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Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
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green Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
you’re a good guy, TerryD ...

I DON’T CARE WHAT THEY SAY
04-25-2022 10:47 PM
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green Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-25-2022 10:41 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(04-25-2022 09:49 PM)green Wrote:  
(04-25-2022 08:49 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Jack knows that ND has to join the Big Ten in full to play Tier One college football in the P2 future, breakaway or not.

Everything not in the Big Ten or SEC will be considered Tier Two football, a step down.

The money disparity between the two will determine the tiers.

He is letting the ND fan base know this. That was who his audience was. He wasn't just spewing hot air to hear himself talk.

ND has to decide which way to go.

The administration will lean towards the Tier Two academic side, the big donors, alumni and fan base will push hard to keep ND football at Tier One.

ND may or may not have enough clout if in Tier Two to remain a football independent and cut some kind of deal for the rest. If in Tier One, its all in.

My guess is that ND will re-sign with NBC for a five year deal, let the dust settle and will make a move around 2030, if necessary.

Which side wins? Jack is just teeing this up with his statements. I don't think that debate has even begun at ND.

I think the side that wants ND to stay with Tier One football will win. Time will tell.

I agree that events may well force ND football to join a conference. I just think that, if so, it is more likely to be the Big Ten than the ACC.

If ND has to sell its independence, I don't think it will go to the lowest bidder and not for Tier Two status.

As much as I hate the idea, I think ND moves to join the Big Ten in full around 2030 and challenges/pays off the GOR. Just my prediction.



https://twitter.com/dennisdoddcbs/status...6201482241

you resemble a doomsday cultist ...
peddling fright ...
what will world look like in 2035 ...
let it play out ...

THAT’S WHERE ALL THE FUN IS


Just the facts.

DRAGNET

COMEDY GOLD
(This post was last modified: 04-25-2022 11:19 PM by green.)
04-25-2022 11:13 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-25-2022 11:13 PM)green Wrote:  
(04-25-2022 10:41 PM)TerryD Wrote:  
(04-25-2022 09:49 PM)green Wrote:  
(04-25-2022 08:49 PM)TerryD Wrote:  Jack knows that ND has to join the Big Ten in full to play Tier One college football in the P2 future, breakaway or not.

Everything not in the Big Ten or SEC will be considered Tier Two football, a step down.

The money disparity between the two will determine the tiers.

He is letting the ND fan base know this. That was who his audience was. He wasn't just spewing hot air to hear himself talk.

ND has to decide which way to go.

The administration will lean towards the Tier Two academic side, the big donors, alumni and fan base will push hard to keep ND football at Tier One.

ND may or may not have enough clout if in Tier Two to remain a football independent and cut some kind of deal for the rest. If in Tier One, its all in.

My guess is that ND will re-sign with NBC for a five year deal, let the dust settle and will make a move around 2030, if necessary.

Which side wins? Jack is just teeing this up with his statements. I don't think that debate has even begun at ND.

I think the side that wants ND to stay with Tier One football will win. Time will tell.

I agree that events may well force ND football to join a conference. I just think that, if so, it is more likely to be the Big Ten than the ACC.

If ND has to sell its independence, I don't think it will go to the lowest bidder and not for Tier Two status.

As much as I hate the idea, I think ND moves to join the Big Ten in full around 2030 and challenges/pays off the GOR. Just my prediction.



https://twitter.com/dennisdoddcbs/status...6201482241

you resemble a doomsday cultist ...
peddling fright ...
what will world look like in 2035 ...
let it play out ...

THAT’S WHERE ALL THE FUN IS


Just the facts.

DRAGNET

COMEDY GOLD

Lawyers are trained to refrain from speaking in absolutes and hedge their bets, but in college football, the "facts" are these:

--The Big Ten and SEC will earn about $40-50 million a year more than the ACC, Pac 12 and Big 12.

--That income disparity will separate those two conferences from the rest of the pack. Those other conferences have few options, if any, to try to close that gap.

--The top two earning conferences will attract the best recruits and coaches and build the best facilities with that extra $$$.

--Those two conferences may or may not break away from the NCAA, but will become Tier One football because they will almost lap the rest in revenues.

--The ACC, Big 12 and Pac 12 will form, with others, Tier Two football.

--ND has to decide whether it wants to be a Tier One football program or drop down/be relegated to Tier Two. Did it just spend $440 million dollars to renovate its football stadium to play Tier Two football?

--In a P5 world, ND can stay indy in football and play one conference off against another. It is in Tier One now. In a P2 world, that flexibility is much more limited.

--It makes little business sense for ND to surrender independence for $40-50 million a year and be relegated/self-demoted to Tier Two when, if necessary, it can make double that every year and be in Tier One.

