I almost put this up in the spin room to talk about the overall future of education, i.e. predicting a significant rise in vocational/technical pursuits that will have long term repercussions on the labor market and viability of a number of schools in the future. But this could also be used as a launch point to discuss why the P5 vs G5 divide may be more tangible than people think it is. Articles like this reinforces the notion that conference affiliation is a lot more than just sports shown on TV.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10...NewsSecond

This is all small pototoes compared to what the next generation will have to deal with.

Just wait until the robots start doing all the manual labor and AI starts supassing human inteligence. China will not be able to compete with cheap robot labor. College educated humans will not be able to compete with super computers.

But on the plus side, medical science will progress to the point where humans can live forever, just we won'[t hve anything to do because the machines will be doing all the work.

(11-22-2013 03:18 PM)goofus Wrote:  This is all small pototoes compared to what the next generation will have to deal with.

Just wait until the robots start doing all the manual labor and AI starts supassing human inteligence. China will not be able to compete with cheap robot labor. College educated humans will not be able to compete with super computers.

But on the plus side, medical science will progress to the point where humans can live forever, just we won'[t hve anything to do because the machines will be doing all the work.

Its time to go to a 30 hour workweek to increase employment IMO.

Where you attended college is part of your socio-economic dog tag and papers. It's part of our class system in the US, although we don't like to admit we have classes in the US.

(11-22-2013 05:39 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  Where you attended college is part of your socio-economic dog tag and papers. It's part of our class system in the US, although we don't like to admit we have classes in the US.

But they are not rigid. You are not born into a class and stuck there for life. People can move up, and yes, people can move down too. People can use college to move up as one option.

the other new dymanic is how cmany college kids are graduating today and finding that their degree is not worth the investment.

The real question what do people do that don't have the academic skills to better themselves. Opportunites are somewhat limited.

The key conclusion is there has to be some alternative to a college degree that will maintain a middle class because college is not for everyone.

(11-22-2013 05:39 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  Where you attended college is part of your socio-economic dog tag and papers. It's part of our class system in the US, although we don't like to admit we have classes in the US.

True. Where you went to college becomes less relevant once you get past the age of 35 though.

It becomes more about what neighborhood you live in and where you vacation at. What kind of suits you are wearing to work. Saddle Brook or Jos A. Banks?

(11-22-2013 05:50 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(11-22-2013 05:39 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  Where you attended college is part of your socio-economic dog tag and papers. It's part of our class system in the US, although we don't like to admit we have classes in the US.

But they are not rigid. You are not born into a class and stuck there for life. People can move up, and yes, people can move down too. People can use college to move up as one option.

the other new dymanic is how cmany college kids are graduating today and finding that their degree is not worth the investment.

The real question what do people do that don't have the academic skills to better themselves. Opportunites are somewhat limited.

The key conclusion is there has to be some alternative to a college degree that will maintain a middle class because college is not for everyone.

The Obama plan to restrict federal aid offered by schools who don't graduate students would be a great start. There are way to many people going to a four year college in this country that don't have the preparation to make it out of high school.

Too many colleges have profiteered off a system where they accept everyone and graduate only a third in order to make money.

Considering that there are very few jobs left that can be outsourced, I think you will eventually see the minimum wage doubled to push part of the low wage work force outside the spectrum of wages that allow for government assistance and more into the category of earning enough to pay taxes. Then a couple years of hoping the higher wages spur spending creating more service jobs.

I think education is going to have some dramatic changes. For example Arkansas State has created their Technical Institute at one of the two year campuses and it awards various technical certifications. They have expanded branches to most if not all of two year campus sites and recently the Tech Institute signed a contract with a large manufacturer to handle all of their employee training.

I think what you will see happening will be employers who need skilled and semi-skilled workers will move out of the business of directly training workers and instead refer candidates to training programs run by private or public education outfits and then hire for those jobs from the pool of students that complete the training.

It is going to require a rethink of how we do a lot of stuff. For example unemployment compensation will probably become a system of a stipend plus education benefit with a very limited period of stipend outside of educational activity. You will probably see some fields like nursing and many med tech fields feature partnerships between hospitals and educational institutions with positions becoming more certification oriented than associates or bachelor's oriented to cut cost and hospitals agreeing to subsidize loans of new hires or selecting students for free or reduced tuition if they agree to work for the employer for a certain amount of time.

