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Bowl Analysis - Week 9
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BlueRaiderBoy Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
(10-27-2014 06:28 PM)MTowho Wrote:  Best case scenario for CUSA at this point, based on geography, getting the most teams in, not playing in your own home stadium, and maximizing our chances of winning vs. P5, is:

Marshall gets Access bowl, presumably Peach.
La Tech to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
Rice to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
MT to Birmingham to face AAC
UTEP to New Mexico to face MWC
UAB to Boca Raton to face MAC
FAU to Bahamas to face MAC
WKU to Hawaii to face MWC

That's 8 teams in, assuming we even have that many. This isn't outside the realm of possibility at all as far as the bowls available to us. Of course, you could interchange any of MT/WKU/UAB/FAU in this scenario. The Western division is a little easier to place based on proximity. The scenario I have above would only really inconvenience WKU as far as travel, but they would likely be one of the last teams in anyway. All this would take is Marshall getting the access bowl and two out of Arkansas/Tennessee/Florida not becoming eligible, and for the rest of the conferences to do what we generally expect as far as extra teams.

Pretty sure The Who is "EIGHT MILES HIGH" with that Eight Team Bowl Projection! I would be happy if we just get 6 teams in and think it is sadly more realistic that we get only 5. What the Heck, keep dreamin BIG, my friend!01-ncaabbs
10-27-2014 11:11 PM
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BamaScorpio69 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
(10-27-2014 11:11 PM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote:  
(10-27-2014 06:28 PM)MTowho Wrote:  Best case scenario for CUSA at this point, based on geography, getting the most teams in, not playing in your own home stadium, and maximizing our chances of winning vs. P5, is:

Marshall gets Access bowl, presumably Peach.
La Tech to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
Rice to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
MT to Birmingham to face AAC
UTEP to New Mexico to face MWC
UAB to Boca Raton to face MAC
FAU to Bahamas to face MAC
WKU to Hawaii to face MWC

That's 8 teams in, assuming we even have that many. This isn't outside the realm of possibility at all as far as the bowls available to us. Of course, you could interchange any of MT/WKU/UAB/FAU in this scenario. The Western division is a little easier to place based on proximity. The scenario I have above would only really inconvenience WKU as far as travel, but they would likely be one of the last teams in anyway. All this would take is Marshall getting the access bowl and two out of Arkansas/Tennessee/Florida not becoming eligible, and for the rest of the conferences to do what we generally expect as far as extra teams.

Pretty sure The Who is "EIGHT MILES HIGH" with that Eight Team Bowl Projection! I would be happy if we just get 6 teams in and think it is sadly more realistic that we get only 5. What the Heck, keep dreamin BIG, my friend!01-ncaabbs

We'll definitely get six teams. Seven would be a stretch. No way for eight IMO.
10-27-2014 11:15 PM
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goliath74 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
I think UF has a real chance to go bowling. They should beat Vandy, and E. Kentucky. South Carolina is having a down year, so, at the Swamp, Florida could pick them off too.

I have asked this question before - if FAU is bowl-eligible (less than 50% chance), why wouldn't anyone consider them for the Boca Raton bowl? I see some people slotting us elsewhere but WHY? Florida Atlantic IS in Boca Raton.
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2014 07:57 AM by goliath74.)
10-28-2014 07:56 AM
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MTowho Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
(10-27-2014 11:11 PM)BlueRaiderBoy Wrote:  
(10-27-2014 06:28 PM)MTowho Wrote:  Best case scenario for CUSA at this point, based on geography, getting the most teams in, not playing in your own home stadium, and maximizing our chances of winning vs. P5, is:

Marshall gets Access bowl, presumably Peach.
La Tech to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
Rice to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
MT to Birmingham to face AAC
UTEP to New Mexico to face MWC
UAB to Boca Raton to face MAC
FAU to Bahamas to face MAC
WKU to Hawaii to face MWC

That's 8 teams in, assuming we even have that many. This isn't outside the realm of possibility at all as far as the bowls available to us. Of course, you could interchange any of MT/WKU/UAB/FAU in this scenario. The Western division is a little easier to place based on proximity. The scenario I have above would only really inconvenience WKU as far as travel, but they would likely be one of the last teams in anyway. All this would take is Marshall getting the access bowl and two out of Arkansas/Tennessee/Florida not becoming eligible, and for the rest of the conferences to do what we generally expect as far as extra teams.

