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Full Version: Buy or Sell: ESPN Playoff Odds (not the Brian Kelly thread)
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Buy Cincy. Sell BYU (barring schedule addition).
(11-16-2020 04:50 AM)RUScarlets Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 06:15 PM)Crayton Wrote: [ -> ]A&M vs. BYU or Cincy that last week?

It makes you wonder, will conferences be more willing to stage 13th games for schools that fail to qualify for respective CCG? If you have two bubble teams that finish 2nd in a P5 division, why not just throw a game together if you need another match on your resume? It’s unlikely but I’m trying to figure out what mechanism it would take. Would teams be able to schedule out of conference? I’d also imagine you can’t compete with your CCG in the same time slot so I don’t know when you’d be able to schedule it.

The Big Ten and Pac-12 were supposed to be the testing grounds for this. I had originally thought it would be a way to get the OSU/PSU loser an extra game to build their case to make the Playoff. It would be also good for Alabama/LSU losers many years (or this year Texas A&M possibly). Of course then Penn State starts 0-4 and Michigan 1-3 and LSU is sub .500 including losing their first game at home to Mississippi State so the idea of two strong teams in the same division in a conference didn't apply this season (maybe Alabama/Texas A&M will still happen).
(11-16-2020 07:05 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 12:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 08:56 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 08:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ]Let me step in as a Cincinnati fan.

1. I do not see the Bearcats going undefeated — so this should soon be all moot. They still have to play at UCF and Tulsa, two quality teams. Even the game at Temple is not a gemme. Then, if UC is 10-0 at regular season's end, the Bearcats will host one of the following (Tulsa, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Houston or Navy) in the league title game. Any of those teams can put up a strong fight.

2. UC will NOT get into the four-team playoff, over a one-loss ND, SEC team or Big Ten team. Most of us agree on that.

3. Cincinnati at 11-0 would not be a shoe-in over a 7-0 Pac-12 team. But it's possible. Clearly 11-0 with a solid schedule ... that's not easy to do.

4. I do feel, and fairly confidently, that UC at 11-0 would get in over a one-loss Big 12 team. The Big 12 is a bit down this season.

5. Essentially, Cincy needs to 1. win out; 2. win out impressively; and 3. hope at least as many as possible teams from the Big Ten, SEC and ACC vying for the playoff have two losses.

6. IF all that happens (a major "IF"), the Bearcats have a shot.

7. As previously noted, if UC makes it to the four-team playoff, Bill Dazzle — in a celebratory state of mind — might pull some stunt here in Nashville that could get him arrested.

No chance Cincinnati gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma St. (only possible 1 loss Big 12 team) with the lone loss to Texas in OT. They have 2 wins over ranked teams and play OU this weekend and then a ccg against (assuming they beat OU and run the table) ISU, KSU or Texas.

You're referring to the Iowa State team that lost to Louisiana 31-14, right?

And the Kansas State team that lost to 3-5 Arkansas State, right?

The best teams in the Big 12 aren't exactly faring well against outside competition this year.

Don’t forget Oregon, who will play a bunch of teams that finished sub .500 last year (including a UCLA team Cincinnati beat the past two years), with only real tests being Washington and the CCG. But.. “muh eyeball test”.

The lack of a non-conference is a boost to the ACC and Pac.
(11-16-2020 07:05 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 12:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 08:56 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 08:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ]Let me step in as a Cincinnati fan.

1. I do not see the Bearcats going undefeated — so this should soon be all moot. They still have to play at UCF and Tulsa, two quality teams. Even the game at Temple is not a gemme. Then, if UC is 10-0 at regular season's end, the Bearcats will host one of the following (Tulsa, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Houston or Navy) in the league title game. Any of those teams can put up a strong fight.

2. UC will NOT get into the four-team playoff, over a one-loss ND, SEC team or Big Ten team. Most of us agree on that.

3. Cincinnati at 11-0 would not be a shoe-in over a 7-0 Pac-12 team. But it's possible. Clearly 11-0 with a solid schedule ... that's not easy to do.

4. I do feel, and fairly confidently, that UC at 11-0 would get in over a one-loss Big 12 team. The Big 12 is a bit down this season.

5. Essentially, Cincy needs to 1. win out; 2. win out impressively; and 3. hope at least as many as possible teams from the Big Ten, SEC and ACC vying for the playoff have two losses.

6. IF all that happens (a major "IF"), the Bearcats have a shot.

7. As previously noted, if UC makes it to the four-team playoff, Bill Dazzle — in a celebratory state of mind — might pull some stunt here in Nashville that could get him arrested.