(11-22-2013 06:10 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Considering that there are very few jobs left that can be outsourced, I think you will eventually see the minimum wage doubled to push part of the low wage work force outside the spectrum of wages that allow for government assistance and more into the category of earning enough to pay taxes. Then a couple years of hoping the higher wages spur spending creating more service jobs.

It is going to require a rethink of how we do a lot of stuff. For example unemployment compensation will probably become a system of a stipend plus education benefit with a very limited period of stipend outside of educational activity. You will probably see some fields like nursing and many med tech fields feature partnerships between hospitals and educational institutions with positions becoming more certification oriented than associates or bachelor's oriented to cut cost and hospitals agreeing to subsidize loans of new hires or selecting students for free or reduced tuition if they agree to work for the employer for a certain amount of time.

Growth in the minimum wage will help spur demand for more services jobs and that is where its heading slowly at different rates in at the state and local level. The city of Seattle for instance has a movement trying raise the minimum to 15 dollars an hour and also a millionaires tax. The lack of good paying middle class wages in the service economy is forcing the issue.

Unemployment Insurance claimants already qualify for WPA funding to pay for additional certifications and training in addition to their weekly benefit. The problem is many are unaware of the assistance since the money isn't channeled to the unemployment agency. Its distributed often from federal sources to city governments for disbursement via a city agency.

I was talking with a friend last night who met with the deans at Southern Indiana yesterday and was saying how they've merged their education department in with the college of engineering and applied sciences to require more STEM based courses for their teaching graduates. They want to keep up with industry on the skills required by the IT industry for graduates. The problem is its not skills they want anymore like java programming that can be organized well into an academic (conceptual) class but very specific tool sets that you wouldn't necessarily use unless a particular company is working with that product.

I think the For-Profit training providers are so far ahead of the curve that universities will never be able adjust fast enough. The amount of entry level positions is dwindling too as companies would rather invest in veterans that have shown their commitment to the field.

(11-22-2013 05:50 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(11-22-2013 05:39 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  Where you attended college is part of your socio-economic dog tag and papers. It's part of our class system in the US, although we don't like to admit we have classes in the US.

But they are not rigid. You are not born into a class and stuck there for life. People can move up, and yes, people can move down too. People can use college to move up as one option.

the other new dymanic is how cmany college kids are graduating today and finding that their degree is not worth the investment.

The real question what do people do that don't have the academic skills to better themselves. Opportunites are somewhat limited.

The key conclusion is there has to be some alternative to a college degree that will maintain a middle class because college is not for everyone.

You don't have to do anything to maintain a middle class - it is always there. The question is what do the middle class folks have? Do the middle live in a 170K house or in a mobile home? Does the middle have two cars or one?

The middle quintile is that point where 41 goes to 60 - period. Nothing changes the middle quintile. What changes is the economic affluence of the middle quintile.

I take the Annals of the American Geographer and several other publications of that sort related to Urbanism, Planning, etc., and the emerging trend of the last 20 or so years is the reduction of social mobility in the United States - essentially where you are born is where you will stay. I presented a paper on this topic as it related to schools in NC. Unfortunately for the vast majority in the US, you are born into the quintile into which you will live, until you begin to age and your income loss drops you down.

I forgot where I read it but about 80% of Americans think they are middle class.

The middle quintile of Americans have an average household income of about 50K - so for a two parents working they are making about $12-$13 dollars and hour. At 50K your mortgage payment is at best is about $1000 and that gets you a $170K home. This is the middle quintile - the middle class.

The bottom quintile is about $12K, the second quintile is about 28K - 20% of American households are getting by on about 12K a year.

The fourth quintile have a househould income of about 80K a year - At this rate, you can afford a house that's around $300K. Almost all these folks think they are middle class - they are not. Cost of attendance programs open Ivy League and top private schools to these kids.

The fifth quintile IIRC are around $175 K and up. They can fully afford to put their kids through B - 5 schools.

