The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
Picture this: It’s November, 2021 and Texas AD Steve Patterson is sitting at his desk contemplating the future. He’s managed to return Texas to football prominence but his biggest challenge now is what to do when the Big 12 media agreements and grant of rights expire in about 3½ years in 2025.
On his desk is a consultant’s report laying out the financial situation. The B1G has almost doubled its per team payout over the last 8 years as a result of renegotiating their media deals in 2017 and the continued success of the BTN. Likewise, the SEC has increased its revenues as the SEC network grows. Both conferences are now well ahead of the Big 12 per team payout. To make matters worse, the report quotes network sources as indicating that the next Big 12 media deal will not significantly raise the compensation because the Big 12 brings only one national game (Texas – Oklahoma) to the table and no championship game. That, and being still without a cable network, means the Big 12 may not be able to come close to matching the B1G and SEC payouts in the future.
The other Big 12 teams have seen the report too, and those with options have begun exploring them. Kansas has been talking to the B1G of course. Oklahoma has been talking to both the B1G and SEC. Oklahoma State and West Virginia have each been talking to the SEC in the hope of going with Oklahoma, or going together as a pair if Oklahoma goes to the B1G. Patterson thinks he might be able to get them all to stay and keep the Big 12 conference together if he expands the LHN into a conference network, but he also thinks he’d need to guarantee at least OK, OK St and Kansas a payout for the first 5 years or so – and the payout would have to come from Texas’ revenues.
On Patterson’s desk are a few phone messages to return. The first is from a network executive who has been pushing the idea of an 8 team playoff, which seems to be gaining momentum. Each conference champ would be included, but the problem is that the SEC, B1G and Pac 12 are objecting to giving the Big 12 an automatic entry. They say only Texas or Oklahoma might deserve an automatic bid but without a conference championship game, an automatic bid makes their path to the playoffs too easy compared to the other conference champs. The networks are floating the idea of having only 4 power conferences, and taking both the champ and runner up to fill the 8 team field. They also see it as a way to finally force Notre Dame into a conference so the networks can feed off the ND revenue.
The next message is from the Notre Dame athletic director, who is pushing Texas to go independent. The network execs have told him that the 8 team playoff is a done deal and ND needs to pick a conference or be left out of the playoffs. The ND athletic director thinks that if Texas also went independent, both could hold out against the networks and other conferences and the powers that be would have to find a way to allow ND and Texas access to the playoffs. ND has suggested that the four conference champs get automatic bids and a selection committee picks the other four.
He also has a message from the B1G Commissioner. The B1G would extend an offer to Texas, but it is non-committal about taking any other Big 12 schools. The B1G would consider taking Kansas or Oklahoma but the conference will also look at non-Big 12 schools for the 16th spot. Apparently the B1G still thinks it has as shot at ND as the 16th team. To sweeten the deal, the B1G has offered Texas a lucrative buyout to acquire the LHN. The LHN would become part of the BTN and concentrate on the western conference B1G members.
Patterson also has a couple numbers he asked his assistant to get. The first is the Pac 12 Commissioner’s number. Patterson wants to renew discussions about Texas, Tech, Oklahoma and OK State joining the Pac 12. He’d also like them to take two other teams, Kansas and KState or KState and Iowa State if Kansas went to the Big 10. For political reasons, he may need to push for Baylor and maybe TCU instead, but he doesn’t think the Pac 12 will want 3 Texas members.
Patterson also has the number for a high powered Texas firm with contacts at several ACC schools, but he’s not sure what to ask them to do. If there really will be only 4 power conferences, then the ACC and Big 12 are on the bubble. He’s thinking about trying to keep the Big 12 together by raiding the ACC when its GOR expires. The Big 12 would look to add 4 ACC teams and target FSU, Miami, GTech, Clemson and VTech. If less than 4 came, he would try to backfill with other teams like USF, UCF or Cincinnati. He thinks a raid has a low probability of success, so instead he’s thinking about asking the ACC to explore a conference merger, with Texas and 7 other schools joining with UNC and 7 other southern ACC schools to create a new 16 team conference.
The last number Patterson has is the number for the SEC Commissioner. He’s not sure what to do with that one. Call it or burn it are the two options he’s considering.
The only person he’s not calling is the Big 12 Commissioner because, of course, he’ll do whatever Texas tells him to do.
So what should Patterson do?
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