No chance Cincinnati gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma St. (only possible 1 loss Big 12 team) with the lone loss to Texas in OT. They have 2 wins over ranked teams and play OU this weekend and then a ccg against (assuming they beat OU and run the table) ISU, KSU or Texas.

You're referring to the Iowa State team that lost to Louisiana 31-14, right?

And the Kansas State team that lost to 3-5 Arkansas State, right?

The best teams in the Big 12 aren't exactly faring well against outside competition this year.

Don’t forget Oregon, who will play a bunch of teams that finished sub .500 last year (including a UCLA team Cincinnati beat the past two years), with only real tests being Washington and the CCG. But.. “muh eyeball test”.

I guess you just haven't been paying attention the last 6 years.

You can't look at Ohio St.'s 2014 schedule and say they belonged in over TCU. TCU played 5 teams ranked at the time and only lost by 3 on the road with a 4th quarter comeback to a top 6 team. Ohio St. played 2 teams ranked when they played them and lost to a 6-5 team at home by 14. Yet TCU dropped from #3 to #6 in the final poll despite winning 55-3 in their final game.

Regardless of how good you think Cincinnati is, you are just totally delusional if you think this committee will pick a G5 team. The only one who ever had a chance was Houston the year they beat Oklahoma. They would have been close if they went unbeaten. Beating Appalachian St. and Army doesn't sell any of those P5 committee members.
(11-16-2020 11:31 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 07:05 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 12:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 08:56 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 08:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ]Let me step in as a Cincinnati fan.

1. I do not see the Bearcats going undefeated — so this should soon be all moot. They still have to play at UCF and Tulsa, two quality teams. Even the game at Temple is not a gemme. Then, if UC is 10-0 at regular season's end, the Bearcats will host one of the following (Tulsa, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Houston or Navy) in the league title game. Any of those teams can put up a strong fight.

2. UC will NOT get into the four-team playoff, over a one-loss ND, SEC team or Big Ten team. Most of us agree on that.

3. Cincinnati at 11-0 would not be a shoe-in over a 7-0 Pac-12 team. But it's possible. Clearly 11-0 with a solid schedule ... that's not easy to do.

4. I do feel, and fairly confidently, that UC at 11-0 would get in over a one-loss Big 12 team. The Big 12 is a bit down this season.

5. Essentially, Cincy needs to 1. win out; 2. win out impressively; and 3. hope at least as many as possible teams from the Big Ten, SEC and ACC vying for the playoff have two losses.

6. IF all that happens (a major "IF"), the Bearcats have a shot.

7. As previously noted, if UC makes it to the four-team playoff, Bill Dazzle — in a celebratory state of mind — might pull some stunt here in Nashville that could get him arrested.

No chance Cincinnati gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma St. (only possible 1 loss Big 12 team) with the lone loss to Texas in OT. They have 2 wins over ranked teams and play OU this weekend and then a ccg against (assuming they beat OU and run the table) ISU, KSU or Texas.

You're referring to the Iowa State team that lost to Louisiana 31-14, right?

And the Kansas State team that lost to 3-5 Arkansas State, right?

The best teams in the Big 12 aren't exactly faring well against outside competition this year.

Don’t forget Oregon, who will play a bunch of teams that finished sub .500 last year (including a UCLA team Cincinnati beat the past two years), with only real tests being Washington and the CCG. But.. “muh eyeball test”.

The lack of a non-conference is a boost to the ACC and Pac.

The ACC did take two losses to Liberty.

Once the Big Ten, Pac 12, and SEC decided to not play non conference games, the ACC and Big 12 were better off not playing non conference games. They weren't going to gain any "credit" for beating most non P5's unless they were able to pick a "good" one and beat them and if they lost to them that would ruin their season. The ACC wasn't hurt as much because Clemson and Notre Dame have strong reputations but the Big 12's reputation early was shot because of those early losses by Iowa State and Kansas State, especially after those two teams beat Oklahoma. If the Big 12 didn't play non conference this season, they'd look a lot better now. Imagine if Iowa State hadn't lost to Louisiana. What if ISU wins out? Maybe a 1 loss ISU team makes the Playoff. A 2 loss ISU team won't.
(11-16-2020 11:44 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 07:05 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 12:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 08:56 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 08:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ]Let me step in as a Cincinnati fan.

