Still waiting, nole.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-961579-post-18...id18665937

This poll is kinda silly..

Trump has announced officially..

Biden says he's running while everyone else around him minus Jill says he shouldn't...

DeSantis hasn't said one way or another.

(12-15-2022 09:09 AM)b2b Wrote:  Still waiting, nole.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-961579-post-18...id18665937

I see MAGA as much more populist than the establishment of either the GOP or the Democratic party. That gives them some overlap with the far left, although the solutions put forward by Donald Trump and Bernie Sander are usually very different. I agree with Claw that trade and immigration are probably the core MAGA issues, most clearly expressed in policy with tariffs and "building the wall". I also see MAGA as pushing a swaggering and semi-isolationist foreign policy that weakens our alliances and rattles our allies, both of which make our enemies stronger. MAGA also appears fixated on domestic energy production, and sells false hope of a bright future for the fossil fuel industry. Trump certainly didn't create these issues, he just read the room and saw there was a base there waiting for its champion to claim it. Aside from coining the new slogan of "build the wall" he basically just started spouting right-wing populist ideas that the establishment GOP gave some lip service too but rarely tried to enact into policy. It's not a movement based on traditional conservative principles at all, more a fear-based opposition to demographic change and the loss of a white Christian majority population that seeks to turn back the clock several decades to a time MAGAts might call "the good old days".

(12-14-2022 12:13 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(12-14-2022 11:01 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(12-14-2022 10:53 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(12-14-2022 10:45 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(12-14-2022 10:04 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  Vanderbilt University has a new poll out -

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2022/12/14/v...tennessee/

Some interesting findings from the poll:

DeSantis leads Trump 54% to 41% among the registered Republicans surveyed
(60% of MAGA Republicans back Trump, while 66% of non-MAGA Republicans choose DeSantis)
34% of Republicans say they are more a supporter of MAGA than the Republican party

This isn't good for Trump in one of his ten best states from 2020, but the poll only presents a binary choice between Trump & DeSantis and the actual GOP primary field may be more crowded. As in 2016, a fragmented field would likely benefit Trump with his die-hard base. The GOP's fondness for winner-take-all primaries could allow him to win the nomination without ever getting a majority of the vote if multiple candidates stay in the race all the way to the end.

wtf is a "MAGA Republican"?

I can think of several other definitions, but I presume for purposes of this poll they are the 34% of registered Republican respondents who stated that they are more supporters of MAGA movement than of the Republican party.

Still waiting on an actual definition from you. "Supporters of MAGA movement" doesn't mean anything to anybody other than to leftists trying to label common sense as boogeyman. What's wrong with wanting to bring jobs back to the US and looking after our interests before other nations'?

The most significant difference between a MAGA Republican and the NEOCON establishment is trade. NEOCON's are free traders. MAGA's are fair traders. That is a big difference.

The secondary issue is immigration. NEOCON's may pretend they want to stop illegal immigration, but MAGA's will actually do something.

Abortion might be the third rail there, but it's not as clear-cut Amercia First.

Abortion has been settled. Just as the “Jim Crowe on steroids” has been shown to anyone paying attention to be complete bullchit, this too will be shown to be bullchit. That doesn’t mean idiots on the left won’t eat that bullchit up like chocolate.

The difference is clear.

MAGA, traditionally known as realism (see Mearshimer), believes America is unitary and rational and should act on its best interest in a given situation.

Neocons believe in use of military for controlling other nations and the world power paradigm by overthrowing unfriendly regimes and installing friendly regimes.

Progressives believe that America is not unitary and rational, but sees America as a component among various entangled alliances or treaties of militaries, central banks, trade, or other special interests and our best course of action is to sacrifice what may be America's best interest in a given situation in the name of international cooperation.

Neocons and progressives are both traditionally known as liberal insofar as international politics. In other words, they both are driven by underlying theories like Democratic Peace Theory and free trade. So really they agree on problems, though might disagree on the course of action. This is why MAGA is so disruptive to the establishment.

Socialists really don't have a coherent principled international worldview. It is strictly domestic. They have their far left social goals and believe the ends justify the means... they'll support those ends via national level action, international treaties or alliances, or military action as long as it advances their goals.

(12-15-2022 10:24 AM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(12-14-2022 12:13 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(12-14-2022 11:01 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(12-14-2022 10:53 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(12-14-2022 10:45 AM)b2b Wrote:  wtf is a "MAGA Republican"?

