(03-20-2023 03:59 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I don’t think you’ve come to terms with how screwed the BXII is or college football as it’s existed since the NCAA lost its monopoly on tv rights.

The notion of an M1 is pure copium. There is no consolation prize.

None of these non-P2 schools in any configuration have any leverage over the P2 media partners.

I have literally said multiple times that a P2 pro model is coming to college sports, whether we like it or not. I have also said multiple times that Cincinnati's only hope in remaining relevant in college athletics is an SEC invite which won't come. I have posted predicted 20/24-team P2 configurations for god's sake.

Find a poster that has been more doomsday than me on this board.

Cincy fans overall are probably one of the most in-tune fan bases to conference realignment considering we've already been F'd by the networks and back-stabbed by schools multiple times. We learned our place a long time ago, we also learned not to bite the hand that feeds.

It's fine, I get it, you're just catching up to the pity party but, in true Utah fan fashion, you're trying to pretend you knew all along lol

(03-20-2023 04:07 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 03:35 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  ...
The BigXII is stable because
1) the P2 don’t want any schools

At this time.

Guess what? They also don't want any PAC-10 schools either, at this time.

So, it is time to make the best that we can with what we have.

I am getting tired of the talking point about B12 stability. It tries to convey something that is not reality, and reeks of Pac/anti-B12 propaganda. The truth is that the P2 took what they wanted from the B12, and now will take what they desire from the ACC/Pac. The talking point hides the idea that the other conferences are in for the same fate.

(03-20-2023 06:43 AM)cc22 Wrote:  Marchand is reporting this morning that espn and the Pac are not close to a deal.

https://nypost.com/2023/03/20/why-espn-s...oy-aikman/

Marchand does not have sources to know what the hell is going on. This idiot and others were saying the sky is falling and the Big 12 is dead two years ago.

(03-20-2023 02:19 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 02:10 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 02:01 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 11:10 AM)e-parade Wrote:  So what's the new thing being "reported" here? Is there anything?

CBS isn't in?
The money is less than it would have been prior to the B12 signing a deal?
Pac 12 Network is not a big moneymaker?
Apple and Amazon have exposure risks?
They need to combine services to come in around the same dollar value as the B12 (and therefore it won't be entirely ESPN)?


How is this any worse than what's been reported on lately? I mean it sounds like it's once again just reporting the same stuff...but let me know if there is actually something new here.

The packaging of the podcast was the big reason I posted it. It was good to hear a respected professional's opinions about the future of the industry, and I found it interesting how they talked about that future in relation to these conference media deals.

We talk on this board all the time about where streaming will be in the future, and Ourand has a qualified perspective on it that needs to be shared. The biggest nugget from that was one I didn't post: That if streaming becomes the primary medium, companies will have to find a way to monetize it like cable (that has two different revenue streams- distributors pay and advertisers pay) or the conferences will not get the same level of payouts.

What made it newsworthy is the timing to Canzano's article and the Pac meeting tomorrow. It is newsworthy that nothing has changed too much, and it is good to know where the media companies stand heading into negotiations. Ourand is one of the best sources out there for that.

Also, Ourand's response to to Canzano: When asked questions from Canzano's reports, Ourand gave his perspective:

-Canzano talked about how they would go Apple/Amazon: Ourand said that makes no sense for the Pac. Go with Apple and they will pay for exclusivity or go with ESPN (his preference) for exposure.
-Canzano quoted the "layup" to surpass the B12: It will be hard. The money isn't there.
-Canzano said a deal could be reached Tuesday: We're not close, but a side could always cave and it happen.

This was also a very good interview that people should listen to. Ourand is well spoken, and this is the best I've heard from him on what he thinks about streaming and Pac rights. This is usually strung across hours and hours of podcasts, but here, it is told in less than an hour.

It's a well told comprehensive view that everyone needs to understand as fans of Pac and other conferences, because this is where we are heading with media rights, at least for the near future.

I guess I should have made it more clear: my comment wasn't for you this time, but for the guy who was proclaiming that the news that came out this morning would be disastrous for the PAC (and said there would be more coming today).

You're not claiming this is groundbreaking. That guy is.

True.