1. I do not see the Bearcats going undefeated — so this should soon be all moot. They still have to play at UCF and Tulsa, two quality teams. Even the game at Temple is not a gemme. Then, if UC is 10-0 at regular season's end, the Bearcats will host one of the following (Tulsa, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Houston or Navy) in the league title game. Any of those teams can put up a strong fight.

2. UC will NOT get into the four-team playoff, over a one-loss ND, SEC team or Big Ten team. Most of us agree on that.

3. Cincinnati at 11-0 would not be a shoe-in over a 7-0 Pac-12 team. But it's possible. Clearly 11-0 with a solid schedule ... that's not easy to do.

4. I do feel, and fairly confidently, that UC at 11-0 would get in over a one-loss Big 12 team. The Big 12 is a bit down this season.

5. Essentially, Cincy needs to 1. win out; 2. win out impressively; and 3. hope at least as many as possible teams from the Big Ten, SEC and ACC vying for the playoff have two losses.

6. IF all that happens (a major "IF"), the Bearcats have a shot.

7. As previously noted, if UC makes it to the four-team playoff, Bill Dazzle — in a celebratory state of mind — might pull some stunt here in Nashville that could get him arrested.

No chance Cincinnati gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma St. (only possible 1 loss Big 12 team) with the lone loss to Texas in OT. They have 2 wins over ranked teams and play OU this weekend and then a ccg against (assuming they beat OU and run the table) ISU, KSU or Texas.

You're referring to the Iowa State team that lost to Louisiana 31-14, right?

And the Kansas State team that lost to 3-5 Arkansas State, right?

The best teams in the Big 12 aren't exactly faring well against outside competition this year.

Don’t forget Oregon, who will play a bunch of teams that finished sub .500 last year (including a UCLA team Cincinnati beat the past two years), with only real tests being Washington and the CCG. But.. “muh eyeball test”.

I guess you just haven't been paying attention the last 6 years.

You can't look at Ohio St.'s 2014 schedule and say they belonged in over TCU. TCU played 5 teams ranked at the time and only lost by 3 on the road with a 4th quarter comeback to a top 6 team. Ohio St. played 2 teams ranked when they played them and lost to a 6-5 team at home by 14. Yet TCU dropped from #3 to #6 in the final poll despite winning 55-3 in their final game.

Regardless of how good you think Cincinnati is, you are just totally delusional if you think this committee will pick a G5 team. The only one who ever had a chance was Houston the year they beat Oklahoma. They would have been close if they went unbeaten. Beating Appalachian St. and Army doesn't sell any of those P5 committee members.

Oh I have no delusion of grandeur. I understand how the system works. They look at the names of the opponents, not the on field product. Because in reality SMU, UCF, Tulsa, Army, Memphis are just as good on the field as Washington State, Oregon State, Cal, UCLA and Arizona this year.

I've been watching CFB a long time. This Cincinnati team is built a lot different than most schools from "also-ran" conferences. There is a lot of quality depth that you don't usually see, particularly on the offensive line and on the defensive side of the ball. There have been games where they've played 25-27 guys on defense, rotating them throughout the course of the game. The offensive line is massive, resembling something you'd see at a mid-tier B10 team (Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin).
Sell both at this point.

With luck, they'll meet in the Cotton or Peach Bowl.
SELL.

The P-5 Club cannot let the little sisters of the poor to crash their party.
Nope. Not gonna happen
(11-15-2020 06:25 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 06:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 06:10 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 05:48 PM)schmolik Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 04:24 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote: [ -> ]A 7-0 USC or Oregon would be in over a UC or BYU. The real question is would they be in over over a 1 loss Clemson/Bama/ND. I suspect they wouldn't.

A 1 loss Clemson would win the ACC. I don't think they would stand in USC/Oregon's way of the Playoff. A 1 loss Notre Dame losing to Clemson in the ACC CG would be debatable and in that case I'd go with the Pac-12 (I'd go with unbeaten Cincy or BYU over 1 loss ND as well).

I would assume barring total chaos the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC champs all get in, it's the 4th Playoff spot that would be up for grabs. I think Alabama with 1 loss as a non champion would be in over any unbeaten, even an unbeaten Pac-12. I don't like Notre Dame over other "high" unbeatens (Pac-12, Cincinnati, BYU). They beat Clemson at home in double OT when they didn't have Trevor Lawrence. There's not enough information about Ohio State or Wisconsin to say if the loser of a double undefeated OSU/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship game can make it. I'd say they'd have a better argument than Notre Dame but I'm not sure over the undefeateds. Keep in mind Wisconsin plays Indiana this year which helps Wisconsin's strength of schedule. It sucks for the B1G that both Penn State and Michigan suck.