Pretty sure The Who is "EIGHT MILES HIGH" with that Eight Team Bowl Projection! I would be happy if we just get 6 teams in and think it is sadly more realistic that we get only 5. What the Heck, keep dreamin BIG, my friend!01-ncaabbs

Did I not say "Best Case Scenario"? We will definitely have 6, and there will be 6 slots for those teams.
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2014 08:18 AM by MTowho.)
10-28-2014 08:18 AM
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pilot172000 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
I see a legitmate scenario where we only fill 5. I would like to see 3 on each side of the conference fill up our slots and a wild card somewhere to find a spot previously mentioned. If we don't have six, The Indy Bowl would be out of contention since it is a secondary agreement. That would hurt tremendously for us. We would travel very well to most bowls in the Central time zone, but would struggle outside of the central time zone.
10-28-2014 08:26 AM
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WKUFan518 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
(10-27-2014 06:44 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  Arkansas (4-4) @ #1 Miss St, #16 LSU, #7 Ole Miss, @ Mizzou = No chance in hell of making a bowl game this year.
Tennessee (3-5) @ S. Carolina, UK, Mizzou, @ Vandy = No chance in hell of making a bowl game this year.
Florida (3-3) #9 Georgia (NF), @ Vandy, S. Carolina, E. Kentucky, @ FSU = 5% chance of making a bowl game this year.

Well Marshall it's all on you.....lol

I don't know I think Tenn. for sure and maybe Florida could get to 6 wins, happens every season last week 2 or 3 SEC teams sneak in and get to 6 wins..Agree about Arkansas, that is a killer schedule......Trust me the last 3 seasons I have really paid attention to this due to the fact WKU usually needed a lot of help to get to a bowl game with no tie ins from SB...Almost always most P5 teams get to the 6 wins they need to be bowl eligible....
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2014 01:18 PM by WKUFan518.)
10-28-2014 01:16 PM
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BamaScorpio69 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
(10-28-2014 01:16 PM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  
(10-27-2014 06:44 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  Arkansas (4-4) @ #1 Miss St, #16 LSU, #7 Ole Miss, @ Mizzou = No chance in hell of making a bowl game this year.
Tennessee (3-5) @ S. Carolina, UK, Mizzou, @ Vandy = No chance in hell of making a bowl game this year.
Florida (3-3) #9 Georgia (NF), @ Vandy, S. Carolina, E. Kentucky, @ FSU = 5% chance of making a bowl game this year.

Well Marshall it's all on you.....lol

I don't know I think Tenn. for sure and maybe Florida could get to 6 wins, happens every season last week 2 or 3 SEC teams sneak in and get to 6 wins..Agree about Arkansas, that is a killer schedule......Trust me the last 3 seasons I have really paid attention to this due to the fact WKU usually needed a lot of help to get to a bowl game with no tie ins from SB...Almost always most P5 teams get to the 6 wins they need to be bowl eligible....

I would wager you on UT. They're not going to win 3 of those 4 games. Florida ain't gonna beat Georgia or FSU.
10-28-2014 02:22 PM
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Post: #48
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
(10-27-2014 06:28 PM)MTowho Wrote:  Best case scenario for CUSA at this point, based on geography, getting the most teams in, not playing in your own home stadium, and maximizing our chances of winning vs. P5, is:

Marshall gets Access bowl, presumably Peach.
La Tech to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
Rice to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
MT to Birmingham to face AAC
UTEP to New Mexico to face MWC
UAB to Boca Raton to face MAC
FAU to Bahamas to face MAC
WKU to Hawaii to face MWC

That's 8 teams in, assuming we even have that many. This isn't outside the realm of possibility at all as far as the bowls available to us. Of course, you could interchange any of MT/WKU/UAB/FAU in this scenario. The Western division is a little easier to place based on proximity. The scenario I have above would only really inconvenience WKU as far as travel, but they would likely be one of the last teams in anyway. All this would take is Marshall getting the access bowl and two out of Arkansas/Tennessee/Florida not becoming eligible, and for the rest of the conferences to do what we generally expect as far as extra teams.

