(01-21-2019 09:09 PM)olliebaba Wrote: [ -> ] (01-21-2019 02:41 PM)atsKnight Wrote: [ -> ] (01-21-2019 02:27 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]No. Republicans had an overwhelming victory in 1994 and 2010 midterms and lost the presidential election. Democrats had a surprising (for a 2nd term president) win in 1998 midterms and lost the presidential election.
Lots can happen on the economy. The candidate can make a difference. A contentious convention (on either side) can make a difference.
53% is a landslide these days. Trump earned 306 electoral votes. A landslide would be winning those plus the close states-Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine and perhaps some additional states from Virginia to Rhode Island.
53% is what I would consider a modern landslide. And extrapolating from the midterms is usually a fool's errand. But that's because the electorate in the midterms looks so different than the general. The surprising thing about these midterms was how similar they looked to a general electorate.
Trump is running about 46-47% that strongly disapprove of him and I think that has been pretty consistent for a while. I don't see how he could hit 53% when almost 47% hates his guts.
I just don't think there are many true independents anymore, even less with Trump. Dems can put up whoever they want and a large percentage of the country will vote for them. Trump could double the economy and there would be a massive portion of people that would say it was inherited from Obama.
Don't let numbers fool you. Just because there's 47% that say they don't like Trump doesn't mean that the majority of those wouldn't hold their nose and vote for him anyway because of the economy. Remember something the Demons don't ever get, that is, people vote with their pocket books. I don't even like the way he does things but sure as heck he's been a life saver for this country and I hope it continues. I'm just glad my vote was a wise one even though I wasn't one of his fans...like I said I voted while holding my nose all the time. Not anymore, I'd be voting and breathing in all the good things he's done.
I didn't vote for Trump in 2016 because I think he's a terrible person. However, his policies have surprised me, and I agree with most of them, so I could hold my nose and vote for him. I also live in Alabama and could write in my dog for president and the republican would still win the state.
(01-21-2019 07:26 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (01-21-2019 07:21 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (01-21-2019 07:02 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]Trump barely threaded the needle in 2016. I don’t see him winning PA or MI again. With states like AZ and NC going blue I think the identity politics in this country will eventually preclude a Republican from ever winning a national election going forward.
We've heard that before.
Did you know that in the last couple of weeks Democrats have been worrying that battlegrounds Ohio and Florida are turning reliably red?
Republicans were a minority from the 50s-90s, but elected Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan, each of them winning at least one election in a landslide.
Hoping you’re correct.
BTW didn’t Florida just give millions of felons the right to vote? I can imagine which way they’ll lean.
You are aware that Trump passed a prison reform bill, right? Now, who do you think those ex-cons will be grateful to?
(01-21-2019 03:14 PM)atsKnight Wrote: [ -> ] (01-21-2019 02:52 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (01-21-2019 02:46 PM)atsKnight Wrote: [ -> ]If they said that the machines screwed up the election count and we had to redo the presidential election today, who do you think wins, Trump or Hillary?
Trump would win bigger. Hillary has proven she is a total fruitcake beyond anyone’s denial.
I can't see how you get there. Hillary has not acquitted herself well since the election, but I just watched a mid-term (which usually favor Republicans) where LOTS of people showed up to vote for anything with a D next to its name. It looked clear that Trump lost support despite having 2 years of a strong economy.
I don't think it matters if the Dems are running Kamala or Hillary or Bernie or Menendez, people are excited to show up and vote against Trump.
I can't see a large enough portion of the electorate that he can swing, barring an alien invasion that is defeated by the Space Force or something similar.
It’s far too early to predict what the political landscape will be in the fall of 2020. While there is a decent sized part to the population that would vote for a goat over Trump, where the 2106 election turned was in the rust belt.
If those states have good economies.......Trump stands a pretty decent chance of holding them.
Time and the shifting political winds will tell.......the vast majority of the electorate forgets what happened three months ago, let alone damm near two years.
(01-21-2019 08:11 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.npr.org/2019/01/21/677834764...-candidacy
No big surprise. All along, it was expected she would make it official today.
I wonder who the first major male candidate on the Democratic side will be. We're still waiting on all the B's - Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg and Beto (possibly Brown too).
I watched this wretched human being try to ruin a fine man... Brett Kavanaugh, for political points. All I can say is that I hope the fleas of a thousand camels descend upon her armpits....
I would gouge my own eyes out before voting for Kamala Harris...
Do y'all think the dems are going to tear themselves apart over 2020?
Seeing the backlash Tulsi and camila got on day 1 (some are even questioning her race and claims of being African-American -- I mean, wow..), I'm imagining how much of an absolute bloodbath it's going to be. Let's say the so-called "frontrunner" has 10-15% going into Iowa. That means 85-90% want to see that person destroyed, just so their candidate can get ahead.
A deep field worked with the GOP, because we at least have some sense of decency. We left it all out on the field. We had our favorites, but for the most part, got behind Trump once he was the guy.
The dems better be careful to not end up with the "wrong" candidate, because if so, I can see their party rips to shreds from the inside.
______________
It's also going to be SO EASY for Trump to manipulate the dems' emotions. Holy cow. He may even be able to select their candidate himself, just because of how whatever he says is good, the dems instinctively think is bad, and vice versa.