Increasingly the population make of the vast majority of kids in the SEC, ACC, B10, P12, and B12 have parents at the upper end of the fourth or in the fifth quintile. Mobility among this group is an illusion for the most part because there is no mobility up from the fifth quintile, and to go down usually means you are a screw up and your parents did not take the steps necessary to plan for your future.

Getting out of the bottom quintile is usually through death. The bottom quintile is often the elderly poor in the last decades or so of life. Death is the only door out. For children born into this quintile, the effects of poverty on them are often permanent as they are disproportionally exposed to drugs, bad environments, crime, etc. Death and the penitentiary are the two most likely exits.

The only real movement in this country comes between the 2nd quintile and the middle quintile and here people tend to be dependent on a wage structure that is no longer secure.

In America we make a big deal about the few who hit the lottery and who seemingly overcome the odds to make it big, but they are few and far between. America for most Americans runs a great deal on the lottery principle - the chance exists to move up, but the odds are not in your favor.

Over the last 40 years, almost all the new wealth generated in the US has been collected and concentrated in the top quintile, indeed the top decile. This can not be sustained as it begins to violate the basic social compact which is "I wont break into your home and rob you as long as I have a honest means to have a decent living".

This is mirrored in Ivy League Schools and Schools like Duke, Davidson, Vandy, Emory, etc. that do not need to charge tuition to the students. Indeed their cost of attendance programs mean that the average student pays less than 40 cents on the dollar at places like Duke and it can be cheaper to attend Duke or Emory, than UNC, or NC State if your parents income is under 50K. This aggregation of wealth among certain institutions of higher education will exist even after the education bubble bursts.

Over 7 time in my life, I have been able to stick my foot into the door of organizations on nothing other than "oh he graduated from UNC, that's just like Florida, Vandy, Duke, Ohio State, and Oregon". My social pedigree was calculated and that got me in the door, then when the found out I had other degrees and especially one from NC State they said - "oh well we know he can work too" as I was also given the attributes also associated with STEM cow colleges.

My children will not fall below me, because I know what not to allow them to major in and where not to bother getting a degree from. They are where they are. I doubt they can get into the 5th quintile and stay there. I am not Ivy League, they will not be Ivy League. In their best earning years they will cross that threshold, but staying there without multi-generational wealth - that's tough. Perhaps they will marry it, but again, the real pressure is to marry in your quintile.

Perhaps I am just old and jaded, but I've not seen real upward socio-economic mobility in the US in about 30 years. Perhaps it never existed, perhaps the rising tide just floated all the boats higher and that middle quintile just was richer for a number of decades until the tide receeded.

A good plumber can charge whatever he wants and work whenever he wants.

The US fares poorly on economic mobility.

The sports issue is that the cost of attending events has risen faster than the rate of inflation in most areas (pro leagues and much of Division I).

The question is will people hold as much interest in sports if they are unable to attend sports events.

I couldn't read this article because I don't have a subscription, but this topic is really fascinating.

I've seen firsthand how individuals involved in "trade" type jobs or industries valuing this type of scientific/technical/mechanical knowledge as opposed to college degrees have been able to do better financially than a lot of my peers with post graduate degrees. Of course, there are opportunities to combine the two.

I'm an attorney. I went to law school and have an MBA. If I had it all to do over again, I may have considered a two year degree in something else. My brother has a bachelor's degree in journalism and is a fantastic writer. He's going back to school for nuclear technology and will probably be able to land a job in that field and make much more than me out of the gate and probably over the course of his career. I was sweating bullets to get a job in my chosen field.

It's really amazing how life works. If I had it all to do over again, I may have gone his route from the get-go. It's hard to say, though, because I love what I do.

(11-22-2013 08:25 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  Over 7 time in my life, I have been able to stick my foot into the door of organizations on nothing other than "oh he graduated from UNC, that's just like Florida, Vandy, Duke, Ohio State, and Oregon". My social pedigree was calculated and that got me in the door, then when the found out I had other degrees and especially one from NC State they said - "oh well we know he can work too" as I was also given the attributes also associated with STEM cow colleges.

