(03-30-2014 01:33 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: Our TOTAL suicide rate is pretty much in line with other countries, including several with very low rates of gun deaths overall. Rates of suicide per 100,000 people:
Belgium - 17.0
Finland - 16.0
France - 14.7
Austria 12.8
US - 12.0
Norway - 11.9
UK - 11.8
New Zealand - 11.5
Canada - 11.5
Australia - 10.0
Obviously, a comparable number of people find ways to commit suicide in those countries, they just don't use guns.
I am skeptical of comparisons of things like murder and suicide from one country/culture to another outside of the context of relative comparisons of means/motives. (i.e. accounting for relative number of murders from domestic violence versus organized crime to then draw conclusions on how gun ownership may affect the numbers... your previous discussion of Australia in the context of gun control is one example of why those comparisons may not be useful). Among other complications are that accidental death involving guns may not be counted as suicide and different cultures may count suicides in ways that distort the numbers.
Although there is a certain subjective element to my previous point, I think there are also objective measures of how gun ownership could influence overall suicide rate.
Means Matter Basics | Means Matter | Harvard School of Public Health
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/means-matter/means-matter/ Wrote:Firearms are the most lethal and most common method of suicide in the U.S. More people who die by suicide use a gun than all other methods combined. Suicide attempts with a firearm are almost always fatal, while those with other methods are less likely to kill. Nine out of ten people who survive a suicide attempt do not go on to die by suicide later.
Every U.S. study that has examined the relationship has found that access to firearms is a risk factor for suicides. Firearm owners are not more suicidal than non-firearm owners; rather, their suicide attempts are more likely to be fatal. Many suicide attempts are made with little planning during a short-term crisis period. If highly lethal means are made less available to impulsive attempters and they substitute less lethal means, or temporarily postpone their attempt, the odds are increased that they will survive. Studies in a variety of countries have indicated that when access to a highly lethal and leading suicide method is reduced, the overall suicide rate drops driven by a drop in the restricted method.
Gun ownership causes higher suicide rates, study shows.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_p...shows.html Wrote:So in a new paper published in the International Review of Law and Economics, we studied the relationship between guns and suicide in the U.S. from 2000 to 2009. Using five measures of gun ownership and controlling for other factors associated with suicide, such as mental illness, we consistently found that each 1 percentage-point increase in household gun ownership rates leads to between 0.5 and 0.9 percent more suicides. Or, to put it the other way, a percentage-point decrease in household gun ownership leads to between 0.5 and 0.9 percent fewer suicides.
(03-30-2014 01:33 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: In round numbers, the causes of our 30,000 annual gun deaths would break down something like:
Suicide - 19,000
Gangs/convicted felons - 8,800
Anything that could possibly be construed as an "assault weapon" - 200
Other - 2,000
One would logically infer from the comparable statistics that the suicide rate is related to something that we share in common with other places with comparable suicide rates -- and guns wouldn't be that something. That is a problem that needs to be addressed, without question, but it would appear that it would be more effectively addressed on the suicide side of things and not on the gun side.
You certainly have to make sure you are making apples to apples comparisons (consider health care arguments that neglect infant mortality).
Using the raw numbers where the success rate of suicide using a gun is 100% and success rate of other means is n%, you can expect to reduce the suicide rate by (1-n)*0.90 (using the Harvard rate of how many people make a second attempt ... I will note that this neglects a key factor - someone using a gun really intends to succeed in the moment, whereas someone trying to overdose on no-doze may just be a call for help, but that argument is also mitigated by the premise that guns allow impulsive actions rather than planning it would take for other methods).
If the success rate n is 50%, then you could reduce suicides by 19,000*.50*.90= 8,550.
If the success rate n is 90%, then you could reduce suicides by 19,000*.10*.90= 1,710
According to the
Harvard site, the most successful method of suicide aside from guns has a 70% success rate, and that only accounts for 20% of the numbers studied. By inspection, I'd estimate the overall non-gun success rate to be on the order of 30-40%.
(03-30-2014 01:33 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: The one place where any kind of gun legislation or enforcement would seem to have the greatest potential to improve things would be the gangs/convicted felons category. Registration isn't going to accomplish a thing there, because crooks don't comply with existing laws.
Just by the raw numbers, deaths by suicide are >200% of deaths by murder in gang violence, so that provides greater potential to reduce death rates. Given that strict gun control is less likely to impact criminals than it is law-abiding citizens, a change in the law is more likely to have impact on suicide than on gang violence.
(03-30-2014 01:33 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: What we need to do is twofold:
1. Focus on things that would combat the gang/convicted felon gun violence.
2. Address the issues underlying suicide that we share with other countries with comparable suicide rates.
I absolutely agree on both of these points. Further, I think we'd also agree on the utilitarian argument of whether it's worth sacrificing gun ownership rights to affect change in suicide (no).
I think what this does do is provide an opportunity to address point #2 that if you are facing a crisis or someone in your family is facing a crisis, it may be a good idea to voluntarily surrender your guns to a loved one or trusted friend, or, in the absence of that, a trusted community resource for the duration of said crisis. It may be that having suicide hotlines provide that advice could make a big impact.
edit: I will note that my argument was that the better argument for gun control is to be had when looking at suicides. On the same day as the Newton school shooting, there was a
school massacre in China involving a knife, albeit without the level of fatality. The
original school massacre in the US involved dynamite or other explosives.
edit: recalculated based on 19k as the annual suicide rate.
