(03-20-2023 12:15 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 10:36 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I hope it’s a 100% Apple deal.

Everybody not in the P2 needs to open their eyes and see that FOX/ESPN are just biding their time until they can completely divest themselves of everything outside their P2 properties.

Unless one of the non-P2 can get something going outside the ESPN-FOX umbrella, there’s not going to be any M-tier level college sports. It’s going to be P2 or bust.

Just curious, what is ESPN going to show after 10PM EST (7PM PST) on Fridays and Saturdays, tractor pulls and Corn Hole and Celebrity Poker tournaments?

FOX/ESPN still need ND to join a P2 conference before they can close the circle and have a P2-only playoff. Once they can contain all of the playoff revenue to the P2 they can afford the last phase of P2 expansion and fill all their inventory needs.

(03-20-2023 12:52 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 12:15 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 10:36 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I hope it’s a 100% Apple deal.

Everybody not in the P2 needs to open their eyes and see that FOX/ESPN are just biding their time until they can completely divest themselves of everything outside their P2 properties.

Unless one of the non-P2 can get something going outside the ESPN-FOX umbrella, there’s not going to be any M-tier level college sports. It’s going to be P2 or bust.

Just curious, what is ESPN going to show after 10PM EST (7PM PST) on Fridays and Saturdays, tractor pulls and Corn Hole and Celebrity Poker tournaments?

Sportscenter, Boxing, NBA games, what they usually show when football is not on. I'm sure Big Sky teams would love to play in that time slot on ESPN2 on Saturdays

NBA seems like it's on the mark.

(03-20-2023 10:43 AM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 10:36 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I hope it’s a 100% Apple deal.

Everybody not in the P2 needs to open their eyes and see that FOX/ESPN are just biding their time until they can completely divest themselves of everything outside their P2 properties.

Unless one of the non-P2 can get something going outside the ESPN-FOX umbrella, there’s not going to be any M-tier level college sports. It’s going to be P2 or bust.

If there is a disassociation, it is going to be done en masse as the result of the changing relationship between Universities and their Athletic Departments. For those that want to the follow the "professional model", there is going to be a need for a third conference. The collective power and influence on the non-P2 leagues is too great to ignore without creating immense issues. Having a third "also ran" that isn't really on par, but is treated closer to that status, is going to be the solution to avoiding anti-trust issues.

For those that don't follow that model, you will see more of a divestment from college athletics altogether. I could see a number of schools at all levels deciding that this is the step too far. Whichever schools those may be, you will see a split from those following the professional model.

Hopefully this all shakes out sooner rather than later. Whatever that means for East Carolina, so be it. I'm 100% for a true student athlete model if that's what it comes to. Crazy that has to be said. For those of you who can't resist the EZU jokes you may proceed.

(03-20-2023 10:36 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I hope it’s a 100% Apple deal.

Everybody not in the P2 needs to open their eyes and see that FOX/ESPN are just biding their time until they can completely divest themselves of everything outside their P2 properties.

Unless one of the non-P2 can get something going outside the ESPN-FOX umbrella, there’s not going to be any M-tier level college sports. It’s going to be P2 or bust.

This is obvious and has been obvious which confuses me as to why you are so pro-PAC and anti-BIG 12.

The best hope for all current PAC, ACC, and BIG 12 schools is they get an invite to the B1G or SEC...most schools in those conferences won't get an invite, however.

The only logical thing left for those schools to do is consolidate into the best of the rest conference that can be competitive enough in both football and basketball to delay the inevitability of being left behind in the future.

The Pro Model is coming to college athletics one way or another. It's not just the M3 schools that need to be worried either. There are a few current SEC and B1G schools that should also be worried (Purdue, Vandy, Miss St., Northwestern, etc.). If your program isn't drawing sufficient ratings (and eventually subscribers), you're at risk of being left behind as the networks push further consolidation whether we like it or not.

As a Utah fan, you should jump off your delusional high horse and throw that academic BS out the window. You should only be worried about how your program can survive long enough to hopefully get a B1G or SEC invite. Whether you're doing that in the PAC, BIG 12, or ACC, it doesn't matter...you just don't want to end up in a new G5. Look out for yourself, and no one else. That's the only way to survive in this climate.

(03-20-2023 02:27 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 12:15 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 10:36 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I hope it’s a 100% Apple deal.

Everybody not in the P2 needs to open their eyes and see that FOX/ESPN are just biding their time until they can completely divest themselves of everything outside their P2 properties.

Unless one of the non-P2 can get something going outside the ESPN-FOX umbrella, there’s not going to be any M-tier level college sports. It’s going to be P2 or bust.

