Yeah right around 9 seems like a reasonable over/under for us. We aren't gonna lose out of conference and we're gonna beat UVA by a thousand, but lots of tough games on the slate in the Sun Belt. Especially considering we got USA and at Troy for our SBC West pair.

QB and especially WR are the main question marks, but I'm very confident in Cig and staff when it comes to QBs. McCloud, Barnett, or Griffis will be just fine.

(05-11-2023 09:39 AM)Colonel Angus Wrote:  S. Alabama is loaded with 19 of 22 starters returning. Really good QB returning and landed in the backfield. Their D should be top shelf. Really no excuse for them not to win the West.

I think Astate will be improved in all areas…with the exception of QB. If one of the QBs emerges who can at least manage the game, we will much improved over last year.

(05-10-2023 05:08 PM)PrideoftheStAte Wrote:  Coastal: 8 Push
JMU: 8.6 Under
Marshall: 7.3 Over
App State 6.6 Over
Georgia Southern: 5.2 Under
ODU: 3.9 Over
Georgia State: 3.3 Over

Troy: 9 Push
South Alabama: 7.7 Over
Louisiana: 7.7 Under
Southern Miss: 5.2 Over
Texas State 3.7 Under
Ark State 4.1 Over
La Monroe 2.8 Over

I'll go along with what this guy has above.

ODU is hard to figure out even for ODU fans. Offensively things should look different.
A new offensive coordinator, OL coach, and a new QB have come in from Fordham - an FCS team that piled up points and yards offensively the last 2 seasons using the same fast paced spread offense that is used by Tennessee. Last season ODU lost its Offensive Coordinator just a few weeks before the season started.

(05-11-2023 09:39 AM)Colonel Angus Wrote:  S. Alabama is loaded with 19 of 22 starters returning. Really good QB returning and landed in the backfield. Their D should be top shelf. Really no excuse for them not to win the West.

Well I’m sure Troy will be a difficult team to beat. They kept us from winning the division last year and could keep it from happening next year as well. Of course we have USM and Louisiana that will be coming for us this year and we draw Marshall and JMU from the East division. Texas State is a wildcard and I don’t know what to think of Arkansas State or ULM at this point. Despite returning a lot, we have a more difficult schedule this year. I think that’s reflected in our projected win total.

(05-11-2023 09:18 AM)SVHerd Wrote:  Not sold on JMU being that good. Who do they have coming back? Portal pickups?

Not about the over under but CC and Troy should be the easy favorites in the divisions.

JMU has to come to Marshall, so that's one loss for them. jk.

Just hope we can compete.

+1

JMU has to worry about the Utah St game. If there is any game on their schedule that is a statement game it's that one. CFB still thinks MTW conference is the second best under AAC. It's unwarrented, but its still believed to be.

(05-11-2023 02:30 PM)Johns1124 Wrote:  

(05-11-2023 09:18 AM)SVHerd Wrote:  Not sold on JMU being that good. Who do they have coming back? Portal pickups?

Not about the over under but CC and Troy should be the easy favorites in the divisions.

JMU has to come to Marshall, so that's one loss for them. jk.

Just hope we can compete.

+1

JMU has to worry about the Utah St game. If there is any game on their schedule that is a statement game it's that one. CFB still thinks MTW conference is the second best under AAC. It's unwarrented, but its still believed to be.

They got blasted by Weber St 35-7 last season. They are not good. Blake Anderson had a great first year there, but last year was atrocious. JMU will take that game by a few TDs.

(05-11-2023 11:00 AM)TTT Wrote:  

(05-10-2023 11:07 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  These are the expected win totals from Bill Connelly.

Coastal: 8
JMU: 8.6
Marshall: 7.3
App State 6.6
Georgia Southern: 5.2
ODU: 3.9
Georgia State: 3.3

Troy: 9
South Alabama: 7.7
Louisiana: 7.7
Southern Miss: 5.2
Texas State 3.7
Ark State 4.1
La Monroe 2.8

Thoughts on a few of these:

I think that JMU could be the best team in the East but it's hard to see them get to 9 wins. In their non-conference games they have a long trip to Utah State after consecutive trips to Virginia and Troy. If you can 2-2 in the first 4 games you have to go 7-1 the rest of the way in the Sun Belt East grind and against South. No real complete gimme games (other than UConn).

The one team I'll definitely take the over on is Georgia Southern. Call me a homer if you want, but I told people last year we had the skill position talent to be good on offense if we had good coaching and we ended up with the top total offense. Our SP+ returning production tanked because we lost our starting QB but we'll have an AAC starter this year who will probably be better. We also have a new DC who is likely to be better just by regression to the mean.

