CSNbbs

Some interesting movement this week. The tightening of bowl eligibility chances for bubble teams is creating a slightly clearer picture - if not just to know who to cheer for/against in the coming weeks. Also forgot about the Notre Dame/ACC arrangement in last week's analysis.

There are 12 Access/Semifnal bowl slots. The current projection on those slots from CBS are 4 SEC, 1 Big 12, 2 Big 10, 2 Pac 12, 2 ACC, 1 AAC (I will update following release of actual rankings on Tuesday). Obviously moving those around will shift which slots end up being open, etc, but that's the assumption for this analysis. Notre Dame not making one of those bowls leaves them as an at large.

The # of slots listed below are only primary slots.

SEC (4 Access/Semi slots, 9 additional, 13 total) - 10 teams are likely in, with Florida/Tennessee/Arkansas being the bubble teams. If none get eligible, they will leave open 3 slots. Independence is the first slot open, meaning CUSA will exercise their backup arrangement there. If none of those three get in, Independence, Birmingham, and another one of the SEC's non-Citrus bowl games will be open. Florida and Tennessee have a good shot at getting eligible, with Arkansas on the outside looking in.

Prediction: 13 slots, 11 teams, Independence/Birmingham open.

Big 12 (1 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 6 total) - 6 teams are likely in, with Texas Tech and Texas on the bubble. I don't think either one makes it.

Prediction: 6 slots, 6 teams

Big 10 (2 Access/Semi slots, 8 additional, 10 total) - There are 10 teams likely to be eligible, with Michigan/Indiana/Illinois being the bubble teams. I don't think any of them make it.

Prediction: 10 slots, 10 teams

Pac 12 (2 Access/Semi slots, 6 additional, 8 total) - Nine teams will be in, California on the bubble

Prediction: 8 slots, 9 teams

ACC (2 Access/Semi slots, 9 additional, 11 total) - What a mess. 10 teams likely in, with Virginia and Syracuse on the bubble. I don't think either one makes it. The ACC has a deal with Notre Dame that lets an non-Access ACC bowl take Notre Dame over an ACC team in the event that they have a record within 1 win of another eligible ACC team.

Prediction: 11 slots, 10 teams, with Notre Dame making 11

AAC (1 Access/Semi slot, 5 additional, 6 total) - The fight for the access slot between Marshall and ECU will trickle down to the 6 win teams in the AAC and CUSA trying to get a bowl bid. The AAC looks pretty clear cut with 6 teams, so if ECU does not get the Access slot, one may be left out.

Prediction: 6 slots, 6 teams

CUSA (0 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 5 total) - Marshall, MT, Rice, and La Tech look to be in, and from there, it's a mess. WKU, UTEP, and UAB are in decent position, with FIU/FAU having a shot as well. Not sure about anyone else.

Prediction: 5 slots, 7 teams

MWC (0 Access/Semi slots, 6 additional, 6 total) - Six teams that are locks. Fresno St and SJSU are on the bubble. Right now it doesn't look good for either of them.

Prediction: 6 slots, 6 teams

MAC (0 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 5 total) - They have 6 in, with Ohio, Ball St and Buffalo on the bubble. Those extra teams are probably left in the cold at this point, no matter how many there are.

Prediction: 5 slots, 7 teams

SBC (0 Access/Semi slots, 3 additional, 3 total) - GaSo, App St, and Idaho are ineligible for either FBS transition or academic reasons. ULM is on the bubble, but I have them out right now.

Prediction: 3 slots, 4 teams

Independent (0 Access/Semi slots, 3 additional, 3 total) - Army, Navy, and BYU all have agreements with bowls, while Notre Dame has the ACC deal. ND is out of the access picture in the latest CBS projection, meaning they will take an ACC slot. Army will not fill theirs.

