CSNbbs

I hope CUSA holds fast on expansion. Realignment is far from done with the possible shake-ups and additions with the B10, B12, SEC, PAC and MWC.

Does he MWC pull from CUSA or do they tap the Montanas and Dakotas? I think either scenario is possible. I wonder if the Montanas and Dakotas are more viable. IMO, they're definitely better.

Long term, I still see a scenario where CUSA and the SBC combine and split along geographical lines. Not sure when it happens, but I believe it's coming. All just depends on what happens with the P5's.

Quote:Long term, I still see a scenario where CUSA and the SBC combine and split along geographical lines. Not sure when it happens, but I believe it's coming. All just depends on what happens with the P5's.

These combine and divide things make a ton of sense, but they basically never actually happen because schools don't want to do what makes sense big picture...they want to align themselves with the group that seems to have the upper hand and the least chance of becoming lowest in the pecking order in the future.

Right now, that's the Sun Belt, and it's tough to envision those schools giving that up.

Also, if that was going to happen, whose to say they Sun Belt doesn't end up doing that same scenario with a reeling American with C-USA getting left out altogether. It's not likely, but I don't think it's any less likely than the Sun Belt/C-USA thing.

(10-05-2022 02:48 PM)inutech Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-05-2022 02:10 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-05-2022 12:29 PM)WKUApollo Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-05-2022 12:19 PM)sstaedtler88 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-05-2022 11:05 AM)whupemall Wrote: [ -> ]If this is the case, then it would make sense for CUSA to go ahead and move on expansion, rather than to wait as many of us here have recommended.

Sure, it'll be a painful few years waiting for 2-3 additional teams to transition, and it would reduce each school's share of conference revenue, but in the end, it would secure our membership at a sustainable level (12 teams?) before any constitutional changes make expansion much more difficult.

FYI, the rumors I saw tied the expansion to a potential new media partner, who wants two divisions of (at least) 6 teams.

To be clear, I'm sharing this as rumor, not as verified fact. My personal knowledge of the situation is approximately equal to zero.

If they want two divisions of 6 teams, I'd expect Kennesaw State, Tarleton State, and perhaps Stephen F. Austin. To get from 9 to 12.

Altho I'd like to stay at 9 for now, adding SF and Tarleton does make for the best case scenario for a Western Division of NMSU, UTEP, LaTech, SHSH, Tarleton, and SF. The East would be WKU, MTSU, JaxSt, KSU, Liberty and FIU. It does clean up the geography a bit.

Divisions like that would allow schools to cut travel costs, especially if non-revenue sports play division only events until conference championships.

Gotta run the math on everything else too though - makes the conference weaker overall, reduces the value of basketball tournament units, less money to split from the CFP per school.

12 is a lot better than 10 (because of divisions) but that's not a great set of 12.

You make very good points but the unknown caveat is still hanging out there and that is the new media contract(s). If whoever CUSA signs with wants a 10th or more and it makes a difference $ wise, then it will happen. About the only way I see the 10th or more making a difference is inventory. 10 is not a better number than 9 but it does offer 5 games a week vs 4 when all that are left in the season are conference games.

(10-06-2022 11:36 AM)eku05 Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:Long term, I still see a scenario where CUSA and the SBC combine and split along geographical lines. Not sure when it happens, but I believe it's coming. All just depends on what happens with the P5's.

These combine and divide things make a ton of sense, but they basically never actually happen because schools don't want to do what makes sense big picture...they want to align themselves with the group that seems to have the upper hand and the least chance of becoming lowest in the pecking order in the future.

Right now, that's the Sun Belt, and it's tough to envision those schools giving that up.

Also, if that was going to happen, whose to say they Sun Belt doesn't end up doing that same scenario with a reeling American with C-USA getting left out altogether. It's not likely, but I don't think it's any less likely than the Sun Belt/C-USA thing.

I doubt the redistricting so to speak happens without the power conference breakaway happening first.

As long as there is the illusion of the chance for members of the current G5 to move to a power conference, you are correct. I believe there is basically a 0% chance for anyone in the Sun Belt, CUSA or MAC or the majority of AAC/MWC, but they'll hold on to the pipe dream.