--What business purpose will it serve for ND to join the ACC in football, an ACC that may be picked apart in 2036 (or before then) and will languish in Tier Two status with a huge annual revenue deficit until then or even after that date? This, and having to surrender football independence to "get" there?

--What logical reason exists for ND football to entangle itself further with the ACC, extend the GOR and earn far less money as a full ACC conference member than a P2 one, all while stranded in Tier Two ??

--ND fans want the status quo forever, indy in football with its other sports wherever is best for it. However, that world is rapidly falling away. Choice time is approaching for ND.

--The administration may look favorably and wistfully at the Tier Two academic side, but do you really think that the ND donors, alumni and fan base will allow ND to voluntarily drop out of Tier One football ?

--They stopped ND from joining the Big Ten in 1999. They will raise holy hell to keep ND football in Tier One.


FULL STOP

P.S. If Miami was in ND's position and could receive an SEC or Big Ten invitation and could join a Tier One conference for about double the payout, would it say "No" and relegate itself to Tier Two football or would it head out the door like it did in 2003?
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2022 06:24 AM by TerryD.)
04-26-2022 05:32 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-25-2022 10:47 PM)green Wrote:  you’re a good guy, TerryD ...

I DON’T CARE WHAT THEY SAY



I already knew that for a long time.

THANKS BUT NO THANKS
04-26-2022 05:34 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
In 1975, the top 75 football playing schools tried to split and form 1-A football and they were fought all along the way and it ended up being somewhere over 100. There hasn’t been much change in the number of schools that can compete at that level. The revenue will be there to pay that many schools, so unless the SEC/Big 10 have about 37 schools in them, there will be more than two conferences in tier 1.

How is the revenue gap affecting performance? The SEC got there before they were making boatloads. They did it by hiring Nick Saban lol. Clemson got there by hiring Dabo, who still hasn’t been poached by the SEC Midas Men. The revenue isn’t spilling over into basketball since the ACC had two teams in the FF, Big East one, and the champ was from the Big XII.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois, and countless other wheelbarrows of cash still STINK on the field.

The irony is, Notre Dame probably had the weight to convince Texas to join the ACC with them. It would have been Notre Dame’s ideal conference with academic minded schools up and down the east coast into Texas.
04-26-2022 07:18 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 07:18 AM)esayem Wrote:  The irony is, Notre Dame probably had the weight to convince Texas to join the ACC with them. It would have been Notre Dame’s ideal conference with academic minded schools up and down the east coast into Texas.

Let me start by saying Notre Dame owes nothing to the ACC. If ACC schools can't get out of their own way to fix the conference they themselves built, why would anyone want to tie his future to that mess?

That said, Notre Dame has been very short-sighted in my opinion, which has allowed the Big Ten to play them like a drum.

In the first year of my blog (2012!), I wrote an article about the difference between independence and self-determination called "Why Notre Dame should join a conference". In it, I tried to make the point that
"Until now the Fighting Irish have enjoyed their football independence, but that could end at any time. If they are pro-active they can choose which conference to join, but if they wait they may lose both their independence and their self-determination as well. "

Have the Irish waited too long already? Are they doomed to lose both their independence AND their freedom to choose which conference? If Terry is correct, it's starting to look that way.

While the ACC was focused on giving Notre Dame a nice home, the Big Ten planned to raise the rent until they could no longer afford to live there.
04-26-2022 07:54 AM
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green Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 05:32 AM)TerryD Wrote:  --ND fans want the status quo forever, indy in football with its other sports wherever is best for it. However, that world is rapidly falling away. Choice time is approaching for ND.

perhaps ...
swarbrick preps fan base for surprise move ...
sooner rather than later ...

WHILE THERE’S STILL TIME
04-26-2022 08:37 AM
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green Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 05:32 AM)TerryD Wrote:  --The top two earning conferences will attract the best recruits and coaches and build the best facilities with that extra $$$.



https://twitter.com/CaneSport/status/151...8494190592

MULTIPLE INCOME STREAMS
04-26-2022 09:01 AM
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Post: #29
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-25-2022 04:07 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Maybe Swarbrick is simply expressing some frustrations and communicating expectations to Irish boosters. Media revenues of the B1G and SEC are climbing rapidly, while ND’s chosen path (football independence and proprietary media deal) isn’t as lucrative.

With regards to many schools wanting to get out of their conference, that comment doesn’t help calm any nerves.

Is any of this news? It's been more or less common knowledge on these boards that another round of realignment is coming ~early 2030s
04-26-2022 09:01 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
Gobbler, I never said ND owes the ACC. I was pointing out the very thing your blog did about self determination. I don’t think it’s too late, unlike the pessimists. The ACC has great bones and Notre Dame joining full time keeps the conference in “tier 1” or whatever you want to call it.

