(11-19-2014 01:05 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-19-2014 12:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-19-2014 12:43 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  In that scenario, an 11-2 UCLA team with wins over Arizona, Arizona St, USC, and Oregon, who also did not play a 1AA team, and played 2 P5 teams OOC with a nine game schedule... If SOS is to be rewarded, and a one loss Oregon and Alabama can be ranked ahead of an unbeaten FSU, a two loss conference champion UCLA with that resume, could be ranked over one or both.

Holy Crap, I think we agree on something for the first time!

Don't get carried away. Just to spite us, UCLA will lose

(11-19-2014 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If Ole Miss beats Miss St and Auburn beats Alabama- Ole Mis would be division champion and go to the SEC title game. Win there, and they would be 11-2, with 2 top 10 wins in Alabama and Miss St. Yeah, that would get them in. Virtually impossible for the SEC to get shut out now.

Not if the East division winner beats the west in the CCG. Then no matter what happens, you have a two loss SEC champion, a two loss Alabama under any circumstances, and best case scenario a one loss Miss St who did not win their division, much less their conference, who by virtue of Alabama beating Auburn* has only one top 25 win vs. Ole Miss. I'd say the east winning would not exactly kill an SEC playoff spot, but makes it more likely than not that they may not have a spot.

*Note - Alabama has to beat Auburn, otherwise Miss St would be in the CCG and lose, and then every SEC contender would have two losses and no title save for Georgia/Mizzou who'd have a title, but 2 or even 3 losses. Alabama and Miss St winning out is the only likely scenario in which the SEC gets in, if the East team wins the CCG.

And a 2 loss Ole Miss champ might get shut out. Those 2 loss teams, with Alabama and Miss. St. losing late, could have to jump 2 out of TCU/Baylor/Ohio St. The committee said 4-7 were pretty close, so Ole Miss would have to jump into that group and above them all. While its certainly possible, I think its more likely that they don't.

(11-19-2014 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-19-2014 12:58 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I don't think Ole Miss has a prayer. You don't get two freebies in division play. They choked. They are done. Wisconsin has a neutral site loss and UCLA has two home losses. They are not gonna get in. Unless Baylor/TCU look as ugly as possible in victory, there is no chance a two loss team is going to jump them.

If Ole Miss beats Miss St and Auburn beats Alabama- Ole Mis would be division champion and go to the SEC title game. Win there, and they would be 11-2, with 2 top 10 wins in Alabama and Miss St. Yeah, that would get them in. Virtually impossible for the SEC to get shut out now.

unless Missouri wins the SEC championship game :)

(11-19-2014 02:54 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-19-2014 02:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The question will be end of the year are the resumes going to be a tie. Miss St will likely have wins over top 25 teams Ole Miss(by the scenario), Auburn, and LSU/Texas A&M. That's 3. TCU will have wins over Kansas St and Oklahoma. That's 2. Maybe Minnesota if they are lucky. Oh and Miss St would have a light years better loss than TCU does. That's not a tied resume to me looking at it.

That's because you are tied to your position, and are making projections. Case in point, WVU could just as easily be ranked as LSU or A&M, and Auburn (if they lose again) may or may not be. But besides that, one would be a conference champion, and one would not be. So no, it's not a "tied resume" based on the committee's on words. By and large, intentional or not, you are giving SEC teams credit for a teams' rank when they played, and everyone else end of year, after they have piled on losses.

Note, I agree on Ole Miss having a better resume, but they have two losses. That would be way too much to overcome to even be considered over champions with less losses. So they don't enter the conversation barring an Armageddon this weekend.

Even if WVU gets ranked- that helps Miss St. That means WVU beats Kansas St and that makes it where if KSU loses again, they could easily finish unranked. It still would be a much worse loss for TCU than what Miss St has.

And you are really kidding yourself if you think a 8-4 team like Auburn has ANY shot of finishing unranked.

(11-19-2014 02:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-19-2014 01:05 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-19-2014 12:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-19-2014 12:43 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  In that scenario, an 11-2 UCLA team with wins over Arizona, Arizona St, USC, and Oregon, who also did not play a 1AA team, and played 2 P5 teams OOC with a nine game schedule... If SOS is to be rewarded, and a one loss Oregon and Alabama can be ranked ahead of an unbeaten FSU, a two loss conference champion UCLA with that resume, could be ranked over one or both.

Holy Crap, I think we agree on something for the first time!