Just curious, what is ESPN going to show after 10PM EST (7PM PST) on Fridays and Saturdays, tractor pulls and Corn Hole and Celebrity Poker tournaments?

FOX/ESPN still need ND to join a P2 conference before they can close the circle and have a P2-only playoff. Once they can contain all of the playoff revenue to the P2 they can afford the last phase of P2 expansion and fill all their inventory needs.

The only problem with this is that Fox/ESPN have much more deep-pocketed rivals to contend with going forward, ND doesn't want to join a Conference and the P2 doesn't want to have a P2-only playoff. Otherwise, spot-on.

I think Ourand has been the best "canary in a coal mine" reporter when it comes to the PAC. He's neutral, but in the beginning he was positive that the PAC would get a good deal. As the months have gone on he has shifted from that positive view.

(03-20-2023 02:30 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  ...
The best hope for all current PAC, ACC, and BIG 12 schools is they get an invite to the B1G or SEC...most schools in those conferences won't get an invite, however.

The only logical thing left for those schools to do is consolidate into the best of the rest conference that can be competitive enough in both football and basketball to delay the inevitability of being left behind in the future.

P2+1, with the +1 being the nBig XII with Pacific Athletic, Big Central, and Atlantic Coast Divisions. With the new name "the Big XXX."

(03-20-2023 02:30 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 10:36 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I hope it’s a 100% Apple deal.

Everybody not in the P2 needs to open their eyes and see that FOX/ESPN are just biding their time until they can completely divest themselves of everything outside their P2 properties.

Unless one of the non-P2 can get something going outside the ESPN-FOX umbrella, there’s not going to be any M-tier level college sports. It’s going to be P2 or bust.

This is obvious and has been obvious which confuses me as to why you are so pro-PAC and anti-BIG 12.

The best hope for all current PAC, ACC, and BIG 12 schools is they get an invite to the B1G or SEC...most schools in those conferences won't get an invite, however.

The only logical thing left for those schools to do is consolidate into the best of the rest conference that can be competitive enough in both football and basketball to delay the inevitability of being left behind in the future.

The Pro Model is coming to college athletics one way or another. It's not just the M3 schools that need to be worried either. There are a few current SEC and B1G schools that should also be worried (Purdue, Vandy, Miss St., Northwestern, etc.). If your program isn't drawing sufficient ratings (and eventually subscribers), you're at risk of being left behind as the networks push further consolidation whether we like it or not.

As a Utah fan, you should jump off your delusional high horse and throw that academic BS out the window. You should only be worried about how your program can survive long enough to hopefully get a B1G or SEC invite. Whether you're doing that in the PAC, BIG 12, or ACC, it doesn't matter...you just don't want to end up in a new G5. Look out for yourself, and no one else. That's the only way to survive in this climate.

Because the BigXII is like Bruce Willis in the Sixth Sense- dead but doesn’t know it yet. There’s a short-term contract held jointly between FOX and ESPN to fill inventory voids while Fox and ESPN set about the business of breaking up the PAC and ACC and bringing ND fully in board. Once that business is taken care of, FOX and ESPN can then divest themselves of any involvement with non-P2 programming including the BigXII.

Why do BigXII fans see a single contract, one that afforded the broadcasters an early OUT exist, as some sort of long-term commitment from FOX and ESPN to support a “best-of-the-rest”? There is no ownership stake in the BigXII (unlike the ACCN) so ESPN/FOX can walk away from the BigXII whenever it suits them (I.e. when they expand the P2). Nor does the BigXII in this event have any capacity for to self-produce and distribute content (unlike the PACN).

The BigXII is stable because
1) the P2 don’t want any schools
2) the BigXII can be cut loose without any entanglements or threats of exploiting alternate (nonP2) revenue streams.

The only hope the BigXII has is that other networks (not ESPN/FOX) pony up some money for ND and for non-P2 content with the PAC currently being the first to go hard after this revenue stream. If the PAC can’t go to market outside of ESPN/FOX, then the BigXII is equally screwed when its next contract comes up. No bidders equals no leverage.

(03-20-2023 03:32 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 02:30 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  ...
The best hope for all current PAC, ACC, and BIG 12 schools is they get an invite to the B1G or SEC...most schools in those conferences won't get an invite, however.

The only logical thing left for those schools to do is consolidate into the best of the rest conference that can be competitive enough in both football and basketball to delay the inevitability of being left behind in the future.

P2+1, with the +1 being the nBig XII with Pacific Athletic, Big Central, and Atlantic Coast Divisions. With the new name "the Big XXX."