Its not about what you or I would do, its about what the committee would do. Personally I would never allow a non-conference champion into the playoff (so long as it stands at four teams). I think it invalidates the regular season. I don't have a vote though, and I don't see a one loss ND team getting left out. At the minimum it wouldn't be for BYU or Cincy. A two loss Clemson team would get in over them. Its not how I would vote it but I fully believe it is how the committee would vote.

I think you are overly pessimistic in two senses - first, I think a one-loss ND could very well get left out, even in favor of a Cincy or BYU, if they get roasted by Clemson. An Irish team that gets routed 42 - 7 isn't getting in, period, IMO. Just would not pass the eye/smell/giggle test.

And I do not see a two-loss Clemson getting in to the playoffs over anyone else either.

That's what I think the committee's POV will be. But I am just blowing smoke like all of us, LOL.

I don't see any way the committee picks BYU or Cincinnati. Florida or Texas A&M with 2 losses likely end up ranked ahead of them. BYU does have a shot at the NY6.

What about Liberty in the NY6?

How does BYU have more of a shot than Liberty?
Still an uphill battle for G5 schools. Anyone want to see a nice de cleater block? at 6.27
RB Gerrid Doaks on an ECU DT. 03-nutkick



(11-16-2020 04:39 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 06:25 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 06:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 06:10 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 05:48 PM)schmolik Wrote: [ -> ]A 1 loss Clemson would win the ACC. I don't think they would stand in USC/Oregon's way of the Playoff. A 1 loss Notre Dame losing to Clemson in the ACC CG would be debatable and in that case I'd go with the Pac-12 (I'd go with unbeaten Cincy or BYU over 1 loss ND as well).

I would assume barring total chaos the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC champs all get in, it's the 4th Playoff spot that would be up for grabs. I think Alabama with 1 loss as a non champion would be in over any unbeaten, even an unbeaten Pac-12. I don't like Notre Dame over other "high" unbeatens (Pac-12, Cincinnati, BYU). They beat Clemson at home in double OT when they didn't have Trevor Lawrence. There's not enough information about Ohio State or Wisconsin to say if the loser of a double undefeated OSU/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship game can make it. I'd say they'd have a better argument than Notre Dame but I'm not sure over the undefeateds. Keep in mind Wisconsin plays Indiana this year which helps Wisconsin's strength of schedule. It sucks for the B1G that both Penn State and Michigan suck.

Its not about what you or I would do, its about what the committee would do. Personally I would never allow a non-conference champion into the playoff (so long as it stands at four teams). I think it invalidates the regular season. I don't have a vote though, and I don't see a one loss ND team getting left out. At the minimum it wouldn't be for BYU or Cincy. A two loss Clemson team would get in over them. Its not how I would vote it but I fully believe it is how the committee would vote.

I think you are overly pessimistic in two senses - first, I think a one-loss ND could very well get left out, even in favor of a Cincy or BYU, if they get roasted by Clemson. An Irish team that gets routed 42 - 7 isn't getting in, period, IMO. Just would not pass the eye/smell/giggle test.

And I do not see a two-loss Clemson getting in to the playoffs over anyone else either.

That's what I think the committee's POV will be. But I am just blowing smoke like all of us, LOL.

I don't see any way the committee picks BYU or Cincinnati. Florida or Texas A&M with 2 losses likely end up ranked ahead of them. BYU does have a shot at the NY6.

What about Liberty in the NY6?

How does BYU have more of a shot than Liberty?

Because they are the better team, have played a better schedule (believe it or not), and actually pass the eye and smell test.

I would love for BYU and Liberty to play each other on 12/19.
I’ve heard of the eye test but what is this smell test you speak of?
(11-16-2020 11:44 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 07:05 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 12:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 08:56 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 08:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: [ -> ]Let me step in as a Cincinnati fan.

1. I do not see the Bearcats going undefeated — so this should soon be all moot. They still have to play at UCF and Tulsa, two quality teams. Even the game at Temple is not a gemme. Then, if UC is 10-0 at regular season's end, the Bearcats will host one of the following (Tulsa, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Houston or Navy) in the league title game. Any of those teams can put up a strong fight.

2. UC will NOT get into the four-team playoff, over a one-loss ND, SEC team or Big Ten team. Most of us agree on that.

3. Cincinnati at 11-0 would not be a shoe-in over a 7-0 Pac-12 team. But it's possible. Clearly 11-0 with a solid schedule ... that's not easy to do.

