(11-09-2014 01:55 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:47 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

I do think Baylor should be above TCU but the problem is that it would mean Baylor jumping from #12 to #4 which would actually push Alabama down a position despite that win at LSU. There is no good choice.

I think they will have to settle with putting Baylor in at #8 with a four position jump. Ohio State won against a higher ranked team, TCU beat the #7 ranked team and Alabama beat LSU which was only one position behind Oklahoma.

It isn't really fair to Baylor in my opinion but they still have an uphill climb.

This isn't the polls, you dont have to "justify" moving x # of spots. It's simply rank them how you see them and BU will be within 3-4 spots at worst this week and that's close enough that by December the head to head will push us ahead

Yeah, well I disagree. So far, it does seem as if the Committee is using their ranks as a measuring stick. I get it, you are a Baylor guy and Baylor is certainly deserving of jumping ahead of TCU but the fact that they would also have to jump Alabama in order to do that means that I don't think it happens this week.

think one thing to watch will be where Auburn and Ole Miss are in relation to Nebraska. Could see the committee putting both ahead of Nebraska even with the extra loss.

(11-09-2014 01:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:50 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:40 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Mississippi State still has two road games that will be challenging. The first is at Alabama and the second is at Ole Miss.
Alabama still has Miss State and Auburn but both of those are at home. Advantage to Alabama but still not a lock for the playoff. The SEC breathed a collective sigh of relief when Alabama squeaked by tonight but the issue of everyone having two losses isn't over yet.

I do think we will see TCU at the #4 slot. People can try to attribute whatever they want to LSU but Alabama barely squeaked by the committee's #16 team and TCU emphatically won against the committee's #7 team. Why bother putting two SEC teams in the temporary top 4 when we know one of them is going to lose next week? Nah, the Committee will put TCU in as #4 and Alabama will be #5.

The Committee has created a serious problem for themselves though. The problem is Baylor/TCU.

The thing that would be real interesting would be if Miss St loses to Alabama- but then Alabama lost to Auburn. Miss St wins the division and goes to SEC title game and wins. Got to think Miss St will be in the playoff.

I do think you are right about Baylor/TCU. TCU has what could become a huge schedule advantage with Minnesota. Baylor has the head to head, and would have the conference championship. Really fascinating to see how this plays out.

What if Miss State loses to Alabama AND Ole Miss? Both are road games.

What if Auburn beats Alabama?

Then what?

That would be the real interesting part(you could add if East team wins the SEC).

Will have to see the Big Ten quite frankly as well. Ohio St and Nebraska both have HUGE games next week. Would think Wisconsin will be favored over Nebraska and Minnesota/Ohio St will be real interesting as well. Wisconsin and Minnesota both win- Big Ten is gone(and I think you would agree- no 2 loss Big Ten team would have a shot).

Yeah, I think Ohio State is really the only team with a shot and they need it all to play out properly to get in with 1 loss. If they get another loss they are done, just as MSU is now.

Minnesota was a much better athletic squad than Iowa today. I saw it and on one hand, I loved seeing how even Minnesota could put together such a squad in the Big Ten but it also showed me just how behind the times Ferentz and his coaches are.

Minnesota isn't anywhere near as talented and athletic as Ohio State though. I don't think Urban will let his guys fall into the trap. They know what is at stake. Well, at least I hope he doesn't let them look past Minnesota.

If FSU continues on, they will be in.

Hopefully we see an Oregon/Arizona State match up that sends a one loss PAC champion into the playoff.

At this point I do think the Big 12 is deserving of having a team. If Baylor or TCU makes it through without another loss then I think they got a great shot at making it.

At that point what if Ohio State gets a big win against 7-2 Minnesota next week? Indiana beat the SEC East leading Missouri Tigers so a big win over Indiana could prove valuable later on if things in the SEC go crazy. The Ohio State/Michigan game will garner a lot of attention. Michigan always plays up for Ohio State, it will be a challenge for OSU. Finally they end with Wisconsin/Nebraska whom will likely be ranked at least in the top 15 as both are in the top 25 currently.

When you look at all that, does a 2 loss SEC champion automatically get in ahead of either Ohio State or TCU/Baylor? I don't know if the Committee is willing to make that big of a statement in their first year.

