(02-25-2023 10:46 AM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(02-24-2023 09:07 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  It has nothing to do with who's really the best/popular.

It's a shame we don't have any sort of metric to figure that out. Oh, wait....

A) We really don't. Time slot, network, and promotion are dictated by the contracts (aka, ESPN). It's a self-fulfilling prophecy: The big schools fill the big broadcast time slots "because they get the most viewers" but they get the most viewers because they're in the big broadcast slots.

We actually saw this is true in 2020, when COVID forced ABC to put on teams that usually never sniff ABC. Those games are some of the highest rated games for those conferences of the decade. Just because they were on ABC and not ESPN2 or ESPNU.


B) Even if one ignored the fact that the data is corrupt, there is NOT a linear correlation between the data and the TV contracts.

There isn't an "X viewers = X dollars" formula being applied. IF it was, it would show the Pac-12 in a peer group with Big 12 and ACC.

It would be like: ACC $370, Big 12 $340, Pac-10 $300. But ESPN isn't offering $300m. ESPN is dividing college sports into tiers, and taking 2 of the 3 from each tier; and purposely ignoring/destroying the other one just to consolidate expenses.

(02-25-2023 11:05 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  I think this is correct for the most part. ESPN did the same thing to the Big East once they turned down ESPN's TV deal and went to the open market. The PAC made the cardinal mistake, you don't bite the hand that feeds.The PAC's arrogance made them think they could f*ck with the Mouse, but if I've learned anything in realignment as a Cincinnati fan who has learned the hard way more times than I can count, you don't f*ck with the Mouse.

They didn't though. In what way did the bite ESPN? The only possible way they could is if ESPN specifically asked them to help destroy the Big 12 (by inviting TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Kansas right after the SEC Texas/OU news dropped) and they said no.

I get that it's a business, and this is just how it goes in Darwinian Capitalism. My overall point though is we're sitting here and watching it all happen and saying "Welp, Pac-12 should have played the game of ESPN Conference Destruction better!" like the bettors in Squid Game.

Not like "Hey, maybe we shouldn't be letting ESPN destroy conferences?" If politicians get involved over Taylor Swift tickets, how has no politician rounded up like the 75% of congressmen who don't represent B10/SEC/ACC districts and brought Disney/ESPN up for Anti-Trust/Monopoly hearings?


The real shame of it all is that if NBC, CBS and Fox didn't ignore ESPN creating the Sports Network monopoly they basically have, you COULD have real competition for all the conferences, where conference realignment is STAVED OFF. You could have ESPN giving the Pac-12 more money so they don't lose USC/UCLA to the Big Ten, because the Big Ten is a Fox conference.

(02-24-2023 06:32 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(02-24-2023 06:17 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(02-24-2023 04:35 PM)e-parade Wrote:  Ion (11th) gets better ratings than either TBS (15th) or TNT (13th).

That's because cable subscriptions have plummeted to about 52% of households, while Ion is free and available in 69% of households.

y

ION is also on Directv, Dish and many cable providers. Pretty easy to find.

It’s on YouTube TV as well.

I remember C-USA 2.0 was on ION’s predecessor, PAX-TV for a season or two. CSTV now CBS Sports syndicated some games to PAX-TV. C-USA 2.0 had an odd tv deal at the time with ESPN, CSTV and CBS (conference tournament final). The MWC had a fragmented tv deal as well with CSTV, Versus (which later became the now extinct NBC Sports) and The Mtn which pioneered the concept of a conference network.

Seems the Pac-12 is heading that way.

https://www.deseret.com/2023/2/24/236140...dia-rights

Note that this comes from a Utah paper:

"...His update came after a week of uproarious criticism on the league from all corners of the country on social media.

In quick order, Stewart Mandel, editor-in-chief for college football for The Athletic, who regularly runs interference for the Pac-12, contradicted the claim by McMurphy in a tweet, saying a ION negotiation with the Pac-12 is in fact not going on.
Soap opera.

McMurphy’s tweet was posted at 10:34 a.m.

Mandel’s call-out followed at 11:45 a.m.

McMurphy’s tweet climbed to 2 million views by late afternoon; Mandel’s retort was up to 500k.