SEC should have no issue filling it's bowls...looks like they will have 9, maybe 10 bowl eligible teams.
10-28-2014 02:29 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
The sad part of this is, I wish it was the ACC that came up short so we could play one of these lower level SEC teams in Shreveport. I would be fired up as anybody to see Tech play Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech or Boston College, but to get to play Tennessee, Florida or South Carolina would be amazing!! I'm sure we all have that short list of college programs that we all want to face in a bowl game one day, Florida is one of mine.
10-28-2014 02:32 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
(10-28-2014 02:29 PM)UofMemphis Wrote:  
(10-27-2014 06:28 PM)MTowho Wrote:  Best case scenario for CUSA at this point, based on geography, getting the most teams in, not playing in your own home stadium, and maximizing our chances of winning vs. P5, is:

Marshall gets Access bowl, presumably Peach.
La Tech to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
Rice to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
MT to Birmingham to face AAC
UTEP to New Mexico to face MWC
UAB to Boca Raton to face MAC
FAU to Bahamas to face MAC
WKU to Hawaii to face MWC

That's 8 teams in, assuming we even have that many. This isn't outside the realm of possibility at all as far as the bowls available to us. Of course, you could interchange any of MT/WKU/UAB/FAU in this scenario. The Western division is a little easier to place based on proximity. The scenario I have above would only really inconvenience WKU as far as travel, but they would likely be one of the last teams in anyway. All this would take is Marshall getting the access bowl and two out of Arkansas/Tennessee/Florida not becoming eligible, and for the rest of the conferences to do what we generally expect as far as extra teams.

SEC should have no issue filling it's bowls...looks like they will have 9, maybe 10 bowl eligible teams.

Lets assume they put 2 in the play-off and 2 in the Access Bowls. That leaves 6 teams to fill:
Citrus
Liberty
Music City
Gator
Independance
Texas
Belk,
Outback
Taxslayer


Thats 6/7 teams for 9 bowls. Birmingham, Independance and another could be out in the wind with the SEC. The problem then is if we are gonna have enough to fill our bowl obligations and then pick up IMHO some of the choice bowls the SEC has. I also see a nightmare scenario where we are short a team and locked into the bowl's we already have. The MAC and Sunbelt isn't and are given oppurtunities to play in better SEC bowls agains P5 schools. That would suck.
Also I think it would be an excellent consolation prize for Marshall if they don't get an access bowl bid but do get a shot at a P5 school at the Music City Bowl.
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2014 02:51 PM by pilot172000.)
10-28-2014 02:39 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
(10-28-2014 02:39 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 02:29 PM)UofMemphis Wrote:  
(10-27-2014 06:28 PM)MTowho Wrote:  Best case scenario for CUSA at this point, based on geography, getting the most teams in, not playing in your own home stadium, and maximizing our chances of winning vs. P5, is:

Marshall gets Access bowl, presumably Peach.
La Tech to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
Rice to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
MT to Birmingham to face AAC
UTEP to New Mexico to face MWC
UAB to Boca Raton to face MAC
FAU to Bahamas to face MAC
WKU to Hawaii to face MWC

That's 8 teams in, assuming we even have that many. This isn't outside the realm of possibility at all as far as the bowls available to us. Of course, you could interchange any of MT/WKU/UAB/FAU in this scenario. The Western division is a little easier to place based on proximity. The scenario I have above would only really inconvenience WKU as far as travel, but they would likely be one of the last teams in anyway. All this would take is Marshall getting the access bowl and two out of Arkansas/Tennessee/Florida not becoming eligible, and for the rest of the conferences to do what we generally expect as far as extra teams.

SEC should have no issue filling it's bowls...looks like they will have 9, maybe 10 bowl eligible teams.

Lets assume they put 2 in the play-off and 2 in the Access Bowls. That leaves 6 teams to fill:
Citrus
Liberty
Music City
Gator
Independance
Texas
Belk,
Outback
Taxslayer


Thats 6/7 teams for 9 bowls. Birmingham, Independance and another could be out in the wind with the SEC. The problem then is if we are gonna have enough to fill our bowl obligations and then pick up IMHO some of the choice bowls the SEC has. I also see a nightmare scenario where we are short a team and locked into the bowl's we already have. The MAC and Sunbelt isn't and are given oppurtunities to play in better SEC bowls agains P5 schools. That would suck.