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

TCU has played a better schedule and should they both win out, TCU would have the edge in "quality" wins. TCU lost to Baylor by three on the road, while Baylor lost by 14 at West Virginia, a team TCU just beat. The resumes are nearly identical, so if the two teams are competing for one playoff spot, it may come down to non-conference wins. That's a clear win for TCU due to the 30-7 win over Minnesota.
The committee may give more weight to Baylor's three point comeback win at home over TCU, but I'm thinking they would give the nod to TCU.

Know one thing for sure- FSU now has really no safety net. If they lose a game, they are in deep trouble. That ND win now no where near as impressive. Miami game could be very interesting for them- and Florida you just don't know.

For Ohio St I think they need for VT to get bowl eligible. Losing to maybe a 4-8 team would look real bad. Also really need Michigan St to win out here- to make that win as good as possible. I think if Auburn somehow got to be the 2 loss champion, that would pose the biggest problem because not only do they have 7 SEC wins, but also the Kansas St win. In the chaos scenario you mentioned, Auburn would be SEC west division champions.

(11-09-2014 02:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  think one thing to watch will be where Auburn and Ole Miss are in relation to Nebraska. Could see the committee putting both ahead of Nebraska even with the extra loss.

Nebraska didn't play so I don't think they are going to go up much. In fact I don't think they go up anymore than one spot. Notre Dame will fall below them but I definitely don't think Auburn falls below them, I don't think Kansas State falls below them. I don't think Michigan State falls below them despite having one more loss due to MSU beating them head to head.

Nebraska probably moves up to #12 and that's it. The bigger question for me is Wisconsin. They are #25 now. They definitely move above West Virginia as they drop out of the top 25. I think they may jump ahead of Utah. I don't know how far Oklahoma will drop but that was a bad loss and with their QB injured, who knows how the committee will rank them now. There is a small chance that Wisky jumps Oklahoma.

So Wisky may end up as #23 when they play #12 Nebraska. I think they are going to run all over Iowa at Iowa City and they have Minnesota at home for their last regular season game so that line up should earn them some credit at possibly getting into the top 15 by the time they play Ohio State in the Championship game.

I am betting on Wisky beating Nebraska.

(11-09-2014 02:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Know one thing for sure- FSU now has really no safety net. If they lose a game, they are in deep trouble. That ND win now no where near as impressive. Miami game could be very interesting for them- and Florida you just don't know.

For Ohio St I think they need for VT to get bowl eligible. Losing to maybe a 4-8 team would look real bad. Also really need Michigan St to win out here- to make that win as good as possible. I think if Auburn somehow got to be the 2 loss champion, that would pose the biggest problem because not only do they have 7 SEC wins, but also the Kansas St win. In the chaos scenario you mentioned, Auburn would be SEC west division champions.

Auburn still has to play Georgia too. If the Aggies are capable of beating Auburn.....

Yes, the VT loss is bad for OSU but I think I have laid out how they have a pretty good line up of games that started this week in order to prove that they are worthy of getting in. While I think there is merit in putting in a 2 loss SEC team, inevitably it depends upon what kind of precedent this Committee wants to set for future Committee's.

(11-09-2014 02:15 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

TCU has played a better schedule and should they both win out, TCU would have the edge in "quality" wins. TCU lost to Baylor by three on the road, while Baylor lost by 14 at West Virginia, a team TCU just beat. The resumes are nearly identical, so if the two teams are competing for one playoff spot, it may come down to non-conference wins. That's a clear win for TCU due to the 30-7 win over Minnesota.
The committee may give more weight to Baylor's three point comeback win at home over TCU, but I'm thinking they would give the nod to TCU.

The BIG thing for Baylor though is they would be conference champions. I think it would be incredibly hard for the committee end of the day to not award Baylor the playoff spot the 1st year quite frankly. If all the talk about conference championships means something- they have to give Baylor the spot.

(11-09-2014 01:59 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:55 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:47 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

I do think Baylor should be above TCU but the problem is that it would mean Baylor jumping from #12 to #4 which would actually push Alabama down a position despite that win at LSU. There is no good choice.

I think they will have to settle with putting Baylor in at #8 with a four position jump. Ohio State won against a higher ranked team, TCU beat the #7 ranked team and Alabama beat LSU which was only one position behind Oklahoma.

