Interesting analysis.

Louisville - 53.9% chance
Cincy - 17.5% chance
SMU - 11.5% chance
Memphis 9.7% chance
UConn 7%

Chance of bid thief: 0

Louisville with the best chance since they don't play the home team until potentially the 3rd game.

I would like to think if we played this tournament 10 times we would win it more than just once as Pom says especially since it's here.. I would say we have around a 25% chance of us winning this thing.

We will win this tourney. Book it


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KenPom also makes mention that the "coin flip" was potentially "rigged" in Louisville favor. Anyone else get that feeling from the article?

Either way, Memphis can prove it and turn a lot of heads this week.

(03-10-2014 11:50 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  I would like to think if we played this tournament 10 times we would win it more than just once as Pom says especially since it's here.. I would say we have around a 25% chance of us winning this thing.

Not with the current draw. That's why Memphis and UCONN have such low odds. They have to play each other, then Cincinnati and then Louisville. Meanwhile, Louisville only has to win one tough game to win the championship (I don't consider SMU a tough out on a neutral court). Odds are in their favor.

(03-10-2014 11:50 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  I would like to think if we played this tournament 10 times we would win it more than just once as Pom says especially since it's here.. I would say we have around a 25% chance of us winning this thing.

Don't be surprised if Temple gives Cincinnati fits.

(03-10-2014 11:52 AM)LegolElf Wrote:  KenPom also makes mention that the "coin flip" was potentially "rigged" in Louisville favor. Anyone else get that feeling from the article?

Either way, Memphis can prove it and turn a lot of heads this week.

It's funny that getting the 1 seed makes it a tougher draw.

(03-10-2014 11:51 AM)BIGGESTTIGERJLB Wrote:  We will win this tourney. Book it


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I hope you're right. It would be amazing.

(03-10-2014 11:52 AM)LegolElf Wrote:  KenPom also makes mention that the "coin flip" was potentially "rigged" in Louisville favor. Anyone else get that feeling from the article?

Either way, Memphis can prove it and turn a lot of heads this week.

this logic just seems dumb to me much like thinking the league wants the officials to give UL all the calls. they are the ones leaving afterall. what would the league have to gain by helping them out when they have one foot out the door?

(03-10-2014 11:54 AM)TiminMem23 Wrote:  

(03-10-2014 11:50 AM)memphis mania Wrote:  I would like to think if we played this tournament 10 times we would win it more than just once as Pom says especially since it's here.. I would say we have around a 25% chance of us winning this thing.

Not with the current draw. That's why Memphis and UCONN have such low odds. They have to play each other, than Cincinnati and then Louisville. Meanwhile, Louisville only has to win one tough game to win the championship (I don't consider SMU a tough out on a neutral court). Odds are in their favor.

Yeah but it's on our home floor. 1 out of 10 times? I would think more like 2 out of 10 at least.

UofL has a cake walk in this one...over on the UC board we were all hoping to lose the coin toss grrrrrr

that percentage is probably about right.

If all 3 games were a coin flip, we would have a 12.5% chance to win

I would give us a 58% chance against UConn, a 39% chance against Cincy, and a 50% chance to beat Louisville a 3rd time. That would produce an 11.3% chance

HOWEVER, if you factor the chance we play SMU in the championship, or even Houston, or % goes up.

so I give us about a 15% chance :)

(03-10-2014 11:52 AM)LegolElf Wrote:  KenPom also makes mention that the "coin flip" was potentially "rigged" in Louisville favor. Anyone else get that feeling from the article?

Either way, Memphis can prove it and turn a lot of heads this week.

I read it, and I had no idea what the hell he was trying to say. The AAC wants Louisville to win the tourney? They're leaving next year. Ken lost me on that one.

(03-10-2014 07:40 PM)alcalde Wrote:  that percentage is probably about right.

If all 3 games were a coin flip, we would have a 12.5% chance to win

I would give us a 58% chance against UConn, a 39% chance against Cincy, and a 50% chance to beat Louisville a 3rd time. That would produce an 11.3% chance

HOWEVER, if you factor the chance we play SMU in the championship, or even Houston, or % goes up.

so I give us about a 15% chance :)

That's about right. Cincy and Louisville with the best chances because they are really the only ones to get gimmee games on Thursday. Us, UConn and to a lesser extent SMU have to play a team that could likely beat us/them. I hope the home crowd is strong this weekend for us.

coin flipped rigged?

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(03-10-2014 07:42 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(03-10-2014 07:40 PM)alcalde Wrote:  that percentage is probably about right.

If all 3 games were a coin flip, we would have a 12.5% chance to win

I would give us a 58% chance against UConn, a 39% chance against Cincy, and a 50% chance to beat Louisville a 3rd time. That would produce an 11.3% chance

HOWEVER, if you factor the chance we play SMU in the championship, or even Houston, or % goes up.

so I give us about a 15% chance :)

That's about right. Cincy and Louisville with the best chances because they are really the only ones to get gimmee games on Thursday. Us, UConn and to a lesser extent SMU have to play a team that could likely beat us/them. I hope the home crowd is strong this weekend for us.

Well, the wife and I will be there raising hell for the Tigers! Haven't seen them play since the 2012 Cusa tourney.

(03-10-2014 07:46 PM)fsquid Wrote:  coin flipped rigged?

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Next thing they are going to say the NBA lottery is rigged.

(03-10-2014 07:40 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(03-10-2014 11:52 AM)LegolElf Wrote:  KenPom also makes mention that the "coin flip" was potentially "rigged" in Louisville favor. Anyone else get that feeling from the article?

Either way, Memphis can prove it and turn a lot of heads this week.

I read it, and I had no idea what the hell he was trying to say. The AAC wants Louisville to win the tourney? They're leaving next year. Ken lost me on that one.

They probably wanted Cincinnati to have the 1 seed not realizing that the 1 seed might have a harder time.

Was the coin flipped from the grassy knoll?

(03-10-2014 09:07 PM)GrindForth Wrote:  Was the coin flipped from the grassy knoll?

No, but there was a second flipper on the grassy knoll.