(09-15-2022 02:37 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  

(09-15-2022 01:54 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Vote 3rd party. Do it consistently enough plus voluntarily campaigning for 3rd party candidates will break the 2 party system if enough people do it.

In addition to the lack a feasibility for running a 3rd-party candidate in anything other than local elections (the Minnesota governor who was a former professional wrestler being one of the few exceptions), there also is the problem that typically only those on the right are principled enough to actually vote 3rd party. Those on the left will claim to do so, but the actual numbers are paltry (see Jill Stein, 2016).

We saw that in the 2013 governor's race in Virginia pitting Clinton flim-flam artist Terry McAuliffe versus right-wing crusader Ken Cuccinelli. Also running was Libertarian Robert Sarvis, who was a welcome alternative to both unworthy options from the main parties. And Sarvis did very well -- north of 10%. But when the tallies were parsed, it was clear that the Sarvis voters (me included) were pulled almost entirely from the Republican ranks. The Democrats talked as if they intended to vote their conscience, but they of course ended up voting their party.

It happened again in 2016 - - in which I voted for the pothead Johnson on the assumption that Trump was a certain loss. Happily for America, it is one of the many times that I was wrong.

You may as well just sit the next couple of votes out then unless you have finally figured out that the 3rd party candidate does nothing more than pull votes away from one of the other 2 parties - usually the Republican party. All of this has been very easy to see for quite some time. It's probably why Cheney is considering running on the 3rd party ticket in '24 - because she hates the air that Trump breathes. She knows that she doesn't even have the proverbial snowball's chance of winning. She just wants to (hopefully) put a dent in his votes in an attempt to keep him from winning. Basically, the same reason she's on the January 6th committee.

If you would rather the Republican win than the Democrat, then you need to vote accordingly. If you don't care much either way, then the 3rd party welcomes your vote. The way things have been going the past couple of years, it is hard for me to believe that any sane person would rather the Democrat win anything today, in November, or in November '24.

(09-15-2022 03:10 PM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  The way things have been going the past couple of years, it is hard for me to believe that any sane person would rather the Democrat win anything today, in November, or in November '24.

1. Define “sane”.

2. The official (approximate) % voting Dem. for president has been very consistent last 25 years:
1996 (Clinton/Dole) 49.2%
2000 (Bush/Gore) 48.4
2004 (Bush/Kerry) 48.3
2008 (Obama/McCain) 52.9
2012 (Obama/Romney) 51.1
2016 (Trump/Clinton) 48.2
2020 (Biden/Trump) 51.3

This data strongly suggests to me that it doesn’t matter what issues the candidates talk about, or what they do if they get elected. There is simply a portion of the American public that will vote D no matter what — with the floor of about 48% and the ceiling of about 51% (one-time exception for Obama/08). We will see if it changes in 2024.

(09-15-2022 03:10 PM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  It's probably why Cheney is considering running on the 3rd party ticket in '24 - because she hates the air that Trump breathes. She knows that she doesn't even have the proverbial snowball's chance of winning. She just wants to (hopefully) put a dent in his votes in an attempt to keep him from winning.

And it would be cheaper for dems to fund her to take republican votes from Trump than it would be to turn those into votes for their candidate.

(09-15-2022 06:14 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(09-15-2022 03:10 PM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  It's probably why Cheney is considering running on the 3rd party ticket in '24 - because she hates the air that Trump breathes. She knows that she doesn't even have the proverbial snowball's chance of winning. She just wants to (hopefully) put a dent in his votes in an attempt to keep him from winning.

And it would be cheaper for dems to fund her to take republican votes from Trump than it would be to turn those into votes for their candidate.

I don’t have any basis for knowing this beyond the dying follicles on the top of my head, but I have to think that any American who casts a ballot for Liz Cheney was NEVER going to vote for Donald Trump.

Her only function in 2024 will be, to paraphrase P.T. Barnum, performing the public service of taking money from donors who are too stupid to hold onto it.

