(03-06-2014 11:22 AM)pharaoh0 Wrote: While Obama and the west are dithering and leaderless, Putin just keeps on moving and outmaneuvering Obama. Maybe Obama can find a way to back out of this and save face.
Quote:Crimea residents to decide their Russian or Ukrainian future on March 16
06.03.2014 | Source:
Pravda.Ru
The Supreme Council of the Crimea has set the date for the referendum about the status of the autonomous republic for March 16th, Crimean Vice Prime Minister Rustam Temirgaleiv told reporters.
There will be two questions on the referendum. "The first one is - do you support the incorporation of the Crimea into the Russian Federation. The second one is - do you support the retrieval of the Constitution of the Crimea from 1992," the official said.
According to the text of the Constitution of the Crimea from 1992, the republic is a part of Ukraine and regulates its relations with Ukraine on the bases of agreements.
This ain't on Obama. I know you all hate him, but this is on Merkel and the Brits. He's going strong and willing to hit with sanctions. The Germans and the Brits want to appease. And Turkey is out to lunch.
Here's what to expect
1) Russia will have sham vote. It will show that they want Anschluss
2) No one will recognize the Crimea as a legitimate part of Russia
Here's what SHOULD happen
1) A total quarantine on any airplane or ship touching Crimea without express approval of the Kiev government. That means if S7 or Aeroflot flies a commercial flight into Simferol, then that tail will not be allowed in the EU. This, along with an obvious border closure to the Ukraine, would strangle the Crimean economy, which is completely dependent upon tourism. Do the Europeans have the balls to do it? Doubtful.
2) A Ukrainian default on Russian loans until its property is restored. This can be done without Germany's approval.
3) Ukrainian signing a bilateral military agreement with Ukraine for a naval base in Odessa and an airforce base in Eastern Ukraine. This would cause Russia to throw a severe fit. Not NATO. Just the US. Again, this would allow the US to act without Germany.
4) Include in the US sanctions GERMAN firms with large Russian positions. Make Germany choose between doing business with Putin or the US. This would be a very bold move, but would send a strong signal to Merkel to climb on board.
5) Work with the Eastern European nations that want strong action to form a new alliance, complimentary to NATO that doesn't have Germany or the UK in it. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Georgia would join immediately. Slovakia and Romania would also be interested. This alliance should have two goals. One is military and the other is to encourage complete energy independence from Russia through the building of LNG terminals in Poland, the Baltic states and Romania. We could loan these nations the money to build them too. This wouldn't show immediate results but would bear fruit in a 6 month to 1 year timeframe.
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We aren't going to invade over this. But I think the US needs a different set of allies in Eastern Europe.