Prediction: 3 slots, 3 teams

Summary
SEC: Birmingham open, Independence open (CUSA backup)
Big 12: none
Big 10: none
Pac 12: 1 extra team
ACC: with ND, they will come out without an extra slot/team
AAC: none
CUSA: 2 extra teams
MWC: none
MAC: 2 extra teams
SBC: 1 extra team
Indy: Armed Forces open, Notre Dame uses ACC slot

So, it's pretty simple if it comes out like this. You have only three bowls open - Independence (vs ACC), Birmingham (vs AAC), and Armed Forces (vs AAC). Extra teams are P12/CUSA/CUSA/MAC/MAC/SBC.

CUSA will exercise its backup agreement with Independence, leaving P12/CUSA/MAC/MAC/SBC for Birmingham and Armed Forces (or two total slots somewhere, depending on ESPN wheeling and dealing). You have to assume that the P12 team gets first dibs, then its a race between a CUSA team, two MAC garbage squads, and a Texas St/South Alabama type team. You could have a situation where CUSA says, we can send La Tech, Rice, or UTEP to Armed Forces, while the SBC says hey, we can send South Alabama to Birmingham, or Texas St to Armed Forces. It will be up to the bowls/conferences to present their best deal. I think it favors CUSA at this point.

Teams to cheer against for (realistic) maximum bowl opportunities:

SEC: Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas
B12: Texas Tech, Texas
B1G: Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue
P12: California
ACC: Virginia, Syracuse, NC State, Pitt, UNC
AAC: East Carolina, Temple
MWC: Fresno St, SJSU
MAC: Ohio, Ball St, Buffalo
SBC: ULM, Texas St, South Alabama

Again, I will update when the CFP rankings get released, in the case that it changes the allocation of semi/access bowl slots.

I wouldn't pencil Rice in just yet. They have an extremely tough schedule ahead of them: FIU, La Tech, and Marshall on the road with UTEP at home. You can probably chalk up UTSA as a win but those other four games are going to be tough.

I do think you can pencil UTEP (4-3) as a bowl eligible team. There next three games are home for USM and UNT; on the road at WKU. I think the Miners win two of those three games if not all three.

WKU (3-4) has two road games (La Tech and Marshall) and has Army, UTEP, and UTSA at home sandwiched between La Tech and Marshall. I dare say but that UTEP game will probably determine WKU's bowl fate.

UAB (4-4) has La Tech and Marshall at home and play USM and FAU on the road. The Blazers have their toughest games at home but the road games will be tough too! I think it's 50/50 UAB gets to six wins.

FIU (3-5) have their two toughest games at home (Rice and MTSU) with ODU and UNT on the road. I think it's going to be tough for FIU to get to six wins. Tough but not impossible.

FAU (3-5) winnable games at home vs UAB and ODU with UNT and MTSU on the road. Like FIU, I think it's going to be tough for FAU to get to six wins. Tough but not impossible.

Along with Marshall, La Tech, and MTSU, I like Rice and UTEP to become bowl eligible. Teams like WKU, UAB, FIU, and FAU will need to hope other bowls become available in the event they become bowl eligible.

Nicely done fellas.

I don't have the time to follow, much less analyze bowl scenarios. But your summary brings folks up to speed in a minute.

UAB at FAU is big big big for bowl eligibility. Owls schedule is a bit easier than UAB down the stretch.

Thanks for the analysis and breakdown, guys. Appreciate it.

(10-26-2014 10:49 AM)MTowho Wrote: [ -> ]CUSA will exercise its backup agreement with Independence, leaving P12/CUSA/MAC/MAC/SBC for Birmingham and Armed Forces (or two total slots somewhere, depending on ESPN wheeling and dealing). You have to assume that the P12 team gets first dibs, then its a race between a CUSA team, two MAC garbage squads, and a Texas St/South Alabama type team. You could have a situation where CUSA says, we can send La Tech, Rice, or UTEP to Armed Forces, while the SBC says hey, we can send South Alabama to Birmingham, or Texas St to Armed Forces. It will be up to the bowls/conferences to present their best deal. I think it favors CUSA at this point.