How anyone could spend more than a minute working or shopping and not see or hear how desperate Americans are in general, as they’re being crushed by the worst inflation in 40 plus years. The general despair prevalent in our Nation today is something we haven’t seen since the Carter Administration.

The outlook for this fall and winter is bleak. Crime will continue to skyrocket as desperate people do desperate things to survive.

(09-15-2022 06:30 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  

(09-15-2022 06:14 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(09-15-2022 03:10 PM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  It's probably why Cheney is considering running on the 3rd party ticket in '24 - because she hates the air that Trump breathes. She knows that she doesn't even have the proverbial snowball's chance of winning. She just wants to (hopefully) put a dent in his votes in an attempt to keep him from winning.

And it would be cheaper for dems to fund her to take republican votes from Trump than it would be to turn those into votes for their candidate.

I don’t have any basis for knowing this beyond the dying follicles on the top of my head, but I have to think that any American who casts a ballot for Liz Cheney was NEVER going to vote for Donald Trump.

Her only function in 2024 will be, to paraphrase P.T. Barnum, performing the public service of taking money from donors who are too stupid to hold onto it.

She would take Dem. votes that would NEVER vote for Trump. Please run.

(09-15-2022 06:30 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  any American who casts a ballot for Liz Cheney was NEVER going to vote for Donald Trump.

This.

What is possible is that Democrats will put her name on the ballot in a few states which are not in play, and then give her some money to travel around the country making anti-Trump speeches that are too harsh or undignified for the Democrats’ own nominee to say out loud. She would enjoy that and the media would give her attention. If that happens, the GOP should be ready to give Tulsi Gabbard (or some other ex-Democrat gadfly) a similar role. But I have no doubt the GOP will be caught napping, as usual.

(09-15-2022 07:19 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  But I have no doubt the GOP will be caught napping, as usual.

And I am getting really damned tired of that.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend, but my enemies need better enemies.

(09-15-2022 08:48 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(09-15-2022 07:19 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  But I have no doubt the GOP will be caught napping, as usual.

And I am getting really damned tired of that.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend, but my enemies need better enemies.

While that’s true so far as it goes, I think it overlooks a much more fundamental problem. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, but our enemies have the unshakeable support of about 49% of the country. There’s simply no easy way to work around that, and nothing at the level of political tactics/ messaging/electioneering is going to change it.

(09-15-2022 09:01 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  The enemy of my enemy is my friend, but our enemies have the unshakeable support of about 49% of the country. There’s simply no easy way to work around that, and nothing at the level of political tactics/ messaging/electioneering is going to change it.

But that's largely because my enemies' enemies have allowed my enemies to define the issues and frame the debate, by refusing to take any initiative.

(09-15-2022 09:05 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  But that's largely because my enemies' enemies have allowed my enemies to define the issues and frame the debate, by refusing to take any initiative.

That could account a few campaigns here and there. It does not (IMHO) credibly account for the kind of data I posted earlier in the thread, showing the approx. national % that each Dem. nominee has gotten in the past 25-30 years. I think the problem is much, much deeper than the failure of politicians to “frame the debate” favorably to Republicans.

(09-15-2022 09:05 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(09-15-2022 09:01 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  The enemy of my enemy is my friend, but our enemies have the unshakeable support of about 49% of the country. There’s simply no easy way to work around that, and nothing at the level of political tactics/ messaging/electioneering is going to change it.

But that's largely because my enemies' enemies have allowed my enemies to define the issues and frame the debate, by refusing to take any initiative.

It's because the Dems control the mainstream media outlets that they (your enemy) are so easily able to "frame the debate" and control the narrative.

Outside of some wealthy people or a conglomerate of people working together going in and purchasing a controlling share of at least one of the main TV news outlets - ABC, CBS, or NBC - then nothing is likely to change on that front anytime soon.

(09-15-2022 09:18 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-15-2022 09:05 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  But that's largely because my enemies' enemies have allowed my enemies to define the issues and frame the debate, by refusing to take any initiative.