My children will not fall below me, because I know what not to allow them to major in and where not to bother getting a degree from. They are where they are. I doubt they can get into the 5th quintile and stay there. I am not Ivy League, they will not be Ivy League. In their best earning years they will cross that threshold, but staying there without multi-generational wealth - that's tough. Perhaps they will marry it, but again, the real pressure is to marry in your quintile.

Perhaps I am just old and jaded, but I've not seen real upward socio-economic mobility in the US in about 30 years. Perhaps it never existed, perhaps the rising tide just floated all the boats higher and that middle quintile just was richer for a number of decades until the tide receeded.

Good posting.

A big part of the problem in this country in addressing the social mobility issue is the poor leadership coming on this subject from politicians and within state departments of education.

You're talking about people that aren't exactly the best minds in the country making policy that effects basically everybody. They make decisions to limit the amount of PhD programs in a state when that is exactly the type of expertise this country needs to have.

I can understand limiting law schools as there is already a law school for everyone and medical schools should be in certain regions to be in leveraged benefit but all other graduate work should be open season to compete for. If this lowers the requirements to get into these programs that's fine. Taking a college grad with a 3.2 vs. a 3.5 into a PhD program isn't going to devalue the field like many egotistical academics think.

The demand on the market isn't for 75k a year run of the mill college graduate. Its for the 175k a year executive performer which there is a shortage of because the educational system discourages all but the brightest 1% from continuing education to the level that's needed to perform effectively.

The economic problem is painted High School students aren't getting id done by taking enough science classes. A bunch of 15 and 16 y/o are to blame. The real problem is the 25 and 26 y/o working haven't taken advanced research methods and don't know how to pull anything together when called to do so.

(11-22-2013 09:33 PM)ndlutz Wrote:  I couldn't read this article because I don't have a subscription, but this topic is really fascinating.

I've seen firsthand how individuals involved in "trade" type jobs or industries valuing this type of scientific/technical/mechanical knowledge as opposed to college degrees have been able to do better financially than a lot of my peers with post graduate degrees. Of course, there are opportunities to combine the two.

That is how its always been. There is something to be said for prestige over money. For many lawyers its about getting a lofty sounding job, buying a rolex and driving a Mercedes because that is what everyone else in the firm is doing.

Socialization is an important factor. Do you want to pick up a technical certification and work in a male dominated industry where everyone is hunting and fishing or do you want to be somewhere with a lot of highly educated females?

If I had to do it again I would have gone into Medicine. Its very much a co-ed field and plenty of job options at all levels of training. Job security is excellent throughout the field.

(11-22-2013 08:26 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  A good plumber can charge whatever he wants and work whenever he wants.

True but can he date everyone he wants?

My Dad, Uncles and grandfathers were coal miners in Southwestern Pennsylvania.

My Dad had to drop out of school at age 13 to work as a "breaker boy" in the coal mines to help support his Mom, Dad (both Irish immigrants) and his ten siblings.

My Dad and uncles were able to live comfortably in retirement mainly on Social Security and Federal Black Lung Benefits.

My Mom always told us as kids that we were "upper middle class", lol.

After attending family outing as a kid (about age seven or eight) and seeing a Dad with a face smashed by a slate fall, an Uncle missing half his right foot, another Uncle missing a thumb and having his back wired from another slate fall/cave in, a grandfather with a missing left hand and another Uncle carrying around portable oxygen because of Black Lung (these were injuries from the old paid by the load, "Sixteen Ton" days), I swore then and there to get an education and never go into the coal mines or steel mills as an adult.

I was the first member of my extended family to ever attend college.

I was able to obtain Federal and state grants to pay for undergrad tuition and Federally backed Guaranteed Student Loans for law school tuition.

I worked pretty hard on road construction and steel mill labor gang jobs during the summers and in Federal Work Study student jobs during the school year in undergrad to pay for room and board.

I opened up and locked up the law school for spending money and worked as a law clerk during law school.

I drove alone a thousand miles to a place where I had never been before and did not know anyone in order to attend law school. It was big culture shock for a Pennsylvania kid to move to South Louisiana.

The reason I did that is because LSU Law School's out of state tuition was very low in 1983 because of the oil boom. It was one of the few law schools I could afford to attend.

