(03-21-2024 05:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 04:54 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 04:12 PM)BruinNation Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 03:46 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 12:41 PM)ccd494 Wrote:  "Despite our numerous phone calls, and even our University President holding a boom box outside of Greg Sankey's window, the SEC and Big Ten have not indicated a desire to add the University of Miami. [...]"

"But we've added BY to our speed dial, and put chocolates and flowers in our Amazon cart to send his way, with same-day delivery, should things go PAC-boom suddenly."

Lol! If you thought Utah and Arizona State were “vocally reluctant” to joining the nBig 12, can you imagine the fit from Miami?

Pretty sure there are no Hershey kisses being shipped from Coral Gables to the office of the nBig 12 commissioner.

If Miami’s plan D scenario of landing in the nBig 12 did happen, it would not be some joyous moment. More like a moody teenager with earphones walking straight past step-dad Yormark to his room and shutting the door. Sebastian isn’t coming down for dinner.

Meh. Perhaps the admins at Miami would be unruly, but, from a football perspective, Miami would probably be just fine in the Big 12 as their backup plan, likely a short-term rental with everyone on the same page.

It's funny how so many Pac snobs thought the Truck Stoppers would never be a good fit for the 4c, until they were. The new insult is "ACC schools are too good for the Big 12" instead of "Pac schools are too good for the Big 12". I think it's better to look at this as "A hierarchy is coalescing, and Conference 3 will house a bunch of former Pac and ACC schools, as well as a bunch of Big 12 schools" instead of "Big 12 Truck Stop nope". Should it have been the Pac or the ACC instead of the Big 12? Probably. But Yormark proved more nimble and forward thinking than Kliavkoff, and Phillips' hands are tied by his high value members.

The Big 12 was raided first, reloaded first, and was located central to the PAC which was next and the ACC which may be about to happen. To coalesce schools from the East and West coast it is best to have a centrally located conference to build around. There were no accidents in the timing.

You’ve obviously not studied the hammer and anvil tactic

I eventually see a B12 / ACC merger -

More or less:
*they could go to SEC/B1G
WEST - Cal, Stanford*, Colorado, Arizona, ASU, TCU - [Utah to the B1G]
CENTRAL - Kansas*, Iowa State, Ok State, TTU, Baylor, Houston
SOUTHEAST - Miami*, Ga Tech, UCF, Wake, SMU
EAST - Louisville, Cinci, WV. Va Tech, Pitt, Syracuse

Doesn't make the cut: Boston College

Everyone else gone

This is a solid P3 conference that has too many big names to be shunted/ignored

(03-21-2024 03:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Or, more likely, the P2 are uninterested in UVA at all, at least for now. They might be a flagship, but they're a far cry from UNC-level. Smaller state, slightly weaker Academics, overshadowed in their own State by Virginia Tech (which is a better SEC Cultural fit to boot), far weaker Athletics.

Virginia is more highly regarded academically than UNC.

(03-21-2024 04:17 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 04:12 PM)BruinNation Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 03:46 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 12:41 PM)ccd494 Wrote:  "Despite our numerous phone calls, and even our University President holding a boom box outside of Greg Sankey's window, the SEC and Big Ten have not indicated a desire to add the University of Miami. [...]"

"But we've added BY to our speed dial, and put chocolates and flowers in our Amazon cart to send his way, with same-day delivery, should things go PAC-boom suddenly."

Lol! If you thought Utah and Arizona State were “vocally reluctant” to joining the nBig 12, can you imagine the fit from Miami?

Pretty sure there are no Hershey kisses being shipped from Coral Gables to the office of the nBig 12 commissioner.

If Miami’s plan D scenario of landing in the bBig 12 did happen, it would not be some joyous moment. More like a moody teenager with earphones walking straight past step-dad Yormark to his room and shutting the door. Sebastian isn’t coming down for dinner.

Sorta like what would occur if ND was ever forced into the Big Ten.