If the breakaway happens, maybe common sense will prevail.

(10-05-2022 07:05 PM)sstaedtler88 Wrote: [ -> ]Stephen F. Austin would actually help in basketball. They are better than half of the new CUSA teams. Tarleton and Kennesaw have a ways to go, but I think there is certainly potential, and they will be better than many Sun Belt teams.

I checked a few rankings for five selected sports to get an idea what each FCS candidate would bring to the table if a second round of expansion did take place.

The "CUSA average" is the average ranking of CUSA 23 in each of those sports:

• Men's Hoops - 138
• Women's Hoops - 166
• Baseball - 124.3
• Softball - 134.56
• Volleyball - 141.2
  

I didn't bother ranking CUSA in football, since not even Sagarin provides a clear comparison between FCS and FBS strength, but I do include the candidates' current STATS ranking (if any) below. I didn't include every possible candidate, and this list may include some who may not even be interested in FBS. Presented for information only.

SFA - Slightly above CUSA average in men's hoops and softball; very strong in women's hoops and volleyball; weak baseball. Football currently ranked 34th (ORV) in FCS.

Mo State - Very strong in men's and women's hoops and both diamond sports; weak volleyball. Football ranked 20th in FCS.

Kennesaw - Very strong in baseball and volleyball; close to CUSA average in softball; weak men's and women's hoops. Football started season in Top 10 FCS, but is currently unranked.

Delaware - Strong in women's hoops, softball, and volleyball. Close to CUSA average in men's hoops. Solid but below CUSA average in baseball. Football undefeated and ranked 6th in FCS.

EKU - Slightly above CUSA average in baseball. Solid but below average in volleyball. Weak in everything else. Football ranked 25th in FCS.

Tarleton State - Weak in men's and women's hoops and baseball. Solid but below CUSA average in softball and volleyball. Football is unranked, but currently 3-1.

UTC - Strong men's hoops. Solid but below CUSA average in softball. Very weak women's hoops and volleyball. No baseball. Football currently ranked 11th in FCS.

McNeese State - Very strong softball. Solid but below CUSA average in baseball. A little weak in volleyball. Very weak in men's and women's hoops. Football not currently ranked.

Jackson State - Strong women's hoops. Weak in everything else. Football is undefeated and ranked 8th in FCS.

NDSU - Would likely be football only. Currently ranked No. 1 in FCS.

SDSU - Would likely be football only. Currently ranked No. 2 in FCS.

Quote:EKU - Slightly above CUSA average in baseball. Solid but below average in volleyball. Weak in everything else. Football ranked 25th in FCS.

I always like to note that our basketball overall in the 2000s has been stronger than most recent seasons would indicate. One bad coaching hire threw things off for a bit. Last year's team looked pretty good going in, but we were obliterated by injuries like I've never seen before including (but not limited to) losing two of our three best players for the season, and an additional starter was advised to shut it down for the year and simply refused on the grounds that we were getting close to the point of not having enough guys to even play.

What you should be more interested in is the direction things are headed:

-$31 million about to go into an arena that would already be good enough by C-USA standards. The new version of McBrayer arena is going to be terrific.

-An incoming recruiting class ranked better than that of any current or future member of C-USA. And we landed that group with the knowledge that they won't even have a home arena to play in for an entire season of their career (they're literally holding games in a modified student rec center for the 2023-24 season while the renovations happen).

-It's also worth noting that in the most recent era of the OVC, in which Belmont was a member, we had the third highest conference win total of any OVC school with only Murray and Belmont, both now in the MVC, ahead of us.

There are many dynamics that will help determine CUSA, and other G5 expansion possibilities in the next few months to the next couple of years.

1. What happens to the Pac 12? If the current thinking plays out, and the B1G is done raiding for now, does the Pac add 2 schools or stay at 10? If they stay at 10, that will alleviate CUSA concerns on UTEP and NMSU being MWC backfills. But, If the Pac takes 2 MWC schools and the UTEP/NMSU are invited as a package to the MWC, at least that's a clean cut. Those 2 are on an extreme geographic island and CUSA could simply shift east, which would help make CUSA more regional. If the Pac takes 1 from the MWC and 1 from the AAC( SDSU and SMU), which prods the MWC to only invite UTEP, that would actually be far more problematic for CUSA. That would leave NMSU isolated out west, with no travel partner and no possible additions that would work as a travel partner.