It isn't really fair to Baylor in my opinion but they still have an uphill climb.

This isn't the polls, you dont have to "justify" moving x # of spots. It's simply rank them how you see them and BU will be within 3-4 spots at worst this week and that's close enough that by December the head to head will push us ahead

Yeah, well I disagree. So far, it does seem as if the Committee is using their ranks as a measuring stick. I get it, you are a Baylor guy and Baylor is certainly deserving of jumping ahead of TCU but the fact that they would also have to jump Alabama in order to do that means that I don't think it happens this week.

If I'm on the committee here is how I look at the 1 loss contenders.
Alabama's wins against top opponents: Better than average/ Loss: Ole Miss, (T20)
Oregon's wins against top opponents: Better than average/ Loss: Arizona, (T20)
T.C.U.'s wins against top opponents: Better than average/ Loss: Baylor, (T15)
Baylor's wins against top opponents: Average /Loss: West Virginia, Fly in the Punch bowl
Nebraska's wins against top opponents: Lower than Average/ Loss: Mich St., (T15)
Ohio State's wins against top opponents: Lower than Average/ Loss: Va Tech, Pooh on the Living Room Carpet

How will the committee rank them? Alabama will be in the top four. Why? Because Mississippi State's game next week gets hyped and if State wins they are out the following week. If Alabama wins they want to keep the demographic viable.
1. Mississippi State 2. Florida State 3. Oregon 4. Alabama 5. T.C.U. 6. Baylor: Ohio State moves up but probably to #8 or 9.

How would I rank them: 1. Mississippi State 2. Florida State 3. T.C.U. 4. Alabama 5. Oregon 6. Baylor 7. Arizona State 8. Ohio State

(11-09-2014 02:15 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

TCU has played a better schedule and should they both win out, TCU would have the edge in "quality" wins. TCU lost to Baylor by three on the road, while Baylor lost by 14 at West Virginia, a team TCU just beat. The resumes are nearly identical, so if the two teams are competing for one playoff spot, it may come down to non-conference wins. That's a clear win for TCU due to the 30-7 win over Minnesota.
The committee may give more weight to Baylor's three point comeback win at home over TCU, but I'm thinking they would give the nod to TCU.

Hard to say. Minnesota's remaining games are Ohio St., at Nebraska, and at Wisconsin. The Gophers might finish 7-5, and TCU's win over them might not be much of a point in their favor. Both TCU and Baylor played an FCS team and SMU, so the only schedule difference is TCU/Minnesota vs. Baylor/Buffalo. If Minnesota is 7-5, is a win over a 7-win Big Ten team worth so much more than a win over a 3-win MAC team that it trumps Baylor's head-to-head win?

OTOH if the Gophers win their division, TCU's W looks pretty good, and they might have a greater chance of overcoming Baylor's head-to-head edge in the eyes of the committee.

(11-09-2014 02:23 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  think one thing to watch will be where Auburn and Ole Miss are in relation to Nebraska. Could see the committee putting both ahead of Nebraska even with the extra loss.

Nebraska didn't play so I don't think they are going to go up much. In fact I don't think they go up anymore than one spot. Notre Dame will fall below them but I definitely don't think Auburn falls below them, I don't think Kansas State falls below them. I don't think Michigan State falls below them despite having one more loss due to MSU beating them head to head.

Nebraska probably moves up to #12 and that's it. The bigger question for me is Wisconsin. They are #25 now. They definitely move above West Virginia as they drop out of the top 25. I think they may jump ahead of Utah. I don't know how far Oklahoma will drop but that was a bad loss and with their QB injured, who knows how the committee will rank them now. There is a small chance that Wisky jumps Oklahoma.

So Wisky may end up as #23 when they play #12 Nebraska. I think they are going to run all over Iowa at Iowa City and they have Minnesota at home for their last regular season game so that line up should earn them some credit at possibly getting into the top 15 by the time they play Ohio State in the Championship game.

I am betting on Wisky beating Nebraska.

I don't think Nebraska moves at all. ND falls below them but Ohio St moves ahead of them.