Why do you guys think that anybody is going to pay for the +1? With each P2 expansion the finite number of broadcast windows gets smaller and the incentive to provide any semblance of credibility to non-P2 conferences diminishes as ESPN and FOX put all their eggs in the P2 basket.

If the P2 get ND there will be no M tier or little P. There wont even be a G. Everybody else might as well be FCS because they wont be competing for the same championship as the P2. Once ND is in the P2, the playoff wont need an alternate pathway to the national championship for ND. They can just have the B1G and SEC face off like the NFC and AFC, and nobody will question the legitimacy of that title.

(03-20-2023 03:41 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 03:32 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 02:30 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  ...
The best hope for all current PAC, ACC, and BIG 12 schools is they get an invite to the B1G or SEC...most schools in those conferences won't get an invite, however.

The only logical thing left for those schools to do is consolidate into the best of the rest conference that can be competitive enough in both football and basketball to delay the inevitability of being left behind in the future.

P2+1, with the +1 being the nBig XII with Pacific Athletic, Big Central, and Atlantic Coast Divisions. With the new name "the Big XXX."

Why do you guys think that anybody is going to pay for the +1? With each P2 expansion the finite number of broadcast windows gets smaller and the incentive to provide any semblance of credibility to non-P2 conferences diminishes as ESPN and FOX put all their eggs in the P2 basket.

If the P2 get ND there will be no M tier or little P. There wont even be a G. Everybody else might as well be FCS because they wont be competing for the same championship as the P2. Once ND is in the P2, the playoff wont need an alternate pathway to the national championship for ND. They can just have the B1G and SEC face off like the NFC and AFC, and nobody will question the legitimacy of that title.

Nihilism is a stage of grief.

Once you get over it,you’ll realize there’s a big difference between a single conference of P5 leftovers and 3 rump conferences

It won’t be the generally equitable P5 era, but it is much more survivable than P2 plus M3

(03-20-2023 10:36 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I hope it’s a 100% Apple deal.

Do you have a choice? LOL

If you want the money the Big 12 is making it has to be Apple. The problem is that on Apple you'll be in purgatory, an afterthought. Die hard fans of those P12 schools will find the games. To the casual college football fan in America scrolling between games on any given Saturday, however, you'll pretty much cease to even exist.

(03-20-2023 03:35 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Because the BigXII is like Bruce Willis in the Sixth Sense- dead but doesn’t know it yet. There’s a short-term contract held jointly between FOX and ESPN to fill inventory voids while Fox and ESPN set about the business of breaking up the PAC and ACC and bringing ND fully in board. Once that business is taken care of, FOX and ESPN can then divest themselves of any involvement with non-P2 programming including the BigXII.

Why do BigXII fans see a single contract, one that afforded the broadcasters an early OUT exist, as some sort of long-term commitment from FOX and ESPN to support a “best-of-the-rest”? There is no ownership stake in the BigXII (unlike the ACCN) so ESPN/FOX can walk away from the BigXII whenever it suits them (I.e. when they expand the P2). Nor does the BigXII in this event have any capacity for to self-produce and distribute content (unlike the PACN).

The BigXII is stable because
1) the P2 don’t want any schools
2) the BigXII can be cut loose without any entanglements or threats of exploiting alternate (nonP2) revenue streams.

The only hope the BigXII has is that other networks (not ESPN/FOX) pony up some money for ND and for non-P2 content with the PAC currently being the first to go hard after this revenue stream. If the PAC can’t go to market outside of ESPN/FOX, then the BigXII is equally screwed when its next contract comes up. No bidders equals no leverage.

Yes, the Big 12 is screwed, just like the PAC and ACC. That was the whole point of my post. If you think the PACN and ACCN can save those conferences, I have a bridge to sell you. The PACN probably does more harm than good in the media negotiations and the ACCN isn't some massive revenue generator. The ACCN was put in place to keep ACC schools temporarily happy, similar to how ESPN leveraged the LHN to keep Texas happy in the Big 12 so ESPN could eventually move them to the SEC instead of the B1G. Both offers are fool's gold.

Most Big 12 fans are under no delusions regarding their place in the broader college athletic landscape. The Big 12/Yormark recognized the best path to remain relevant in the short term is to sign an extension with FOX/ESPN before the PAC could. Now the Big 12 is posturing to eventually raid the best of the rest starting with the PAC and ending with the ACC.

The P2 vs P5 battle ended once Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA left...right now the ACC, PAC, and BIG 12 are in a battle to become the M1 as the distant consolation prize.