Don't worry, we're happy to help you remain independent, and I'm sure most of the SEC would also love to do their part. Just call us if you need some more games scheduled, we'll make room for you.

(03-21-2024 04:40 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 04:31 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  ND playing MAC schools, ACC not hurting their sch without FSU & Clemson

Here are ND's schedules from 2024-2037.

https://fbschedules.com/ncaa/notre-dame/


I have highlighted all of the MAC schools on there.

I didn't see any after this season, although I concede that there are slots where they could be added.

I think that may become a one off, thing of the past going forward with the new AD (former NBC Sports executive) who took over this month.




2024

08/31 - at Texas A&M
09/07 - Northern Illinois
09/14 - at Purdue
09/21 - Miami (Ohio)
09/28 - Louisville
10/12 - Stanford^
10/19 - at Georgia Tech (at Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
10/26 - vs Navy (in East Rutherford, NJ)
11/09 - Florida State
11/16 - Virginia
11/23 - vs Army (Yankee Stadium)*
11/30 - at USC

^Last Stanford game on ND's schedules going forward

*Army only recently added when Miami moved its ND game to next year


2025

09/13 - Texas A&M
09/20 - Purdue
09/27 - at Arkansas
10/18 - USC
11/08 - Navy
TBA - NC State
TBA - Syracuse
TBA - at Boston College
TBA - at Miami (FL)
TBA - at Pitt

2026

09/05 - vs Wisconsin (in Green Bay, WI)
09/26 - at Purdue
10/03 - at North Carolina
10/17 - Virginia
10/31 - at Navy
11/28 - at USC
TBA - Michigan State
TBA - Syracuse
TBA - Miami (FL)
TBA - at Florida State

2027

09/04 - Purdue
10/02 - Georgia Tech
11/06 - Virginia Tech
TBA - Navy
TBA - at Clemson
TBA - at Duke
TBA - at Michigan State
TBA - at Wake Forest

2028

09/16 - Arkansas
09/23 - at Purdue
11/04 - at Virginia Tech
TBA - Boston College
TBA - Clemson
TBA - Miami (FL)
TBA - at Navy
TBA - at Pitt

2029

09/01 - Alabama
09/15 - at USF
10/06 - at NC State
11/03 - Georgia Tech
11/10 - at Florida State
TBA - Wake Forest
TBA - Navy
TBA - at Syracuse

2030

08/31 - Indiana
09/14 - at Alabama
11/02 - at Louisville
TBA - Duke
TBA - Florida State
TBA - North Carolina
TBA - at Boston College
TBA - at Navy

2031

09/01 - at Clemson
09/13 - USF
09/27 - at Indiana
10/11 - at Virginia
11/15 - Florida
11/22 - NC State
TBA - Miami (FL)
TBA - Navy
TBA - at Pitt
TBA - at North Carolina

2032

09/11 - at Florida
10/30 - at Georgia Tech
TBA - Florida State
TBA - Louisville
TBA - Wake Forest
TBA - at Miami (FL)
TBA - at Navy

2033

09/03 - at Michigan
09/24 - at Duke
11/05 - Virginia Tech
TBA - Pitt
TBA - at Boston College
TBA - at Louisville

2034

09/02 - Michigan
10/26 - at Miami (FL)
TBA - Clemson
TBA - Syracuse
TBA - Virginia
TBA - at Pitt

2035

11/10 - at NC State
TBA - Boston College
TBA - Duke
TBA - at Virginia
TBA - at Louisville

2036

09/01 - at Virginia Tech
09/27 - at Georgia Tech
10/04 - Florida State
11/01 - Pitt
11/08 - North Carolina

2037

10/03 - NC State
TBA - Miami (FL)
TBA - at Clemson
TBA - at Syracuse
TBA - at Wake Forest

Plenty of room on that list for some more SEC and/or B1G opponents. Michigan, LSU, Alabama, A&M, Texas, tOSU, Georgia...whatever, we'll all make it work. I would say that for ND, and possibly only for ND, independence makes scheduling easier rather than harder. Also, future Clemson and FSU games could end up non-conference b/c both will have a free game once their rivals are in Conference.