Marchand's article was not either. Both him and Ourand have been consistent on their opinions since February.

I think the followup was the ESPN layoffs.

(03-20-2023 04:31 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:43 AM)cc22 Wrote:  Marchand is reporting this morning that espn and the Pac are not close to a deal.

https://nypost.com/2023/03/20/why-espn-s...oy-aikman/

Marchand does not have sources to know what the hell is going on. This idiot and others were saying the sky is falling and the Big 12 is dead two years ago.

Whether or not the Pac gets a great or a bad deal, he most definitely has sources.

(03-20-2023 04:26 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 04:07 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 03:35 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  ...
The BigXII is stable because
1) the P2 don’t want any schools

At this time.

Guess what? They also don't want any PAC-10 schools either, at this time.

So, it is time to make the best that we can with what we have.

I am getting tired of the talking point about B12 stability. It tries to convey something that is not reality, and reeks of Pac/anti-B12 propaganda. The truth is that the P2 took what they wanted from the B12, and now will take what they desire from the ACC/Pac. The talking point hides the idea that the other conferences are in for the same fate.

This is a fact that most people here and elsewhere conveniently ignore, the only question now is who will they take?

(03-20-2023 04:55 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  This is a fact that most people here and elsewhere conveniently ignore, the only question now is who will they take?

I don't know when, but I'll be shocked if Oregon and Washington are not in the B1G by 2034 at the very very latest. I think Stanford will probably be in the B1G too.

IMO, the B1G will either expand this year or right before they sign their next media deal so sometime before 2030. I think they probably expand again around 2034/2036.

(03-20-2023 02:30 PM)b2b Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 10:43 AM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 10:36 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I hope it’s a 100% Apple deal.

Everybody not in the P2 needs to open their eyes and see that FOX/ESPN are just biding their time until they can completely divest themselves of everything outside their P2 properties.

Unless one of the non-P2 can get something going outside the ESPN-FOX umbrella, there’s not going to be any M-tier level college sports. It’s going to be P2 or bust.

If there is a disassociation, it is going to be done en masse as the result of the changing relationship between Universities and their Athletic Departments. For those that want to the follow the "professional model", there is going to be a need for a third conference. The collective power and influence on the non-P2 leagues is too great to ignore without creating immense issues. Having a third "also ran" that isn't really on par, but is treated closer to that status, is going to be the solution to avoiding anti-trust issues.

For those that don't follow that model, you will see more of a divestment from college athletics altogether. I could see a number of schools at all levels deciding that this is the step too far. Whichever schools those may be, you will see a split from those following the professional model.

Hopefully this all shakes out sooner rather than later. Whatever that means for East Carolina, so be it. I'm 100% for a true student athlete model if that's what it comes to. Crazy that has to be said. For those of you who can't resist the EZU jokes you may proceed.

I think that’s the one thing that people don’t appreciate- the model that exists outside the P2 isn’t going to look like P2-lite with big sprawling made-for-tv conferences with no regional or historic basis. Once the P2 takes off with all the money, the value proposition becomes the other aspects like regionalism and historical ties. Which isn’t bad. It’s what people originally liked about CFB.

(03-20-2023 04:16 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 03:59 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I don’t think you’ve come to terms with how screwed the BXII is or college football as it’s existed since the NCAA lost its monopoly on tv rights.

The notion of an M1 is pure copium. There is no consolation prize.

None of these non-P2 schools in any configuration have any leverage over the P2 media partners.

I have literally said multiple times that a P2 pro model is coming to college sports, whether we like it or not. I have also said multiple times that Cincinnati's only hope in remaining relevant in college athletics is an SEC invite which won't come. I have posted predicted 20/24-team P2 configurations for god's sake.

Find a poster that has been more doomsday than me on this board.

Cincy fans overall are probably one of the most in-tune fan bases to conference realignment considering we've already been F'd by the networks and back-stabbed by schools multiple times. We learned our place a long time ago, we also learned not to bite the hand that feeds.

It's fine, I get it, you're just catching up to the pity party but, in true Utah fan fashion, you're trying to pretend you knew all along lol

I’m not doomsday at all. I just don’t see why it’s assumed that in the absence of P2 money or P2 media promotion that a collective of schools will naturally coalesce to form an M1 conference that tries to continue to engage in providing a made-for-tv product that sprawls the entire country and tries to capture markets and chase TV money.