(03-20-2023 03:50 PM)JohnJohnson Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 10:36 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I hope it’s a 100% Apple deal.

Do you have a choice? LOL

If you want the money the Big 12 is making it has to be Apple. The problem is that on Apple you'll be in purgatory, an afterthought. Die hard fans of those P12 schools will find the games. To the casual college football fan in America scrolling between games on any given Saturday, however, you'll pretty much cease to even exist.

Utah fans seem committed to becoming a G5 school again lol

Watching Utah fans hang their coattails on Stanford and Cal's academics has been wildly entertaining, to say the least. Stanford and Cal do not give any Fs about what happens to fricken Utah.

I don’t think you’ve come to terms with how screwed the BXII is or college football as it’s existed since the NCAA lost its monopoly on tv rights.

The notion of an M1 is pure copium. There is no consolation prize.

None of these non-P2 schools in any configuration have any leverage over the P2 media partners.

(03-20-2023 03:52 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  The P2 vs P5 battle ended once Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA left...right now the ACC, PAC, and BIG 12 are in a battle to become the M1 as the distant consolation prize.

You got the first part right but the second part completely wrong. What financial incentive do the parties with all the leverage have in having a mid tier conference?

The answer is none. Those networks are better off devaluing everything outside the P2 such that nobody can garner more than a commodity level filler price.

(03-20-2023 03:59 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I don’t think you’ve come to terms with how screwed the BXII is or college football as it’s existed since the NCAA lost its monopoly on tv rights.

The notion of an M1 is pure copium. There is no consolation prize.

None of these non-P2 schools in any configuration have any leverage over the P2 media partners.

Some are far more "screwed" than others.

See: 100% streaming on Apple in order to get a payday that makes ends meet.

(03-20-2023 03:35 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 02:30 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 10:36 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I hope it’s a 100% Apple deal.

Everybody not in the P2 needs to open their eyes and see that FOX/ESPN are just biding their time until they can completely divest themselves of everything outside their P2 properties.

Unless one of the non-P2 can get something going outside the ESPN-FOX umbrella, there’s not going to be any M-tier level college sports. It’s going to be P2 or bust.

This is obvious and has been obvious which confuses me as to why you are so pro-PAC and anti-BIG 12.

The best hope for all current PAC, ACC, and BIG 12 schools is they get an invite to the B1G or SEC...most schools in those conferences won't get an invite, however.

The only logical thing left for those schools to do is consolidate into the best of the rest conference that can be competitive enough in both football and basketball to delay the inevitability of being left behind in the future.

The Pro Model is coming to college athletics one way or another. It's not just the M3 schools that need to be worried either. There are a few current SEC and B1G schools that should also be worried (Purdue, Vandy, Miss St., Northwestern, etc.). If your program isn't drawing sufficient ratings (and eventually subscribers), you're at risk of being left behind as the networks push further consolidation whether we like it or not.

As a Utah fan, you should jump off your delusional high horse and throw that academic BS out the window. You should only be worried about how your program can survive long enough to hopefully get a B1G or SEC invite. Whether you're doing that in the PAC, BIG 12, or ACC, it doesn't matter...you just don't want to end up in a new G5. Look out for yourself, and no one else. That's the only way to survive in this climate.

Because the BigXII is like Bruce Willis in the Sixth Sense- dead but doesn’t know it yet. There’s a short-term contract held jointly between FOX and ESPN to fill inventory voids while Fox and ESPN set about the business of breaking up the PAC and ACC and bringing ND fully in board. Once that business is taken care of, FOX and ESPN can then divest themselves of any involvement with non-P2 programming including the BigXII.

Why do BigXII fans see a single contract, one that afforded the broadcasters an early OUT exist, as some sort of long-term commitment from FOX and ESPN to support a “best-of-the-rest”? There is no ownership stake in the BigXII (unlike the ACCN) so ESPN/FOX can walk away from the BigXII whenever it suits them (I.e. when they expand the P2). Nor does the BigXII in this event have any capacity for to self-produce and distribute content (unlike the PACN).

The BigXII is stable because
1) the P2 don’t want any schools
2) the BigXII can be cut loose without any entanglements or threats of exploiting alternate (nonP2) revenue streams.

The only hope the BigXII has is that other networks (not ESPN/FOX) pony up some money for ND and for non-P2 content with the PAC currently being the first to go hard after this revenue stream. If the PAC can’t go to market outside of ESPN/FOX, then the BigXII is equally screwed when its next contract comes up. No bidders equals no leverage.