I can think of several other definitions, but I presume for purposes of this poll they are the 34% of registered Republican respondents who stated that they are more supporters of MAGA movement than of the Republican party.

Still waiting on an actual definition from you. "Supporters of MAGA movement" doesn't mean anything to anybody other than to leftists trying to label common sense as boogeyman. What's wrong with wanting to bring jobs back to the US and looking after our interests before other nations'?

The most significant difference between a MAGA Republican and the NEOCON establishment is trade. NEOCON's are free traders. MAGA's are fair traders. That is a big difference.

The secondary issue is immigration. NEOCON's may pretend they want to stop illegal immigration, but MAGA's will actually do something.

Abortion might be the third rail there, but it's not as clear-cut Amercia First.

Abortion has been settled. Just as the “Jim Crowe on steroids” has been shown to anyone paying attention to be complete bullchit, this too will be shown to be bullchit. That doesn’t mean idiots on the left won’t eat that bullchit up like chocolate.

No it hasn’t. It is one one the reasons the red wave did not happen.

(12-14-2022 10:04 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  Vanderbilt University has a new poll out -

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2022/12/14/v...tennessee/

Some interesting findings from the poll:

DeSantis leads Trump 54% to 41% among the registered Republicans surveyed
(60% of MAGA Republicans back Trump, while 66% of non-MAGA Republicans choose DeSantis)
34% of Republicans say they are more a supporter of MAGA than the Republican party

This isn't good for Trump in one of his ten best states from 2020, but the poll only presents a binary choice between Trump & DeSantis and the actual GOP primary field may be more crowded. As in 2016, a fragmented field would likely benefit Trump with his die-hard base. The GOP's fondness for winner-take-all primaries could allow him to win the nomination without ever getting a majority of the vote if multiple candidates stay in the race all the way to the end.

If that clown from Ohio, Kasich, had dropped out when he should have or never run, I think Jeb or Rubio would have won the nomination and probably the presidency.

(12-15-2022 10:21 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(12-15-2022 09:09 AM)b2b Wrote:  Still waiting, nole.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-961579-post-18...id18665937

I see MAGA as much more populist than the establishment of either the GOP or the Democratic party. That gives them some overlap with the far left, although the solutions put forward by Donald Trump and Bernie Sander are usually very different. I agree with Claw that trade and immigration are probably the core MAGA issues, most clearly expressed in policy with tariffs and "building the wall". I also see MAGA as pushing a swaggering and semi-isolationist foreign policy that weakens our alliances and rattles our allies, both of which make our enemies stronger. MAGA also appears fixated on domestic energy production, and sells false hope of a bright future for the fossil fuel industry. Trump certainly didn't create these issues, he just read the room and saw there was a base there waiting for its champion to claim it. Aside from coining the new slogan of "build the wall" he basically just started spouting right-wing populist ideas that the establishment GOP gave some lip service too but rarely tried to enact into policy. It's not a movement based on traditional conservative principles at all, more a fear-based opposition to demographic change and the loss of a white Christian majority population that seeks to turn back the clock several decades to a time MAGAts might call "the good old days".

Actually Trump forced NATO to pay more of its way, so it made our alliance stronger. Without Trump, they might not have had enough weapons to help Ukraine. They didn't like Trump, but that's irrelevant. Its actions that count. If they had listened to Trump, they would have been less dependent on Russian energy and not in such a fix now.

There's no "false hope." We were energy independent for the first time in decades. That helped our economy in so many ways. Dems deliberately try hard to create unemployment, inflation and deficits through their energy policy. Don't try to deny it. Its part of the Green Raw Deal. Whatever the motives behind it, unemployment, inflation and deficits are deliberately created by the policy.

And while I'm sure you believe the part about fear, that's just typical arrogant bs from the left who have no clue about real life in the country.

(12-15-2022 10:21 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(12-15-2022 09:09 AM)b2b Wrote:  Still waiting, nole.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-961579-post-18...id18665937

I see MAGA as much more populist than the establishment of either the GOP or the Democratic party. That gives them some overlap with the far left, although the solutions put forward by Donald Trump and Bernie Sander are usually very different. I agree with Claw that trade and immigration are probably the core MAGA issues, most clearly expressed in policy with tariffs and "building the wall". I also see MAGA as pushing a swaggering and semi-isolationist foreign policy that weakens our alliances and rattles our allies, both of which make our enemies stronger. MAGA also appears fixated on domestic energy production, and sells false hope of a bright future for the fossil fuel industry. Trump certainly didn't create these issues, he just read the room and saw there was a base there waiting for its champion to claim it. Aside from coining the new slogan of "build the wall" he basically just started spouting right-wing populist ideas that the establishment GOP gave some lip service too but rarely tried to enact into policy. It's not a movement based on traditional conservative principles at all, more a fear-based opposition to demographic change and the loss of a white Christian majority population that seeks to turn back the clock several decades to a time MAGAts might call "the good old days".