I think it’s much more likely that a lot of schools simply opt out of pursuing the professional model and revert back to something more similar to what existed prior to the influx of media money- namely smaller regional associations that work more based on live attendance than TV revenue.

I don’t expect to go back to the MWC. Maybe the WAC. But more likely the RMAC. Which is fine. It’s still football and like most CFB fans I cheer for the laundry regardless of national relevance.

Also, I’ve been on the B1G or bust wagon since we joined the PAC (with an outside shot at making a PAC-ACC collective work). Never did I think the PAC would wind up being on the inside once the PAC16 fell through.

(03-20-2023 04:31 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:43 AM)cc22 Wrote:  Marchand is reporting this morning that espn and the Pac are not close to a deal.

https://nypost.com/2023/03/20/why-espn-s...oy-aikman/

Marchand does not have sources to know what the hell is going on. This idiot and others were saying the sky is falling and the Big 12 is dead two years ago.

I think you are confusing people. This is not the first time you have said this, and I have looked online through google, twitter and NY Post archives to see if that was true, because I never have heard him say anything like that. Do you have a link that I haven't seen?

He said before contract that B12 would extend contract and get nothing more. He was correct. Before his podcast, most of what he has talked about in the past are deals that have been made.

(03-20-2023 06:19 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 04:31 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:43 AM)cc22 Wrote:  Marchand is reporting this morning that espn and the Pac are not close to a deal.

https://nypost.com/2023/03/20/why-espn-s...oy-aikman/

Marchand does not have sources to know what the hell is going on. This idiot and others were saying the sky is falling and the Big 12 is dead two years ago.

I think you are confusing people. This is not the first time you have said this, and I have looked online through google, twitter and NY Post archives to see if that was true, because I never have heard him say anything like that. Do you have a link that I haven't seen?

He said before contract that B12 would extend contract and get nothing more. He was correct. Before his podcast, most of what he has talked about in the past are deals that have been made.

Marchand knows nothing when talking about the Pac negotiations but I don't notice people questioning what he says about upcoming ESPN layoffs....odd

(03-20-2023 06:22 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:19 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 04:31 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:43 AM)cc22 Wrote:  Marchand is reporting this morning that espn and the Pac are not close to a deal.

https://nypost.com/2023/03/20/why-espn-s...oy-aikman/

Marchand does not have sources to know what the hell is going on. This idiot and others were saying the sky is falling and the Big 12 is dead two years ago.

I think you are confusing people. This is not the first time you have said this, and I have looked online through google, twitter and NY Post archives to see if that was true, because I never have heard him say anything like that. Do you have a link that I haven't seen?

He said before contract that B12 would extend contract and get nothing more. He was correct. Before his podcast, most of what he has talked about in the past are deals that have been made.

Marchand knows nothing when talking about the Pac negotiations but I don't notice people questioning what he says about upcoming ESPN layoffs....odd

Marchand definitely knows the ESPN side of Pac negotiations. He's made a career of reporting on ESPN and has proven himself to be very reliable.

(03-20-2023 06:27 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:22 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:19 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 04:31 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:43 AM)cc22 Wrote:  Marchand is reporting this morning that espn and the Pac are not close to a deal.

https://nypost.com/2023/03/20/why-espn-s...oy-aikman/

Marchand does not have sources to know what the hell is going on. This idiot and others were saying the sky is falling and the Big 12 is dead two years ago.

I think you are confusing people. This is not the first time you have said this, and I have looked online through google, twitter and NY Post archives to see if that was true, because I never have heard him say anything like that. Do you have a link that I haven't seen?

He said before contract that B12 would extend contract and get nothing more. He was correct. Before his podcast, most of what he has talked about in the past are deals that have been made.

Marchand knows nothing when talking about the Pac negotiations but I don't notice people questioning what he says about upcoming ESPN layoffs....odd

Marchand definitely knows the ESPN side of Pac negotiations. He's made a career of reporting on ESPN and has proven himself to be very reliable.

And who knows, he may be ESPN negotiating thru the press, but there's no reason to think he or Ourand are trying to further any narrative for any conference, why would they care?