(03-21-2024 05:36 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 03:34 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Or, more likely, the P2 are uninterested in UVA at all, at least for now. They might be a flagship, but they're a far cry from UNC-level. Smaller state, slightly weaker Academics, overshadowed in their own State by Virginia Tech (which is a better SEC Cultural fit to boot), far weaker Athletics.

Virginia is more highly regarded academically than UNC.

By what metric?

My friends in Shanghai think otherwise:

https://www.shanghairanking.com/rankings/arwu/2023

31: UNC
201-300: UVA

Avg SAT:
UVA: 1445
UNC: 1416

USN&WR:
UNC: 22(t)
UVA: 24(t)

Looks like a mixed bag to me, with an edge to UNC b/c they're so much more accomplished in the Research Department. #31 in the WORLD is mighty impressive.

(03-21-2024 04:12 PM)BruinNation Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 03:46 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 12:41 PM)ccd494 Wrote:  "Despite our numerous phone calls, and even our University President holding a boom box outside of Greg Sankey's window, the SEC and Big Ten have not indicated a desire to add the University of Miami. [...]"

"But we've added BY to our speed dial, and put chocolates and flowers in our Amazon cart to send his way, with same-day delivery, should things go PAC-boom suddenly."

Lol! If you thought Utah and Arizona State were “vocally reluctant” to joining the nBig 12, can you imagine the fit from Miami?

Pretty sure there are no Hershey kisses being shipped from Coral Gables to the office of the nBig 12 commissioner.

If Miami’s plan D scenario of landing in the nBig 12 did happen, it would not be some joyous moment. More like a moody teenager with earphones walking straight past step-dad Yormark to his room and shutting the door. Sebastian isn’t coming down for dinner.

So the convicts would stick their nose up in the air at the Big 12? Hardly think so.

(03-21-2024 04:54 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 04:12 PM)BruinNation Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 03:46 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 12:41 PM)ccd494 Wrote:  "Despite our numerous phone calls, and even our University President holding a boom box outside of Greg Sankey's window, the SEC and Big Ten have not indicated a desire to add the University of Miami. [...]"

"But we've added BY to our speed dial, and put chocolates and flowers in our Amazon cart to send his way, with same-day delivery, should things go PAC-boom suddenly."

Lol! If you thought Utah and Arizona State were “vocally reluctant” to joining the nBig 12, can you imagine the fit from Miami?

Pretty sure there are no Hershey kisses being shipped from Coral Gables to the office of the nBig 12 commissioner.

If Miami’s plan D scenario of landing in the nBig 12 did happen, it would not be some joyous moment. More like a moody teenager with earphones walking straight past step-dad Yormark to his room and shutting the door. Sebastian isn’t coming down for dinner.

Meh. Perhaps the admins at Miami would be unruly, but, from a football perspective, Miami would probably be just fine in the Big 12 as their backup plan, likely a short-term rental with everyone on the same page.

It's funny how so many Pac snobs thought the Truck Stoppers would never be a good fit for the 4c, until they were. The new insult is "ACC schools are too good for the Big 12" instead of "Pac schools are too good for the Big 12". I think it's better to look at this as "A hierarchy is coalescing, and Conference 3 will house a bunch of former Pac and ACC schools, as well as a bunch of Big 12 schools" instead of "Big 12 Truck Stop nope". Should it have been the Pac or the ACC instead of the Big 12? Probably. But Yormark proved more nimble and forward thinking than Kliavkoff, and Phillips' hands are tied by his high value members.

Colorado and Arizona are significantly better schools than Utah and Arizona St. and they had no problem with the Big 12. I guess its the relative newbie AAU schools and the ancient ones (Cal/Stanford) who are arrogant.

I had no idea UNC, UVA were this poor in ratings. Their last matchup didn't even get a million viewers.