Awesome work, and rep points for you!

I would be very happy to help C-USA out and broker a deal where Rice gets sent to the Armed Forces Bowl to play Houston. With the current Athletic Director Texas-Texas A&M like refusal to schedule each other, it may be the best chance to see the Owls and Coogs play again in the near future. I think the Armed Forces would see that as a very attractive match-up.

(10-26-2014 02:55 PM)ESE84 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-26-2014 10:49 AM)MTowho Wrote: [ -> ]CUSA will exercise its backup agreement with Independence, leaving P12/CUSA/MAC/MAC/SBC for Birmingham and Armed Forces (or two total slots somewhere, depending on ESPN wheeling and dealing). You have to assume that the P12 team gets first dibs, then its a race between a CUSA team, two MAC garbage squads, and a Texas St/South Alabama type team. You could have a situation where CUSA says, we can send La Tech, Rice, or UTEP to Armed Forces, while the SBC says hey, we can send South Alabama to Birmingham, or Texas St to Armed Forces. It will be up to the bowls/conferences to present their best deal. I think it favors CUSA at this point.

Awesome work, and rep points for you!

I would be very happy to help C-USA out and broker a deal where Rice gets sent to the Armed Forces Bowl to play Houston. With the current Athletic Director Texas-Texas A&M like refusal to schedule each other, it may be the best chance to see the Owls and Coogs play again in the near future. I think the Armed Forces would see that as a very attractive match-up.

Agree. With Birmingham also in play it presents alot of possibilities to get one of the Eastern division teams a more attractive opponent in a better location as well. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out. ESPN is the puppet master at the end of the day considering how many bowls they own, so whatever they want to do will ultimately be how it goes.

(10-26-2014 03:06 PM)MTowho Wrote: [ -> ]Agree. With Birmingham also in play it presents alot of possibilities to get one of the Eastern division teams a more attractive opponent in a better location as well. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out. ESPN is the puppet master at the end of the day considering how many bowls they own, so whatever they want to do will ultimately be how it goes.

For selfish reasons I would love to see UAB get bowl eligible and play in Birmingham. It's the only way UAB would have a decent crowd for a bowl game. OTOH, the players would probably hate it...lol.

wow - great information - thanks for taking time putting it together. I really enjoy reading these analysis.

(10-26-2014 03:32 PM)NanoDawg Wrote: [ -> ]wow - great information - thanks for taking time putting it together. I really enjoy reading these analysis.

Glad people enjoy it as much as I enjoy putting it together. I'll put one out each week. All of those years in the Belt with 1 or 2 guaranteed bowl slots made this kind of thing an annual tradition for us at MT. I always wanted to know who I needed to cheer against down to the final detail.

Cheer for Miami. 2 of our last four games are against UNC and Pitt :)

I assume we need to root against Colorado State, as well ?

(10-27-2014 09:46 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote: [ -> ]I assume we need to root against Colorado State, as well ?

They can only get the G5 slot if they win out AND Boise loses at least once. Could happen.

(10-27-2014 09:46 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote: [ -> ]I assume we need to root against Colorado State, as well ?

Right, makes sense.

(10-27-2014 09:46 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote: [ -> ]I assume we need to root against Colorado State, as well ?

Only if Boise St. loses a conference game. Otherwise, Colorado St. would not be eligible for Access Slot because they would not be conference champions. You have to remember, in order to be eligible for the Access Bowl slot, you have to be a conference champion. The rankings only come into play to determine the highest ranked champion of the G5 conferences.

(10-27-2014 10:36 AM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-27-2014 09:46 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote: [ -> ]I assume we need to root against Colorado State, as well ?

Only if Boise St. loses a conference game. Otherwise, Colorado St. would not be eligible for Access Slot because they would not be conference champions. You have to remember, in order to be eligible for the Access Bowl slot, you have to be a conference champion. The rankings only come into play to determine the highest ranked champion of the G5 conferences.