That could account a few campaigns here and there. It does not (IMHO) credibly account for the kind of data I posted earlier in the thread, showing the approx. national % that each Dem. nominee has gotten in the past 25-30 years. I think the problem is much, much deeper than the failure of politicians to “frame the debate” favorably to Republicans.

It’s because Dems have controlled the culture for the last 40+ years. They control the media, they control Hollywood and most importantly they control the classroom. Things are only going to get worse. California writ large

(09-15-2022 03:26 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-15-2022 03:10 PM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  The way things have been going the past couple of years, it is hard for me to believe that any sane person would rather the Democrat win anything today, in November, or in November '24.

1. Define “sane”.

2. The official (approximate) % voting Dem. for president has been very consistent last 25 years:
1996 (Clinton/Dole) 49.2%
2000 (Bush/Gore) 48.4
2004 (Bush/Kerry) 48.3
2008 (Obama/McCain) 52.9
2012 (Obama/Romney) 51.1
2016 (Trump/Clinton) 48.2
2020 (Biden/Trump) 51.3

This data strongly suggests to me that it doesn’t matter what issues the candidates talk about, or what they do if they get elected. There is simply a portion of the American public that will vote D no matter what — with the floor of about 48% and the ceiling of about 51% (one-time exception for Obama/08). We will see if it changes in 2024.

Agree. That's the insanity that I am referring to. According to what is happening today - rising crime numbers, open border policy that is allowing millions of illegals to enter the country, excessive inflation, higher gas/energy prices, higher taxes, etc., etc., etc. - it is insane that ANYONE with a lick of common sense would be saying, "Yes, please give me 4 more years of that". Naturally, that doesn't mean (and I wasn't saying) that they won't though. There is a whole lot of stupid running around out there everywhere you go these days.

(09-15-2022 01:04 PM)CLTPirate Wrote:  

(09-15-2022 09:41 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  The rich elite there can't indentify w/ Trumpism that's taken over the Republican Party.

So Republicans “pull yourself up by the bootstrap” mentality is now the party of the poor and workers?

Unfortunately, this is the NEW REALITY.

Dems have become the party of Elites but still are crafty enough to fool their servants to stay servient. Funny how using propaganda keeps folks in their place and yet believing they are doing better.

(09-15-2022 07:15 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  How anyone could spend more than a minute working or shopping and not see or hear how desperate Americans are in general, as they’re being crushed by the worst inflation in 40 plus years. The general despair prevalent in our Nation today is something we haven’t seen since the Carter Administration.

The outlook for this fall and winter is bleak. Crime will continue to skyrocket as desperate people do desperate things to survive.

Spot on. I can't see how anyone wants more of the same

(09-15-2022 10:12 PM)BlueDragon Wrote:  

(09-15-2022 07:15 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  How anyone could spend more than a minute working or shopping and not see or hear how desperate Americans are in general, as they’re being crushed by the worst inflation in 40 plus years. The general despair prevalent in our Nation today is something we haven’t seen since the Carter Administration.

The outlook for this fall and winter is bleak. Crime will continue to skyrocket as desperate people do desperate things to survive.

Spot on. I can't see how anyone wants more of the same

They may not *want* it, BD. But the question is, will they *vote* for it? I predict they will. Not everyone, of course. And not even a majority. But enough to make a difference.

By any standard political criteria, the electoral verdict this year really ought be a political annihilation for the Dems like we haven’t seen since 1994 or even farther back than that. And yet it’s shaping up to be just a standard, garden-variety midterm — some significant losses for the party in power, but nothing they can’t regain 2 or 4 years down the road. I know some will blame the Republicans for that result. I would look instead to the voters.

(09-15-2022 11:09 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-15-2022 10:12 PM)BlueDragon Wrote:  

(09-15-2022 07:15 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  How anyone could spend more than a minute working or shopping and not see or hear how desperate Americans are in general, as they’re being crushed by the worst inflation in 40 plus years. The general despair prevalent in our Nation today is something we haven’t seen since the Carter Administration.