FSU and Clemson are the clear top choices. But after that..... other factors are being considered if some schools are "shoo-ins" and others are not.

(03-21-2024 06:33 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  I had no idea UNC, UVA were this poor in ratings. Their last matchup didn't even get a million viewers.

FSU and Clemson are the clear top choices. But after that..... other factors are being considered if some schools are "shoo-ins" and others are not.

Why is 4+ million the arbitrary cutoff?

(03-21-2024 06:47 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:33 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  I had no idea UNC, UVA were this poor in ratings. Their last matchup didn't even get a million viewers.

FSU and Clemson are the clear top choices. But after that..... other factors are being considered if some schools are "shoo-ins" and others are not.

Why is 4+ million the arbitrary cutoff?

Because 5 million is the lower end of the desired scale for audience in a P5 matchup.

(03-21-2024 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:47 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:33 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  I had no idea UNC, UVA were this poor in ratings. Their last matchup didn't even get a million viewers.

FSU and Clemson are the clear top choices. But after that..... other factors are being considered if some schools are "shoo-ins" and others are not.

Why is 4+ million the arbitrary cutoff?

Because 5 million is the lower end of the desired scale for audience in a P5 matchup.

So now we're saying four 3 millions doesn't equal three 4 millions? Must be that new math all the kids are using on Twatter

(03-21-2024 07:02 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:47 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:33 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  I had no idea UNC, UVA were this poor in ratings. Their last matchup didn't even get a million viewers.

FSU and Clemson are the clear top choices. But after that..... other factors are being considered if some schools are "shoo-ins" and others are not.

Why is 4+ million the arbitrary cutoff?

Because 5 million is the lower end of the desired scale for audience in a P5 matchup.

So now we're saying four 3 millions doesn't equal three 4 millions? Must be that new math all the kids are using on Twatter

Don't be absurd. ESPN and FOX make more money in advertising when two football teams playing each other can average more than 5 million viewers per contest. Keep in mind 17-18 million is not unusual for a really big game like Ohio State vs Michigan, or other such contests. 5 million is the low bar on what the networks want. 10 million plus are very profitable. If a school averages 4 million they are borderline because they need to face a 6 million average school to hopefully get 10 million viewers. Record and brand are part of this. If you have a 3 million average for viewers per game you might bust 5 million often enough but likely won't produce too many 10 million games.

Where the SEC and Big 10 leave you behind is that have numerous combinations capable of 10 million and a few capable of surpassing 15 million, but they also have higher lows in that more will average 6 or 7 million which pulls the averages of the lowest up even more. In the ACC the bottom of the league drags Clemson and FSU down.

(03-21-2024 07:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 07:02 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:47 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:33 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  I had no idea UNC, UVA were this poor in ratings. Their last matchup didn't even get a million viewers.

FSU and Clemson are the clear top choices. But after that..... other factors are being considered if some schools are "shoo-ins" and others are not.

Why is 4+ million the arbitrary cutoff?

Because 5 million is the lower end of the desired scale for audience in a P5 matchup.

So now we're saying four 3 millions doesn't equal three 4 millions? Must be that new math all the kids are using on Twatter

Don't be absurd. ESPN and FOX make more money in advertising when two football teams playing each other can average more than 5 million viewers per contest. Keep in mind 17-18 million is not unusual for a really big game like Ohio State vs Michigan, or other such contests. 5 million is the low bar on what the networks want. 10 million plus are very profitable. If a school averages 4 million they are borderline because they need to face a 6 million average school to hopefully get 10 million viewers. Record and brand are part of this. If you have a 3 million average for viewers per game you might bust 5 million often enough but likely won't produce too many 10 million games.

Where the SEC and Big 10 leave you behind is that have numerous combinations capable of 10 million and a few capable of surpassing 15 million, but they also have higher lows in that more will average 6 or 7 million which pulls the averages of the lowest up even more. In the ACC the bottom of the league drags Clemson and FSU down.