What will be interesting when looking at Wisconsin, I was thinking who will join the poll. Have got to think Minnesota will replace WVU. Could see the committee putting Minnesota ahead of Wisconsin quite frankly with today's performance...

(11-09-2014 02:28 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:15 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

TCU has played a better schedule and should they both win out, TCU would have the edge in "quality" wins. TCU lost to Baylor by three on the road, while Baylor lost by 14 at West Virginia, a team TCU just beat. The resumes are nearly identical, so if the two teams are competing for one playoff spot, it may come down to non-conference wins. That's a clear win for TCU due to the 30-7 win over Minnesota.
The committee may give more weight to Baylor's three point comeback win at home over TCU, but I'm thinking they would give the nod to TCU.

Hard to say. Minnesota's remaining games are Ohio St., at Nebraska, and at Wisconsin. The Gophers might finish 7-5, and TCU's win over them might not be much of a point in their favor. Both TCU and Baylor played an FCS team and SMU, so the only schedule difference is TCU/Minnesota vs. Baylor/Buffalo. If Minnesota is 7-5, is a win over a 7-win Big Ten team worth so much more than a win over a 3-win MAC team that it trumps Baylor's head-to-head win?

OTOH if the Gophers win their division, TCU's W looks pretty good, and they might have a greater chance of overcoming Baylor's head-to-head edge in the eyes of the committee.

Oddly Wedge I think T.C.U. jumps them now. The game was very very close with Baylor. And the odd part is Baylor is a better loss for T.C.U. than West Virginia is for Baylor. Plus T.C.U. has the worst of their schedule behind them. So Baylor's chance of moving back ahead of them is in how the Bears finish.

If Baylor beats Oklahoma State and Kansas State they could make the jump, but right now if T.C.U. wins out and destroys the Horns who beat WVU who beat Baylor it could be justified to keep the Frogs ahead of the Bears.

(11-09-2014 02:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:23 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  think one thing to watch will be where Auburn and Ole Miss are in relation to Nebraska. Could see the committee putting both ahead of Nebraska even with the extra loss.

Nebraska didn't play so I don't think they are going to go up much. In fact I don't think they go up anymore than one spot. Notre Dame will fall below them but I definitely don't think Auburn falls below them, I don't think Kansas State falls below them. I don't think Michigan State falls below them despite having one more loss due to MSU beating them head to head.

Nebraska probably moves up to #12 and that's it. The bigger question for me is Wisconsin. They are #25 now. They definitely move above West Virginia as they drop out of the top 25. I think they may jump ahead of Utah. I don't know how far Oklahoma will drop but that was a bad loss and with their QB injured, who knows how the committee will rank them now. There is a small chance that Wisky jumps Oklahoma.

So Wisky may end up as #23 when they play #12 Nebraska. I think they are going to run all over Iowa at Iowa City and they have Minnesota at home for their last regular season game so that line up should earn them some credit at possibly getting into the top 15 by the time they play Ohio State in the Championship game.

I am betting on Wisky beating Nebraska.

I don't think Nebraska moves at all. ND falls below them but Ohio St moves ahead of them.

What will be interesting when looking at Wisconsin, I was thinking who will join the poll. Have got to think Minnesota will replace WVU. Could see the committee putting Minnesota ahead of Wisconsin quite frankly with today's performance...

Of course I would love to see Minnesota get in but I am not sure they get the nod over Missouri. I don't think Minnesota looks better than Wisconsin and they don't really have anything on their resume to show that they are better. I don't see any reason why Minnesota should jump ahead of Wisconsin. The point differential between the two wins today had more to do with just how badly Iowa played. I was pretty disgusted with the Hawks when it became evident that they had truly given up before the game was over.

I didn't factor in the Ohio State move with my Nebraska analysis, you are right. They likely don't move.

just saw a projection from Jerry Palm from CBS. not the most accurate at times- but man does he set up a scenario...
1 Florida St vs 4 Baylor
2 Alabama vs 3 Oregon(if Alabama wins out this makes sense)

in the Cotton Bowl he has TCU vs Ohio St in what would be a 5 vs 6 game at 1pm on New Year's Day. Talk about a delicious appetizer.

