What I'm thinking is ... let's say that Stanford, Oregon, Cal and UW do leave for the B1G.

Now, the PAC is dead. So what next?

Sure, the nB12 could extend an invite to the four corners, who then join.

But what if the four corners say to themselves "we're more valuable than any four nB12 schools, so rather than us coming to them, they come to us, and we don't need all of them"?

Maybe a conference that looks like this ...

Arizona State
Arizona
Colorado
Utah
Kansas
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Oklahoma State
TCU
BYU
Iowa State


IMO, this conference, call it what you want - could have more media value than a 16-team nB12. And if so, I don't think nB12 exit fees are a significant barrier to entry. You don't let $80m stand in the way of a more-profitable conference.

No?

NO!!! There is no legal mechanism to push out the nBig 12. It's a gargantuan lawsuit that has no chance of losing.

(09-01-2022 07:58 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  NO!!! There is no legal mechanism to push out the nBig 12. It's a gargantuan lawsuit that has no chance of losing.

Push out the nB12 in what sense? In my scenario, nB12 schools would leave the nB12 to join a conference formed by the four corners.

If the idea is that the 4 corner schools would elect to poach the best of the rest of the B12, then Oregon State and Washington State would be a part of it as well. No one is forming a brand new conference from whole clothe.

Why would the Big 12 members start negotiations for extended/new tv deal using their Texas and OU Early Exit bargaining chip simply to dissolve the conference and reap no benefits from holding Texas and OU hostage?

The remaining Pac schools (the 4C and WSU and OSU) could attempt taking B12 schools. But I simply don't see that as practical.

You would have to dissolve the B12 or vote to remove the exit fees. It would take some incentive that I don't see anywhere.

(09-01-2022 08:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-01-2022 07:58 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  NO!!! There is no legal mechanism to push out the nBig 12. It's a gargantuan lawsuit that has no chance of losing.

Push out the nB12 in what sense? In my scenario, nB12 schools would leave the nB12 to join a conference formed by the four corners.

The east coast schools are not going to be left homeless like USF. That's a slam dunk lawsuit. They've punched their tickets and are in, period. It's either one conference poaching, or the other, as the Rutgers fan just mentioned regarding OSU/WSU conveniently being left out of your setup. I don't know why we have to draw up these implausible scenarios when there are real updates almost every day and the season is about to kickstart.

There is a scenario where the east coast schools are offered safe passage into the ACC. Then, we'd see an ACC 17 or 18 and a Big 16 (remaining PAC6 + 9, with SDSU). But this requires multiple media partners and presidents aligning all at once.

As of now, I don't think the Big 12 has any interest losing UCF and UC, unless its for the right price. They will need something BIG in return, or the corner 4 will have to give them some ultimatum such as, "our student athletes cannot be burdened by excessive travel demands.... yada yada" which also makes no sense because Orlando is readily accessible. WVU is more problematic in terms of travel to and from MTZ schools, but they have been a decade long member and can't just be kicked out without massive, massive compensation.

Ideally, ESPN can leverage the ACC network and streaming platforms, find exclusive tier 1 slots for Clemson/FSU games, and move east coast Big 12 schools over to the ACC, but frankly, they are already saturated with ACC/SEC games. They don't even need the midwest Big 12 teams so long as they secure rights to mountain and pacific schools in the potential Big 16/B1G 20.

(09-01-2022 07:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  What I'm thinking is ... let's say that Stanford, Oregon, Cal and UW do leave for the B1G.

Now, the PAC is dead. So what next?

Sure, the nB12 could extend an invite to the four corners, who then join.

But what if the four corners say to themselves "we're more valuable than any four nB12 schools, so rather than us coming to them, they come to us, and we don't need all of them"?

Maybe a conference that looks like this ...

Arizona State
Arizona
Colorado
Utah
Kansas
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Oklahoma State
TCU
BYU
Iowa State


IMO, this conference, call it what you want - could have more media value than a 16-team nB12. And if so, I don't think nB12 exit fees are a significant barrier to entry. You don't let $80m stand in the way of a more-profitable conference.

No?

No. You don't get to wave a wand on the exit fee issue and declare it not a problem. Profitability remains an issue when you have take on an $80M debt per team just to make move that the four corner schools can make for free.

I don't support dropping any school in the Big 12 because those are the conference mates that made the Big 12 stable enough to make this kind of move.