This should be required reading for uninformed posters. It’s why I think that WSU and OSU are more intriguing than many assume ( they had 3 games last year between the 2 of them in the 4.3m-5.7m range) and it’s why Miami is so much more intriguing to the P2 than, say, UVA.

(03-21-2024 03:14 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 02:53 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 02:04 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 01:59 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 01:52 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Source?

The article linked to at the head of this discussion thread. It's source is an anonymous source that talked to the reporter:

Quote: "At the moment, UM does not have an invitation to join the Southeastern Conference or Big 10, according to a source with knowledge of the matter. The source said UM would listen if either conference called, but its hands are tied at this point."

Miami doesn't have an invitation to the B1G, but I'd say there's a pretty good chance we have received a wink/nod "invitation" to the B1G good for use once we've escaped the ACC.

Official or unofficial, they serve about the same purpose while we wait for the ACC to fall apart

Schools contact the conferences...conferences don't contact the schools and don't give out invites until a school is 'available' and 'vetted' - even 'vetted and PETTEDTM" Remember the UO/Udub scenario?

...and love 'em or hate 'em, NO denying Miami is a national brand, and are a half-step from getting back to 'those' days... and would be a nice addition to either of the P2, which would probably provide that boost they need to GET back to the 'U' days...

Typically, it seems the presidents talk to each other. When its serious, the conference talks to the prospective member. After that it reaches the end stage where the commissioner tries to sell the addition to the networks and to all the members.

oh yeah, LOADS of 'off the record' meetings and discussions... but 'officially', the 'invite' is after the school 'inquires'... all that to say, Miami is a proud member of the ACC... for now... and perhaps, for awhile, who knows... the 'wild card' here is their private school status - not sure if that makes it better or worse as to 'making a move'...

(03-21-2024 07:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 07:02 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:47 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:33 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  I had no idea UNC, UVA were this poor in ratings. Their last matchup didn't even get a million viewers.

FSU and Clemson are the clear top choices. But after that..... other factors are being considered if some schools are "shoo-ins" and others are not.

Why is 4+ million the arbitrary cutoff?

Because 5 million is the lower end of the desired scale for audience in a P5 matchup.

So now we're saying four 3 millions doesn't equal three 4 millions? Must be that new math all the kids are using on Twatter

Don't be absurd. ESPN and FOX make more money in advertising when two football teams playing each other can average more than 5 million viewers per contest. Keep in mind 17-18 million is not unusual for a really big game like Ohio State vs Michigan, or other such contests. 5 million is the low bar on what the networks want. 10 million plus are very profitable. If a school averages 4 million they are borderline because they need to face a 6 million average school to hopefully get 10 million viewers. Record and brand are part of this. If you have a 3 million average for viewers per game you might bust 5 million often enough but likely won't produce too many 10 million games.

Where the SEC and Big 10 leave you behind is that have numerous combinations capable of 10 million and a few capable of surpassing 15 million, but they also have higher lows in that more will average 6 or 7 million which pulls the averages of the lowest up even more. In the ACC the bottom of the league drags Clemson and FSU down.

Can average? Really? We’re going on “can average”?

Why the Sam Hill does ESPN have ESPN+ if they only want teams that “can average” 4+ million?

lol that’s absurd. All of the sudden advertising money doesn’t add up, folks. It’s only about the handful of mega games yet ESPN+, CBSSN, Big Ten Net, ACCN, FOX Sports, Ballys etc all exist

(03-21-2024 07:02 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:47 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:33 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  I had no idea UNC, UVA were this poor in ratings. Their last matchup didn't even get a million viewers.

FSU and Clemson are the clear top choices. But after that..... other factors are being considered if some schools are "shoo-ins" and others are not.

Why is 4+ million the arbitrary cutoff?

Because 5 million is the lower end of the desired scale for audience in a P5 matchup.

