schedules, I can see the committee rewarding a team that plays a stronger non-conference schedule with the same result. If they reward TCU there is no "lack of credibility".

(12-07-2014 10:12 AM)Houston Owl Wrote:  Okay...I'll bite...

Both teams destroyed SMU. No advantage..(1 point each team)

Both teams played an FCS team and won big. No advantage (1 point each team)

TCU played and beat Minnesota (whose other losses were to Illinois, Ohio State by 7 and Wisconsin by 10) as their 4th non-conference game. Baylor beat State University at Buffalo (not the Bills) whose other losses were to Army, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan and Ohio Universty (not Ohio State)...Advantage TCU. (3 points TCU)

Baylor and TCU played at Waco (at least a three point advantage and maybe a six point advantage to the home team). Baylor won by three based on a pass interference call at the end of the game. TCU's previous drive was stopped by clear pass interference that was not called. Baylor won, advantage Baylor but points to TCU (Baylor 3, TCU 1).

Final score...TCU 6, Baylor 5.

TCU lost a close game on a disputed call at Baylor. TCU played a much better non-conference schedule. In an atmosphere where many power teams play poor non-conference schedules, I can see the committee rewarding a team that plays a stronger non-conference schedule with the same result. If they reward TCU there is no "lack of credibility".

??? I just love the way you give TCU 3 points (instead of 1) for OOC schedule. Yet, there is very little difference between their SoS. Personally, I don't give much weight on point differential. What matters is the wins.

(12-07-2014 10:31 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Personally, I don't give much weight on point differential. What matters is the wins.

And my point is that the committee is clearly not treating things this way up to now, regardless of your personal opinion.

That might change this week - and it might not.

Walt: Then compare the losses. TCU lost a close game to Baylor. Advantage Baylor but it's close.

Baylor lost to a 7-5 (including the big victory over Towson) West Virginia team by two tochdowns. Another clear advantage to TCU.

Your statement is that the committee loses "all credibility" if it ranks TCU higher than Baylor. Unless the sole reason for comparing two teams is head-to-head results, all other factors point to TCU.

(12-07-2014 08:35 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  And for all those poo-pooing FSU for all their narrow escapes, they had by far the best OOC schedule of any team ranked in the Top 10 (Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Florida).

I won't mkae predictions about what happens, but will ask this...Consider if FSU were left out of the championship with TCU advancing by virtue of their squirelly, ad-hoc tiebreaker. With the argument about FSU's strength of schedule, what does that say about the ACC and its future?

I'd have to believe that (1) the Big 12 would be under pressure to build towards a championship game so they don't have the stigma of giving another team an undeserved title, and (2) FSU will go batshit into full press mode to lobby the Big XII to be added along with some other ACC school. As a defending BCS winner and undefeated team with strong OOC schedule, FSU must have lost nearly all faith in the ACC at this point, and if they are denied today, then that would have to be the end for them in the ACC.

I don't see Rice getting a Big XII invite now or ever. But, the ACC is a different matter if FSU and another school do leave for the Big XII, and IMHO, they are one of the more desirable conferences from Rice's standpoint. I like the academics and basketball credentials (and Rice has a huge mountain to climb there, but being in a conference like that would be a huge boost to recruiting). I think Rice could be more competitive in football than any other major conference and it's got good baseball competition as well.

I think this question will be moot, but the underlying issues are still there, and this will probably be the next change - next year or five years down the road.