This is pretty well thought out post and you deserve credit for trying to understand the psyche of what the base is (most liberals just assume they're all old racist white guys). The coalition is more diverse than you think.

2024 will be more about culture wars than those 2016 issues like trade and immigration. It'll still be there, but it won't be about NAFTA and the wall. DeSantis is ahead in polling because he's using Florida as a way to address these cultural issues and has been effective. Trump really hasn't been at the forefront and is letting DeSantis take that lead.

Winning issues for MAGA: lower energy prices, less regulations (more jobs), domestic supply chain (trade), parental rights in schools,.

While I enjoy reading some of the deep dives into why people like/voted for Trump, I think the answer is much simpler.

The Orange dude was/is a political outsider and didn't speak like a normal (slimey) politician. Most average Americans just liked his straight-forward persona. Speaking for myself and others I know, we don't really care for some of the petty stuff, but were willing to overlook that in exchange for someone who said exactly what was on his mind, as opposed to pretty much every other politician on both sides of the aisle, that obviously just say what they think people want to hear.

(12-15-2022 12:31 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  While I enjoy reading some of the deep dives into why people like/voted for Trump, I think the answer is much simpler.

The Orange dude was/is a political outsider and didn't speak like a normal (slimey) politician. Most average Americans just liked his straight-forward persona. Speaking for myself and others I know, we don't really care for some of the petty stuff, but were willing to overlook that in exchange for someone who said exactly what was on his mind, as opposed to pretty much every other politician on both sides of the aisle, that obviously just say what they think people want to hear.

I think you have a great point there, populism inherently distrusts the elites and that certainly includes their typical speech patterns.

(12-15-2022 01:08 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(12-15-2022 12:31 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  While I enjoy reading some of the deep dives into why people like/voted for Trump, I think the answer is much simpler.

The Orange dude was/is a political outsider and didn't speak like a normal (slimey) politician. Most average Americans just liked his straight-forward persona. Speaking for myself and others I know, we don't really care for some of the petty stuff, but were willing to overlook that in exchange for someone who said exactly what was on his mind, as opposed to pretty much every other politician on both sides of the aisle, that obviously just say what they think people want to hear.

I think you have a great point there, populism inherently distrusts the elites and that certainly includes their typical speech patterns.

Politicians speak to their "perceived" audience. There have been studies showing that Democratic politicians dumb down their speech to Black crowds. Dem politicians clearly think Blacks are dumb.

(12-15-2022 03:49 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-15-2022 01:08 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(12-15-2022 12:31 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  While I enjoy reading some of the deep dives into why people like/voted for Trump, I think the answer is much simpler.

The Orange dude was/is a political outsider and didn't speak like a normal (slimey) politician. Most average Americans just liked his straight-forward persona. Speaking for myself and others I know, we don't really care for some of the petty stuff, but were willing to overlook that in exchange for someone who said exactly what was on his mind, as opposed to pretty much every other politician on both sides of the aisle, that obviously just say what they think people want to hear.

I think you have a great point there, populism inherently distrusts the elites and that certainly includes their typical speech patterns.

Politicians speak to their "perceived" audience. There have been studies showing that Democratic politicians dumb down their speech to Black crowds. Dem politicians clearly think Blacks are dumb.

Both sides do it. Analysis shows that candidates that use simpler language perform better

(12-15-2022 12:31 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  While I enjoy reading some of the deep dives into why people like/voted for Trump, I think the answer is much simpler.

The Orange dude was/is a political outsider and didn't speak like a normal (slimey) politician. Most average Americans just liked his straight-forward persona. Speaking for myself and others I know, we don't really care for some of the petty stuff, but were willing to overlook that in exchange for someone who said exactly what was on his mind, as opposed to pretty much every other politician on both sides of the aisle, that obviously just say what they think people want to hear.

Its really not that hard. I didn't get why anyone would support him at first, but then when he kept getting votes and they talked about who voted for him it was obvious.

