Here is how I think the 2014 season will play out.

1. UCF 10-2 They're #1 until proven otherwise. I see them going 3-1 in OOC, and dropping a game in the conference they shouldn't. Big shoes to replace at QB.

2. Cincinnati 10-2 I see them going 3-1 in OOC too with a big win at Miami. Gunner Kiel will come into his own, and will be fun to watch. Although they will probably lose to someone they have no business losing to like they did last year against USF.

3. Houston 10-2 with losses to Cincinnati and UCF. Houston will be 4-0 going into the UCF game, and if they win that it is clear sailing until Cincinnati in final week. COuld be the AAC championship game.

4. East Carolina 7-5 on paper ECU has the toughest schedule in the AAC. Their OOC is very tough with UNC, VA Tech, and South Carolina. Best case scenario is 4-0 worst is 1-3. I'm hoping for the best it would make a bold statement for the AAC, and ECU football. If the worst is to happen I can see ECU with the record I predicted. They will drop two maybe three in AAC. What a welcoming to the conference the Pirates get.

5. Temple 7-5 The Owls impressed me last year with a young QB who makes the defense stay true, and a defense that never gives up. Temple will make a bowl, and as the season goes on teams won't want to see them on their upcoming schedule.

6. Tulane 7-5 The Green Wave have a lot to be excited about this season. I think some of the excitement will translate to a few extra wins.

7. Tulsa 7-5 The Golden Hurricane will bounce back, and be a tough team in their debut season in the AAC.

8. Memphis 6-6 The Tigers will build on the foundation their defense has laid, and will figure out how to score some points this year. Will it be enough to go bowling?

9. USF 5-7 they mystery in Tampa will continue as the Bulls stumble through another season.

10. UCONN 4-8UCONN offensive woes will continue, and the American will be a tough road for them this year.

11. SMU - 3-9 It will be a long season in Dallas. June Jones may finally be fired after the disaster of 2014.

It will be interesting to see if I'm am close or totally off this year. Can't wait for kickoff.

I have no problem with your overall analysis, but I think you over-estimate the bottom of the conference. There is a real chance that between UConn and Tulsa the AAC could have one or two sub-3 win teams.

I agree the bottom half is overestimated here. I think you can take a win off each between 6 and 10.

I think that you are way off with UConn. They will finish mid-pack this year. The best they will finish is 5th in the league and the worst they will finish is 7th. I fully expect the Huskies to finish above Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, and USF (possible Temple as well).

Nobody gives UConn any respect, which is fine by us UConn fans. We can't wait until all the doubters are proven wrong. I hope that team plays with a chip on its shoulder all year.

I think USF and Memphis will finish higher than Temple and Tulsa

(07-18-2014 11:28 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  I have no problem with your overall analysis, but I think you over-estimate the bottom of the conference. There is a real chance that between UConn and Tulsa the AAC could have one or two sub-3 win teams.

Not with the teams Tulsa's playing... FIU and Texas State? I don't see us losing those two teams... Colorado State is another doable win... that doesn't even bring into account the lower end teams of the AAC...

(07-18-2014 11:14 AM)True Bearcat Wrote:  Here is how I think the 2014 season will play out.

1. UCF 9-2 They're #1 until proven otherwise. I see them going 3-1 in OOC, and dropping a game in the conference they shouldn't. Big shoes to replace at QB.

2. Cincinnati 9-2 I see them going 3-1 in OOC too with a big win at Miami. Gunner Kiel will come into his own, and will be fun to watch. Although they will probably lose to someone they have no business losing to like they did last year against USF.

3. Houston 9-2 with losses to Cincinnati and UCF. Houston will be 4-0 going into the UCF game, and if they win that it is clear sailing until Cincinnati in final week. COuld be the AAC championship game.

4. East Carolina 7-5 on paper ECU has the toughest schedule in the AAC. Their OOC is very tough with UNC, VA Tech, and South Carolina. Best case scenario is 4-0 worst is 1-3. I'm hoping for the best it would make a bold statement for the AAC, and ECU football. If the worst is to happen I can see ECU with the record I predicted. They will drop two maybe three in AAC. What a welcoming to the conference the Pirates get.

5. Temple 7-5 The Owls impressed me last year with a young QB who makes the defense stay true, and a defense that never gives up. Temple will make a bowl, and as the season goes on teams won't want to see them on their upcoming schedule.

6. Tulane 7-5 The Green Wave have a lot to be excited about this season. I think some of the excitement will translate to a few extra wins.

7. Tulsa 7-5 The Golden Hurricane will bounce back, and be a tough team in their debut season in the AAC.

8. Memphis 6-6 The Tigers will build on the foundation their defense has laid, and will figure out how to score some points this year. Will it be enough to go bowling?