4. I do feel, and fairly confidently, that UC at 11-0 would get in over a one-loss Big 12 team. The Big 12 is a bit down this season.

5. Essentially, Cincy needs to 1. win out; 2. win out impressively; and 3. hope at least as many as possible teams from the Big Ten, SEC and ACC vying for the playoff have two losses.

6. IF all that happens (a major "IF"), the Bearcats have a shot.

7. As previously noted, if UC makes it to the four-team playoff, Bill Dazzle — in a celebratory state of mind — might pull some stunt here in Nashville that could get him arrested.

No chance Cincinnati gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma St. (only possible 1 loss Big 12 team) with the lone loss to Texas in OT. They have 2 wins over ranked teams and play OU this weekend and then a ccg against (assuming they beat OU and run the table) ISU, KSU or Texas.

You're referring to the Iowa State team that lost to Louisiana 31-14, right?

And the Kansas State team that lost to 3-5 Arkansas State, right?

The best teams in the Big 12 aren't exactly faring well against outside competition this year.

Don’t forget Oregon, who will play a bunch of teams that finished sub .500 last year (including a UCLA team Cincinnati beat the past two years), with only real tests being Washington and the CCG. But.. “muh eyeball test”.

I guess you just haven't been paying attention the last 6 years.

You can't look at Ohio St.'s 2014 schedule and say they belonged in over TCU. TCU played 5 teams ranked at the time and only lost by 3 on the road with a 4th quarter comeback to a top 6 team. Ohio St. played 2 teams ranked when they played them and lost to a 6-5 team at home by 14. Yet TCU dropped from #3 to #6 in the final poll despite winning 55-3 in their final game.

TCU had a Baylor problem. Ohio State didn't.

07-coffee3
(11-16-2020 05:42 PM)YNot Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 04:39 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 06:25 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 06:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 06:10 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote: [ -> ]Its not about what you or I would do, its about what the committee would do. Personally I would never allow a non-conference champion into the playoff (so long as it stands at four teams). I think it invalidates the regular season. I don't have a vote though, and I don't see a one loss ND team getting left out. At the minimum it wouldn't be for BYU or Cincy. A two loss Clemson team would get in over them. Its not how I would vote it but I fully believe it is how the committee would vote.

I think you are overly pessimistic in two senses - first, I think a one-loss ND could very well get left out, even in favor of a Cincy or BYU, if they get roasted by Clemson. An Irish team that gets routed 42 - 7 isn't getting in, period, IMO. Just would not pass the eye/smell/giggle test.

And I do not see a two-loss Clemson getting in to the playoffs over anyone else either.

That's what I think the committee's POV will be. But I am just blowing smoke like all of us, LOL.

I don't see any way the committee picks BYU or Cincinnati. Florida or Texas A&M with 2 losses likely end up ranked ahead of them. BYU does have a shot at the NY6.

What about Liberty in the NY6?

How does BYU have more of a shot than Liberty?

Because they are the better team, have played a better schedule (believe it or not), and actually pass the eye and smell test.

I would love for BYU and Liberty to play each other on 12/19.

I think BYU is the better team as well but I think the schedule is debatable (if not now certainly if both teams run the table). Also I think the real answer is that our opinions are heavily shaped by the polls. BYU because of there early stomping of Navy in week zero got on the polls radar earlier than Liberty and given the nature of the polls has continued to climb since they've stayed undefeated. It'll be interesting to see how the committee evaluates both teams. If Liberty wins @NCST next week I imagine the gap between them and BYU will shrink considerably in the playoff rankings.
(11-16-2020 06:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 11:44 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 07:05 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 12:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 08:56 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]No chance Cincinnati gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma St. (only possible 1 loss Big 12 team) with the lone loss to Texas in OT. They have 2 wins over ranked teams and play OU this weekend and then a ccg against (assuming they beat OU and run the table) ISU, KSU or Texas.

You're referring to the Iowa State team that lost to Louisiana 31-14, right?

And the Kansas State team that lost to 3-5 Arkansas State, right?

The best teams in the Big 12 aren't exactly faring well against outside competition this year.

Don’t forget Oregon, who will play a bunch of teams that finished sub .500 last year (including a UCLA team Cincinnati beat the past two years), with only real tests being Washington and the CCG. But.. “muh eyeball test”.

I guess you just haven't been paying attention the last 6 years.