(03-20-2023 06:34 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:27 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:22 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:19 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 04:31 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Marchand does not have sources to know what the hell is going on. This idiot and others were saying the sky is falling and the Big 12 is dead two years ago.

I think you are confusing people. This is not the first time you have said this, and I have looked online through google, twitter and NY Post archives to see if that was true, because I never have heard him say anything like that. Do you have a link that I haven't seen?

He said before contract that B12 would extend contract and get nothing more. He was correct. Before his podcast, most of what he has talked about in the past are deals that have been made.

Marchand knows nothing when talking about the Pac negotiations but I don't notice people questioning what he says about upcoming ESPN layoffs....odd

Marchand definitely knows the ESPN side of Pac negotiations. He's made a career of reporting on ESPN and has proven himself to be very reliable.

And who knows, he may be ESPN negotiating thru the press, but there's no reason to think he or Ourand are trying to further any narrative for any conference, why would they care?

They have stated numerous times that they do not like to talk about conference media deals but do so because that is what listeners want to hear. To me, that helps to make them more credible.

Not discussed enough: In their business (media sports rights), they have to keep not only media relationships happy, but also conference/sports relationships happy. They are less likely to report false information because it could damage their relationships.

(03-20-2023 07:09 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:34 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:27 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:22 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:19 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  I think you are confusing people. This is not the first time you have said this, and I have looked online through google, twitter and NY Post archives to see if that was true, because I never have heard him say anything like that. Do you have a link that I haven't seen?

He said before contract that B12 would extend contract and get nothing more. He was correct. Before his podcast, most of what he has talked about in the past are deals that have been made.

Marchand knows nothing when talking about the Pac negotiations but I don't notice people questioning what he says about upcoming ESPN layoffs....odd

Marchand definitely knows the ESPN side of Pac negotiations. He's made a career of reporting on ESPN and has proven himself to be very reliable.

And who knows, he may be ESPN negotiating thru the press, but there's no reason to think he or Ourand are trying to further any narrative for any conference, why would they care?

They have stated numerous times that they do not like to talk about conference media deals but do so because that is what listeners want to hear. To me, that helps to make them more credible.

Not discussed enough: In their business (media sports rights), they have to keep not only media relationships happy, but also conference/sports relationships happy. They are less likely to report false information because it could damage their relationships.

When Ourand was on the Wilner/Canzano podcast, I believe he said he actually holds back on a fair amount of stuff and usually has to have stuff at least double sourced before he goes with it.

(03-20-2023 04:55 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 04:26 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 04:07 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 03:35 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  ...
The BigXII is stable because
1) the P2 don’t want any schools

At this time.

Guess what? They also don't want any PAC-10 schools either, at this time.

So, it is time to make the best that we can with what we have.

I am getting tired of the talking point about B12 stability. It tries to convey something that is not reality, and reeks of Pac/anti-B12 propaganda. The truth is that the P2 took what they wanted from the B12, and now will take what they desire from the ACC/Pac. The talking point hides the idea that the other conferences are in for the same fate.

This is a fact that most people here and elsewhere conveniently ignore, the only question now is who will they take?

With all the talk about 20 and 24 team conferences I don't think most people here ignore that.

(03-20-2023 07:21 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 07:09 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 06:34 PM)cc22 Wrote:  Marchand definitely knows the ESPN side of Pac negotiations. He's made a career of reporting on ESPN and has proven himself to be very reliable.

They have stated numerous times that they do not like to talk about conference media deals but do so because that is what listeners want to hear. To me, that helps to make them more credible.

Not discussed enough: In their business (media sports rights), they have to keep not only media relationships happy, but also conference/sports relationships happy. They are less likely to report false information because it could damage their relationships.

When Ourand was on the Wilner/Canzano podcast, I believe he said he actually holds back on a fair amount of stuff and usually has to have stuff at least double sourced before he goes with it.

Sure. Conscientious professional journalists feel that way. They mind responsibilities. A short-term uptick in clicks isn't worth sacrificing credibility and relationships.

What I got from this was money for media rights is becoming scare. I would be very careful celebrating the demise of The PAC.