(01-22-2019 01:02 PM)Kronke Wrote: [ -> ]Do y'all think the dems are going to tear themselves apart over 2020?
it's already begun....
this is what happens when the bulk of their policy amounts to walking into the dime store with empty pockets....
(01-22-2019 01:02 PM)Kronke Wrote: [ -> ]Do y'all think the dems are going to tear themselves apart over 2020?
If this is the truth then by all means lets stay out of their way.
My guess? I have no idea so until otherwise proven wrong I believe Harris is the frontrunner.
Progressive? Check
Female? Check
Minority? Check
Senator? Check
Lawyer? Check
That's an almost perfect liberal CV.
(01-22-2019 01:10 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote: [ -> ] (01-22-2019 01:02 PM)Kronke Wrote: [ -> ]Do y'all think the dems are going to tear themselves apart over 2020?
If this is the truth then by all means lets stay out of their way.
My guess? I have no idea so until otherwise proven wrong I believe Harris is the frontrunner.
Progressive? Check
Female? Check
Minority? Check
Senator? Check
Lawyer? Check
That's an almost perfect liberal CV.
she was a prosecutor... and that means she helped put Black lives in jail... that could hurt...and some dems are already bashing her for not supporting "trans" prison inmates to get sexual reassignment surgery... (I kid you not)...
Even though she checks all the boxes, if she goes into Iowa with a measly 15-20%, that still means a vast majority of the rabid, lunatic dems want to see her destroyed in favor of their candidate.
I've already said it, and after thinking some more, I think she will be the dems' Jeb. She doesn't have the energy or personality to weather what is about to be unleashed.
The optimal strategy is to fly under the radar for the first few months. The goal should be to hang around the top 5, and not draw flak until you absolutely must.
Quote:Progressive? Check
Female? Check
Minority? Check
Senator? Check
Lawyer? Check
Who was the last Democrat to run exactly like this, minus being a woman?
![[Image: images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSAh2BEvPPsN7aGVejUsmq...37GsvOJzOs]](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSAh2BEvPPsN7aGVejUsmqchl9TSAdmZH9kvyd3s437GsvOJzOs)
All she will have to do is sit back. Hell, I'd tell her to not even bother with Iowa and position herself as the female Obama, chin held high, too good for the fray. I could write devastating political ads like that that target moderate dems and independents all day and twice on Sunday. The cray-cray all pulling the lever for D no matter if it was Mao himself so why even pander to them?
If she can keep the crazy in check, she's debating Trump in late 2020.
(01-21-2019 01:05 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote: [ -> ]Glad to see Senator Hinges on heels is running, her past record as a prosecutor will damage her.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I can see the question now...
What % of blacks compared to whites have you put in prison? I think, just a guess but that number will be somewhere around 70% to 30% . When you do that it takes the argument out of black vs white in the Justice department. Something that plays between races. The next question, as a prosecutor do you only uphold the laws you agree with? I assume her answer will be of course not. Next question. What is your views in Illegals crossing the border and upholding the laws to send them back?
Her role as a prosecutor can really box her in on a couple key democratic key points
(01-22-2019 01:39 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote: [ -> ]Quote:Progressive? Check
Female? Check
Minority? Check
Senator? Check
Lawyer? Check
Who was the last Democrat to run exactly like this, minus being a woman?
All she will have to do is sit back. Hell, I'd tell her to not even bother with Iowa and position herself as the female Obama, chin held high, too good for the fray. I could write devastating political ads like that that target moderate dems and independents all day and twice on Sunday. The cray-cray all pulling the lever for D no matter if it was Mao himself so why even pander to them?
If she can keep the crazy in check, she's debating Trump in late 2020.
I wouldn't bet against her as the front runner for the left.....
whoever it ends up being, they'll have their smaller hands full of shite face mask on....he'll crush whoever it is....
(01-21-2019 06:05 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote: [ -> ]The Democrats have to run a candidate who can beat Trump in MI, MN, WI and PA. and, in my opinion, Joe Biden can. I don't know if Kamala Harris can.
Quite frankly, those are the only states that matter.
https://csnbbs.com/thread-868586-post-15...id15840779
to think, all those posts didn't go to waste ...
Mensa adopts my line of thinking ...
RUN THE TABLE
After Trump, I'm not sure someone's sexual proclivities and preferences are really a point to debate.
(01-22-2019 04:12 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote: [ -> ]After Trump, I'm not sure someone's sexual proclivities and preferences are really a point to debate.
Suburban women. She is the homewrecking side chick. Trump is just the typical man they think we all are anyway. It is a double standard, but Trump would leverage the phuck out of it.
(01-22-2019 04:12 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote: [ -> ]After Trump, I'm not sure someone's sexual proclivities and preferences are really a point to debate.
lol... unless Trump slept with Willie Brown... I think this should be a point of debate.
jk.
I do loathe Kamala. (Willie Brown is actually likeable)
![[Image: williebrown.jpg]](http://sfappeal.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/williebrown.jpg)
![[Image: Willie-Brown-e1476627100280.jpg]](https://hungarianfreepress.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Willie-Brown-e1476627100280.jpg)