Again, its the details that matter. Nobody really knows anything about these backup agreements---especially the Indy Bowl backup deal that looks like it could be really complicated. I'll give you an example I picked up in a recent interview Aresco did a couple of months ago. Appararently---the AAC's Liberty Bowl backup slot allows us to send our #1 or #2 to the Liberty without filing all our other slots. That had not come out in a single interview or article prior to that time. After revealing that point, he moved on saying I don't want to get to far off into this "inside baseball" type stuff---I wished he would have stayed there as the media isn't going to dig very far into this stuff (as is obvious at the end of every season the reporters are often clueless about the intricate ties between bowls and conferences---heck half the bowl prediction pages have the wrong conferences linked to certain bowls). My point is, there could be some similar deals hiding in the CUSA bowl agreements where CUSA teams can jump into some of these better bowl slots that might open up.
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2014 02:54 PM by Attackcoog.)
10-28-2014 02:48 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
(10-28-2014 02:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 02:39 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 02:29 PM)UofMemphis Wrote:  
(10-27-2014 06:28 PM)MTowho Wrote:  Best case scenario for CUSA at this point, based on geography, getting the most teams in, not playing in your own home stadium, and maximizing our chances of winning vs. P5, is:

Marshall gets Access bowl, presumably Peach.
La Tech to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
Rice to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
MT to Birmingham to face AAC
UTEP to New Mexico to face MWC
UAB to Boca Raton to face MAC
FAU to Bahamas to face MAC
WKU to Hawaii to face MWC

That's 8 teams in, assuming we even have that many. This isn't outside the realm of possibility at all as far as the bowls available to us. Of course, you could interchange any of MT/WKU/UAB/FAU in this scenario. The Western division is a little easier to place based on proximity. The scenario I have above would only really inconvenience WKU as far as travel, but they would likely be one of the last teams in anyway. All this would take is Marshall getting the access bowl and two out of Arkansas/Tennessee/Florida not becoming eligible, and for the rest of the conferences to do what we generally expect as far as extra teams.

SEC should have no issue filling it's bowls...looks like they will have 9, maybe 10 bowl eligible teams.

Lets assume they put 2 in the play-off and 2 in the Access Bowls. That leaves 6 teams to fill:
Citrus
Liberty
Music City
Gator
Independance
Texas
Belk,
Outback
Taxslayer


Thats 6/7 teams for 9 bowls. Birmingham, Independance and another could be out in the wind with the SEC. The problem then is if we are gonna have enough to fill our bowl obligations and then pick up IMHO some of the choice bowls the SEC has. I also see a nightmare scenario where we are short a team and locked into the bowl's we already have. The MAC and Sunbelt isn't and are given oppurtunities to play in better SEC bowls agains P5 schools. That would suck.

Again, its the details that matter. Nobody really knows anything about these backup agreements---especially the Indy Bowl backup deal that looks like it could be really complicated. I'll give you an example I picked up in a recent interview Aresco did a couple of months ago. Appararently---the AAC's Liberty Bowl backup slot allows us to send our #1 or #2 to the Liberty without filing all our other slots. That had not come out in a single interview or article prior to that time. After revealing that point, he moved on saying I don't want to get to far off into this "inside baseball" type stuff---I wished he would have stayed there as the media isn't going to dig very far into this stuff (as is obvious at the end of every season the reporters are often clueless about the intricate ties between bowls and conferences---heck half the bowl prediction pages have the wrong conferences linked to certain bowls). My point is, there could be some similar deals hiding in the CUSA bowl agreements where CUSA teams can jump into some of these better bowl slots that might open up.

I hope you are right. I love having 5 solid bowls every year, but going to Boca Raton or Hawaii to play another G5 when we are 60 miles away from a P5 matchup would be heartbreaking. I also like the fact that we have a set group of Bowls that is strickly ours "NewMexico and HOD" while swapping back and forth with AAC and MAC for a few others. Its cool to play the Bahamas Bowl this year and the MIAMI BEACH the next. It's also great for tradition to have a couple games that we as a conference look forward to every year like the Heart of Dallas. The P5 conferences got it right when they entered into strategic partnerships with certain bowl games like the Rose, Sugar, Cotton and Citrus. Even the Outback, Holiday, and Alamo carry certain conference traditions. Back in the old days everybody new that the SWC played in the Cotton, The ACC played in the Orange, SEC in the Sugar and Big Ten/Pac-8 played in the Rose. The open side of some of these bowls was interchanged with the Big8 and each other.
10-28-2014 03:11 PM
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Post: #53
Bowl Analysis - Week 9
"Lets assume they put 2 in the play-off and 2 in the Access Bowls."