Leaning to taking the over for App State but it's not obvious. Scot Sloan is probably the perfect DC for the Sun Belt East (but I know from experience offenses like GS's and UNC's will still pose problems for him). They also have Coastal, GS, and Marshall in Boone. Not sold on their QB (App can't just put an athlete back there and score points like they did 2005-2013) or Clark but they have things going for them.

Wait...so this dude only thinks Southern Miss will win 5 games in Will Hall's 3rd year as HC at USM?

2021: 3 wins (Will Hall Year 1)
2022: 7 wins (Will Hall Year 2)
2023: this guy predicts 5 wins in Will Hall Year 3????

lol make this make sense.

in the reg. season last year, the vegas number opened at 4.5 and went to 5.5 ... w/o looking, I'm betting the mustard opens at 5.5 and never moves...

I took the over last year ... I'm not betting it this year until I find out more who will be behind center...

oh, yeah ... have you looked at our schedule?

that overconfident shite is what gets one arse whooped! our OOC is brutal + we only get one favor at home with a tough SBC slate...

(05-11-2023 02:33 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(05-11-2023 02:30 PM)Johns1124 Wrote:  

(05-11-2023 09:18 AM)SVHerd Wrote:  Not sold on JMU being that good. Who do they have coming back? Portal pickups?

Not about the over under but CC and Troy should be the easy favorites in the divisions.

JMU has to come to Marshall, so that's one loss for them. jk.

Just hope we can compete.

+1

JMU has to worry about the Utah St game. If there is any game on their schedule that is a statement game it's that one. CFB still thinks MTW conference is the second best under AAC. It's unwarrented, but its still believed to be.

They got blasted by Weber St 35-7 last season. They are not good. Blake Anderson had a great first year there, but last year was atrocious. JMU will take that game by a few TDs.

If someone says they think JMU should be worried about Bucknell, Johns will go along with it... Troy is the game I'm worried about in that early road stretch.

Damn shame how far Cajuns have fallen. Went from " King of the hill" to barely mediocre with one coaching hire.

(05-11-2023 07:02 PM)Craftycajun Wrote:  Damn shame how far Cajuns have fallen. Went from " King of the hill" to barely mediocre with one coaching hire.

(05-11-2023 07:02 PM)Craftycajun Wrote:  Damn shame how far Cajuns have fallen. Went from " King of the hill" to barely mediocre with one coaching hire.

Doesn’t change the facts in your statement, but you do understand the amount of talent that has left the building over the last 17 months? I get Dez was brought in the keep the culture but he is just now having somewhat of a normal offseason. Disregard the fact that we just lost Amos and Kam to the portal. It’s year two and these projections are extremely warranted.

Good news is the strength on our team is back in the trenches and at RB. This is supposed to be our deepest RB room in years…yes, you heard me correctly. If the OL can open some holes this year, look out. Oh, and Zeon Criss is a baller at QB.

(05-11-2023 09:31 AM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  

(05-11-2023 09:18 AM)SVHerd Wrote:  Not sold on JMU being that good. Who do they have coming back? Portal pickups?

Not about the over under but CC and Troy should be the easy favorites in the divisions.

JMU has to come to Marshall, so that's one loss for them. jk.

Just hope we can compete.

JMU is #34 in the nation in returning production. All they probably need is a competent QB.

GS has a way of making cup cakes look like world beaters so I say with a bit of trepidation JMU is the 23 cupcake. Trolling the chosen ones yes but mixed in with a dash of experience. My prediction JMU enjoys a plethora of ars whoopins. There’s no repeat. Reality is a bummer.

(05-11-2023 02:25 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(05-11-2023 09:39 AM)Colonel Angus Wrote:  S. Alabama is loaded with 19 of 22 starters returning. Really good QB returning and landed in the backfield. Their D should be top shelf. Really no excuse for them not to win the West.

Well I’m sure Troy will be a difficult team to beat. They kept us from winning the division last year and could keep it from happening next year as well. Of course we have USM and Louisiana that will be coming for us this year and we draw Marshall and JMU from the East division. Texas State is a wildcard and I don’t know what to think of Arkansas State or ULM at this point. Despite returning a lot, we have a more difficult schedule this year. I think that’s reflected in our projected win total.

Our schedule is taking a step up this year for sure. Having Marshall and JMU will be a huge challenge but I love the way the way that worked out. This should be our best team ever and we'll need it. Is it fall yet?

(05-11-2023 04:06 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(05-11-2023 11:00 AM)TTT Wrote:  Wait...so this dude only thinks Southern Miss will win 5 games in Will Hall's 3rd year as HC at USM?