Don't get carried away. Just to spite us, UCLA will lose

(11-19-2014 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If Ole Miss beats Miss St and Auburn beats Alabama- Ole Mis would be division champion and go to the SEC title game. Win there, and they would be 11-2, with 2 top 10 wins in Alabama and Miss St. Yeah, that would get them in. Virtually impossible for the SEC to get shut out now.

Not if the East division winner beats the west in the CCG. Then no matter what happens, you have a two loss SEC champion, a two loss Alabama under any circumstances, and best case scenario a one loss Miss St who did not win their division, much less their conference, who by virtue of Alabama beating Auburn* has only one top 25 win vs. Ole Miss. I'd say the east winning would not exactly kill an SEC playoff spot, but makes it more likely than not that they may not have a spot.

*Note - Alabama has to beat Auburn, otherwise Miss St would be in the CCG and lose, and then every SEC contender would have two losses and no title save for Georgia/Mizzou who'd have a title, but 2 or even 3 losses. Alabama and Miss St winning out is the only likely scenario in which the SEC gets in, if the East team wins the CCG.

And a 2 loss Ole Miss champ might get shut out. Those 2 loss teams, with Alabama and Miss. St. losing late, could have to jump 2 out of TCU/Baylor/Ohio St. The committee said 4-7 were pretty close, so Ole Miss would have to jump into that group and above them all. While its certainly possible, I think its more likely that they don't.

Wins over top 4 Miss St and then Missouri(or even better Georgia)- definitely gets them in the group and then ahead of the group.

Stever, you may have just officially jumped the shark with that last one.

Ole Miss would have wins over
Alabama(10-2)
Miss St(10-2)
Texas A&M if they beat LSU(8-4)
Missouri or Georgia(10-3)

Think it would be very likely for that to be ahead of either TCU or Baylor.

(11-19-2014 01:30 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-19-2014 01:15 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(11-19-2014 11:53 AM)Wedge Wrote:  If the rumor is correct and the NCAA approves "championship game deregulation" in January, the Big 12 could choose to have a title game.

Again, I don't see why the other P5's would allow B12 to have one at 10 since they were forced to go to 12 to have one. I think the rule will stay at 12 and force the B12 to expand. P5 likes it because it brings in two more votes and teams. I still think the B12 will want a Florida and Ohio TV market. Also, help WVU when it forms divisions.

I am not sure the others will care too much about them needing to expand. As a matter of fact, playing a true round robin PLUS a championship game, all but eliminates the Big XII from ever having two teams in contention for a playoff. Sometimes it is good to have other teams in the mix to spread the losses around. I am not saying the B12 needs to expand, I am just saying I am not sure the other conferences care about that, or see it as an advantage for them.

I think the XII is wanting to be able to hold one on the fly, which might ruffle some feathers of the other P5 conferences.

Besides, I don't know what to believe regarding the proposal. It hasn't appeared on any NCAA committee agenda. The football issues committee hasn't held a meeting this year (at least not one with a published agenda). I have no idea where this proposal sits. It's kind of a mystery.

I think it was formally proposed in April, but got overtaken by the autonomy thing.
I've seen it may resurface at the Jan meetings and is expected to pass once they actually talk about it.
That's if the B12 etc still care to push it.

(11-19-2014 03:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Ole Miss would have wins over
Alabama(10-2)
Miss St(10-2)
Texas A&M if they beat LSU(8-4)
Missouri or Georgia(10-3)

Think it would be very likely for that to be ahead of either TCU or Baylor.

And losses to 8-4 or 7-5 LSU and to Auburn.
TCU will have wins over Minnesota, Kansas St., Oklahoma, WVU and a narrow loss to Baylor on the road. I don't see Ole Miss as being particularly close to TCU in that scenario, but the committee probably would. Baylor would have wins over KSU, OU and TCU with a loss at WVU. Again, Baylor looks better. Ohio St. would have wins over Michigan St. and perhaps Wisconsin and an excuse for their loss to VT (new QB).

To think Ole Miss is guaranteed is just drinking the Kool-Aid. I do think it will be close. But a loss is a loss.

(11-19-2014 05:25 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-19-2014 03:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Ole Miss would have wins over
Alabama(10-2)
Miss St(10-2)
Texas A&M if they beat LSU(8-4)
Missouri or Georgia(10-3)

Think it would be very likely for that to be ahead of either TCU or Baylor.