To further pile on the debate, Jason Scheer, who covers the University of Arizona for 24/7sports, chimed in, reminding the Twitterverse the last time Mandel contradicted McMurphy was when McMurphy reported the San Francisco Bowl had been canceled. Mandel said it had not, according to his sources. It had.

Scheer kept receipts...."

"...What then transpired is a case of the Pac-12 becoming a victim of social media mockery.

Folks wondered if the History Channel, C-Span or Lifetime would get involved.

Others wondered how the league’s game would be situated on ION alongside reruns of “Chicago PD,” “Chicago Fire,” “Law and Order: SVU,” “Hawaii 5-0,” “Blue Bloods” and the “NCIS” series franchise.

Would Quibi get involved next?

Mandel’s tweet was a use of his sources to try to preempt criticism on what he believed was an untrue negotiation.

It didn’t work. The flood of cheap shots ensued for hours.

Some of the meme work on Twitter was classic...."

If the choices of the Pac-12 are Apple+ or this, I think were I one of the ten, I'd tell GK to go back to Amazon and ESPN and see if their last offers are still good and take them, putting the rest on ESPN+ as the branding for Pac-12 Network, even if that is just $25m per school total. Take a 5 year deal and hope the market conditions are better in 4 1/2 years when you are first in line.

Of course GK can't walk this one back, as he told the Pac-12 that he could claw back close to $40m per school. I very much doubt Apple is willing to throw close to $2B at the Pac-12 for a 5 year deal when ESPN and Amazon combined where only ~$1.2B for the pieces they wanted, and there isn't much market for the rest. So there probably isn't anything north of $1.5B for five years even with Apple+ having everything.

If Amazon Prime has decided they are out, then the Pac-12 is probably doomed before summer.

I'd casually watch PAC games on Ion. I'd never see a minute of them on Apple.

I think the Louisville Ion affiliate actually ran the final season of syndicated WAC football games a decade ago. But then again it could have been the CW or My affiliate.

(02-25-2023 04:14 PM)72Tiger Wrote:  I'd casually watch PAC games on Ion. I'd never see a minute of them on Apple.

This is where I’m at. People are cracking jokes, but I think a deal with Ion is better than Apple TV+.

(02-24-2023 08:05 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(02-24-2023 07:49 PM)AztecNation Wrote:  I'd imagine Ion wouldn't be buying all of the Pac's TV rights. If they were in it was for maybe 100M for tier 1 or maybe even just trying to get tier 3 rights to dip their toes into sports.

The offer could be for all or most rights for zero dollars plus a large share of the ad revenue. 70%? Genius move by ION. It certainly would be a gamble for the PAC, but maybe lucrative.

Might be the only way this works for both sides. But, wow, what a gamble that would be, and school presidents are generally pretty conservative with financial matters. Would almost be like them playing Vegas slots with their athletic programs.

why the hell are you guys believing this obvious troll tweet so much?

(02-25-2023 03:26 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 11:05 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  I think this is correct for the most part. ESPN did the same thing to the Big East once they turned down ESPN's TV deal and went to the open market. The PAC made the cardinal mistake, you don't bite the hand that feeds.The PAC's arrogance made them think they could f*ck with the Mouse, but if I've learned anything in realignment as a Cincinnati fan who has learned the hard way more times than I can count, you don't f*ck with the Mouse.

They didn't though. In what way did the bite ESPN? The only possible way they could is if ESPN specifically asked them to help destroy the Big 12 (by inviting TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Kansas right after the SEC Texas/OU news dropped) and they said no.

I get that it's a business, and this is just how it goes in Darwinian Capitalism. My overall point though is we're sitting here and watching it all happen and saying "Welp, Pac-12 should have played the game of ESPN Conference Destruction better!" like the bettors in Squid Game.

Not like "Hey, maybe we shouldn't be letting ESPN destroy conferences?" If politicians get involved over Taylor Swift tickets, how has no politician rounded up like the 75% of congressmen who don't represent B10/SEC/ACC districts and brought Disney/ESPN up for Anti-Trust/Monopoly hearings?


The real shame of it all is that if NBC, CBS and Fox didn't ignore ESPN creating the Sports Network monopoly they basically have, you COULD have real competition for all the conferences, where conference realignment is STAVED OFF. You could have ESPN giving the Pac-12 more money so they don't lose USC/UCLA to the Big Ten, because the Big Ten is a Fox conference.