I knew that, but don't we want them to go ahead and lose now, just in case Boise drops a game ?

(10-26-2014 10:49 AM)MTowho Wrote: [ -> ]Some interesting movement this week. The tightening of bowl eligibility chances for bubble teams is creating a slightly clearer picture - if not just to know who to cheer for/against in the coming weeks. Also forgot about the Notre Dame/ACC arrangement in last week's analysis.

There are 12 Access/Semifnal bowl slots. The current projection on those slots from CBS are 4 SEC, 1 Big 12, 2 Big 10, 2 Pac 12, 2 ACC, 1 AAC (I will update following release of actual rankings on Tuesday). Obviously moving those around will shift which slots end up being open, etc, but that's the assumption for this analysis. Notre Dame not making one of those bowls leaves them as an at large.

The # of slots listed below are only primary slots.

SEC (4 Access/Semi slots, 9 additional, 13 total) - 10 teams are likely in, with Florida/Tennessee/Arkansas being the bubble teams. If none get eligible, they will leave open 3 slots. Independence is the first slot open, meaning CUSA will exercise their backup arrangement there. If none of those three get in, Independence, Birmingham, and another one of the SEC's non-Citrus bowl games will be open. Florida and Tennessee have a good shot at getting eligible, with Arkansas on the outside looking in.

Prediction: 13 slots, 11 teams, Independence/Birmingham open.

Big 12 (1 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 6 total) - 6 teams are likely in, with Texas Tech and Texas on the bubble. I don't think either one makes it.

Prediction: 6 slots, 6 teams

Big 10 (2 Access/Semi slots, 8 additional, 10 total) - There are 10 teams likely to be eligible, with Michigan/Indiana/Illinois being the bubble teams. I don't think any of them make it.

Prediction: 10 slots, 10 teams

Pac 12 (2 Access/Semi slots, 6 additional, 8 total) - Nine teams will be in, California on the bubble

Prediction: 8 slots, 9 teams

ACC (2 Access/Semi slots, 9 additional, 11 total) - What a mess. 10 teams likely in, with Virginia and Syracuse on the bubble. I don't think either one makes it. The ACC has a deal with Notre Dame that lets an non-Access ACC bowl take Notre Dame over an ACC team in the event that they have a record within 1 win of another eligible ACC team.

Prediction: 11 slots, 10 teams, with Notre Dame making 11

AAC (1 Access/Semi slot, 5 additional, 6 total) - The fight for the access slot between Marshall and ECU will trickle down to the 6 win teams in the AAC and CUSA trying to get a bowl bid. The AAC looks pretty clear cut with 6 teams, so if ECU does not get the Access slot, one may be left out.

Prediction: 6 slots, 6 teams

CUSA (0 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 5 total) - Marshall, MT, Rice, and La Tech look to be in, and from there, it's a mess. WKU, UTEP, and UAB are in decent position, with FIU/FAU having a shot as well. Not sure about anyone else.

Prediction: 5 slots, 7 teams

MWC (0 Access/Semi slots, 6 additional, 6 total) - Six teams that are locks. Fresno St and SJSU are on the bubble. Right now it doesn't look good for either of them.

Prediction: 6 slots, 6 teams

MAC (0 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 5 total) - They have 6 in, with Ohio, Ball St and Buffalo on the bubble. Those extra teams are probably left in the cold at this point, no matter how many there are.

Prediction: 5 slots, 7 teams

SBC (0 Access/Semi slots, 3 additional, 3 total) - GaSo, App St, and Idaho are ineligible for either FBS transition or academic reasons. ULM is on the bubble, but I have them out right now.

Prediction: 3 slots, 4 teams

Independent (0 Access/Semi slots, 3 additional, 3 total) - Army, Navy, and BYU all have agreements with bowls, while Notre Dame has the ACC deal. ND is out of the access picture in the latest CBS projection, meaning they will take an ACC slot. Army will not fill theirs.