I'm not assuming that...


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10-28-2014 03:30 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
Ok... They will no doubt put 1 in the Playoff and prolly 2 in Access Bowl slots. With 9 Bowl eligble teams we are at the same place I mentioned earlier. With 10 there are still 2 slots left in Birmingham and Shreveport.
10-28-2014 03:37 PM
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KAjunRaider Offline
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RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
(10-28-2014 02:32 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  The sad part of this is, I wish it was the ACC that came up short so we could play one of these lower level SEC teams in Shreveport. I would be fired up as anybody to see Tech play Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech or Boston College, but to get to play Tennessee, Florida or South Carolina would be amazing!! I'm sure we all have that short list of college programs that we all want to face in a bowl game one day, Florida is one of mine.

You know damn well that ESPN isn't gonna let LaTech play the vawls. They'll switch teams around and have you playing MAC or MTN West.
10-28-2014 03:38 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
I was simply saying that it would be awesome. They damn well won't let the Vols play MTSU.
10-28-2014 03:39 PM
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KAjunRaider Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
(10-28-2014 03:39 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  I was simply saying that it would be awesome. They damn well won't let the Vols play MTSU.

No they won't. That goes for all of us.

Even in that scenario. And it $ucks.
10-28-2014 03:41 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
The SEC had no problem playin us in the Liberty Bowl for years and years, they aren't too concerned about it now. As long as its not SEC team vs. and In-state school in an SEC bowl game they aren't gonna care. Besides, we need them to not have a team fill the Indy or Birmingham slots so we can play an ACC or AAC team. But you are right about one thing, these bowl games will never happen outside an access bowl:

1. Tenn vs MTSU
2. WKU vs. UK
3. LSU vs. Tech
4. Texas A&M vs. any Texas school
5. Florida vs. any Floridan School
6. UAB vs. Alabama
7. USM vs. OLE piss or Moo state

They may play us at their place early in the season, but a neutral site with much fanfare ain't gonna happen.
10-28-2014 03:48 PM
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MTowho Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
(10-28-2014 02:29 PM)UofMemphis Wrote:  
(10-27-2014 06:28 PM)MTowho Wrote:  Best case scenario for CUSA at this point, based on geography, getting the most teams in, not playing in your own home stadium, and maximizing our chances of winning vs. P5, is:

Marshall gets Access bowl, presumably Peach.
La Tech to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
Rice to Dallas/Shreveport to face Big 10/ACC
MT to Birmingham to face AAC
UTEP to New Mexico to face MWC
UAB to Boca Raton to face MAC
FAU to Bahamas to face MAC
WKU to Hawaii to face MWC

That's 8 teams in, assuming we even have that many. This isn't outside the realm of possibility at all as far as the bowls available to us. Of course, you could interchange any of MT/WKU/UAB/FAU in this scenario. The Western division is a little easier to place based on proximity. The scenario I have above would only really inconvenience WKU as far as travel, but they would likely be one of the last teams in anyway. All this would take is Marshall getting the access bowl and two out of Arkansas/Tennessee/Florida not becoming eligible, and for the rest of the conferences to do what we generally expect as far as extra teams.

SEC should have no issue filling it's bowls...looks like they will have 9, maybe 10 bowl eligible teams.

Yeah, read the first post. It's not out of the realm of possibility that they get 4 in access/semis. Even if they only have 3 in access/semis, it would only take Tennessee/Florida/Arkansas not becoming bowl eligible for Birmingham to be open.

I do get what you are saying about the somewhat unclear underlying agreements with some of these bowls though. The only thing we know for sure is that ESPN rules all in the end.
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2014 04:10 PM by MTowho.)
10-28-2014 04:06 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Bowl Analysis - Week 9
There are 9 SEC Bowls, plus 2 access spots and 1 play off spot. Thats 12 spots, how many SEC teams do you project being bowl eligible?
10-28-2014 04:16 PM
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