I think your observations regarding ESPN are quite brilliant. I agree that it's time for congress to step-in and stop this realignment nonsense that is spurred by network money. This is ruining college sports. All that is happening is not being driven by consumer desire, but rather the darker nature of corporate overreach.

(02-25-2023 04:14 PM)72Tiger Wrote:  I'd casually watch PAC games on Ion. I'd never see a minute of them on Apple.

Same here. I do not plan to be getting AppleTV as I already am subscribed to a ton of Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, HBO Max, Paramount+, Disney+, ESPN+, Discovery+. I get ION currently through YouTubeTV and I believe someone here said ION reaches over 100 million homes. That's better than ESPN's reach. Outside the box thinking for the PAC, but given their options at this point they need to piece together the most money and exposure they can. ION would bring the exposure (not sure what kind of money) and Amazon/Apple I guess would bring decent money. PAC-12 network is still in play for their Tier-3 rights I presume? I haven't heard them mentioned much at all really during these discussions.

Sent from my LM-G820 using CSNbbs mobile app

(02-26-2023 02:08 AM)IM Snug Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 03:26 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 11:05 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  I think this is correct for the most part. ESPN did the same thing to the Big East once they turned down ESPN's TV deal and went to the open market. The PAC made the cardinal mistake, you don't bite the hand that feeds.The PAC's arrogance made them think they could f*ck with the Mouse, but if I've learned anything in realignment as a Cincinnati fan who has learned the hard way more times than I can count, you don't f*ck with the Mouse.

They didn't though. In what way did the bite ESPN? The only possible way they could is if ESPN specifically asked them to help destroy the Big 12 (by inviting TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Kansas right after the SEC Texas/OU news dropped) and they said no.

I get that it's a business, and this is just how it goes in Darwinian Capitalism. My overall point though is we're sitting here and watching it all happen and saying "Welp, Pac-12 should have played the game of ESPN Conference Destruction better!" like the bettors in Squid Game.

Not like "Hey, maybe we shouldn't be letting ESPN destroy conferences?" If politicians get involved over Taylor Swift tickets, how has no politician rounded up like the 75% of congressmen who don't represent B10/SEC/ACC districts and brought Disney/ESPN up for Anti-Trust/Monopoly hearings?


The real shame of it all is that if NBC, CBS and Fox didn't ignore ESPN creating the Sports Network monopoly they basically have, you COULD have real competition for all the conferences, where conference realignment is STAVED OFF. You could have ESPN giving the Pac-12 more money so they don't lose USC/UCLA to the Big Ten, because the Big Ten is a Fox conference.

I think your observations regarding ESPN are quite brilliant. I agree that it's time for congress to step-in and stop this realignment nonsense that is spurred by network money. This is ruining college sports. All that is happening is not being driven by consumer desire, but rather the darker nature of corporate overreach.

What did your conference do when the Big East was killed? What did your conference do when the Big 12 was on life support? Pac did nothing for the Big East and harmed the Big 12 twice - so now there is no one to save the Pac when they are attacked.

(02-26-2023 02:08 AM)IM Snug Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 03:26 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 11:05 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  I think this is correct for the most part. ESPN did the same thing to the Big East once they turned down ESPN's TV deal and went to the open market. The PAC made the cardinal mistake, you don't bite the hand that feeds.The PAC's arrogance made them think they could f*ck with the Mouse, but if I've learned anything in realignment as a Cincinnati fan who has learned the hard way more times than I can count, you don't f*ck with the Mouse.

They didn't though. In what way did the bite ESPN? The only possible way they could is if ESPN specifically asked them to help destroy the Big 12 (by inviting TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Kansas right after the SEC Texas/OU news dropped) and they said no.

I get that it's a business, and this is just how it goes in Darwinian Capitalism. My overall point though is we're sitting here and watching it all happen and saying "Welp, Pac-12 should have played the game of ESPN Conference Destruction better!" like the bettors in Squid Game.

Not like "Hey, maybe we shouldn't be letting ESPN destroy conferences?" If politicians get involved over Taylor Swift tickets, how has no politician rounded up like the 75% of congressmen who don't represent B10/SEC/ACC districts and brought Disney/ESPN up for Anti-Trust/Monopoly hearings?