So now we're saying four 3 millions doesn't equal three 4 millions? Must be that new math all the kids are using on Twatter

1. Literally, 4 x 3 million viewer games are somewhat less valuable than 3 x 4 million viewer games. The hardest thing to do now in advertising is reach hard-to-reach viewers. So the 1 million viewers who DONT watch the 3M game but DO watch the 4M game are more valuable than 1 million viewers who watch both games. The ones who watch both games are easier to reach.

2. You're carrying an unsupported assumption that a different data set with different criteria would yield a different result. Most likely, if you counted 3M+ games, the shape of the graph would be much the same.

It's POSSIBLE you'd get a vastly different picture if you used different selection criteria, but not the way to bet.

Using your example, the school with 3 4M viewer games probably has a 4th game with 3M viewers.

(03-21-2024 07:35 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 07:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 07:02 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:47 PM)esayem Wrote:  Why is 4+ million the arbitrary cutoff?

Because 5 million is the lower end of the desired scale for audience in a P5 matchup.

So now we're saying four 3 millions doesn't equal three 4 millions? Must be that new math all the kids are using on Twatter

Don't be absurd. ESPN and FOX make more money in advertising when two football teams playing each other can average more than 5 million viewers per contest. Keep in mind 17-18 million is not unusual for a really big game like Ohio State vs Michigan, or other such contests. 5 million is the low bar on what the networks want. 10 million plus are very profitable. If a school averages 4 million they are borderline because they need to face a 6 million average school to hopefully get 10 million viewers. Record and brand are part of this. If you have a 3 million average for viewers per game you might bust 5 million often enough but likely won't produce too many 10 million games.

Where the SEC and Big 10 leave you behind is that have numerous combinations capable of 10 million and a few capable of surpassing 15 million, but they also have higher lows in that more will average 6 or 7 million which pulls the averages of the lowest up even more. In the ACC the bottom of the league drags Clemson and FSU down.

Can average? Really? We’re going on “can average”?

Why the Sam Hill does ESPN have ESPN+ if they only want teams that “can average” 4+ million?

lol that’s absurd. All of the sudden advertising money doesn’t add up, folks. It’s only about the handful of mega games yet ESPN+, CBSSN, Big Ten Net, ACCN, FOX Sports, Ballys etc all exist

JRsec is over-estimating the current role of advertising. The amount of advertising out there doesn't support the amount of money going to sports rights.

ESPN+ is a streaming service. A year or two ago and more, it seems like everybody was throwing money at content for their streaming services. That gold rush is over. I suspect the American Athletic Conference contract (in 2019 and then the 2021 renegotiation for 13-14 schools) was so valuable partially because it was feeding content to ESPN+. The Big 12 Tier 3 package (and some other games I think) went to ESPN+ with much hullabaloo.

Notice you didn't see ESPN chasing the PAC contract to feed ESPN+. ESPN+ is an experiment which has probably hit its limits. It's a useful thing for ESPN to have, it;'s a place for overflow content, it lets them buy up cheap content (midmajor college sports) and have a place to warehouse it.

ESPN streaming their premier content is a different ballgame.

Quote:CBSSN, Big Ten Net, ACCN, FOX Sports, Ballys etc all exist

Those all exist because of carriage fees, a declining factor. (CBS-SN barely exists, Ballys is going through Chapter 11). Two years ago, three years ago, college football and basketball was a commodity to fill windows on ESPN 2 and ESPN-U and FS1 to prop up those carriage fees. Now that seems to be much less of a factor.

(03-21-2024 08:21 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 07:35 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 07:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 07:02 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Because 5 million is the lower end of the desired scale for audience in a P5 matchup.

So now we're saying four 3 millions doesn't equal three 4 millions? Must be that new math all the kids are using on Twatter

Don't be absurd. ESPN and FOX make more money in advertising when two football teams playing each other can average more than 5 million viewers per contest. Keep in mind 17-18 million is not unusual for a really big game like Ohio State vs Michigan, or other such contests. 5 million is the low bar on what the networks want. 10 million plus are very profitable. If a school averages 4 million they are borderline because they need to face a 6 million average school to hopefully get 10 million viewers. Record and brand are part of this. If you have a 3 million average for viewers per game you might bust 5 million often enough but likely won't produce too many 10 million games.