There is no sense in dropping the eastern components. The Big 12 isn't a western conference. It is a central conference with eastern (and now western components). Houston has a long history with the SWC teams and adds primary market access in Houston. For better or for worse, the Big 12 needs direct access to that territory following UT and A&M's departure. Houston may not put butts in seats, but they do have decent broadcast audience. Houston stays.

West Virginia and Cincy are every bit as historic programs and brands as ASU and Arizona are. West Virginia in particular can be found amongst the most valuable brands in college football. They have a small state, but their fan base diaspora is much larger and even regionally they pull strongly from Pittsburgh to Washington D.C. Cincy is the second team in the state of Ohio. Ohio State may dominate that state, but if Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Iowa, and really many other states can field two P5 level programs then Ohio certainly can. They stay.

UCF is the only addition I'm not wild about, but it isn't because their program lacks potential. Primary market access in Orlando, adding Florida to the footprint, this is valuable. Being the largest school in FBS is valuable. They've found success at every level, if they continue to find it in the Big 12 then they could be the next FSU type program. With increasing populations, there are going to be new and up and coming type schools that become your future bluebloods or new bloods. That very well could be UCF. If the Big 12 is going to have an eastern presence, then Florida recruiting will be key. They stay.

(09-01-2022 08:15 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(09-01-2022 08:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-01-2022 07:58 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  NO!!! There is no legal mechanism to push out the nBig 12. It's a gargantuan lawsuit that has no chance of losing.

Push out the nB12 in what sense? In my scenario, nB12 schools would leave the nB12 to join a conference formed by the four corners.

The east coast schools are not going to be left homeless like USF. That's a slam dunk lawsuit. They've punched their tickets and are in, period. It's either one conference poaching, or the other, as the Rutgers fan just mentioned regarding OSU/WSU conveniently being left out of your setup. I don't know why we have to draw up these implausible scenarios when there are real updates almost every day and the season is about to kickstart.

There is a scenario where the east coast schools are offered safe passage into the ACC. Then, we'd see an ACC 17 or 18 and a Big 16 (remaining PAC6 + 9, with SDSU). But this requires multiple media partners and presidents aligning all at once.

As of now, I don't think the Big 12 has any interest losing UCF and UC, unless its for the right price. They will need something BIG in return, or the corner 4 will have to give them some ultimatum such as, "our student athletes cannot be burdened by excessive travel demands.... yada yada" which also makes no sense because Orlando is readily accessible. WVU is more problematic in terms of travel to and from MTZ schools, but they have been a decade long member and can't just be kicked out without massive, massive compensation.

Ideally, ESPN can leverage the ACC network and streaming platforms, find exclusive tier 1 slots for Clemson/FSU games, and move east coast Big 12 schools over to the ACC, but frankly, they are already saturated with ACC/SEC games. They don't even need the midwest Big 12 teams so long as they secure rights to mountain and pacific schools in the potential Big 16/B1G 20.

I don't see any scenario where higher value ACC teams vote in B12 schools without a major pay increase or a path to early exit. Nor do I see any schools signing the ACC GoR given that conference's issues. So the odds are very slim.

A group of 4 teams "swallowing" a group of 12 teams is completely unprecedented.

(09-01-2022 08:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-01-2022 07:58 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  NO!!! There is no legal mechanism to push out the nBig 12. It's a gargantuan lawsuit that has no chance of losing.

Push out the nB12 in what sense? In my scenario, nB12 schools would leave the nB12 to join a conference formed by the four corners.

I get that you are trying hard to create a fantasy where UCF is left out.

But lets play the game for a little. So UCF, Cincy, and WVU split $640 million in exit fees and keep all the NCAA credits?? Actually add another $160 million from the OUT as well since they would be the only remainders to collect those checks as well.

Basically a lot of the threads on this board boil down to "can we please design a conference so we can cut out UC, UH and UCF". Alternatively, it's "The BXII (along with UC, UH and UCF) are going to get a $15M a year deal."

Credit for original thinking, but this seems highly unlikely given the B12 buyout and the reeling state the PAC would be in even trying to convince people of that move.

(09-01-2022 07:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  What I'm thinking is ... let's say that Stanford, Oregon, Cal and UW do leave for the B1G.

Now, the PAC is dead. So what next?

Sure, the nB12 could extend an invite to the four corners, who then join.

But what if the four corners say to themselves "we're more valuable than any four nB12 schools, so rather than us coming to them, they come to us, and we don't need all of them"?

Maybe a conference that looks like this ...