If money isn’t available for The PAC, what about The Big 12? What’s going to change between now and the end of the Big 12 GOR to make more funds for increased media rights available at ESPN or Fox. The Big 12 had to negotiate a contract with two different media outlets to get the deal they got this time.

The way I see it is The ACC is safe until 2036 with an escalation clause each season until the GOR ends.

If The Big Ten and The SEC negotiate, who knows if there will be money left for The PAC or Big 12 to get an increased or equal contract in 2030.

If the bottom falls out of college football popularity, The ACC may have been smart locking in something long term when the market was on the way up instead of negotiating in 2026 as previously planned when the market looks to be on the downturn. The negotiations at the end of this decade are going to be tough.

I’ve said for a while we’ve seen the peak of the media rights deals. The next contracts will go down for everyone. Unfortunately for The PAC, The Big 12 beat them to the bank and all the money is gone one cycle earlier than expected.

(03-20-2023 07:44 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  What I got from this was money for media rights is becoming scare. I would be very careful celebrating the demise of The PAC.

If money isn’t available for The PAC, what about The Big 12? What’s going to change between now and the end of the Big 12 GOR to make more funds for increased media rights available at ESPN or Fox. The Big 12 had to negotiate a contract with two different media outlets to get the deal they got this time.

The way I see it is The ACC is safe until 2036 with an escalation clause each season until the GOR ends.

If The Big Ten and The SEC negotiate, who knows if there will be money left for The PAC or Big 12 to get an increased or equal contract in 2030.

If the bottom falls out of college football popularity, The ACC may have been smart locking in something long term when the market was on the way up instead of negotiating in 2026 as previously planned. The negotiations at the end of this decade are going to be tough.

I’ve said for a while we’ve seen the peak of the media rights deals. The next contracts will go down for everyone. Unfortunately for The PAC, The Big 12 be them to the bank and all the money is gone one cycle earlier than expected.

B1G did deals with more media companies than B12 did and is a big reason why limited deals remain. B12 doing their deal with both ESPN/Fox helped to maximize their deal the same way (although much, much less) the B1G did.

Plenty will change in the next 5-7 years: The economy should recover from the post-COVID mess we are in right now, which means more money should be available to spend. We will have more clarity on the future with streaming: And I'm guessing we will have better ways to monetize streaming, which means more money. I also think that will be more streamers in the market, which means more competition, and more potential for the money to be spread out among conferences.

I don't know if we will see higher deals made, but I think there will be better competition and more money available than there was this cycle.

(03-20-2023 04:14 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 03:59 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I don’t think you’ve come to terms with how screwed the BXII is or college football as it’s existed since the NCAA lost its monopoly on tv rights.

The notion of an M1 is pure copium. There is no consolation prize.

None of these non-P2 schools in any configuration have any leverage over the P2 media partners.

Lol, you really didn’t see this coming, did you? Your grief is immense

Again, it’s not a good spot to be in compared to most of the P4 plus PAC days, but it’s still far better than 3 rump conferences.

When ACC and PAC liquidation is complete, and the 3rd conference will have only autos outside of P2, plus some base CFP pay. A very cheap “settlement “ to avoid litigation and antitrust. Linear access for next 5 years already locked in. After that, top windows will still go to P2, with 3rd conference getting similar portion to now. There’s a reason why ESPN and Fox decided to go in on a Big 12 together- and didn’t do to the Big 12 what they’re now doing to PAC. They could have done it to both conferences- they didn’t.

Adding the ACC leftovers makes it neatly certain the 3rd conference gets parity to ACC deal through 2036, with both major networks sharing the cost

For most in 3rd conference, there’s not a big impact to football. They have better access to CFP than previous era,, and little change in CFB hierarchy. If they were high value football schools, theyd be in P2

CBB is where the risk is. In basketball: there is no CFP equalizer as nearly every university can already compete. So getting to a critical mass of top CBB is not only a hedge against actual separation of P2, but becoming old Big East in BCS era is important for mitigating hit to CBB

The difference between rump conferences and a 3rd will be whether the departments will have to lay off staff from budgets greatly shrinking vs being able to hold to current level

ESPN & Fox are working on that one, IMO. JRsec has talked about this also.