ND as an institution has more in common with the ACC than any other conference and there is a reason they are here. It isn’t just bowl bids.
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2022 09:04 AM by esayem.)
04-26-2022 09:02 AM
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green Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 05:32 AM)TerryD Wrote:  P.S. If Miami was in ND's position and could receive an SEC or Big Ten invitation



https://twitter.com/monstaX/status/1518241976373723137

I surmise ...
we’ll be fine ...

VIE
04-26-2022 09:07 AM
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Post: #32
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 09:02 AM)esayem Wrote:  Gobbler, I never said ND owes the ACC. I was pointing out the very thing your blog did about self determination. I don’t think it’s too late, unlike the pessimists. The ACC has great bones and Notre Dame joining full time keeps the conference in “tier 1” or whatever you want to call it.

ND as an institution has more in common with the ACC than any other conference and there is a reason they are here. It isn’t just bowl bids.

I like the ACC, but ND will not join in full. We are waiting till the bitter end, and then we will look for the big fat check.
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2022 09:11 AM by domer1978.)
04-26-2022 09:10 AM
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green Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 09:10 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  
(04-26-2022 09:02 AM)esayem Wrote:  Gobbler, I never said ND owes the ACC. I was pointing out the very thing your blog did about self determination. I don’t think it’s too late, unlike the pessimists. The ACC has great bones and Notre Dame joining full time keeps the conference in “tier 1” or whatever you want to call it.

ND as an institution has more in common with the ACC than any other conference and there is a reason they are here. It isn’t just bowl bids.

I like the ACC, but ND will not join in full. We are waiting till the bitter end, and then we will look for the big fat check.

you’re not the decider, domer ...
and I like you ...

BITTERENDER
04-26-2022 09:21 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 07:54 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(04-26-2022 07:18 AM)esayem Wrote:  The irony is, Notre Dame probably had the weight to convince Texas to join the ACC with them. It would have been Notre Dame’s ideal conference with academic minded schools up and down the east coast into Texas.

Let me start by saying Notre Dame owes nothing to the ACC. If ACC schools can't get out of their own way to fix the conference they themselves built, why would anyone want to tie his future to that mess?

That said, Notre Dame has been very short-sighted in my opinion, which has allowed the Big Ten to play them like a drum.

In the first year of my blog (2012!), I wrote an article about the difference between independence and self-determination called "Why Notre Dame should join a conference". In it, I tried to make the point that
"Until now the Fighting Irish have enjoyed their football independence, but that could end at any time. If they are pro-active they can choose which conference to join, but if they wait they may lose both their independence and their self-determination as well. "

Have the Irish waited too long already? Are they doomed to lose both their independence AND their freedom to choose which conference? If Terry is correct, it's starting to look that way.

While the ACC was focused on giving Notre Dame a nice home, the Big Ten planned to raise the rent until they could no longer afford to live there.


IF ND has to give up its independence, does it really doesn't matter what composition of schools is in that conference ?

ND has little affinity for "like minded schools", some, but not as much as people may think when it comes to conference membership.

The ACC felt, wrongly, that if it added Pitt, Syracuse, BC, et al, that the conference would be "more attractive" in order to get ND football to join.

That went nowhere. Not requiring football to join is the main reason ND is in the ACC. Take that away and pay about half the amount as others? That is like selling ice to Eskimos.

ND has never had any interest in building or leading a conference.

It wants to stay a football independent.

If that is no longer feasible, then cashing in on its only opportunity to do so in giving up that independent status is more important that conference composition.

If ND has to sell off its independence, then the main issues are the price and the tier/status, not what particular grouping of schools is available.

If we are looking at a P2 Tier One and the rest in Tier Two, then there are only two options available to ND, join a Tier One conference or relegate itself to Tier Two.

Joining the ACC or Pac 12 or Big 12 or creating its own "ideal conference" from scratch (BTW, there is no "ideal" football conference for ND) would have done little to alter that reality and would have further ensnared ND football with the ACC (for now, football is not tied up with the ACC GOR, for instance---see NBC deal).

It will be a hard sell indeed to tell ND fans that football independence has to go, and oh by the way, this is so that ND can join a conference in the second tier making tens of millions of dollars a year less than two other ones.

ND doesn't want to give up its independence, but it certainly doesn't want to do so by accepting the lowest bidder.

I think that Texas to the ACC was always a pipe dream, ND or no ND. Texas and Oklahoma were never going to join the ACC, just like ND football is not.

Will the ND administration favor academics over Tier One status and $$$?

It would likely lean that way, uncomfortable as it has been for decades about football success overshadowing academics.

If ND floated the Tier Two academic balloon and received no backlash, I think that it would be happy to join that tier.

I just don't see the donors, alumni and fans letting that happen. I foresee a huge backlash and donor/fan revolt, just like in 1999 when ND rejected the Big Ten.

