Attackcoog
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RE: Left Behind
(01-12-2014 09:38 AM)Side Show Joe Wrote: (01-11-2014 11:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: (01-11-2014 10:49 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote: (01-11-2014 08:46 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote: (01-11-2014 09:46 AM)Side Show Joe Wrote: For now, the AAC and MWC seem to have a slight edge over C-USA on the field. But don't be mistaken. If you look at how the teams that will be in the AAC finished this season, only UCF separated themselves from the top teams in C-USA, and they lose most of their best players. Maybe they can reload. I don't know the team that well. Chances are there will be a drop off. The MWC is also trending down. Boise isn't the team they used to be. Fresno didn't live up to expectations either.
C-USA is not bad. Just like the AAC, 3 of our returning teams finished this season with 9 wins or more. The MWC only had 2 teams do that. As a conference we went 3-3 in our bowl games, posting wins over new BIG10 team Maryland and a blowout of MWC's UNLV, which was our only bowl match-up with the MWC.
When looking at bowl records and assigning them to next seasons line-ups thing look interesting.
C-USA
2-2
Wins- Marshall, North Texas
Loses- Rice, MTSU
AAC
2-3
Wins- #12 UCF, ECU
Loses- Houston, Cincinnati, Tulane
MWC
3-3
Wins- SDSU, Utah State, Colorado State
Loses- Fresno State, Boise State, UNLV
Of all the teams in the 3 conferences, only UCF of the AAC finished the season ranked in the coaches poll, while Cincinnati and ECU received votes. In the MWC Fresno received votes. In C-USA Marshall and North Texas received votes.
I'd say starting next season, any conference could win the G5 spot.
Your assuming that USF, Uconn, Temple, Tulsa are going to remain as bad as they are. Furthermore, conference USA faced absolute jokes compared to what the AAC had in bowl games. Your conference champion got absolutely blown out by a bad SEC team. The Sun Belt, MWC, MAC, and CUSA are close to each other. The AAC is going to be more on the level of the Big 10 and ACC when they get their feet wet.
I'm not assuming anything. I'm pointing out the current reality of what the AAC will be dealing with starting next season. Many of the programs that will be paying in the AAC next season are not of the same quality as they have been in the past. Could they get better by next season? Sure, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Aside from the UCF win over Baylor, I don't see a great difference in the quality of bowl wins by the teams that will be in both conferences next season. I doubt the media and opinion makers do either. Rice and Houston both got beat down by SEC teams, and I don't think Houston is that much better then Rice. When they play this season Houston only won the game by 5 points. Actually, after the UCF win, ECU had the best bowl performance of the teams that will be in the AAC next season, but they couldn't win the eastern division of C-USA this year.
C-USA
W- Marshall 31 Maryland (ACC) 20- Military Bowl
W- North Texas 36 UNLV (MWC) 14 Heart of Dallas Bowl
L- Rice 7 Miss State (SEC) 44- Liberty Bowl
L- Middle Tennessee State University 6 Navy (Ind.) 24- Armed Forces Bowl
AAC
W- UCF 52 Baylor (BIG12) 42- Fiesta Bowl
W- ECU 37 Ohio (MAC) 20- Beef O' Brady's Bowl
L- Cincinnati 17 North Carolina (ACC) 39- Belk Bowl
L- Houston 24 Vanderbilt (SEC) 41- BBVA Compass Bowl
L- Tulane 21 University of Louisiana- Lafayette (Sun Belt) 24- New Orleans Bowl
Saying that the new AAC will be closer to the Big10 or ACC seems like a very large assumption based on the facts. The great thing is we will all find out where each conference stands in August. Based on what I've seen from the teams that will be in the various G5 conferences next season, I like C-USA's chances at the access bowl. I think they are as good as any.
The difference between Houston and Rice says a lot about the conferences. Houston beat Rice and came in 4th in the AAC. Rice won CUSA.
We know the SEC is a very strong conference, and no team out of C-USA or the AAC would fair well in those bowl. Again, we are talking about the teams that will be in the AAC next season. In those standings Houston finishes behind ECU, which couldn't win their division.
AAC
1. UCF (12-1)- loses most of their players, including their QB
2. ECU (10-3)- finished 3rd in C-USA
3. Cincinatti (9-4)- lost their bowl to the same North Carolina team ECU beat
4. Houston (8-5)- dominated by an SEC team, just like Rice
5. Tulane (7-6)- beaten by ULL in their bowl game
C-USA
1. Rice (10-4)- dominated by an SEC team just like Houston
2. Marshal (10-4)- beat ECU for their division title
3. North Texas (9-4)
4. MTSU (8-5)
5. WKU (8-4)- beat Navy, and Arkansas St., but ASU went to Go Daddy Bowl.
6. UTSA (7-5)- still in transition, but beat Tulane
7. FAU (6-6)- 2-1 versus future AAC teams
I really don't see much difference between the conferences.
You keep saying things that are wrong and presenting them as fact. Rice played a SEC team and lost 41-7. Yes, Houson also lost by a lopsided score to an SEC school--but at the end of the 3rd quarter the Houston-Vandy game was tied 24-24. Houston also played thier bowl game without their offensive coordinator/QB coach and thier offensive line coach (both offered promotions elsewhere). So Houston, the 4th place finisher in the AAC, not only beat Rice head-to-head---it also out performed Rice vs a similar opponent despite losing major coaching components. Houston has a very young group and virtually returns the entire team next year. They will be better next year. You said UCF loses almost everyone--actually, they return most everyone---including 6 injured defensive starters who didn't even play in the Fiesta Bowl. I agree that losing Bortles and Johnson will hurt.
I'm sure CUSA will have several 9-12 game winners next year--but the rest of the 14 teams will be dreadful. To an extent, the AAC also has a bad bottom. UConn and Temple were terrible. Memphis and USF at least showed signs of life.
Look---im sure CUSA will fill its bowls, but the bowl qualified teams that come from the bottom 10 teams in CUSA---they are getting the vast majority of their bowl qualifing wins over other bottom 10 CUSA schools. That has much more to do with the fact that somebody HAS to win when two bad teams play one another than with CUSA being a deep league. Tulane will struggle to get bowl qualified next year. Would UTSA be bowl qualified in the AAC? Probably not--especially since they lose their solid Sr QB. I think ECU will find the AAC is way tougher than the schedule they had in CUSA. Basically, CUSA next year is Marshall, Rice, and N Texas now that ECU has left.
Look, if your point is we are not a P5 level league, I agree. We are not a P5 league top to bottom. Thats not really a question anymore. The question is--are we significantly better than CUSA and is our champ capable of competing with power conference schools? I do believe that is true. Is it harder to be undefeated in the AAC than in CUSA? I also believe that is true and I think the selection committee will be smart enough to recognize that fact.
(This post was last modified: 01-12-2014 12:04 PM by Attackcoog.)
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