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The preseason KenPom projections are out!

The AAC starts out ranked 9th. Last year they finished 8th, while C-USA was 10th.

UAB starts out ranked 90th. We finished 47th last season.

https://x.com/KevMo4UAB/status/1713962674562715990?s=20

KenPom has UAB going 18-12, and 10-8 in the AAC.

https://x.com/KevMo4UAB/status/1713964601983873198?s=20

There is a four-game stretch during the middle of the season that could prove pivotal. We are underdogs in all four games.

Memphis - home
North Texas - away
SMU - away
FAU - home

There’s not a nonconference game that I think we should excusably lose. Can’t afford it, not enough quality win opportunities. Here I was thinking AK had connections, upon his hire.

Anyhow, the stretch from Jan 28-Feb 18 will be the toughest stretch of the season. Pretty much what you listed. It will determine whether we get a tournament bye or not.

The first three games (Bradley, Clemson, Maryland/Davidson) will be no slouch either. In any event, our schedule in totality will be the strongest we've seen certainly under Kennedy, and possibly since Mike Davis.

(10-16-2023 12:20 PM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  There’s not a nonconference game that I think we should excusably lose. Can’t afford it, not enough quality win opportunities. Here I was thinking AK had connections, upon his hire.

Anyhow, the stretch from Jan 28-Feb 18 will be the toughest stretch of the season. Pretty much what you listed. It will determine whether we get a tournament bye or not.

Glad to see the unreasonable expectations have already started!

To Mike’s credit, he insisted on having the SOS to get an at-large bid. We just had too many poor performances in landmine games and went one and done in conference tournament to seal it.

(10-16-2023 12:43 PM)Frank Grimes Wrote:  

(10-16-2023 12:20 PM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  There’s not a nonconference game that I think we should excusably lose. Can’t afford it, not enough quality win opportunities. Here I was thinking AK had connections, upon his hire.

Anyhow, the stretch from Jan 28-Feb 18 will be the toughest stretch of the season. Pretty much what you listed. It will determine whether we get a tournament bye or not.

Glad to see the unreasonable expectations have already started!

Again, stay out of the portal if you don’t want expectations. We have 5 high major transfers on our roster and three top 10 Juco signees.

Didn’t think we’d be seeing a regression in expectations.

Maryland had no business in the Ncaa tournament last season. Clemson, schedules soft so they look respectable at the end. Davidson has regressed since moving conferences.

Top 90 so basically an NIT bid (which I'd take) ,but I think we're set for and NCAA tournament return. Good guard depth, heckuva frontcourt.

(10-16-2023 12:48 PM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  

(10-16-2023 12:43 PM)Frank Grimes Wrote:  

(10-16-2023 12:20 PM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  There’s not a nonconference game that I think we should excusably lose. Can’t afford it, not enough quality win opportunities. Here I was thinking AK had connections, upon his hire.

Anyhow, the stretch from Jan 28-Feb 18 will be the toughest stretch of the season. Pretty much what you listed. It will determine whether we get a tournament bye or not.

Glad to see the unreasonable expectations have already started!

Again, stay out of the portal if you don’t want expectations. We have 6 high major transfers on our roster and three top 10 Juco signees.

Didn’t think we’d be seeing a regression in expectations.

Maryland had no business in the Ncaa tournament last season. Clemson, schedules soft so they look respectable at the end. Davidson has regressed since moving conferences.

There’s a lot of middle ground in expecting to go undefeated in the OOC schedule and a regression in expectations. This is a quality OOC schedule we have, and one we likely won’t go undefeated against. CBSSports predicted Clemson to finish 4th in the ACC, and Maryland 4th in the Big Ten. Not to mention, Bradley, Furman, and Drake are quality teams as well. If you expect to go undefeated in our OOC games, you might as well just expect us to run the table.

If we suffer two losses or less (maybe 3, but likely 2) in the Non-Conference (assuming they’re to quality teams), we’ll be in good position to make the NCAA’s if we don’t crap the bed in conference play.

Yea I disagree this time, uabfan23… this is a strong schedule. I have high expectations. I am one of the people who gets accused of diving off the deep end for having very high expectations from our last two teams.

I expect us to have some losses out of the gate. But I think this schedule is strong enough to make up for it if we can get some good wins to negate those losses in the beginning, unless we drop one unexpectedly to a bottom dweller.

I expect us to hit a stride again towards the middle and end of the year. We can compete for an at large. We should absolutely be in contention for the conference champs.

