One of the early lines for the stAte/Montana State game Saturday has us as an 8 point favorite.

I think that's ridiculously low considering we've beaten our FCS opponents by an average of 40 points the last 10 years. So I just have to ask, is Montana State really that good, or are these odds makers really out of their minds?

(08-12-2014 05:21 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  One of the early lines for the stAte/Montana State game Saturday has us as an 8 point favorite.

I think that's ridiculously low considering we've beaten our FCS opponents by an average of 40 points the last 10 years. So I just have to ask, is Montana State really that good, or are these odds makers really out of their minds?

Would be hard to say without knowing who those FCS teams were and when you beat them and by what score.
40 points is a heck of a lot of points, but if only one or two teams would not mean that much.

(08-12-2014 05:31 PM)GoApps70 Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:21 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  One of the early lines for the stAte/Montana State game Saturday has us as an 8 point favorite.

I think that's ridiculously low considering we've beaten our FCS opponents by an average of 40 points the last 10 years. So I just have to ask, is Montana State really that good, or are these odds makers really out of their minds?

Would be hard to say without knowing who those FCS teams were and when you beat them and by what score.
40 points is a heck of a lot of points, but if only one or two teams would not mean that much.

Terrible jokey ones. The best one was UCA. Montana State will be the best one we have faced in a long time by far.

Montana State almost knocked off SMU last year. They did lose some key skill players though.

(08-12-2014 05:31 PM)GoApps70 Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:21 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  One of the early lines for the stAte/Montana State game Saturday has us as an 8 point favorite.

I think that's ridiculously low considering we've beaten our FCS opponents by an average of 40 points the last 10 years. So I just have to ask, is Montana State really that good, or are these odds makers really out of their minds?

Would be hard to say without knowing who those FCS teams were and when you beat them and by what score.
40 points is a heck of a lot of points, but if only one or two teams would not mean that much.

Mostly SWAC/Southland/ Ohio Valley Members. The Central Arkansas Team that finished 15th and lost to Montana in the 2nd round of the playoffs was the best of that group. We beat them by 30.

(08-12-2014 05:21 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  One of the early lines for the stAte/Montana State game Saturday has us as an 8 point favorite.

I think that's ridiculously low considering we've beaten our FCS opponents by an average of 40 points the last 10 years. So I just have to ask, is Montana State really that good, or are these odds makers really out of their minds?

You have to realize that facing a Big Sky team is a bit different than facing a SWAC team. There might actually be a bigger difference in those leagues than there is between the non-AQ FBS leagues and the SEC. The SWAC is an awful conference that quit the IAA playoffs long ago because they can make more money in their own postseason than they can taking yearly a**-kickings in the playoffs. I'm fairly sure you won't beat MSU by 40+.

Still looks like easy money, though. Montana State isn't nearly the threat they once were without DeNarius McGhee. If I were setting the spread I would put it somewhere between 20-30 points.

Ga Southern will not be suddenly better than last year's team simply because we are now FBS. With that said, I would think the Vegas lines will be under 10 for all of our SBC games. I don't think there is much difference between the top 20 FCS and bottom 30 FBS.

(08-12-2014 05:40 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:31 PM)GoApps70 Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:21 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  One of the early lines for the stAte/Montana State game Saturday has us as an 8 point favorite.

I think that's ridiculously low considering we've beaten our FCS opponents by an average of 40 points the last 10 years. So I just have to ask, is Montana State really that good, or are these odds makers really out of their minds?

Would be hard to say without knowing who those FCS teams were and when you beat them and by what score.
40 points is a heck of a lot of points, but if only one or two teams would not mean that much.

Mostly SWAC/Southland/ Ohio Valley Members. The Central Arkansas Team that finished 15th and lost to Montana in the 2nd round of the playoffs was the best of that group. We beat them by 30.