(11-09-2014 02:43 AM)stever20 Wrote:  just saw a projection from Jerry Palm from CBS. not the most accurate at times- but man does he set up a scenario...
1 Florida St vs 4 Baylor
2 Alabama vs 3 Oregon(if Alabama wins out this makes sense)

in the Cotton Bowl he has TCU vs Ohio St in what would be a 5 vs 6 game at 1pm on New Year's Day. Talk about a delicious appetizer.

If all those teams win out then that is likely how they end up ranked. That Baylor choice could end up being TCU instead. My eyeball test still tells me that TCU is the more dynamic team and is more of a challenge to the likes of an Alabama or FSU. We will see how FSU looks in the ACC championship game but for now I wouldn't bet on them to beat either Baylor or TCU.

Also, I expect ASU to beat Arizona. When that happens, folks will have to realize that the Championship game isn't a gimmie for Oregon. If it comes down to the two teams going at it with one loss each, I actually feel that Arizona State will have the edge. Don't put it past Graham to pull a sneak attack on Oregon and play both of his quarterbacks at different points in that game in order to keep Oregon's defense off balance.

(11-09-2014 02:37 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:28 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:15 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

TCU has played a better schedule and should they both win out, TCU would have the edge in "quality" wins. TCU lost to Baylor by three on the road, while Baylor lost by 14 at West Virginia, a team TCU just beat. The resumes are nearly identical, so if the two teams are competing for one playoff spot, it may come down to non-conference wins. That's a clear win for TCU due to the 30-7 win over Minnesota.
The committee may give more weight to Baylor's three point comeback win at home over TCU, but I'm thinking they would give the nod to TCU.

Hard to say. Minnesota's remaining games are Ohio St., at Nebraska, and at Wisconsin. The Gophers might finish 7-5, and TCU's win over them might not be much of a point in their favor. Both TCU and Baylor played an FCS team and SMU, so the only schedule difference is TCU/Minnesota vs. Baylor/Buffalo. If Minnesota is 7-5, is a win over a 7-win Big Ten team worth so much more than a win over a 3-win MAC team that it trumps Baylor's head-to-head win?

OTOH if the Gophers win their division, TCU's W looks pretty good, and they might have a greater chance of overcoming Baylor's head-to-head edge in the eyes of the committee.

Oddly Wedge I think T.C.U. jumps them now. The game was very very close with Baylor. And the odd part is Baylor is a better loss for T.C.U. than West Virginia is for Baylor. Plus T.C.U. has the worst of their schedule behind them. So Baylor's chance of moving back ahead of them is in how the Bears finish.

If Baylor beats Oklahoma State and Kansas State they could make the jump, but right now if T.C.U. wins out and destroys the Horns who beat WVU who beat Baylor it could be justified to keep the Frogs ahead of the Bears.

Maybe so. Or, you could flip that around and look at quality wins, assuming that both finish 11-1 and guessing at the finish of other teams, and assuming a win is only "quality" if the team you beat wins at least 8 games this season:

Baylor quality wins: TCU (11-1), KSU (9-3), maybe OU if they finish 9-3 or 8-4, but doesn't matter because TCU also has a win over OU.

TCU quality wins: KSU, again maybe OU, and Minnesota if the Gophers win at least 8 games. Not counting WVU as a quality win because I'm assuming they lose to KSU and finish 7-5 at best.

Edge to Baylor on quality wins as well as head-to-head. Even bigger edge if Minnesota finishes 7-5.

(11-09-2014 02:38 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:23 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  think one thing to watch will be where Auburn and Ole Miss are in relation to Nebraska. Could see the committee putting both ahead of Nebraska even with the extra loss.

Nebraska didn't play so I don't think they are going to go up much. In fact I don't think they go up anymore than one spot. Notre Dame will fall below them but I definitely don't think Auburn falls below them, I don't think Kansas State falls below them. I don't think Michigan State falls below them despite having one more loss due to MSU beating them head to head.

Nebraska probably moves up to #12 and that's it. The bigger question for me is Wisconsin. They are #25 now. They definitely move above West Virginia as they drop out of the top 25. I think they may jump ahead of Utah. I don't know how far Oklahoma will drop but that was a bad loss and with their QB injured, who knows how the committee will rank them now. There is a small chance that Wisky jumps Oklahoma.