2. Will the NCAA change the rules making FCS to FBS jumps more expensive and difficult? If yes, any conference that wants to expand had probably better do it sooner rather than later. I know many are comfortable with 9, but what if the MAC, Sunbelt, AAC or MWC try to pick off the top 3 or 4 CUSA schools to secure their own futures ? Maybe this is a concern, maybe it isn't. That is likely different school to school.

3..Potential media partners may want more inventory than only 9 schools can provide. This is a real possibility. With ESPN losing the B1G, and the possibility of the Pac going all in with Amazon, ESPN may have a big need for more product. If a newcomer like Turner Sports jumps in, they will be looking at potential numbers of viewing eyes and matchup possibilities. A bigger conference provides more of both.

Outside of all of this, the 2 or 3 years of transition pains are likely to happen. But on the other side, you may find the next Coastal Carolina, App State, or UTSA that progresses rapidly and helps bring prominence to the conference. It's hard to ignore the success the Sunbelt has had with these FCS callups. Coastal and App have become nationally known Cinderella stories and Georgia State has provided the Atlanta recruiting grounds that several Sunbelt schools have built their success upon..

(10-06-2022 02:31 PM)eku05 Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:EKU - Slightly above CUSA average in baseball. Solid but below average in volleyball. Weak in everything else. Football ranked 25th in FCS.

I always like to note that our basketball overall in the 2000s has been stronger than most recent seasons would indicate. One bad coaching hire threw things off for a bit. Last year's team looked pretty good going in, but we were obliterated by injuries like I've never seen before including (but not limited to) losing two of our three best players for the season, and an additional starter was advised to shut it down for the year and simply refused on the grounds that we were getting close to the point of not having enough guys to even play.

What you should be more interested in is the direction things are headed:

-$31 million about to go into an arena that would already be good enough by C-USA standards. The new version of McBrayer arena is going to be terrific.

-An incoming recruiting class ranked better than that of any current or future member of C-USA. And we landed that group with the knowledge that they won't even have a home arena to play in for an entire season of their career (they're literally holding games in a modified student rec center for the 2023-24 season while the renovations happen).

-It's also worth noting that in the most recent era of the OVC, in which Belmont was a member, we had the third highest conference win total of any OVC school with only Murray and Belmont, both now in the MVC, ahead of us.

No arguments here. One could also point to Tarleton's incredible slate of recent and upcoming facilities improvements to offset their very weak showing in these rankings.

I might've included that kind of info, but it'd get too far into the weeds. The point of my post was just to give some degree of objective insight into whether adding a team would "hurt" CUSA or help the conference.

Some of the oft-mentioned candidates really have nothing to offer outside football. Others are surprisingly strong across multiple sports. Regardless of where they currently rank, any serious candidates, like the CUSA members themselves, need to make a strong commitment to getting better.

EKU - Slightly above CUSA average in baseball. Solid but below average in volleyball. Weak in everything else. Football ranked 25th in FCS.

Rather ironic that someone who has been a conference mate for some years using arbitrary “rankings” to make a case who is worthy and who is not. It certainly is not a clear objective comparison. Just too many variables that affect your comparison , for example: strength of schedule, injuries, coaching issues and changes. It would be better comparison to look at the overall athletic department and history of success and commitment to success and moving forward. You will not find any university that had done more in the last number of years to make this move than EKU! Just considering Tarleton, who just moved to FCS, is an insult to us. Everyone seems to think they will have $$$based on their connection to A&M. Seems the metric keeps changing, hard to guess what is next!

Quote:Weak in everything else.

Also, I'm not entirely sure what we mean by "everything else," because many sports don't matter much in these conversations, but to whatever extent they do...