No disrespect to them but, I never even noticed Central Arkansas until I saw some talk about them here.
Montana State could be a tough FCS opponent for you. Depends on how you match up. stAte should have a better team, but if MSU has some areas they can do better and can game plan for those areas it could be a long day.

(08-12-2014 06:10 PM)GoApps70 Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:40 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:31 PM)GoApps70 Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:21 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  One of the early lines for the stAte/Montana State game Saturday has us as an 8 point favorite.

I think that's ridiculously low considering we've beaten our FCS opponents by an average of 40 points the last 10 years. So I just have to ask, is Montana State really that good, or are these odds makers really out of their minds?

Would be hard to say without knowing who those FCS teams were and when you beat them and by what score.
40 points is a heck of a lot of points, but if only one or two teams would not mean that much.

Mostly SWAC/Southland/ Ohio Valley Members. The Central Arkansas Team that finished 15th and lost to Montana in the 2nd round of the playoffs was the best of that group. We beat them by 30.

No disrespect to them but, I never even noticed Central Arkansas until I saw some talk about them here.
Montana State could be a tough FCS opponent for you. Depends on how you match up. stAte should have a better team, but if MSU has some areas they can do better and can game plan for those areas it could be a long day.

UCA hasn't been in FCS very long. They had a great transition and made noise immediately. They gave LaTech a big scare. But haven't been around long enough in FCS to be that familiar at this point. They have that insanely stupid migraine inducing purple and grey striped field.

And Georgia Southern and Texas State know who they are.

For what it is worth, Montana State was only a 10.5 point dog @ SMU last year in the game they led in very late.

So the line is NOT unreasonable. I think there are so many questions about A-State. This is the first time we've lost a Coach, a QB, and A Defensive Coordinator all at the same time, and with the late loss of center Giddens, who knows. We are probably going to have 4 freshman linemen in the 2 deep - two on each side of the ball.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me to see that line bet up past 10 as high as 14 closer to game time.



stAte had Ryan Aplin when we faced UCA last in 2011, and we opened up a 17 point favorite and the line went to 20.5. UCA's QB was out and we pulled away and won 53-24.
The week before that UCA took La Tech to the wire in Ruston ( OT if I recall ) in a game in which they were 17 point dogs.

(08-12-2014 06:17 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  So the line is NOT unreasonable. I think there are so many questions about A-State. This is the first time we've lost a Coach, a QB, and A Defensive Coordinator all at the same time, and with the late loss of center Giddens, who knows. We are probably going to have 4 freshman linemen in the 2 deep - two on each side of the ball.

First time head coach too. Even with the mightly Malzahn it took several games for him to get his sea-legs and figure out (and trust) his team. Harsin had a rough time of it as well but the assistants came through and saved it in the end. It only took Freeze about a half to figure it out since he was OC the year before. We need Anderson and crew to best Malzahn and hit the ground running in game one.

(08-12-2014 06:25 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 06:17 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  So the line is NOT unreasonable. I think there are so many questions about A-State. This is the first time we've lost a Coach, a QB, and A Defensive Coordinator all at the same time, and with the late loss of center Giddens, who knows. We are probably going to have 4 freshman linemen in the 2 deep - two on each side of the ball.

First time head coach too. Even with the mightly Malzahn it took several games for him to get his sea-legs and figure out (and trust) his team. Harsin had a rough time of it as well but the assistants came through and saved it in the end. It only took Freeze about a half to figure it out since he was OC the year before. We need Anderson and crew to best Malzahn and hit the ground running in game one.

Freeze had to figure it out fast. He really wanted to stick it to Memphis for not considering him for their job when they hired Larry Porter, so he wanted everything on tune that game. 50-3 showed it was.

(08-12-2014 06:25 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 06:17 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  So the line is NOT unreasonable. I think there are so many questions about A-State. This is the first time we've lost a Coach, a QB, and A Defensive Coordinator all at the same time, and with the late loss of center Giddens, who knows. We are probably going to have 4 freshman linemen in the 2 deep - two on each side of the ball.

