(10-10-2021 08:35 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]If they can pull one out of the Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State stretch and somehow get to 6-6 I think it'll be good
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They need to beat Rutgers/ Maryland. And get one against that triumvirate. They have the best schedule in the country this year. 6-6 would be fine and would make our win on the road seem solid.
It would be preferable if they beat MSU (since that game at Indiana). Makes a win at Indiana look more significant.
FWIW, Jerry Palm - a guy who typically doesn't throw love our way - has us in his latest CFP Projections....
1 Georgia
2 Iowa
3 Oklahoma
4 Cincinnati
I'm not on the doomsayer/woe's is our program train. There is so much national momentum for a non-power program to make the CFP this season. Win out and we're in IMO. As I've posted over on the AAC board, this has been building since our run last season and close loss to Georgia. We're finally getting credit for that - as power teams have in the past - and 14-0 is our current run not including the Peach Bowl.
Quote:Cincinnati handled Temple with ease, winning 52-3 on Friday night, but its playoff hopes also got a boost with Alabama's loss and Notre Dame's win over Virginia Tech. Cincinnati needs the Irish to run the table, so the Bearcats' win over Notre Dame continues to resonate with the selection committee.
One of Cincinnati's other obstacles is the possibility of the SEC getting two teams in, and while Alabama's loss didn't eliminate the scenario entirely, it lessened it.
One other small win for the Bearcats on Saturday was No. 24 SMU winning a close game at Navy. Cincinnati hosts SMU on Nov. 20, and right now it's the only other ranked opponent remaining on the Bearcats' regular-season schedule.
BYU squandered a huge opportunity when it lost 26-17 to unranked Boise State at home on Saturday, leaving Cincinnati as the most realistic team from outside a Power 5 conference to garner any serious consideration from the selection committee.
BYU had everything -- a realistic chance at an undefeated season and multiple opportunities against respectable Power 5 conference teams. It arguably had a shot at a better résumé than Cincinnati, with wins against Utah and Arizona State, and a chance to beat Baylor and USC on the road. Instead, BYU had four turnovers and just one touchdown in the final three quarters of its loss to Boise State.
(10-10-2021 11:55 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote: [ -> ]FWIW, Jerry Palm - a guy who typically doesn't throw love our way - has us in his latest CFP Projections....
1 Georgia
2 Iowa
3 Oklahoma
4 Cincinnati
I'm not on the doomsayer/woe's is our program train. There is so much national momentum for a non-power program to make the CFP this season. Win out and we're in IMO. As I've posted over on the AAC board, this has been building since our run last season and close loss to Georgia. We're finally getting credit for that - as power teams have in the past - and 14-0 is our current run not including the Peach Bowl.
You said it. Never seen so much buzz for a non P5 team by the talking heads. I thought maybe we had a shot at the beginning of the season. Now it’s becoming more of a reality. Obviously, we need to hold serve or it’s a moot point.
To be honest, I am loving every minute of the hype. This is huge on so many levels.
I still have my doubts. Alabama really doesn't have another tough game until the CCG, so if they win that they'll be top 4. If Iowa wins out, but loses a close game to OSU in the CCG, they could both be in, unless OSU loses another game before then. I really don't see anyone beating Oklahoma from the BigXII.
I try to be optimistic about our chances, but I just don't see a clear path for us.
(10-10-2021 04:26 PM)Edgebrookjeff Wrote: [ -> ]I still have my doubts. Alabama really doesn't have another tough game until the CCG, so if they win that they'll be top 4. If Iowa wins out, but loses a close game to OSU in the CCG, they could both be in, unless OSU loses another game before then. I really don't see anyone beating Oklahoma from the BigXII.
I try to be optimistic about our chances, but I just don't see a clear path for us.
See and if Penn St had beat Iowa we would be setting a lot better right now. I think Okla. St will beat Okla. but they could have a rematch in the CCG.
They still play Arkansas and the Iron Bowl at Auburn is about as unpredictable as the crosstown shootout. I am a casualAlabama fan but them losing helped UC immensely so it’s all good.
I already doubted they could beat Georgia this year. They lost so much to the NFL it is crazy that they didn’t really skip a beat until last night. Their front 7 on D isn’t what it usually is. Saban has his work cut out.
OSU, Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State begin their month long round robbin later this month for the right to play Iowa. I’m expecting some blood letting for all 4 of those.
(10-09-2021 10:27 PM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]I liked the Iowa Penh state result too. Iowa is going to lose. Nice to get a loss on Penn state.
It's a long season. We won't get them all every week
I don't know. Iowa could run the table on that side of the conference. Penn State has a tough slate in front of them. Big Ten champion to the CFP is very likely. Worried about Iowa losing championship game for their first loss and two Big Ten getting in.