The outlook for this fall and winter is bleak. Crime will continue to skyrocket as desperate people do desperate things to survive.

Spot on. I can't see how anyone wants more of the same

They may not *want* it, BD. But the question is, will they *vote* for it? I predict they will. Not everyone, of course. And not even a majority. But enough to make a difference.

By any standard political criteria, the electoral verdict this year really ought be a political annihilation for the Dems like we haven’t seen since 1994 or even farther back than that. And yet it’s shaping up to be just a standard, garden-variety midterm — some significant losses for the party in power, but nothing they can’t regain 2 or 4 years down the road. I know some will blame the Republicans for that result. I would look instead to the voters.

You need look no further than 2 sources.
1. Two generations raised in a very leftist indoctrination in grade school and college.
2. The corporate PAC money which infiltrates and dilutes the right and which floods the public with centrist rhetoric where needed for Dem candidates, and far left rhetoric in deep blue corporately controlled states.

So, their base is growing between education and immigration and they syphon from moderates where needed and label the right as extreme and the networks they own trumpet the disinformation and squelch rebuttal.

What I don't understand is why the right knows this each cycle and does nothing to change it, which by practice indicates the insanity and apathy of the right and the continued lunacy and lies of the left. By making government contentious and divisive corporations in all of their unquestioned control and autocracy look good by comparison and therein resides the lure of fascism. Mussolini made the trains run on time, and Hitler put everyone to work. And that kind of control is extremely appealing amid anarchy, so much so that atrocities are overlooked. And this is what keeps me up considering my children's and grandchildren's futures.

Geez, guys, I’m usually the morose one in any crowd.

Yeah, America is on a very bad path. But we’re not dead yet. We’ve got plenty of fight left in us. Look, just for one example, to the brilliant move on the parts of Govs. Abbott and DeSantis to ship illegals into a variety of liberal enclaves, including Lord Obama’s very doorstep! The left will wail about cruelty, and there will be a pathetically stupid segment of the society that buys into it. But not most of the population, particularly not when people are having trouble just paying for groceries. To quote Lincoln (I think), you cannot fool all of the people all of people all of the time.

The progressive movement knows this and is desperate. Thus the raid on Mar-a-Lago. The right now has countless opportunities to turn this tide. Will it make mistakes in doing so? Of course. Lots of them. But in the end I see us righting our listing ship of state. And I think we are on the verge of making that happen.

Let me go now out of character for one final point. When it comes to taking heart, there is no one better suited for delivering that message than Donald Trump. For all his many faults, he never gives up. It is the main (and perhaps only) quality in him that the left truly fears. We as a nation need to tap into that never-quit quality of Donald Trump, and fight back against the anti-American progressives.

Will it happen all at once? Of course not. We may even lose the coming midterms. But if Donald Trump knows anything, he knows how to spot a winner. The fact that he has hitched his self-centered wagon to the pro-American right is a pretty clear indication that we are ultimately on the winning side.

(09-16-2022 05:02 AM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  Geez, guys, I’m usually the morose one in any crowd.

I have believed America was on a downward trajectory for about 25 years now. I don’t wish for that, but that’s just honestly how I see it.

Quote:you cannot fool all of the people all of people all of the time.

I agree. But you can fool a plurality of the people a majority of the time. Team Blue has shown remarkable skill in doing so for the past 30 years.

Quote:in the end I see us righting our listing ship of state. And I think we are on the verge of making that happen.

I can’t quite share your optimism. But here’s hoping.

Quote:The fact that [Trump] has hitched his self-centered wagon to the pro-American right is a pretty clear indication that we are ultimately on the winning side.

It’s an indication that Trump believes it. We shall see if his instincts are correct. But I do very much agree with you that Trump’s never-say-die attitude is his most appealing political trait.