I had to compete in law school with third generation legacy kids, sons/daughters of current law professors, lawyers and politicians. I was some Yankee kid with no connections.

Even though I am an attorney, my kids went to public schools. I did not want "elitst" kids who felt privileged, forgot their roots or didn't know how to deal with other cultures and people.

I have never owned a Rolex in my life, although I did lease a Mercedes once for three years. I look at being a lawyer as a job, a paycheck. I am not big into the "socialization" aspect of it. I am a long time partner in a 40 lawyer firm and make a pretty good living. I have been a member of the same firm for 25 years. I was one of three lawyers who was there when the Firm began and am still there.

I still consider myself a blue collar, Yankee, Catholic guy despite living in the Deep South for over thirty years. I still recall where I came from and who I am, what my family heritage is.

I was the only Catholic in my mostly Southern Baptist law firm for years. I was asked to weekly Bible study every week every Wednesday at lunch for about five years. I always said "Hell, no". Square peg, round hole. They finally gave up and have not asked me for the past twenty years.

I got ahead because I was willing to litigate and do any type of litigation practice needed (and had the ability to do so) not by "socialization". That, and my sense of humor, lol.

My colleagues looked at me like "You don't love your kids" when I told them that I would not put them in private school. I had the crap beat out of me by nuns who looked and fought like Vikings as a kid. I am not in favor of private primary and high schools. I believe in supporting the local public schools.

My kids met up with their kids at the same place...LSU.... and outperformed many of them.

Two sons are engineers. My daughter is in nursing school.

All attended college using TOPPS (Louisiana pays tuition for all residents who attend a state school and meet certain minimum academic requirements).

You may guess that I am in favor of such governments programs, particularly on the Federal level. They allowed three generations of my family to survive and move upward, combined with hard work and the proper motivation.

Having utilizing them to climb the ladder, I am not in favor of pulling that ladder up after me. I have never bitched about paying taxes one time in my life and would be willing to pay more. I am not exactly a big "Tea Party" guy. That would be hypocritical, in my opinion.

There are many ways to skin a cat and get ahead in this world. It is important not to overgeneralize and assume certain things in advance.

I went from my Dad's status as a laborer making very little money to a lawyer making a pretty damn good living in a single generation. Hopefully, my children collectively do better than I did.

Education is still the key ingredient to move up for lower class kids with no family, social connections.

(11-22-2013 11:25 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I have never owned a Rolex in my life, although I did lease a Mercedes once for three years. I look at being a lawyer as a job, a paycheck. I am not big into the "socialization" aspect of it. I am a long time partner in a 40 lawyer firm and make a pretty good living. I have been a member of the same firm for 25 years. I was one of three lawyers who was there when the Firm began and am still there.

I still consider myself a blue collar, Yankee, Catholic guy despite living in the Deep South for over thirty years. I still recall where I came from and who I am, what my family heritage is.

I was the only Catholic in my mostly Southern Baptist law firm for years. I was asked to weekly Bible study every week every Wednesday at lunch for about five years. I always said "Hell, no". Square peg, round hole. They finally gave up and have not asked me for the past twenty years.

I got ahead because I was willing to litigate and do any type of litigation practice needed (and had the ability to do so) not by "socialization". That, and my sense of humor, lol.

Excellent response Terry. I didn't mean to ruffle any feathers with my socialization comment as much as I thought the comments before were looking at professions strictly on the basis of money without considering the intangibles.

To a small firm lawyer in Alabama, that Nuclear Technology certificate to make 110,000 sounds pretty good until you realize you'll be going to work every day in a Nuclear Protection Suit like Homer Simpson.

If you want to make more money do the work necessary to start you're own firm. I have an Uncle who did it Dallas and now he's renovating the top of a skyscraper where his office is into home....

(11-22-2013 06:10 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Considering that there are very few jobs left that can be outsourced, I think you will eventually see the minimum wage doubled to push part of the low wage work force outside the spectrum of wages that allow for government assistance and more into the category of earning enough to pay taxes. Then a couple years of hoping the higher wages spur spending creating more service jobs.