The last year of Obama's presidency, life expectancy declined in the US for the first time in the history of our country except for war and pandemic. The decline was worst among high school and less educated people, particularly in the 45-54 age group. And a big contributor was deaths of despair, drugs, alcohol and suicide. There is no bigger indictment of policy than people dying younger.

Politicians and companies have been outsourcing blue collar jobs for decades. The top 25% kept getting wealthier, but the middle 50% were falling behind. Anyone who ever lived in a blue collar area should have been able to understand it. Policies have been written by the elite, for the elite and these other people have been ignored by both parties for decades and made fun of by mainstream media. After the recession, the better off had recovered completely while the middle was still trying to catch up as we had one of the worst and slowest recoveries ever.

Illegal immigration means cheap nannies, lawn service and janitorial service. It drives down wages for lower skilled Americans. Outsourcing manufacturing means more profits for companies and upper class investors. It means unemployment and downward pressure on wages for blue collar workers. Free trade means other countries put up trade barriers and we suffer. Free trade really doesn't exist outside the US. Fair trade is much better for US workers.

Looks like DeSantis needs to come out with a NFT now.

(12-15-2022 10:21 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(12-15-2022 09:09 AM)b2b Wrote:  Still waiting, nole.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-961579-post-18...id18665937

I see MAGA as much more populist than the establishment of either the GOP or the Democratic party. That gives them some overlap with the far left, although the solutions put forward by Donald Trump and Bernie Sander are usually very different. I agree with Claw that trade and immigration are probably the core MAGA issues, most clearly expressed in policy with tariffs and "building the wall". I also see MAGA as pushing a swaggering and semi-isolationist foreign policy that weakens our alliances and rattles our allies, both of which make our enemies stronger. MAGA also appears fixated on domestic energy production, and sells false hope of a bright future for the fossil fuel industry. Trump certainly didn't create these issues, he just read the room and saw there was a base there waiting for its champion to claim it. Aside from coining the new slogan of "build the wall" he basically just started spouting right-wing populist ideas that the establishment GOP gave some lip service too but rarely tried to enact into policy. It's not a movement based on traditional conservative principles at all, more a fear-based opposition to demographic change and the loss of a white Christian majority population that seeks to turn back the clock several decades to a time MAGAts might call "the good old days".

Actually----its pretty basically just "America First". Its the very basic and quaint idea that your elected representatives should represent the electorate. Its the expectation that our politicians should decide issues based on how they affect real world American citizens FIRST and less on how they affect other nations or interest groups outside our borders. Its the expectation that the politicians act with a fiduciary responsibility-----not be just a conduit that channels public funds to the interest group or nation of the politicians choice (assuming the campaign contribution or contract to Uncle Fester is adequate compensation). Applying that America First fiduciary philosophy to trade, the border, international defense entanglements, and the overall business environment is just the most visible aspect of that basic premise.

(12-15-2022 04:26 PM)fsquid Wrote:  Looks like DeSantis needs to come out with a NFT now.

That's funny (in the hah hah sense) because it is absurd. There are lots of Trump wannabes out there, but Ron DeSantis clearly is NOT one of them. And I doubt anyone who is paying attention expects Ron DeSantis to do anything so cringingly out of touch.

Yet, if the situation were reversed, and Ron DeSantis came out with something that got headlines (even if for a totally stupid reason), you know for a near certainty that Donald Trump would not be able to contain himself before coming out with something even more stupid - - just so as to get the spotlight back on himself.

(12-15-2022 01:08 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(12-15-2022 12:31 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  While I enjoy reading some of the deep dives into why people like/voted for Trump, I think the answer is much simpler.

The Orange dude was/is a political outsider and didn't speak like a normal (slimey) politician. Most average Americans just liked his straight-forward persona. Speaking for myself and others I know, we don't really care for some of the petty stuff, but were willing to overlook that in exchange for someone who said exactly what was on his mind, as opposed to pretty much every other politician on both sides of the aisle, that obviously just say what they think people want to hear.

I think you have a great point there, populism inherently distrusts the elites and that certainly includes their typical speech patterns.

The elites gave the normies many reasons to distrust them. They would "fight" the left by running on repealing liberal policies, but when the time came to repeal they folded. Then there's the perceived vanilla/nice guy persona that loses elections. People get tired of losing and then being lied to. So they rolled the dice with Trump to throw off these country club Republicans and call their bluff.