The only way two big ten teams get into the playoffs is if two undefeated teams go into the ccg. The winner is an auto selection. The one loss could make a case if the rest of the field is worse than them. RN, the only way that could be a reality is if Michigan or MSU remain undefeated and meet iowa in the ccg. Then they have to hope that there are no other undefeateds, including us, and that the other one loss teams have worse resumes. That's way too many "ifs" imo.
I don't understand the thinking here. Iowa is going to play for the Big Ten championship on one side of the bracket. We need them with one loss going into that game. Lets say it's Michigan or OSU on the other side with even one loss and they win. OSU or Michigan would get in and Iowa one loss could then get in above us as well.
So, in your opinion:
undefeated iowa loses to one loss osu or mi= both one loss iowa and one loss osu or undefeated michigan possibly getting playoff berths?
if that's what you are saying, i disagree.
i see it this way:
undefeated or one-loss iowa beats one-loss osu or undefeated mich/msu=iowa to the playoffs as the sole b10 rep.
undefeated or one-loss iowa loses to one loss osu or undefeated mich/msu= one loss osu or undefeated mich/msu getting a playoff invitation as the sole b10 rep.
in either scenario, the b10 ccg champion will get the invite as long as they have no more than one loss. Given the number of teams that are still in competition for playoff spots, i simply don't see the committee taking two b10 teams, especially since mich, msu, psu, and osu will all begin playing one another shortly. But that's just my opinion.
My only point was Big Ten East with OSU, Mich, Mich St, and PSU have six losses coming from playing each other in the coming weeks and OSU has one already so I think there will not be a one loss team that doesn't play in championship game. Iowa losing championship game as first loss could get in ahead of Cincy along with championship game winner (thus 2 in from Big Ten). I just think the committee is going to put 1-loss teams in P5 ahead of undefeated Cincy. That is why I thought it would be better for Iowa to take a loss to PSU.
Quote:Cincinnati handled Temple with ease, winning 52-3 on Friday night, but its playoff hopes also got a boost with Alabama's loss and Notre Dame's win over Virginia Tech. Cincinnati needs the Irish to run the table, so the Bearcats' win over Notre Dame continues to resonate with the selection committee.
One of Cincinnati's other obstacles is the possibility of the SEC getting two teams in, and while Alabama's loss didn't eliminate the scenario entirely, it lessened it.
One other small win for the Bearcats on Saturday was No. 24 SMU winning a close game at Navy. Cincinnati hosts SMU on Nov. 20, and right now it's the only other ranked opponent remaining on the Bearcats' regular-season schedule.
BYU squandered a huge opportunity when it lost 26-17 to unranked Boise State at home on Saturday, leaving Cincinnati as the most realistic team from outside a Power 5 conference to garner any serious consideration from the selection committee.
BYU had everything -- a realistic chance at an undefeated season and multiple opportunities against respectable Power 5 conference teams. It arguably had a shot at a better résumé than Cincinnati, with wins against Utah and Arizona State, and a chance to beat Baylor and USC on the road. Instead, BYU had four turnovers and just one touchdown in the final three quarters of its loss to Boise State.
Perfect (realistic) conference scenarios for us that don't involve any massive upsets:
ACC: Really, the only concern here is if Wake Forest wins out (they won't). They still have to play @ Army, @ UNC, home against NC State, @ Clemson, @ Boston College, and if they make it, probably Pitt or Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game. Whoever wins the ACC is going to have at least 1, but more likely 2 losses IMO and won't have the strength of schedule to justify CFP consideration unless absolute chaos happens between now and then.
Big Ten: I don't think Iowa is truly the 2nd-best team in the country, but they also have a very manageable schedule remaining. They'll win their division, but I could see them losing @ an improving Nebraska to end the season. In the east, I think we just don't want anyone to run the table over there. OSU coming out of that division at 10-2 and beating an 11-1 or 12-0 Iowa in the Big Ten championship game would probably be enough to keep us ahead of anyone in the Big Ten. Still a lot of things that could go against us, like a 13-0 Iowa, 13-0 Michigan, or 12-1 OSU or Penn State. Their losses were early enough and to good enough teams to recover considering overall strength of schedule.
Big 12: I think we want Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to beat each other once in the regular season and the conference championship game. Even better if no one enters the Big 12 championship game undefeated, which is possible with Oklahoma State playing @ Texas this weekend and Oklahoma taking a trip to Baylor in November. Iowa State has also given Oklahoma fits in recent years, and the metrics seem to think ISU is still a really good team that's had some bad breaks.
Pac-12: Only thing to heavily worry about here is a 12-1 Oregon champion. If Ohio State also wins the Big Ten at 12-1, it could give the CFP committee justification to put both teams in ahead of us -- especially if Notre Dame only finishes something like 8-4, which seems unlikely. I don't think a 12-1 Arizona State would get in over 13-0 Cincinnati as they don't have the brand cache of Oregon, but I suppose it's possible in theory.