I think education is going to have some dramatic changes. For example Arkansas State has created their Technical Institute at one of the two year campuses and it awards various technical certifications. They have expanded branches to most if not all of two year campus sites and recently the Tech Institute signed a contract with a large manufacturer to handle all of their employee training.

I think what you will see happening will be employers who need skilled and semi-skilled workers will move out of the business of directly training workers and instead refer candidates to training programs run by private or public education outfits and then hire for those jobs from the pool of students that complete the training.

It is going to require a rethink of how we do a lot of stuff. For example unemployment compensation will probably become a system of a stipend plus education benefit with a very limited period of stipend outside of educational activity. You will probably see some fields like nursing and many med tech fields feature partnerships between hospitals and educational institutions with positions becoming more certification oriented than associates or bachelor's oriented to cut cost and hospitals agreeing to subsidize loans of new hires or selecting students for free or reduced tuition if they agree to work for the employer for a certain amount of time.

Larger hospitals in Georgia are already doing this, and have been for about 6 years. The nursing aspect is more work / study beyond the second year (LPN). For X-ray techs and other technical positions it is more as you describe.

Automation is going to hit the classroom next. Georgia is in the second year of an at home experiment utilizing classes developed at Chapel Hill. The cost per student is a shade over $8,000 dollars less per student per year versus the classroom experience, but it only works for self starters. So I disagree with the assessment about outsourcing. Technically automation is not outsourcing, but the net result will be the same. And, the fields that can experience automation are growing in number every year. Even in retail the move will be to even more of the Amazon type of experience. Walmart is in the fourth year of increasing this kind of service. I expect to see grocery shopping more broadly done on line at some point. Two paycheck households will place an order over the internet to their local grocery stores who will then debit their accounts. Benefit perks will be loaded for reduction of the final costs base upon patronage (no mail outs). Check outs will be reduced, stocking becomes less important, space utilization goes way up for the stores, and bags are eliminated. Grocery orders will be boxed and labeled for pick up at a specified time and available at a pick up window or door. Law enforcement is already moving toward more automation through surveillance. In retail the cost of maintaining a traditional storefront costs you more in merchandising, staffing, signage and theft, not to mention issues with parking. We are just on the cusp of sweeping change in retail. So, just as I pointed out the shifts coming in education over a year ago with many disagreeing with my statements, the change to our society is just beginning. The risks of this shift are as of yet undetermined but certainly will be the same as all things tied to the internet and the electrical grid. I see some big pluses and some rather large risks. P.S. I don't think I'd be investing heavily in commercial real estate as it has likely peaked. It will still be in demand but how it is used and how much that is required may change significantly.

(11-23-2013 12:17 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-22-2013 11:25 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I have never owned a Rolex in my life, although I did lease a Mercedes once for three years. I look at being a lawyer as a job, a paycheck. I am not big into the "socialization" aspect of it. I am a long time partner in a 40 lawyer firm and make a pretty good living. I have been a member of the same firm for 25 years. I was one of three lawyers who was there when the Firm began and am still there.

I still consider myself a blue collar, Yankee, Catholic guy despite living in the Deep South for over thirty years. I still recall where I came from and who I am, what my family heritage is.

I was the only Catholic in my mostly Southern Baptist law firm for years. I was asked to weekly Bible study every week every Wednesday at lunch for about five years. I always said "Hell, no". Square peg, round hole. They finally gave up and have not asked me for the past twenty years.

I got ahead because I was willing to litigate and do any type of litigation practice needed (and had the ability to do so) not by "socialization". That, and my sense of humor, lol.

Excellent response Terry. I didn't mean to ruffle any feathers with my socialization comment as much as I thought the comments before were looking at professions strictly on the basis of money without considering the intangibles.

To a small firm lawyer in Alabama, that Nuclear Technology certificate to make 110,000 sounds pretty good until you realize you'll be going to work every day in a Nuclear Protection Suit like Homer Simpson.

If you want to make more money do the work necessary to start you're own firm. I have an Uncle who did it Dallas and now he's renovating the top of a skyscraper where his office is into home....

Oh, no feathers ruffled. Not at all.

I am going on 57 years old. I am far more looking forward to retirement than starting my own firm at this point.