Our Cross Country team has finished in the national top 20 a few times, and we even had an individual national champion in steeple chase this past season. We are generally the best XC program in the state even ahead of UK and U of L. Track is solid as well under the same coaching staff.

Also, while in the OVC we won the all-sports trophy, on average. three out of every four years. In an across the board performance sense, we absolutely owned that conference in the 21st Century until we left.

Quote:You will not find any university that had done more in the last number of years to make this move!

He's not wrong that Tarleton is doing a lot as well, but they have further to climb than we do...and we've got additional stuff coming that hasn't even been announced yet.

(10-06-2022 03:11 PM)eku05 Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:Weak in everything else.

Also, I'm not entirely sure what we mean by "everything else," because many sports don't matter much in these conversations, but to whatever extent they do...

Our Cross Country team has finished in the national top 20 a few times, and we even had an individual national champion in steeple chase this past season. We are generally the best XC program in the state even ahead of UK and U of L. Track is solid as well under the same coaching staff.

Also, while in the OVC we won the all-sports trophy, on average. three out of every four years. In an across the board performance sense, we absolutely owned that conference in the 21st Century until we left.

I think EKU is the most ready today, maybe outside of Delaware. The biggest deterrent they have is WKU not wanting an instate conference member.

Quote:I think EKU is the most ready today, maybe outside of Delaware. The biggest deterrent they have is WKU not wanting an instate conference member.

And we have a winner! :)

And yet there are a couple of Texas schools that would probably welcome SFA or Tarleton right in if they were the best choice. Kentucky has a weird dynamic sometimes.

(10-06-2022 03:44 PM)eku05 Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:I think EKU is the most ready today, maybe outside of Delaware. The biggest deterrent they have is WKU not wanting an instate conference member.

And we have a winner! :)

And yet there are a couple of Texas schools that would probably welcome SFA or Tarleton right in if they were the best choice. Kentucky has a weird dynamic sometimes.

Comparing Texas with its 300 FBS teams (ok, it's really 12 or 13) with Kentucky's three isn't a good measuring stick.

As for WKU blocking EKU gaining entrance into CUSA with WKU, I don't believe that's a sure thing. Yes, there are some WKU fans who'd be against it (but not all) but would the WKU admin oppose it? I'm not so sure. It's likely but I don't think it's a sure thing.

I'd wager the decision would be based on a multitude of variables rather than merely the disdain some WKU fans may have for EKU.

Quote:As for WKU blocking EKU gaining entrance into CUSA with WKU, I don't believe that's a sure thing. Yes, there are some WKU fans who'd be against it (but not all) but would the WKU admin oppose it? I'm not so sure. It's likely but I don't think it's a sure thing.

I'd wager the decision would be based on a multitude of variables rather than merely the disdain some WKU fans may have for EKU.

It's not the fans at all. It's the admins. I was under the impression that relations had thawed too, but I have a person I talk to who gets a lot of info from inside the athletic department. A few months back he was hopeful WKU wouldn't block, anything. Then, he called me one day and told me he had it from high authority at EKU that this is 100% for sure exactly what was happening.

I know you read a lot of, "I know a guy..." posts on message boards, but for me I've heard enough from the right people to know this is true at the moment. The governor even tried to intervene to a degree, but it doesn't seem to have accomplished much.

Quote:Comparing Texas with its 300 FBS teams (ok, it's really 12 or 13) with Kentucky's three isn't a good measuring stick.

That's fair, but if you narrow it down to Sam and Steve, the comparison becomes a lot more valid.

(10-06-2022 03:44 PM)eku05 Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:I think EKU is the most ready today, maybe outside of Delaware. The biggest deterrent they have is WKU not wanting an instate conference member.

And we have a winner! :)

And yet there are a couple of Texas schools that would probably welcome SFA or Tarleton right in if they were the best choice. Kentucky has a weird dynamic sometimes.

(10-06-2022 04:17 PM)eku05 Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:As for WKU blocking EKU gaining entrance into CUSA with WKU, I don't believe that's a sure thing. Yes, there are some WKU fans who'd be against it (but not all) but would the WKU admin oppose it? I'm not so sure. It's likely but I don't think it's a sure thing.