SEC: Best thing that can happen here is that only one team emerges with less than 2 losses. Alabama should roll to the CCG at 11-1. Georgia has Kentucky and Florida coming up the next two weeks, but both games are at home. Hopefully they get caught off guard and lose one of those games, leading to a 12-1 SEC champion and an 11-2 runner-up.
It's crazy how many possible scenarios are still out there, and it's a shame we even have to sweat this out when we know we can hang with anyone and deserve the invite at 13-0. Hopefully things really break for us over the next few weeks and we can emerge from October with some sense of controlling our own destiny.
Also, and I hate to beat up on Cole Smith anymore than has already happened -- but I wonder if the perception of the Notre Dame win would be much different if he had made the two field goals and the final score was 30-13. You would think that would earn some style points (and would be more indicative of how the game actually went anyway), but I could also see it working against us because, you know... reasons: i.e. Notre Dame got housed, so they must not be very good and that is justification to dismiss Notre Dame as a quality win. It sounds so ridiculous when I read it out loud, yet that's the kind of BS we are up against that no one in the P5 would ever have to deal with. Can't wait for the 12-team playoff.
(10-11-2021 05:45 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote: [ -> ]Iowa will lose a game to somebody they’re not supposed to before the Big Ten Championship.
Probably so. The inherent advantage these P5 team have is wins against ranked opponents, simply because so many in these conferences are ranked every year. IU and PSU were ranked when they played @ Iowa so that's on the Hawkeyes scorecard after defeating both. It's possible Houston will get ranked, but UC won't see them this season unless the Cougars reach the CCG. SMU looked shaky Saturday and I think will be hard pressed to run the table and stay in the polls. So UC could finish with just one win against a ranked foe.
To me, it all comes back to the 12 team playoff being the best solution, with the five largest conference champions getting automatic bids. I can see a scenario where a three loss SEC team might be a favorite in such a bracket but it will generate so much broader fan interest in the CFP than the current four team model that weighs any single loss so heavily.
(10-11-2021 05:45 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote: [ -> ]Iowa will lose a game to somebody they’re not supposed to before the Big Ten Championship.
Probably so. The inherent advantage these P5 team have is wins against ranked opponents, simply because so many in these conferences are ranked every year. IU and PSU were ranked when they played @ Iowa so that's on the Hawkeyes scorecard after defeating both. It's possible Houston will get ranked, but UC won't see them this season unless the Cougars reach the CCG. SMU looked shaky Saturday and I think will be hard pressed to run the table and stay in the polls. So UC could finish with just one win against a ranked foe.
To me, it all comes back to the 12 team playoff being the best solution, with the five largest conference champions getting automatic bids. I can see a scenario where a three loss SEC team might be a favorite in such a bracket but it will generate so much broader fan interest in the CFP than the current four team model that weighs any single loss so heavily.
I have a feeling they are going to lose to Nebraska at the end of the season. Nebraska has been *this* close to knocking off Michigan, Oklahoma, and Michigan State in recent weeks and boat raced Northwestern. They might be the best sub-.500 team in the country right now, and while Frost has blown most of his opportunities in close games, he's bound to catch one eventually.
Iowa's offense is not impressive at all, and while their defense is really good, it's an opportunistic defense. Obviously forcing turnovers is a skill, but it can be a flukey one -- the fumbles and tipped passes aren't always going to bounce your way. If Iowa plays in a hostile road environment (the game is in Lincoln) and their defense doesn't get multiple turnovers, they are very beatable.
If Iowa does somehow win out, I would love to catch them in a #2 vs. #3 matchup in the CFP. I have little doubt Cincinnati is a better team and would have a great chance to win that game. Alabama, Georgia, and OSU are the only teams that scare me, and Georgia less so due to the confidence we gained in the Peach Bowl.
I'm tired of the narrative that Cincinnati is a "borderline top ten" team benefitting from teams losing in front of us. We're better than Iowa. We're better than Oklahoma. We're better than Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State. We're better than Oregon, Wake Forest, Oklahoma State, Kentucky, and any other team that has an outside shot at the CFP aside from Bama, Georgia, and OSU. If you put a gun to my head, I'd probably pick those 3 teams over us, but I absolutely believe we would make it a close game and have chances to win. We're a legitimate top 5 team, and no one is going to change my mind on that.
We all have opinions and this guy is no different. That being said, the one thing this opinion piece reinforced was how hard it is going to be for the b10 to get two teams into the playoffs. The optimal situation is two undefeated teams going into the ccg. if there is only one undefeated team, the other team can only have one loss and the one loss team has to be the ccg victor. if the one loss team is iowa, that means that either msu or michigan have to run the table. And if iowa happens to lose two games prior to the ccg, not likely but non-zero like all the other scenarios articulated in the opinion piece, then the entire thing falls apart.
Honestly, the more interesting question for me is what the committee will do if an undefeated iowa goes into the ccg against a two loss b10 east team and loses. Does the committee still consider iowa? Do they take a two loss b10 champion? if they had to choose between the two, they wouldn't snub a conference champion after a head to head W would they?