First time head coach too. Even with the mightly Malzahn it took several games for him to get his sea-legs and figure out (and trust) his team. Harsin had a rough time of it as well but the assistants came through and saved it in the end. It only took Freeze about a half to figure it out since he was OC the year before. We need Anderson and crew to best Malzahn and hit the ground running in game one.

Sure. And Hugh probably would have done better @ ILLINOIS if not for that fact. Working the kinks out as new HC/new DC probably clouded the fact that we were eventually as good or better than Illinois that year.

(08-12-2014 05:21 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  One of the early lines for the stAte/Montana State game Saturday has us as an 8 point favorite.

I think that's ridiculously low considering we've beaten our FCS opponents by an average of 40 points the last 10 years. So I just have to ask, is Montana State really that good, or are these odds makers really out of their minds?

Is Montana State the same as Montana? I wouldn't have thought there'd be enough people in the state to have two universities.

For what it's worth, Montana is ranked number 5 in the preseason know-it-all coach's poll.

May just mean there are more gamblers in Montana than Arkansas.

But I think opening game lines are a little tighter just because:
it's opening day,
some teams bury the playbook,
even with a lead teams will get some game situation reps for backups,
especially backup QBs,

etc. etc.

Don't know what the line was last year before McNeese played USF at their place but I'm betting USF wasn't a 30 point underdog.

Are Montana & Montana State the same? That's like someone askng if stAte and Arkansas are the same... They are two distinct and different schools. App has played both the Grizzlies and Bobcats in the past. FWIW, MSU is ranked #18 by TSNs preseason poll.

(08-12-2014 06:16 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 06:10 PM)GoApps70 Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:40 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:31 PM)GoApps70 Wrote:  

(08-12-2014 05:21 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  One of the early lines for the stAte/Montana State game Saturday has us as an 8 point favorite.

I think that's ridiculously low considering we've beaten our FCS opponents by an average of 40 points the last 10 years. So I just have to ask, is Montana State really that good, or are these odds makers really out of their minds?

Would be hard to say without knowing who those FCS teams were and when you beat them and by what score.
40 points is a heck of a lot of points, but if only one or two teams would not mean that much.

Mostly SWAC/Southland/ Ohio Valley Members. The Central Arkansas Team that finished 15th and lost to Montana in the 2nd round of the playoffs was the best of that group. We beat them by 30.

No disrespect to them but, I never even noticed Central Arkansas until I saw some talk about them here.
Montana State could be a tough FCS opponent for you. Depends on how you match up. stAte should have a better team, but if MSU has some areas they can do better and can game plan for those areas it could be a long day.

UCA hasn't been in FCS very long. They had a great transition and made noise immediately. They gave LaTech a big scare. But haven't been around long enough in FCS to be that familiar at this point. They have that insanely stupid migraine inducing purple and grey striped field.

And Georgia Southern and Texas State know who they are.

I really liked UCA but they made a serious Boo Boo with the field striping....nauseating.

Montana State is in Bozeman and Montana is in Missoula.Both programs are very tough at home and a little less on the road.I would not be disrespected by the current line even if Montana State isn't as heralded as Montana they are no pushover.

(08-12-2014 07:44 PM)WhitetailWizard Wrote:  I really liked UCA but they made a serious Boo Boo with the field striping....nauseating.

Purple with grey end zones would have been ok. But they chose nightmare instead.

I figure stAte will win by around 3 TD's.

Montana State is a really good FCS squad, but not enough to keep the line at 8.

(08-12-2014 07:42 PM)appsfan Wrote:  Are Montana & Montane State the same? That's like someone askng if stAte and Arkansas are the same... They are two distinct and different schools. App has played both the Grizzlies and Bobcats in the past. FWIW, MSU is ranked #18 by TSNs preseason poll.

Hmm. I think UCA was 11th the year we played them. So they grade out similarly.