I'd wager the decision would be based on a multitude of variables rather than merely the disdain some WKU fans may have for EKU.

It's not the fans at all. It's the admins. I was under the impression that relations had thawed too, but I have a person I talk to who gets a lot of info from inside the athletic department. A few months back he was hopeful WKU wouldn't block, anything. Then, he called me one day and told me he had it from high authority at EKU that this is 100% for sure exactly what was happening.

I know you read a lot of, "I know a guy..." posts on message boards, but for me I've heard enough from the right people to know this is true at the moment. The governor even tried to intervene to a degree, but it doesn't seem to have accomplished much.

You may be right. I have no inside info at all so anything is possible.

In order for WKU to "block" EKU, it would have to reach the level of an offer being on the table, which means media contract is at that stage, all the variables..i.e. FBS readiness, facilities, strength of programs, etc would have been already weighed and EKU came out near the top. I don't believe they're at that stage, altho I could be wrong. We don't even have a new media contract worked out. Then again, WKU could have stated upfront to take EKU off the table regardless of all other factors. That's possible but I hope not.

(10-06-2022 04:17 PM)eku05 Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:As for WKU blocking EKU gaining entrance into CUSA with WKU, I don't believe that's a sure thing. Yes, there are some WKU fans who'd be against it (but not all) but would the WKU admin oppose it? I'm not so sure. It's likely but I don't think it's a sure thing.

I'd wager the decision would be based on a multitude of variables rather than merely the disdain some WKU fans may have for EKU.

It's not the fans at all. It's the admins. I was under the impression that relations had thawed too, but I have a person I talk to who gets a lot of info from inside the athletic department. A few months back he was hopeful WKU wouldn't block, anything. Then, he called me one day and told me he had it from high authority at EKU that this is 100% for sure exactly what was happening.

I know you read a lot of, "I know a guy..." posts on message boards, but for me I've heard enough from the right people to know this is true at the moment. The governor even tried to intervene to a degree, but it doesn't seem to have accomplished much.

This may sound like a die-hard WKU fan not wanting EKU to join our level, but I quite honestly don't see what they bring to the table. Eastern football was a national FCS powerhouse--decades ago. They've only made the FCS playoffs four times in the last 22 years with the most recent being 2014. The last time they won an FCS playoff game was in a year that started with '19'. They by no means compare to the football success that Georgia Southern and App State were experiencing when they moved to the Sun Belt.

And if we're going to base invitations on who has slightly better than average baseball and a cross country team that's been ranked a few times, then C-USA is in a lot worse shape than any of us expected! I really wouldn't have a problem inviting an FCS callup, even if that school is in our state. The renewed rivalry with EKU would be kinda nice. But if we do bring up someone from FCS it needs to be a university that's going to increase our league's image, level of competition, and media contract. Sorry, but EKU currently does none of that, and it's really not even debatable.

If CUSA were to expand to 12 And the MWC took UTEP and NMSU I think if phased in over several years the following would work

-Delaware
-Liberty
-FIU
-Kennesaw State
-WKU
-EKU
-MTSU
-JSU
-Louisiana Tech
-Sam Houston State
-Tarleton
-Missouri State

I just don’t know if Delaware or Missouri State would be into it

(10-06-2022 04:44 PM)Hradmiralsfan Wrote: [ -> ]If CUSA were to expand to 12 And the MWC took UTEP and NMSU I think if phased in over several years the following would work

-Delaware
-Liberty
-FIU
-Kennesaw State
-WKU
-EKU
-MTSU
-JSU
-Louisiana Tech
-Sam Houston State
-Tarleton
-Missouri State

I just don’t know if Delaware or Missouri State would be into it

Delaware has supposedly been approached before by both the Sunbelt and CUSA and prefers to remain where they are, although things could always change. As for Missouri State, it was reported they turned down CUSA and have been flirting with the Sunbelt. As for Kennesaw State, that's my school so I hear pros and cons quite a bit. Some are adamant about moving up, some aren't. The stark reality is that FCS in the South just doesn't have the same quality or appeal that it did 15 years ago, and many of the regional FCS conferences are in continuous flux..