Arizona State
Arizona
Colorado
Utah
Kansas
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Oklahoma State
TCU
BYU
Iowa State


IMO, this conference, call it what you want - could have more media value than a 16-team nB12. And if so, I don't think nB12 exit fees are a significant barrier to entry. You don't let $80m stand in the way of a more-profitable conference.

No?

not happening

(09-01-2022 07:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  What I'm thinking is ... let's say that Stanford, Oregon, Cal and UW do leave for the B1G.

Now, the PAC is dead. So what next?

Sure, the nB12 could extend an invite to the four corners, who then join.

But what if the four corners say to themselves "we're more valuable than any four nB12 schools, so rather than us coming to them, they come to us, and we don't need all of them"?

Maybe a conference that looks like this ...

Arizona State
Arizona
Colorado
Utah
Kansas
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Oklahoma State
TCU
BYU
Iowa State


IMO, this conference, call it what you want - could have more media value than a 16-team nB12. And if so, I don't think nB12 exit fees are a significant barrier to entry. You don't let $80m stand in the way of a more-profitable conference.

No?

What about Washington State and Oregon State?

(09-01-2022 09:03 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  

(09-01-2022 07:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  What I'm thinking is ... let's say that Stanford, Oregon, Cal and UW do leave for the B1G.

Now, the PAC is dead. So what next?

Sure, the nB12 could extend an invite to the four corners, who then join.

But what if the four corners say to themselves "we're more valuable than any four nB12 schools, so rather than us coming to them, they come to us, and we don't need all of them"?

Maybe a conference that looks like this ...

Arizona State
Arizona
Colorado
Utah
Kansas
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Oklahoma State
TCU
BYU
Iowa State


IMO, this conference, call it what you want - could have more media value than a 16-team nB12. And if so, I don't think nB12 exit fees are a significant barrier to entry. You don't let $80m stand in the way of a more-profitable conference.

No?

What about Washington State and Oregon State?

Quo is saying the PAC died and the traditional Big12 members left the Big12 to join a new conference formed by the 4 Corners (Arizona, ASU, Utah, and Colorado)

Which is still preposterous.

Big 12 members:
- Lose their Texas and OU exit fees and GOR leverage
- Have to pay Exit fees of their own to WVU, Houston, Cincy, and UCF
- Lose the Eastern Time Zone

///

Even if we lived out the Quo's dream scenario...
WVU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF is a strong enough core to invite SMU, Memphis, ECU, and Tulane whose only purpose is to survive till 2030s for next round of realignment. This Big 12 Zombie Conference still has autonomy status, all the exit fees from most of the members leaving, and Texas/OU GOR leverage.

The simpler alternative is for the six remaining PAC schools, who have no exit fee, to join the nB12, which becomes the nB18. Then there are no moves left on the chessboard.

(09-01-2022 07:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  What I'm thinking is ... let's say that Stanford, Oregon, Cal and UW do leave for the B1G.

Now, the PAC is dead. So what next?

Sure, the nB12 could extend an invite to the four corners, who then join.

But what if the four corners say to themselves "we're more valuable than any four nB12 schools, so rather than us coming to them, they come to us, and we don't need all of them"?

Maybe a conference that looks like this ...

Arizona State
Arizona
Colorado
Utah
Kansas
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Oklahoma State
TCU
BYU
Iowa State


IMO, this conference, call it what you want - could have more media value than a 16-team nB12. And if so, I don't think nB12 exit fees are a significant barrier to entry. You don't let $80m stand in the way of a more-profitable conference.

No?

Lol, what next, asking whether the Mountain West poaches the PAC?

I think a better question is whether all 4 corners are “takes”.

(09-01-2022 07:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  What I'm thinking is ... let's say that Stanford, Oregon, Cal and UW do leave for the B1G.

Now, the PAC is dead. So what next?

Sure, the nB12 could extend an invite to the four corners, who then join.

But what if the four corners say to themselves "we're more valuable than any four nB12 schools, so rather than us coming to them, they come to us, and we don't need all of them"?

Maybe a conference that looks like this ...

Arizona State
Arizona
Colorado
Utah
Kansas
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Oklahoma State
TCU
BYU
Iowa State


IMO, this conference, call it what you want - could have more media value than a 16-team nB12. And if so, I don't think nB12 exit fees are a significant barrier to entry. You don't let $80m stand in the way of a more-profitable conference.

No?

Let's call it the Quo Vadis Dead-on-Arrival conference.