Some of what you are seeing with the Pac is bad timing. The economy is currently faltering, and media companies are taking a large hit. I believe Ourand: The content demand is there for an M3 right now, even in this extreme scenario we are in, but the money does not match because companies have to turn a profit in a market that is currently limited due to a poor economy. I read it in economical terms: We are coming out of a bubble where conferences are artificially inflated because streaming needed product to prove viability. Wall Street now wants to see profit.

The Pac can survive because the demand for content is still there, but it is more likely that consolidation will happen so the middle tier schools can maximize profit.

A network does not really matter if it does not turn a profit. It is not uncommon for media companies to liquidate networks, and we do not know a true monetary value for conference networks on streaming platforms in the future. It makes sense now, because Apple/Amazon get to prove viability with a smaller cost to produce, but we don't know if that is something they will want to do long term. Add in the RSN bankruptcies... The conference networks were patterned as a newer RSN. It's not that conference network won't succeed: We just need to see how the market and companies adjust to the bankruptcies.

That the B12 doesn't have entanglements might actually allow them more maneuverability in the future, allowing them to split their product up to more companies to sell. It's a different model to the other Power Conferences, and that could be a good thing as well: If I want a conference network, I don't want the ACC/Pac. I want the B1G/SEC. If I want something different: B12 has good brands and good competition.

This all said, I don't think the B12/ACC/Pac fans should feel doomsday about any of this, as long as they make good decisions based on athletics. At least one of those conferences will remain a "power' M-level conference, although I think two will. Most of the universities will be included, and a few might even be added. It just might happen under a different conference name.

(03-20-2023 03:35 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  ...
The BigXII is stable because
1) the P2 don’t want any schools

At this time.

Guess what? They also don't want any PAC-10 schools either, at this time.

So, it is time to make the best that we can with what we have.

(03-20-2023 03:59 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I don’t think you’ve come to terms with how screwed the BXII is or college football as it’s existed since the NCAA lost its monopoly on tv rights.

The notion of an M1 is pure copium. There is no consolation prize.

None of these non-P2 schools in any configuration have any leverage over the P2 media partners.

Lol, you really didn’t see this coming, did you? Your grief is immense

Again, it’s not a good spot to be in compared to most of the P4 plus PAC days, but it’s still far better than 3 rump conferences.

When ACC and PAC liquidation is complete, and the 3rd conference will have only autos outside of P2, plus some base CFP pay. A very cheap “settlement “ to avoid litigation and antitrust. Linear access for next 5 years already locked in. After that, top windows will still go to P2, with 3rd conference getting similar portion to now. There’s a reason why ESPN and Fox decided to go in on a Big 12 together- and didn’t do to the Big 12 what they’re now doing to PAC. They could have done it to both conferences- they didn’t.

Adding the ACC leftovers makes it neatly certain the 3rd conference gets parity to ACC deal through 2036, with both major networks sharing the cost

For most in 3rd conference, there’s not a big impact to football. They have better access to CFP than previous era,, and little change in CFB hierarchy. If they were high value football schools, theyd be in P2

CBB is where the risk is. In basketball: there is no CFP equalizer as nearly every university can already compete. So getting to a critical mass of top CBB is not only a hedge against actual separation of P2, but becoming old Big East in BCS era is important for mitigating hit to CBB

The difference between rump conferences and a 3rd will be whether the departments will have to lay off staff from budgets greatly shrinking vs being able to hold to current level

(03-20-2023 03:41 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 03:32 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 02:30 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  ...
The best hope for all current PAC, ACC, and BIG 12 schools is they get an invite to the B1G or SEC...most schools in those conferences won't get an invite, however.

The only logical thing left for those schools to do is consolidate into the best of the rest conference that can be competitive enough in both football and basketball to delay the inevitability of being left behind in the future.

P2+1, with the +1 being the nBig XII with Pacific Athletic, Big Central, and Atlantic Coast Divisions. With the new name "the Big XXX."

Why do you guys think that anybody is going to pay for the +1? With each P2 expansion the finite number of broadcast windows gets smaller and the incentive to provide any semblance of credibility to non-P2 conferences diminishes as ESPN and FOX put all their eggs in the P2 basket.

If the P2 get ND there will be no M tier or little P. There wont even be a G. Everybody else might as well be FCS because they wont be competing for the same championship as the P2. Once ND is in the P2, the playoff wont need an alternate pathway to the national championship for ND. They can just have the B1G and SEC face off like the NFC and AFC, and nobody will question the legitimacy of that title.

Well they are paying now!

You sure seem to have a fatalistic view of it. There have always been tiers in college sports. Its just that the top group only has 2 conferences now. And its still only financial. If anything, there is 1 conference in the top tier in football.