So Wisky may end up as #23 when they play #12 Nebraska. I think they are going to run all over Iowa at Iowa City and they have Minnesota at home for their last regular season game so that line up should earn them some credit at possibly getting into the top 15 by the time they play Ohio State in the Championship game.

I am betting on Wisky beating Nebraska.

I don't think Nebraska moves at all. ND falls below them but Ohio St moves ahead of them.

What will be interesting when looking at Wisconsin, I was thinking who will join the poll. Have got to think Minnesota will replace WVU. Could see the committee putting Minnesota ahead of Wisconsin quite frankly with today's performance...

Of course I would love to see Minnesota get in but I am not sure they get the nod over Missouri. I don't think Minnesota looks better than Wisconsin and they don't really have anything on their resume to show that they are better. I don't see any reason why Minnesota should jump ahead of Wisconsin. The point differential between the two wins today had more to do with just how badly Iowa played. I was pretty disgusted with the Hawks when it became evident that they had truly given up before the game was over.

I didn't factor in the Ohio State move with my Nebraska analysis, you are right. They likely don't move.

Neither team has much to write home about...
Minnesota- losses to TCU, Illinois
Wisconsin- losses to LSU, Northwestern
TCU better than LSU, Illinois/Northwestern right about the same

wins in conference
Minnesota- Michigan, Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa
Wisconsin- Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue

I'd take Michigan and Iowa over Maryland and Rutgers(Northwestern/Illinois cancelling out).

So yeah could easily see the committee putting Minnesota ahead of Wisconsin this weekend. Missouri is right about the same as both of them quite frankly looking at their schedule.

(11-09-2014 02:50 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:38 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:23 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:02 AM)stever20 Wrote:  think one thing to watch will be where Auburn and Ole Miss are in relation to Nebraska. Could see the committee putting both ahead of Nebraska even with the extra loss.

Nebraska didn't play so I don't think they are going to go up much. In fact I don't think they go up anymore than one spot. Notre Dame will fall below them but I definitely don't think Auburn falls below them, I don't think Kansas State falls below them. I don't think Michigan State falls below them despite having one more loss due to MSU beating them head to head.

Nebraska probably moves up to #12 and that's it. The bigger question for me is Wisconsin. They are #25 now. They definitely move above West Virginia as they drop out of the top 25. I think they may jump ahead of Utah. I don't know how far Oklahoma will drop but that was a bad loss and with their QB injured, who knows how the committee will rank them now. There is a small chance that Wisky jumps Oklahoma.

So Wisky may end up as #23 when they play #12 Nebraska. I think they are going to run all over Iowa at Iowa City and they have Minnesota at home for their last regular season game so that line up should earn them some credit at possibly getting into the top 15 by the time they play Ohio State in the Championship game.

I am betting on Wisky beating Nebraska.

I don't think Nebraska moves at all. ND falls below them but Ohio St moves ahead of them.

What will be interesting when looking at Wisconsin, I was thinking who will join the poll. Have got to think Minnesota will replace WVU. Could see the committee putting Minnesota ahead of Wisconsin quite frankly with today's performance...

Of course I would love to see Minnesota get in but I am not sure they get the nod over Missouri. I don't think Minnesota looks better than Wisconsin and they don't really have anything on their resume to show that they are better. I don't see any reason why Minnesota should jump ahead of Wisconsin. The point differential between the two wins today had more to do with just how badly Iowa played. I was pretty disgusted with the Hawks when it became evident that they had truly given up before the game was over.

I didn't factor in the Ohio State move with my Nebraska analysis, you are right. They likely don't move.

Neither team has much to write home about...
Minnesota- losses to TCU, Illinois
Wisconsin- losses to LSU, Northwestern
TCU better than LSU, Illinois/Northwestern right about the same

wins in conference
Minnesota- Michigan, Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa
Wisconsin- Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue

I'd take Michigan and Iowa over Maryland and Rutgers(Northwestern/Illinois cancelling out).

So yeah could easily see the committee putting Minnesota ahead of Wisconsin this weekend. Missouri is right about the same as both of them quite frankly looking at their schedule.

Yes, I agree with all that but since it's a wash I just cant see the Committee giving Minnesota a jump over Wisconsin. There is no need to make that kind of a statement. Just putting Minnesota at #25 would be a big deal. There is no need to "punish" Wisconsin.