And losses to 8-4 or 7-5 LSU and to Auburn.
TCU will have wins over Minnesota, Kansas St., Oklahoma, WVU and a narrow loss to Baylor on the road. I don't see Ole Miss as being particularly close to TCU in that scenario, but the committee probably would. Baylor would have wins over KSU, OU and TCU with a loss at WVU. Again, Baylor looks better. Ohio St. would have wins over Michigan St. and perhaps Wisconsin and an excuse for their loss to VT (new QB).

To think Ole Miss is guaranteed is just drinking the Kool-Aid. I do think it will be close. But a loss is a loss.

But this committee has shown that a 1 loss difference is not that big.

For TCU let's break down those wins
Minnesota(still with games left vs Nebraska and Wisconsin) could easily finish 7-5
Kansas St/WVU- KSU would be 8-3 assuming a loss to Baylor/Win vs Kansas. Game left with WVU. WVU would be 7-4 assuming a win vs Iowa St. So either 2 8-4 wins(fringe top 25) or a 9-3 good win and a 7-5 non-top 25 win.
Oklahoma 9-3 if they can beat Kansas and Oklahoma St

Could easily be only 2 top 25 wins for them. Depends a lot on the Kansas St/WVU game. But quite possibly no top 10 wins. Something that Ole Miss would have 2 of. I just think a 11-2 SEC west team with 2 top 10 wins would get in over either TCU or Baylor.

Can't stress for especially TCU how huge the Kansas St/WVU game is. Actually thinking about it- for both TCU and Baylor.

Think TCU is rooting for WVU. Gives them an extra top 25 win which is huge.
Think Baylor is rooting for Kansas St. Yeah it makes their loss a bit weaker- but it also same time gives them a chance for a quality win that last day of the season.

(11-19-2014 05:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-19-2014 05:25 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-19-2014 03:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Ole Miss would have wins over
Alabama(10-2)
Miss St(10-2)
Texas A&M if they beat LSU(8-4)
Missouri or Georgia(10-3)

Think it would be very likely for that to be ahead of either TCU or Baylor.

And losses to 8-4 or 7-5 LSU and to Auburn.
TCU will have wins over Minnesota, Kansas St., Oklahoma, WVU and a narrow loss to Baylor on the road. I don't see Ole Miss as being particularly close to TCU in that scenario, but the committee probably would. Baylor would have wins over KSU, OU and TCU with a loss at WVU. Again, Baylor looks better. Ohio St. would have wins over Michigan St. and perhaps Wisconsin and an excuse for their loss to VT (new QB).

To think Ole Miss is guaranteed is just drinking the Kool-Aid. I do think it will be close. But a loss is a loss.

But this committee has shown that a 1 loss difference is not that big.

For TCU let's break down those wins
Minnesota(still with games left vs Nebraska and Wisconsin) could easily finish 7-5
Kansas St/WVU- KSU would be 8-3 assuming a loss to Baylor/Win vs Kansas. Game left with WVU. WVU would be 7-4 assuming a win vs Iowa St. So either 2 8-4 wins(fringe top 25) or a 9-3 good win and a 7-5 non-top 25 win.
Oklahoma 9-3 if they can beat Kansas and Oklahoma St

Could easily be only 2 top 25 wins for them. Depends a lot on the Kansas St/WVU game. But quite possibly no top 10 wins. Something that Ole Miss would have 2 of. I just think a 11-2 SEC west team with 2 top 10 wins would get in over either TCU or Baylor.

Can't stress for especially TCU how huge the Kansas St/WVU game is. Actually thinking about it- for both TCU and Baylor.

Think TCU is rooting for WVU. Gives them an extra top 25 win which is huge.
Think Baylor is rooting for Kansas St. Yeah it makes their loss a bit weaker- but it also same time gives them a chance for a quality win that last day of the season.

A 1 loss difference isn't that big when you haven't beaten anyone (FSU, Duke, Nebraska). Baylor and TCU have.

(11-19-2014 11:53 AM)Wedge Wrote:  If the rumor is correct and the NCAA approves "championship game deregulation" in January, the Big 12 could choose to have a title game.

Nah, they wont do it. There is no reason at all for the SEC, PAC and Big Ten to support it. They will let the talk build up. The more air you let build up in the balloon, the louder the bang when it explodes.

(11-19-2014 11:47 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  Here's an article by ESPN on the matter:

http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_/id/...pes-tumble

I think both Baylor and TCU have a great chance of getting passed up by Ohio State, and possibly even a UCLA team that wins out....

on that last weekend, TCU will host Iowa State (ho hum) and Baylor will play Kansas State....

I think not having a championship game will hurt them with the committee

I had to rep you for this prediction....