9. USF 5-7 they mystery in Tampa will continue as the Bulls stumble through another season.

10. UCONN 4-7 UCONN offensive woes will continue, and the American will be a tough road for them this year.

11. SMU - 3-8 It will be a long season in Dallas. June Jones may finally be fired after the disaster of 2014.

It will be interesting to see if I'm am close or totally off this year. Can't wait for kickoff.

If what you prediction comes true, the conference will have taken a huge step forward..

Your totals = 73-54 or a 57.48% winning %.

Last Year the AAC was a combined 62-63 (including bowl games) and we lost one of the best teams in Louisville. If you take into account that for each conference game 1 team has to win and 1 to lose and subtract those 88 games out 44 wins / 44 loses we have the conference going 29-10 in our OOC games or almost 75% winning %.

Last year we were 22-23 in OOC. Not sure we are quite ready for that big of a jump.

im start off by saying getting 8 bowl teams and no sub 3 win teams is a bit of a stretch..but i completely disagree that our bottom half is overestimated... they are dramatically underestimated IMO

everyone in our bottom 6 is ranked bottom 80, majority bottom 90

memphis played toe to toe with a top 25 duke last year and should have beaten ucf and had an amazing Dline (on a freshmen qb, return the key players)

temple lost half its game by hail-marys and were in a comfortable postilion to win 6 of the last 7 games when PJ started but just couldnt finish the job (on a freshmen qb and a first year head coach without much experience, best players except wr coming back)

usf- recruiting better than 80% of their opponents (under 1st year head coach last year)
uconn, is coming in on a hot streak winning 3 of their last 4 (all of which where the only 4 games under their new qb, who was a freshmen, and a new qb who comes from a winning culture)

tulsa had a bad year, but were hit with the injury bug and were a top 25 team just 2 years ago

smu- jun jones has never produced a good team but he has never produced a bad one either, the have some nice prospects and june hass bounced back strong from every not so good season he's had

tulane- has shown improvement every single year under the current coach and were a bowl team last year

I think uconn has a great chance to beat byu. They're going to have a lot of players suspended for that game, a lot of starters

(07-18-2014 11:43 AM)UConnHusky Wrote:  I think that you are way off with UConn. They will finish mid-pack this year. The best they will finish is 5th in the league and the worst they will finish is 7th. I fully expect the Huskies to finish above Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, and USF (possible Temple as well).

Nobody gives UConn any respect, which is fine by us UConn fans. We can't wait until all the doubters are proven wrong. I hope that team plays with a chip on its shoulder all year.

Wanna know my rationale? (Probably not, but I don't care...)

1) UConn has a 1st year, 1st time head coach. Who knows how he'll work out, but generally speaking, there is a steep learning curve for Head Coaches learning to run a whole program and having to make game-decisions from the sideline. (Not only that, you hired Bob Diacco, who spent a disastrous year at UC and not many people were sad to see his backside disappearing scuttling out the door as he chased after Brian Kelly to ND... If I saw anything indicative of Diacco at UC, it was an inflexibility, trying to force Joe Tressey's players to play in a defensive scheme they were not at all suited for rather than to coach to the strengths of the players he already had.)

2) Paul Pasquiloni decimated the UConn roster and one recruiting class is nowhere near enough to plug those holes. Sorry.

I said this on the "Predict UConn's schedule" thread... There is not a single game on that schedule I feel comfortable predicting as a "win." UConn probably will not go win-less, but I think it's going to be a long year. You may not like that, but...

For starters you have half the conference only playing 11 games. That tid bit aside the order of finish is as good a guess as any. As and ECU fan I would 7 wins would be mighty disappointing.

(07-18-2014 11:14 AM)True Bearcat Wrote:  Here is how I think the 2014 season will play out.

1. UCF 9-2 They're #1 until proven otherwise. I see them going 3-1 in OOC, and dropping a game in the conference they shouldn't. Big shoes to replace at QB.

2. Cincinnati 9-2 I see them going 3-1 in OOC too with a big win at Miami. Gunner Kiel will come into his own, and will be fun to watch. Although they will probably lose to someone they have no business losing to like they did last year against USF.

3. Houston 9-2 with losses to Cincinnati and UCF. Houston will be 4-0 going into the UCF game, and if they win that it is clear sailing until Cincinnati in final week. COuld be the AAC championship game.

4. East Carolina 7-5 on paper ECU has the toughest schedule in the AAC. Their OOC is very tough with UNC, VA Tech, and South Carolina. Best case scenario is 4-0 worst is 1-3. I'm hoping for the best it would make a bold statement for the AAC, and ECU football. If the worst is to happen I can see ECU with the record I predicted. They will drop two maybe three in AAC. What a welcoming to the conference the Pirates get.