(11-09-2014 02:47 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:43 AM)stever20 Wrote:  just saw a projection from Jerry Palm from CBS. not the most accurate at times- but man does he set up a scenario...
1 Florida St vs 4 Baylor
2 Alabama vs 3 Oregon(if Alabama wins out this makes sense)

in the Cotton Bowl he has TCU vs Ohio St in what would be a 5 vs 6 game at 1pm on New Year's Day. Talk about a delicious appetizer.

If all those teams win out then that is likely how they end up ranked. That Baylor choice could end up being TCU instead. My eyeball test still tells me that TCU is the more dynamic team and is more of a challenge to the likes of an Alabama or FSU. We will see how FSU looks in the ACC championship game but for now I wouldn't bet on them to beat either Baylor or TCU.

Also, I expect ASU to beat Arizona. When that happens, folks will have to realize that the Championship game isn't a gimmie for Oregon. If it comes down to the two teams going at it with one loss each, I actually feel that Arizona State will have the edge. Don't put it past Graham to pull a sneak attack on Oregon and play both of his quarterbacks at different points in that game in order to keep Oregon's defense off balance.

Yeah I really am not sold on FSU either. They just aren't the same team as last year at all. Not even close. Just think they'll be like Auburn- finally those 9 lives run out and Karma gets them.

Wouldn't be shocked if ASU beats Oregon at all. Only thing is wouldn't be shocked if Oregon drops a stunner here in the next few weeks. Injuries really starting to pile up for them.

(11-09-2014 02:53 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:50 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:38 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:23 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Nebraska didn't play so I don't think they are going to go up much. In fact I don't think they go up anymore than one spot. Notre Dame will fall below them but I definitely don't think Auburn falls below them, I don't think Kansas State falls below them. I don't think Michigan State falls below them despite having one more loss due to MSU beating them head to head.

Nebraska probably moves up to #12 and that's it. The bigger question for me is Wisconsin. They are #25 now. They definitely move above West Virginia as they drop out of the top 25. I think they may jump ahead of Utah. I don't know how far Oklahoma will drop but that was a bad loss and with their QB injured, who knows how the committee will rank them now. There is a small chance that Wisky jumps Oklahoma.

So Wisky may end up as #23 when they play #12 Nebraska. I think they are going to run all over Iowa at Iowa City and they have Minnesota at home for their last regular season game so that line up should earn them some credit at possibly getting into the top 15 by the time they play Ohio State in the Championship game.

I am betting on Wisky beating Nebraska.

I don't think Nebraska moves at all. ND falls below them but Ohio St moves ahead of them.

What will be interesting when looking at Wisconsin, I was thinking who will join the poll. Have got to think Minnesota will replace WVU. Could see the committee putting Minnesota ahead of Wisconsin quite frankly with today's performance...

Of course I would love to see Minnesota get in but I am not sure they get the nod over Missouri. I don't think Minnesota looks better than Wisconsin and they don't really have anything on their resume to show that they are better. I don't see any reason why Minnesota should jump ahead of Wisconsin. The point differential between the two wins today had more to do with just how badly Iowa played. I was pretty disgusted with the Hawks when it became evident that they had truly given up before the game was over.

I didn't factor in the Ohio State move with my Nebraska analysis, you are right. They likely don't move.

Neither team has much to write home about...
Minnesota- losses to TCU, Illinois
Wisconsin- losses to LSU, Northwestern
TCU better than LSU, Illinois/Northwestern right about the same

wins in conference
Minnesota- Michigan, Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa
Wisconsin- Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue

I'd take Michigan and Iowa over Maryland and Rutgers(Northwestern/Illinois cancelling out).

So yeah could easily see the committee putting Minnesota ahead of Wisconsin this weekend. Missouri is right about the same as both of them quite frankly looking at their schedule.

Yes, I agree with all that but since it's a wash I just cant see the Committee giving Minnesota a jump over Wisconsin. There is no need to make that kind of a statement. Just putting Minnesota at #25 would be a big deal. There is no need to "punish" Wisconsin.

Don't think the committee views it as making a statement. Each week is a new poll. Now maybe they get lazy last few teams and leave Wisconsin over Minnesota- but after today's game- that could change some minds.