The real shame of it all is that if NBC, CBS and Fox didn't ignore ESPN creating the Sports Network monopoly they basically have, you COULD have real competition for all the conferences, where conference realignment is STAVED OFF. You could have ESPN giving the Pac-12 more money so they don't lose USC/UCLA to the Big Ten, because the Big Ten is a Fox conference.

I think your observations regarding ESPN are quite brilliant. I agree that it's time for congress to step-in and stop this realignment nonsense that is spurred by network money. This is ruining college sports. All that is happening is not being driven by consumer desire, but rather the darker nature of corporate overreach.

The reality is, the non-P5 schools are powerless to stop it and it also serves most their interests. Schools in conferences 7-12 know they're stuck behind the P5/BE... but if there's some radical change for more conference equity, the P5 is still going to be richer, and the gap between 7-12 and 13-32 will shrink dramatically.

But the fallout of something like "Congress forces an ABC/ESPN Split" where Disney divides up it's sports properties, ESPN buys a broadcast network (maybe Ion) and then you have five broadcast networks with cable partners competing for content....

Like...
Ion/ESPN (ACC, Pac-12)
ABC/new cable channel (SEC, American, SBC)
NBC/USA (ND, Big Ten/A-10)
Fox/FS1 (Big Ten/Big 12/Big East)
CBS/CBSSN (B10/MWC/MVC)

And you get actual competition for contracts. There'd still be realignment and conferences competing for the biggest contract; but no cable company can decide who's worthless.

(02-25-2023 01:50 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 01:46 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 01:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I found DavidSt's twitter account a few years ago. I followed for awhile, but them stopped -- he doesn't talk much at all about realignment on it. I will just say he is none of the people you think he is, and he has interests outside of realignment. His circle of friends are different, and I do not mean that to imply anything, just that it likely is not who you'd expect.

DavidSt’s circle of people are in the paranormal community. He is a big figure with the ghost hunter folks. DavidSt has his own YT channel that’s predominantly paranormal-related.

I sometimes wonder if our DavidSt is one person, or multiple people posting from the same IP address. Some of his posts are wacky (to put it charitably) and often off topic and use questionable grammar. But occasionally, they are lucid and articulate and make me think they have a different author. He certainly is a man of mystery.

Like I’ve said, there are numerous people on Twitter (and probably YouTube as well) who go under the name DavidSt. You can’t say with certainty that any of them are the same person as the CSNBBS poster.

(02-26-2023 12:10 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  But the fallout of something like "Congress forces an ABC/ESPN Split" where Disney divides up it's sports properties, ESPN buys a broadcast network (maybe Ion) and then you have five broadcast networks with cable partners competing for content....

Like...
Ion/ESPN (ACC, Pac-12)
ABC/new cable channel (SEC, American, SBC)
NBC/USA (ND, Big Ten/A-10)
Fox/FS1 (Big Ten/Big 12/Big East)
CBS/CBSSN (B10/MWC/MVC)

And you get actual competition for contracts. There'd still be realignment and conferences competing for the biggest contract; but no cable company can decide who's worthless.

This is all driven by a ridiculously college sports- centered view of the world.
You do know that PAramount and WBD just sold the CW Network to Nexstar, local television chain, for zero dollars, just an agreement to fund CW's losses?

You do know that, if you separate out Fox News, the entire Fox Corporation is a break-even business, right?

Quote:All that is happening is not being driven by consumer desire, but rather the darker nature of corporate overreach.

Actually, it IS being driven by consumer desire. The desire of most consumers to pay less for televised entertainment, at the cost of having less sports programming.

In the old model, sports programming is massively subsdized by the audience of people watching everything else on cable TV.

Don't think of it as ESPN deciding that the PAC is worthless. Think of it as ESPN no longer artificially inflating the value of sports rights, powered by their economic rents from the cable bundle.s

I'm of the opinion Ion and Apple are going to go hand in hand if the PAC goes that route.

Look at Apple and MLS. Apple has everything but simulcast exist on Fox/FS1 to help increase exposure

It would make sense for PAC to be the same. But Fox doesn't want to do an simulcast for the PAC as they just arent interested in the PAC and ESPN isn't interested in the whole simulcast thing. MLS tried and struck out

That leaves an OTA network like ION as an option