So, really, if we are talking about staying in big time football, the only real choices over independence are the SEC and Big Ten.

ND football joining the ACC simply makes little sense unless ND is voluntarily relegating itself and abandoning the top tier of college football.
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2022 11:23 AM by TerryD.)
04-26-2022 10:21 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 09:01 AM)green Wrote:  
(04-26-2022 05:32 AM)TerryD Wrote:  --The top two earning conferences will attract the best recruits and coaches and build the best facilities with that extra $$$.



https://twitter.com/CaneSport/status/151...8494190592

MULTIPLE INCOME STREAMS

Wake me up when that bridges the $40 million or more a year gap between the ACC payouts and that of the SEC and Big Ten.

(They will have these types of streams also)

PEANUTS.
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2022 10:27 AM by TerryD.)
04-26-2022 10:22 AM
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RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 09:02 AM)esayem Wrote:  Gobbler, I never said ND owes the ACC. I was pointing out the very thing your blog did about self determination. I don’t think it’s too late, unlike the pessimists. The ACC has great bones and Notre Dame joining full time keeps the conference in “tier 1” or whatever you want to call it.

ND as an institution has more in common with the ACC than any other conference and there is a reason they are here. It isn’t just bowl bids.

ND joining the ACC in football will do little to bridge the $$$$ gap between the ACC and the Big Ten/SEC.

It certainly will not raise the ACC payouts from $40 million a year to over $80 million or more per year.

ND joining the Big Ten will net the Irish lots of cash and Tier One status.


GAME OVER
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2022 10:37 AM by TerryD.)
04-26-2022 10:23 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 09:07 AM)green Wrote:  
(04-26-2022 05:32 AM)TerryD Wrote:  P.S. If Miami was in ND's position and could receive an SEC or Big Ten invitation



https://twitter.com/monstaX/status/1518241976373723137

I surmise ...
we’ll be fine ...

VIE

OBJECTION. ANSWER NOT RELATIVE TO THE QUESTION.
04-26-2022 10:24 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 10:23 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(04-26-2022 09:02 AM)esayem Wrote:  Gobbler, I never said ND owes the ACC. I was pointing out the very thing your blog did about self determination. I don’t think it’s too late, unlike the pessimists. The ACC has great bones and Notre Dame joining full time keeps the conference in “tier 1” or whatever you want to call it.

ND as an institution has more in common with the ACC than any other conference and there is a reason they are here. It isn’t just bowl bids.

ND joining the ACC in football will do little to bridge the $$$$ gap between the ACC and the Big Ten/SEC.

It certainly will not raise the ACC payouts from $40 million a year to over $80 million or more per year.

ND joining the Big Ten will net the Irish lots of cash and Tier One status.


GAME OVER

are you privy to aforementioned contracts or ongoing negotiations ...

JUST SAYIN’
04-26-2022 10:44 AM
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Post: #39
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 10:44 AM)green Wrote:  
(04-26-2022 10:23 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(04-26-2022 09:02 AM)esayem Wrote:  Gobbler, I never said ND owes the ACC. I was pointing out the very thing your blog did about self determination. I don’t think it’s too late, unlike the pessimists. The ACC has great bones and Notre Dame joining full time keeps the conference in “tier 1” or whatever you want to call it.

ND as an institution has more in common with the ACC than any other conference and there is a reason they are here. It isn’t just bowl bids.

ND joining the ACC in football will do little to bridge the $$$$ gap between the ACC and the Big Ten/SEC.

It certainly will not raise the ACC payouts from $40 million a year to over $80 million or more per year.

ND joining the Big Ten will net the Irish lots of cash and Tier One status.


GAME OVER

are you privy to aforementioned contracts or ongoing negotiations ...

JUST SAYIN’
ND may be worth a lot, but not nearly enough to close the gap of 20-30-40-50 million dollars.
04-26-2022 10:52 AM
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Post: #40
RE: Is ND getting ready for a divorce?
(04-26-2022 10:23 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(04-26-2022 09:02 AM)esayem Wrote:  Gobbler, I never said ND owes the ACC. I was pointing out the very thing your blog did about self determination. I don’t think it’s too late, unlike the pessimists. The ACC has great bones and Notre Dame joining full time keeps the conference in “tier 1” or whatever you want to call it.

ND as an institution has more in common with the ACC than any other conference and there is a reason they are here. It isn’t just bowl bids.

ND joining the ACC in football will do little to bridge the $$$$ gap between the ACC and the Big Ten/SEC.

It certainly will not raise the ACC payouts from $40 million a year to over $80 million or more per year.

ND joining the Big Ten will net the Irish lots of cash and Tier One status.


GAME OVER

That’s fine, but ND is not Independent. They have to play five ACC teams each season. They are pseudo-Independent.
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2022 11:02 AM by esayem.)
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