(11-23-2014 06:03 PM)ken d Wrote: (11-23-2014 12:57 PM)msm96wolf Wrote: ACC, SEC & PAC 12 appear to will be able to fill all their spots even sending multiple teams to the CFP. These conference also could even have at-large teams in the pool. The B10 will only have Heart of Dallas not filled if they send two teams to CFP. B12 will not fill Armed Forces and possibly Cactus depending on OSU vs Ok outcome. Imagine the Dallas bowl will grab a P5 at-large. Definitely, looking like there will not be many extra spots for at large G5 teams without backup bowl agreements if P5s are available..
There aren't likely to be any extra spots for G5 teams. With two weeks to go (for the Big 12 at least - one week for the others) it is still possible to have 52 of the 65 P5 teams bowl eligible. So even some P5's who are eligible could get left out this year, because every G5 conference already has at least as many teams eligible as they have primary tie-ins.
lets look-
ACC- 9 BE teams already, 1 more guaranteed(UVA/VT), 1 more possible Pitt
B12- 6 BE teams already, 1 more possible(Okla St- not likely)
B10- 9 BE teams already, 1 more guaranteed(Northwestern/Illinois), 1 more possible(Mich- not likely)
P12- 8 BE teams already, 2 more possible(Cal- vs BYU, Ore St- vs Oregon)
SEC- 11 BE teams 2 more possible(Tenn- vs Vandy, Kent- vs Louisville)
ND- 1 BE team
so right now we have 44 BE teams,2 more locks, and 7 possible. That would be 53/65 P5 teams eligible.
ACC 10 slots- 10 eligible plus 1 more possible
B12 7 slots- 6 eligible plus 1 more possible
B10 9 slots- 10 eligible plus 1 more possible
P12 7 slots- 8 eligible plus 2 more possible
SEC 10 slots- 11 eligible plus 2 more possible
ND 0 slots- 1 eligible
so P5 has a total of 43 slots. PLUS then 6 more slots from the playoffs/access bowls. So 49 slots.
now for the G5-
AAC- 5 slots- 5 eligible plus 1 more possible
CUSA- 5 slots- 6 eligible plus 1 more possible
MAC- 5 slots- 5 eligible plus 2 more possible
MWC- 6 slots- 6 eligible plus 1 more possible
SBC- 3 slots- 4 eligible
Army/Navy/BYU- 2 slots- 1 eligible 1 more possible
so G5 has 26 slots- 27 eligible plus 6 more possible. PLUS then the G5 slot would mean 27 slots.
So just looking right now- G5 spots are all full. So it's possible that there will be some P5 teams that don't go bowling. All will hinge on the access/playoff spots quite frankly. Assuming the playoffs are FSU, Alabama, Ohio St, and Oregon.......
ACC 11 slots, 10 eligible, 1 possible
B12- 7 slots, 6 eligible, 1 possible(not likely)
B10- 9 slots, 10 eligible, 1 possible(not likely)
P12- 7 slots, 8 eligible, 2 possible
SEC 11 slots, 11 eligible, 2 possible
ACC adds an extra slot because of the Orange Bowl replacement. SEC gets an extra slot for the Orange Bowl. There would then be the access bowl spots. The 4 non 1st big 12 team teams that get in would be extra slots. So say TCU, Baylor, UCLA, Georgia, and Mich St get in.
ACC 11 slots- 10 eligible plus 1 more possible
B12 8 slots- 6 eligible plus 1 more possible
B10 10 slots- 10 eligible plus 1 more possible
P12 8 slots- 8 eligible plus 2 more possible
SEC 12 slots- 11 eligible plus 2 more possible
ND 0 slots- 1 eligible
so 49 slots with 46 eligible already. Really only P5 slot definitely open would be the Big 12 last 2 slots(Armed Forces, Cactus). ACC could lose St Petersburg Bowl. Outside of that- pretty much everything is safe. If we get more than 3 of those 7 P5 teams win to get bowl eligible- it is very possible a P5 could be home for the holidays.