5. Temple 7-5 The Owls impressed me last year with a young QB who makes the defense stay true, and a defense that never gives up. Temple will make a bowl, and as the season goes on teams won't want to see them on their upcoming schedule.

6. Tulane 7-5 The Green Wave have a lot to be excited about this season. I think some of the excitement will translate to a few extra wins.

7. Tulsa 7-5 The Golden Hurricane will bounce back, and be a tough team in their debut season in the AAC.

8. Memphis 6-6 The Tigers will build on the foundation their defense has laid, and will figure out how to score some points this year. Will it be enough to go bowling?

9. USF 5-7 they mystery in Tampa will continue as the Bulls stumble through another season.

10. UCONN 4-7 UCONN offensive woes will continue, and the American will be a tough road for them this year.

11. SMU - 3-8 It will be a long season in Dallas. June Jones may finally be fired after the disaster of 2014.

It will be interesting to see if I'm am close or totally off this year. Can't wait for kickoff.

Re: Bold above

God I hope this comes true.

1. Houston
2. ECU
3. Cincy
4. UCF
5. Temple
6. Memphis
7. USF
8. Tulane
9. Tulsa
10. SMU
11. UConn

Top 6 will be bowl eligable.

(07-18-2014 01:11 PM)FrancisDrake Wrote:  For starters you have half the conference only playing 11 games. That tid bit aside the order of finish is as good a guess as any. As and ECU fan I would 7 wins would be mighty disappointing.

Fixed it for ya. Math isn't a strong point.

7-5 basically means you think we will go 1-4 or 0-5 in these game (or at least I assume): Ucf, cincy, unc, vt, USC. If you see us going 1-4, what other AAC team do you see us losing to? Temple? who out of those 5 do you think we beat?

1. Houston
2. ECU
3. Cincy
4. UCF
5. UConn
6. Tulane
7. USF
8. Memphis
9. Temple
10. SMU
11. Tulsa

(07-18-2014 02:19 PM)True Bearcat Wrote:  

(07-18-2014 01:11 PM)FrancisDrake Wrote:  For starters you have half the conference only playing 11 games. That tid bit aside the order of finish is as good a guess as any. As and ECU fan I would 7 wins would be mighty disappointing.

Fixed it for ya. Math isn't a strong point.

I do think this is going to be a tough conference and I agree with your prognostication of a thick middle group. I think even the teams towards the top have questions. Its going to be a fun season. I hope UCONN has a nice turn around, we need their attendance up. USF too.

Those records are pretty optimistic. Last year the bottom of this conference struggled with FCS and bottom of the barrel FBS opponents.

#1 UCF - Hail to the King, baby
#2 Houston - O'Korn and Greenberry keep DBs up at night
#3 Cincy - Guys please beat both Miamis
#4 ECU - Would be higher, but docked them points for losing to Marshall
#5 Temple - PJ Walker is one of the best QBs in the league
#6 Memphis - Solid on both sides of the ball
#7 Tulane - Bringing back their best team in years, has new stadium mojo
#8 UConn - Became a different team after P.P. was fired
#9 Tulsa - Not sure why they fell apart last year
#10 USF - Guys please don't lose to any FCS teams this year
#11 SMU - They hate their coach, that can't be good for morale

(07-18-2014 02:52 PM)MechaKnight Wrote:  Those records are pretty optimistic. Last year the bottom of this conference struggled with FCS and bottom of the barrel FBS opponents.

#1 UCF - Hail to the King, baby
#2 Houston - O'Korn and Greenberry keep DBs up at night
#3 Cincy - Guys please beat both Miamis
#4 ECU - Would be higher, but docked them points for losing to Marshall
#5 Temple - PJ Walker is one of the best QBs in the league
#6 Memphis - Solid on both sides of the ball
#7 Tulane - Bringing back their best team in years, has new stadium mojo
#8 UConn - Became a different team after P.P. was fired
#9 Tulsa - Not sure why they fell apart last year
#10 USF - Guys please don't lose to any FCS teams this year
#11 SMU - They hate their coach, that can't be good for morale

Switch Tulane and Memphis. Memphis over-performed at times last year while Tulane left some on the table.

I fought the urge to reply for a solid 8 minutes in regards to ECU. You think they are better than where you have them listed, but due to losing a game last season to a team that they won't be playing this year, you dock them a little bit on the upcoming season?

IMO top four are interchangeable. UH with the slight nod on the easier schedule and conference opponents.

Wow, 8 teams bowling? that would be pretty impressive.