Next year is when I will have the super high expectations from the beginning of the year. I expect us to start a little slow this year. I still have high expectations. The two things aren’t mutually exclusive. Hopefully I’m wrong and we come out hot out of the gate.

One of the biggest issues I see potentially with this team is a lack of size. The only two players we have with real size are Davis and shaver. Shaver looks like he will be a project, and probably not ready to play BIG minutes. Yax has decent size but isn’t a real post player or banger. Coleman is tall, but has legs like Manute Bol. He’ll get eaten alive in the post. No one else really has any size. We will miss jemison a lot.

I can respect y’all’s opinion.

I did want to add another True Big, but Yaxel was a package deal. So, that killed that thought.

Also, wanted to find a more crisp point guard who doesn’t check out mentally. Right now, it doesn’t sound like Ortiz will be starting at the 1. So, we’ll have to wait another year for that. Pretty much like everybody else. I just have concerns about the starting 1 and 5, when we need production.

There’s about 3-5 nonconference games that are make or break.
Bradley, the games in Asheville, Drake and possibly MTSU. I don’t expect MTSU to win CUSA. They are the preseason favorites, but Id pick Liberty.

The furman game would look stronger on the road. Probably the game our fans should have circled but we’ll end up drawing only 3k for.

Davis-Shaver
Coleman-Yax
White-Dunning-Butta
AJ-Ortiz-Hargrove
EG-Toney-Satterfield

I have concerns about our size as well. Not sure who is going to guard the Russian, or anybody built like him, but we hopefully have some kind of plan in place. One good thing about Yax is he is an elite rebounder. That is a skill that tends to translate well, so I’d be shocked if we didn’t get that out of him.

There is zero chance this team goes undefeated OOC this year in my mind. Too many quality opponents for that to happen. Too many new faces for that to happen. Too many unknowns for that to happen. I hope we are rounding into form come conference play and don’t lose too many games outside of Memphis and FAU. If we are expecting to go 14-4 in conference, that is also a stretch in my mind. If we go 10-3 and 12-6 in conference, I think that could put us in the conversation for the tournament.

I don't worry much about the Ruzzian. Their offense doesn't run through the post much, and he isn't particularly skilled. He isn't the type of player they post up 20 times a game and dump the ball down to him and let him go to work.

The play against us last year at home where he had a wide open dunk 3 ft from the basket, and managed to travel and turn the ball over, sums him up in a nutshell to me.

He looks imposing - Like a Great Value Brand Ivan Drago - but he is not very good.

The Ruzzian is a lesser version of Jemison to me.

Just like people on here slobbered over Jamarion Sharp from WKU (very different body types, I know). You see that guy play in person and you instantly do not lose sleep over him. He is goofy, gangly, untalented, and unable to run the floor and compete in a fast paced game. The layman sees 7'5" and instantly thinks he's a good basketball player. That couldn't be farther from the truth.

I don't want to harp on this too much but Samford is sitting at #139 in KenPom, they absolutely should have been on the schedule. If we swapped Samford at home for Alcorn St or McNeese St, or even punt the Arkansas State game to play at their place, this schedule is just about perfect.

Montevallo at home is right before Drake so that's fine with me. At Alabama A&M is also just a fun in-state contest.

AAC preseason KenPom has 6 teams in the top-100, CUSA last season had 3 (though all 3 were in the top-50). This is what I was excited for when the announcement was made. Losing Houston was a huge blow to the top of the conference, but this seems like it's as deep as the American has been in years.

(10-18-2023 10:09 AM)Auburn_Blazer Wrote:  I don't want to harp on this too much but Samford is sitting at #139 in KenPom, they absolutely should have been on the schedule. If we swapped Samford at home for Alcorn St or McNeese St, or even punt the Arkansas State game to play at their place, this schedule is just about perfect.

Montevallo at home is right before Drake so that's fine with me. At Alabama A&M is also just a fun in-state contest.

AAC preseason KenPom has 6 teams in the top-100, CUSA last season had 3 (though all 3 were in the top-50). This is what I was excited for when the announcement was made. Losing Houston was a huge blow to the top of the conference, but this seems like it's as deep as the American has been in years.

Neutral site Samford BJCC, Bill Harris or Bill Battle, or Boutwell. Call it the birmingham tipoff classic.

Alabama-Birmingham? C'mon, dude.

(10-18-2023 11:35 AM)UAB Band Dad Wrote:  Alabama-Birmingham? C'mon, dude.

I like it

A game against Samford would have been great. It needs to happen. I known a lot of folks from OTM who are on board the Bucky ball train.