You can't look at Ohio St.'s 2014 schedule and say they belonged in over TCU. TCU played 5 teams ranked at the time and only lost by 3 on the road with a 4th quarter comeback to a top 6 team. Ohio St. played 2 teams ranked when they played them and lost to a 6-5 team at home by 14. Yet TCU dropped from #3 to #6 in the final poll despite winning 55-3 in their final game.

TCU had a Baylor problem. Ohio State didn't.

07-coffee3

TCU, and Baylor for that matter, had a big 12 problem. If the conference would have just declared a winner the committee would've selected that team rather than Ohio St. Instead they got greedy trying to get both teams selected and ended up getting burned instead.
Cincinnati: Sell

BYU: Sell

Deserving a shot in the CFP and actually getting a shot are two different things entirely. Neither will get a shot if they remain undefeated. If the B1G/P12 were not in play as was originally stated by the conferences [and panned on this board] then I could see it as a possibility. There's only four slots and too many good teams in the power conferences to keep us "little guys" out. I've been saying for weeks - wait until the CFP rankings come out and I can almost 100% guarantee that Cincinnati and BYU will be ranked lower than they currently are in the AP Poll. It is what it is. At this point, I just want Cincinnati to make the NY6 and I'll be a happy camper indeed.
(11-16-2020 06:18 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 06:14 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 11:44 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 07:05 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 12:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]You're referring to the Iowa State team that lost to Louisiana 31-14, right?

And the Kansas State team that lost to 3-5 Arkansas State, right?

The best teams in the Big 12 aren't exactly faring well against outside competition this year.

Don’t forget Oregon, who will play a bunch of teams that finished sub .500 last year (including a UCLA team Cincinnati beat the past two years), with only real tests being Washington and the CCG. But.. “muh eyeball test”.

I guess you just haven't been paying attention the last 6 years.

You can't look at Ohio St.'s 2014 schedule and say they belonged in over TCU. TCU played 5 teams ranked at the time and only lost by 3 on the road with a 4th quarter comeback to a top 6 team. Ohio St. played 2 teams ranked when they played them and lost to a 6-5 team at home by 14. Yet TCU dropped from #3 to #6 in the final poll despite winning 55-3 in their final game.

TCU had a Baylor problem. Ohio State didn't.

07-coffee3

TCU, and Baylor for that matter, had a big 12 problem. If the conference would have just declared a winner the committee would've selected that team rather than Ohio St. Instead they got greedy trying to get both teams selected and ended up getting burned instead.

Possibly, But I do not think the committee would have taken a Big 12 champ Baylor over Ohio State. Baylor's resume was extremely weak, save for the very close win over TCU. On the other hand, if the Big 12 had picked a champ, it had to be Baylor - same record but beat TCU head to head.

IMO, that was the real problem - TCU had a better resume than Ohio State, but you couldn't get them past Baylor to make a comparison with Ohio State.
(11-16-2020 05:42 PM)YNot Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-16-2020 04:39 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 06:25 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 06:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-15-2020 06:10 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote: [ -> ]Its not about what you or I would do, its about what the committee would do. Personally I would never allow a non-conference champion into the playoff (so long as it stands at four teams). I think it invalidates the regular season. I don't have a vote though, and I don't see a one loss ND team getting left out. At the minimum it wouldn't be for BYU or Cincy. A two loss Clemson team would get in over them. Its not how I would vote it but I fully believe it is how the committee would vote.

I think you are overly pessimistic in two senses - first, I think a one-loss ND could very well get left out, even in favor of a Cincy or BYU, if they get roasted by Clemson. An Irish team that gets routed 42 - 7 isn't getting in, period, IMO. Just would not pass the eye/smell/giggle test.

And I do not see a two-loss Clemson getting in to the playoffs over anyone else either.

That's what I think the committee's POV will be. But I am just blowing smoke like all of us, LOL.

I don't see any way the committee picks BYU or Cincinnati. Florida or Texas A&M with 2 losses likely end up ranked ahead of them. BYU does have a shot at the NY6.

What about Liberty in the NY6?

How does BYU have more of a shot than Liberty?

Because they are the better team, have played a better schedule (believe it or not), and actually pass the eye and smell test.

I would love for BYU and Liberty to play each other on 12/19.

My point is more we won't know where either stands until the CFP rankings come out.

Maybe they respect BYU in the rankings, maybe they stick them behind Liberty.
A week from Tuesday we will have a good idea.
Still a possibility the ACC has 3 teams at 10-1 . Miami is likely going to finish 10-1 also but they don’t have ND on the schedule this year but lose the championship tiebreaker to Clemson. So BYU and Cincy have that to deal with too. I’m sell either makes it this season.
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