(04-04-2014 12:58 PM)chiefsfan Wrote: (04-04-2014 12:47 PM)Trojan Possum Wrote: Why do people think USA is going to be a pushover this year? I'm expecting a hard fought game in Mobile this year for TROY...
I think Troy has the bigger adjustment to make this year truthfully. USA's schedule is not as favorable as a few others, which is why I think some believe they may fall a bit.
We won 6 games last year. I think that if you look at our schedule
@App, GaSo, GaSt, Troy, @ULL, @Ark State, @Idaho, Tex State should provide us with 6 games where we would be either favored or even money. If we don't stumble, 6 conference wins assumes we hold serve at home and win at App and Idaho. Not seeing much crazy with that prediction. Then we have our OOC schedule (@Kent, Navy, Miss State, @So Carolina). We should beat Kent and should have a decent shot with Navy.
So, I'm thinking 7 to 8 wins and 5 to 6 conference wins plus a bowl would be the most likely outcome. A good season would be 6-2 in conference and 8-4 overall. And while I don't think we'll be favored in Lafayette or Jonesboro or against Mississippi State at home, none of those games would be 'end the world' upsets.
That assumes 3 road wins. But I think we can pull that one off. And beat Troy.
A 6-2 conference record would guarantee a 3rd place finish, which is where the most optimistic punters are predicting. A 5-3 record would probably get us there too.
Our schedule does us no favors. But it is manageable.