Let's Discuss XLance's Theory/Rumor Which Brings Us Full Circle, Almost
Over two years ago when the second coming of the 4 x 16 super-conference theory finally hit the mainstream over 30 years after its conception the first full fledged conceptualization of it had the Big 12 being absorbed by the remaining conferences. Why? It was the one bordered by the Big 10, SEC, and PAC.
Back then the debate centered around the division of the conference. Colorado had just bolted for the PAC, Texahoma rumors were flying, and Nebraska had just departed for Delanyland.
Speculation for the ACC was wild but many Speculators saw the eventual offers going to Connecticut and Cincinnati. They did better, much better. Notre Dame when on board full time would be #15.
When the SEC claimed Texas A&M and Missouri the death of the Big 12 looked like a certainty. It just didn't happen. Why? Nobody including the key members of the Big 12 could agree on where anybody would go. Then with the successes of recent grabs greedy eyes fell upon the ACC and with the departure of Maryland suddenly the bits and pieces of the Big 12 didn't look as appetizing as the juicier parts of the ACC. In comes GOR part 2. Suddenly people were saying realignment was dead. And maybe it is?
One of my first theories on this was that the SEC would move to 16 with either an Oklahoma school and Baylor, or an Oklahoma school and a Kansas school. Since the Big 10 only took AAU programs I felt that the likely pair for them would be Iowa State and Kansas. That idea drew boos and cat calls from the Big 10 crowd, but still if the Big 12 was subdivided who else would they take if they couldn't get Texas?
Hot on the rumors of Texahoma 1 and then Texahoma 2 I felt reasonably sure that Texas at the time might head West. Then came the LHN and suddenly all first blush theories seemed to be out the window.
XLance proposes that the ACC will go to 16 with Notre Dame coming fully on board and Vanderbilt agreeing to move over from the SEC. He feels that the SEC would move to 16 with Baylor, an Oklahoma school, and West Virginia. He further feels that Texas and Texas Tech with two others will move to the PAC. Now given that scenario it comes very closely back to the original speculation (other than the Vanderbilt part).
In the Big 12 / SEC thread I quipped that since that would not really satisfy anyone it might be one way to resolve the dilemma. But let's look at it from another perspective. Relative value. It won't make you happy but it might make some sense when you assume that networks are looking to find some balance between conferences.
Texas to the PAC: Adds to the bottom line of the PAC network and gains ESPN a share of that (per XLance) pie. ESPN gains a percentage of the West coast market. The PAC gets help in distribution and the Texas market profits both the PAC and ESPN. Texas Tech another Texas public finds a P4 permanent home and they form the bridge to Austin. Iowa State heads to the PAC to partner up with Iowa in the PAC/Big 10 partnership which will reemerge. Kansas State moves to the PAC for the same reason as Kansas will be headed to the Big 10. FOX owns Oklahoma's T3 rights. The Sooners head to the Big 10 with Kansas to bolster a sagging football profile, maybe? This is a big risk for Oklahoma. If little brother gets to stay and play locally against Arkansas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, L.S.U. and enjoys the tag of SEC then maybe Oklahoma cuts its recruiting ties to Texas too much even though the RRR becomes a PAC/Big 10 deal and maybe they die the slow painful twisting death that Nebraska finds itself in now.
The SEC picks up Baylor, Oklahoma State/Oklahoma, and West Virginia. These are three non threatening meh moves. All three are either presently or historically decent but not dominant football programs. Baylor helps the academics but the other two don't. What do they do for the SEC? Baylor and Oklahoma State together give the SEC a good enough portion of the DFW market that along with A&M gives the SEC all of East Texas and North Texas as solid markets and carry enough of the rest of the state to count. Oklahoma State does deliver Oklahoma. If the Sooners opt for the Big 10 then the Cowboys and T.Boone stand to pull an Aggie and become a much more dominant player in their home state. If Oklahoma opts for the SEC then Iowa State would likely go to the Big 10 with Kansas and Oklahoma State would be headed to the PAC. This would create a new titanic struggle between A&M and Boomer and Oklahoma State would head into obscurity. West Virginia will need a lot of improvement academically otherwise they tank the academic average of the SEC, especially if Vanderbilt heads to the ACC. The Mountaineers do deliver a passionate if not somewhat destructive fan base. But they give the SEC a presence in Pittsburgh, all of West Virginia, a slither of Southeast Ohio, and part of the D.C. market.
If this transpires nobody is going to be totally happy and nobody is going to be totally bereft of value. Personally looking at it from a network perspective I think the Sooners go Big 10 if this scenario unfolds. I think that only because Boren has not yet stepped down and FOX has their T3.
Assessment: Florida, Texas A&M and Missouri will all be pissed if Vanderbilt leaves for the ACC.
Assessment: CIC proponents will be pissed if Oklahoma becomes a bigger bug in their punch bowl than Nebraska.
Assessment: Clemson and Florida State might be happier with N.D. on in full, but will be pissed at the addition of another Wake Forest / Duke asset to play in Vanderbilt.
Assessment: Stanford and California will be pissed over the academics of Kansas State and Texas Tech. They will be somewhat satisfied with Iowa State and totally satisfied with Texas because the Horns add profit.
Nobody is totally happy.
Predictions, This move will only make the following schools happy in the long run:
Kansas will be happy because they will be where they fit best.
West Virginia will be happy because it is what they wanted anyway.
Baylor will be happy because they keep a 100 year old rivalry and their fans don't have to travel West.
Oklahoma State would be happy because in the SEC they become more than an afterthought.
Iowa State will be happy because they are in.
Kansas State will be happy for the same reason.
The Big Losers will be:
Texas cut off from their former power base suffers the fate of moving West and diminishing.
Oklahoma initially has a giddy academic click but their alumni will grow morose over their slow and steady decline as they are become less of a factor in recruiting Texas and California.
Mike Slive might make a shrewd business move with this, but those three names will not appease the masses of SEC fans who want another helmet school. And even though it might be the most profitable option on the table for the SEC it will never be popular outside of Tuscaloosa which will simply count 3 more potential wins.
T.C.U. because they are out.
Vanderbilt because they will no longer be the top academic school in their conference.
Notre Dame because they lose their independence.
*****************************************************************************************************************
This will help you visualize the theory:
Big 10:
Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma
Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
ACC:
Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Louisville, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
SEC:
Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State
Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Texas A&M
Arkansas, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State
PAC:
Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech
Arizona, Arizona State, Cal Los Angeles, Southern Cal
California, Colorado, Stanford, Utah
Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
Now how could this work? Let's assume that eventually these 4 conferences choose only to play one another. Their Spring games are turned into a preseason game against a local lower level FBS or FCS school and serves as their 7th home game. Each conference plays 9 conference games and 3 against the other conferences.
Texas could play A&M from the SEC, Notre Dame from the ACC, and Oklahoma from the Big 10.
Oklahoma could play Texas from the PAC, Oklahoma State from the SEC, and Florida State from the ACC.
Iowa State plays Iowa from the Big 10, Missouri from the SEC, and another Big 10 school.
Auburn plays Georgia Tech from the ACC who can also play Georgia from the SEC and an old rivalry is renewed.
This kind of scheduling can help to renew lost rivalries and help to keep even OOC games regional. It removes dud tickets for season book holders. It provides higher content for the networks. And with 4 champions as the model for the playoff there is no need to sandbag your schedule anyway.
(This post was last modified: 05-16-2014 01:58 PM by JRsec.)
|