2021: 3 wins (Will Hall Year 1)
2022: 7 wins (Will Hall Year 2)
2023: this guy predicts 5 wins in Will Hall Year 3????

lol make this make sense.

in the reg. season last year, the vegas number opened at 4.5 and went to 5.5 ... w/o looking, I'm betting the mustard opens at 5.5 and never moves...

I took the over last year ... I'm not betting it this year until I find out more who will be behind center...

oh, yeah ... have you looked at our schedule?

that overconfident shite is what gets one arse whooped! our OOC is brutal + we only get one favor at home with a tough SBC slate...

I don’t think the schedule’s all that different. OOC, it’s Alcorn instead of Northwestern St., Miss. St. instead of Liberty, and Fla. St. instead of Miami. The latter 2 were Ls last year anyway. Interdivision in-conference, we lose GSU & Coastal (again, both Ls last year) and gain App & ODU. I (briefly) looked up some numbers, and last year’s finish and this year’s projection had both SOSes in the mid-to-upper 90s.

The question is how much better will we be vs. how much better the rest of the SBCW will be. With still a huge question mark at QB, I don’t think it’s wise to predict gains just because another year has passed.

(05-12-2023 10:13 AM)HarborPointe Wrote:  

(05-11-2023 04:06 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(05-11-2023 11:00 AM)TTT Wrote:  Wait...so this dude only thinks Southern Miss will win 5 games in Will Hall's 3rd year as HC at USM?

2021: 3 wins (Will Hall Year 1)
2022: 7 wins (Will Hall Year 2)
2023: this guy predicts 5 wins in Will Hall Year 3????

lol make this make sense.

in the reg. season last year, the vegas number opened at 4.5 and went to 5.5 ... w/o looking, I'm betting the mustard opens at 5.5 and never moves...

I took the over last year ... I'm not betting it this year until I find out more who will be behind center...

oh, yeah ... have you looked at our schedule?

that overconfident shite is what gets one arse whooped! our OOC is brutal + we only get one favor at home with a tough SBC slate...

I don’t think the schedule’s all that different. OOC, it’s Alcorn instead of Northwestern St., Miss. St. instead of Liberty, and Fla. St. instead of Miami. The latter 2 were Ls last year anyway. Interdivision in-conference, we lose GSU & Coastal (again, both Ls last year) and gain App & ODU. I (briefly) looked up some numbers, and last year’s finish and this year’s projection had both SOSes in the mid-to-upper 90s.

The question is how much better will we be vs. how much better the rest of the SBCW will be. With still a huge question mark at QB, I don’t think it’s wise to predict gains just because another year has passed.

Alcorn W
@ FSU L
Tulane W
@ Ark State W
vs Tx State W
vs ODU W
@ USA L
@ App State W
vs ULM W
@ Louisiana W
@ MSU L
vs Troy W (because it's at home, otherwise I'd predict an L if it was away)

9-3 (7-1)

Edwards or Wiles are light years better than any QB we've had since Nick Mullens/2016. This is the year we make the big leap. Watch out folks. Only game I think you could probably go ahead and chalk up as L's are @ FSU, @ USA (althought it could be a toss in reality), and @ MSU. Every other game is favorable for USM when you consider the amount of production returning on both sides in addition to the much improved QB room.

If Southern Miss only has 5 wins this season and misses out on a bowl, you will have a ton a mad USM fans. I still hold our hope Hall can get us to 7 wins this season, mainly because this may the first season in 3 years when we could have an actual D1 level QB running our offense.

Wilcke did a decent job last season, but he was so young he needed way more time to mature. The rest of what we started the last three seasons were not viable D1 QBs imho. If Wiles or the kid from Houston can take the reins, our offense should be much improved.

(05-10-2023 01:44 PM)bridgeforthduke Wrote:  Coastal: 8 Push
JMU: 8.6 Over
Marshall: 7.3 Under
App State 6.6 Over
Georgia Southern: 5.2 Over
ODU: 3.9 Under
Georgia State: 3.3 Under

Troy: 9 Under
South Alabama: 7.7 Under
Louisiana: 7.7 Over
Southern Miss: 5.2 Under
Texas State 3.7 Over
Ark State 4.1 Under
La Monroe 2.8 Under

You go ahead and bet that under for ULM.

(05-11-2023 07:02 PM)Craftycajun Wrote:  Damn shame how far Cajuns have fallen. Went from " King of the hill" to barely mediocre with one coaching hire.

If the OL can stay healthy we are winning 10 games.

(05-12-2023 04:30 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(05-11-2023 07:02 PM)Craftycajun Wrote:  Damn shame how far Cajuns have fallen. Went from " King of the hill" to barely mediocre with one coaching hire.

If the OL can stay healthy we are winning 10 games.

The most enlightening insight ever posted on any board in the history of all boards.