Prediction: 3 slots, 3 teams

Summary
SEC: Birmingham open, Independence open (CUSA backup)
Big 12: none
Big 10: none
Pac 12: 1 extra team
ACC: with ND, they will come out without an extra slot/team
AAC: none
CUSA: 2 extra teams
MWC: none
MAC: 2 extra teams
SBC: 1 extra team
Indy: Armed Forces open, Notre Dame uses ACC slot

So, it's pretty simple if it comes out like this. You have only three bowls open - Independence (vs ACC), Birmingham (vs AAC), and Armed Forces (vs AAC). Extra teams are P12/CUSA/CUSA/MAC/MAC/SBC.

CUSA will exercise its backup agreement with Independence, leaving P12/CUSA/MAC/MAC/SBC for Birmingham and Armed Forces (or two total slots somewhere, depending on ESPN wheeling and dealing). You have to assume that the P12 team gets first dibs, then its a race between a CUSA team, two MAC garbage squads, and a Texas St/South Alabama type team. You could have a situation where CUSA says, we can send La Tech, Rice, or UTEP to Armed Forces, while the SBC says hey, we can send South Alabama to Birmingham, or Texas St to Armed Forces. It will be up to the bowls/conferences to present their best deal. I think it favors CUSA at this point.

Teams to cheer against for (realistic) maximum bowl opportunities:

SEC: Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas
B12: Texas Tech, Texas
B1G: Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue
P12: California
ACC: Virginia, Syracuse, NC State, Pitt, UNC
AAC: East Carolina, Temple
MWC: Fresno St, SJSU
MAC: Ohio, Ball St, Buffalo
SBC: ULM, Texas St, South Alabama

Again, I will update when the CFP rankings get released, in the case that it changes the allocation of semi/access bowl slots.

Nice analysis. The only fly in the ointment might be the Indy Bowl. Both the AAC and CUSA claim a backup tie there and I have never heard a decent explanation of how that dual backup would function. Does the CUSA backup agreement stand ahead of the AAC backup--or is the other way around? Are the claims equal and the Indy Bowl simply choose the one they prefer in any given year? Does each conference back up a specific tie (for instance, does CUSA back up the SEC slot and the AAC backs up the ACC slot)? Lots of unanswered questions there. These questions could be important if Marshall ends up going to the access bowl.

It's certainly possible that in his scenario Indy goes to the AAC. If Birmingham (vs AAC), and Armed Forces (vs AAC) are open, the AAC can't play themselves. C-USA could get a slot in one of those bowls in return for AAC getting Indy. Lots of wheeling and dealing to be done by ESPN.

(10-27-2014 11:03 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-27-2014 10:36 AM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-27-2014 09:46 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote: [ -> ]I assume we need to root against Colorado State, as well ?

Only if Boise St. loses a conference game. Otherwise, Colorado St. would not be eligible for Access Slot because they would not be conference champions. You have to remember, in order to be eligible for the Access Bowl slot, you have to be a conference champion. The rankings only come into play to determine the highest ranked champion of the G5 conferences.

I knew that, but don't we want them to go ahead and lose now, just in case Boise drops a game ?

True. Better to be safe than sorry.

(10-27-2014 11:34 AM)BeliefBlazer Wrote: [ -> ]It's certainly possible that in his scenario Indy goes to the AAC. If Birmingham (vs AAC), and Armed Forces (vs AAC) are open, the AAC can't play themselves. C-USA could get a slot in one of those bowls in return for AAC getting Indy. Lots of wheeling and dealing to be done by ESPN.

The AAC would certainly swap the B'ham Bowl for the Indy. One reason would be the payout, much higher for the Indy than B'ham. Second is prestige and better opponent. I would certainly hope CUSA wouldn't do this swap even if it benefitted UAB.