(12-03-2013 01:05 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: Now that I know that the money is split evenly, I fear that if we don't go Liberty, we are bound for Hawaii.
Tulane already accepted to NO
UNT logical for Dallas
ECU/MTSU to Military/Bahamas
FAU to St Pete
Am I missing anything?
My problem with this is the match-up more than the location
You are missing a few things:
(1) No Bahamas until 2014. CUSA has 6 bowl tie-ins this year (Liberty, New Orleans, HOD, Military, St. Pete, Hawaii).
(2) CUSA has 8 bowl-eligible teams but only 6 bowl tie-ins (though some have mentioned that UTSA needs to petition). Regardless, there are more CUSA teams than there are guaranteed bowl spots. This means at least 1 CUSA team goes into the pool of teams looking to fill open bowl spots. As you can see below, there are approximately 16 bowl-eligible teams that will be looking to fill only 3 or 4 open bowl spots!
Bowl-eligible teams without guaranteed tie-in (conference has more bowl-eligible teams than bowl tie-ins):
SEC - none
Big 12 - none
Big Ten - none
Pac-12 - 2 teams (maybe 1 if they send 2 teams to BCS games)
ACC - 3 teams (unlikely to send 2 to BCS)
Independents - 2 teams (Notre Dame & BYU, Navy already committed to Armed Forces)
American - none
MWC - 1 team
CUSA - 1 team (maybe 2 if UTSA petitions and is granted)
MAC - 3 teams guaranteed (maybe 4 if N. Illinois is not in BCS)
Sun Belt - 4 teams (maybe 5 if S. Alabama beats ULL)
Bowls with open spots (conference has more bowl tie-ins than eligible teams):
SEC - none (maybe 1 if they send 2 teams to BCS games)
Big 12 - guaranteed 1 (maybe 2 if they send 2 teams to BCS games)
Big Ten - guaranteed 1 (maybe 2 if they send 2 teams to BCS games)
Pac-12 - none
ACC - none
American - probably 1 (maybe 2 if Rutgers loses to South Florida, unlikely zero as that would require SMU beating UCF)
MWC - none
CUSA - none
MAC - none
Sun Belt - none
Teams like FAU and San Jose St. have to be a little concerned about staying home, and the lower MAC & Sun Belt teams seem to have no chance. For instance, just glanced at the 2 projections from posts #213 and #214 above. Projection in #213 leaves Syracuse and FAU out while projection in #214 leaves Oregon State, Washington State, Pittsburgh, and San Jose State out. This is due to the ACC (11 of 14) and Pac-12 (9 of 12) producing a lot of bowl-eligible teams this year.