Where the SEC and Big 10 leave you behind is that have numerous combinations capable of 10 million and a few capable of surpassing 15 million, but they also have higher lows in that more will average 6 or 7 million which pulls the averages of the lowest up even more. In the ACC the bottom of the league drags Clemson and FSU down.

Can average? Really? We’re going on “can average”?

Why the Sam Hill does ESPN have ESPN+ if they only want teams that “can average” 4+ million?

lol that’s absurd. All of the sudden advertising money doesn’t add up, folks. It’s only about the handful of mega games yet ESPN+, CBSSN, Big Ten Net, ACCN, FOX Sports, Ballys etc all exist

JRsec is over-estimating the current role of advertising. The amount of advertising out there doesn't support the amount of money going to sports rights.

ESPN+ is a streaming service. A year or two ago and more, it seems like everybody was throwing money at content for their streaming services. That gold rush is over. I suspect the American Athletic Conference contract (in 2019 and then the 2021 renegotiation for 13-14 schools) was so valuable partially because it was feeding content to ESPN+. The Big 12 Tier 3 package (and some other games I think) went to ESPN+ with much hullabaloo.

Notice you didn't see ESPN chasing the PAC contract to feed ESPN+. ESPN+ is an experiment which has probably hit its limits. It's a useful thing for ESPN to have, it;'s a place for overflow content, it lets them buy up cheap content (midmajor college sports) and have a place to warehouse it.

ESPN streaming their premier content is a different ballgame.

Quote:CBSSN, Big Ten Net, ACCN, FOX Sports, Ballys etc all exist

Those all exist because of carriage fees, a declining factor. (CBS-SN barely exists, Ballys is going through Chapter 11). Two years ago, three years ago, college football and basketball was a commodity to fill windows on ESPN 2 and ESPN-U and FS1 to prop up those carriage fees. Now that seems to be much less of a factor.

I'm not overestimating anything because I didn't say how much the advertising was worth but that there are plateaus in viewership which generate higher rates. Show me where there was an over estimation. Viewership plateaus for ad rates have been around a long time. Do try again. And those rates are for OTA and have nada to do with streaming, nada!

(03-21-2024 07:35 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 07:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 07:02 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-21-2024 06:47 PM)esayem Wrote:  Why is 4+ million the arbitrary cutoff?

Because 5 million is the lower end of the desired scale for audience in a P5 matchup.

So now we're saying four 3 millions doesn't equal three 4 millions? Must be that new math all the kids are using on Twatter

Don't be absurd. ESPN and FOX make more money in advertising when two football teams playing each other can average more than 5 million viewers per contest. Keep in mind 17-18 million is not unusual for a really big game like Ohio State vs Michigan, or other such contests. 5 million is the low bar on what the networks want. 10 million plus are very profitable. If a school averages 4 million they are borderline because they need to face a 6 million average school to hopefully get 10 million viewers. Record and brand are part of this. If you have a 3 million average for viewers per game you might bust 5 million often enough but likely won't produce too many 10 million games.

Where the SEC and Big 10 leave you behind is that have numerous combinations capable of 10 million and a few capable of surpassing 15 million, but they also have higher lows in that more will average 6 or 7 million which pulls the averages of the lowest up even more. In the ACC the bottom of the league drags Clemson and FSU down.

Can average? Really? We’re going on “can average”?

Why the Sam Hill does ESPN have ESPN+ if they only want teams that “can average” 4+ million?

lol that’s absurd. All of the sudden advertising money doesn’t add up, folks. It’s only about the handful of mega games yet ESPN+, CBSSN, Big Ten Net, ACCN, FOX Sports, Ballys etc all exist